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Will diesel car sales rebound in Europe?

  • Market: Fertilizers
  • 17/10/19

The first round of CO2 targets for light vehicles in the EU established fleet average limits of 130g CO2/km in 2015, and 95g CO2/km in 2021.

While the first was easily met — 2015 average CO2 emissions were 119.5g CO2/km — the 2021 target is far from being achieved, despite the severe penalties involved. In fact, after reaching a low of 118.1g CO2/km in 2016, average emissions increased two years in a row and reached 120.4g CO2/km in 2018. This is a direct consequence of 'Dieselgate', which prompted bans or restrictions on older diesel cars in some cities and a shift in public opinion against diesel. With a charging infrastructure for electric cars still being developed and battery costs remaining prohibitive in most segments, drivers have been switching from diesel to petrol vehicles, leading to higher average CO2 emissions.

Despite a continuous fall in diesel share of new car sales in the EU since the scandal, different trends have recently been observed in some countries. An interesting case is Germany, where the diesel share has been dropping since mid-2016, with an acceleration in 2017 when cities started to take action to restrict diesel car circulation. After some slowdown in the pace of decline in 2018, the diesel share stabilised and then started to increase in the first half of 2019 (See Figure 1).

One might conclude that the worst for diesel has now come to pass, and that the share of diesel will continue to increase, particularly on the road to the 2021 targets. But recent car sales have been impacted by another important factor: the transition from NEDC to WLTP emissions testing cycles in September 2018. As explained by a recent article from the International Council on Clean Transportation, VW cars took longer to get type approved under the new test procedure. Towards the end of the year, diesel car certification was finalised and sales bounced back quickly, but gasoline cars were still uncertified. Therefore, the share of diesel cars looked more stable in countries where VW and Audi cars have a stronger presence, particularly in Germany and Austria (See Figure 2).

If diesel cars are important for manufacturers to reach the 95g CO2/km target in 2021, the prospects for all internal combustion engines look uncertain in the wake of the future CO2 targets. In December 2018, the EU confirmed a 15% reduction target for 2025 based on a 2021 WLTP baseline and a 37.5% reduction for 2030.

To meet these limits, car manufacturers will have no option but to electrify faster. Renault and Nissan, which were among the first to establish ambitious electric vehicle (EV) penetration targets, still aim for a 20-30% share of electric cars by 2025. GM and Toyota have similar targets, whereas VW is targeting a 40% share of global sales by 2030.

The longer-term future of diesel cars in Europe is therefore lacklustre. Most industry observers expect that the diesel car share will continue to drop in Europe, from 30% in 2019 to 10% or lower in 2030. The pace of this decline will be dictated by battery costs and EV incentives, but also by how well gasoline, diesel and hybrid cars adapt to the second and final round of real-world driving standards.

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22/11/24

Bangladesh issues new phosphate tenders

Bangladesh issues new phosphate tenders

London, 22 November (Argus) — Bangladesh's ministry of agriculture has issued a new private-sector tender to buy DAP and TSP, closing on 27 November. The ministry did not specify the total quantities sought but specified that each private importer can offer a maximum of 30,000t of TSP and 40,000t of DAP in the tender. The cargoes offered under the tender are to be shipped by 30 December, and nominated importers must issue letters of credit within seven working days of receiving the work order. The ministry closed a private-sector tender to buy DAP and TSP on 18 November and has probably awarded at least 40,000t of Moroccan DAP at $678.40/t cfr in the tender. It had received offers for 120,000t of DAP at prices ranging from $678.40-711.00/t cfr and 113,000t of TSP at prices ranging from $561.90-585.00/t cfr. BCIC seeks 10,000t of phosphoric acid in tender Bangladeshi state-owned importer BCIC has issued a fresh tender to buy 10,000t of phosphoric acid containing 52-54pc P2O5, closing on 8 January. It wants the cargo to be shipped within 30 days of issuing the letter of credit for delivery to Chattogram. Trading firm Sun International submitted the only offer in BCIC's 20 November tender for 20,000t of the same grade of acid. It offered South African or Chinese acid at $620.87/t cfr (equivalent to $1,150-1,194/t P2O5 cfr), or $530.87/t fob. In its 18 November tender to buy 10,000t of 52-54pc P2O5 acid, BCIC received offers of $1,163-1,213/t P2O5 cfr equivalent. By Tom Hampson Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Indian NP/NPK stocks drop to below 3mn t


21/11/24
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21/11/24

Indian NP/NPK stocks drop to below 3mn t

London, 21 November (Argus) — India's domestic sales of NP/NPK fertilizers have continued to outpace both production and imports, leaving stocks below 3mn t for the first time since February 2023. Domestic sales of NP/NPK under the country's direct benefit transfer system amounted to 1.47mn t in October, up by 45pc on a year earlier. Sales from April-October — the first seven months of India's 2024-25 agricultural year — totalled 8.72mn t, up by 23pc on the year. Domestic NP/NPK production rose by 15pc on the year to 867,900t last month, putting April-October output at about 6.25mn t, up by 11pc on the year. NP/NPK imports in October amounted to 183,000t, up by 51pc on October last year. April-October imports amounted to 1.28mn t, down by 10pc year on year. The data imply total NP/NPK stocks in India of about 2.93mn t at the end of October, down by 12pc on the month and down by 15pc on the year. By Nykole King Indian NP-NPK stockbuild mn t Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Elevated nitrate levels found in Iowa water: EPA


20/11/24
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20/11/24

Elevated nitrate levels found in Iowa water: EPA

Houston, 20 November (Argus) — The Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) added seven Iowa water segments to its impaired US waters list, saying they are all polluted with nitrate, possibly stemming from nitrogen fertilizer runoff. The EPA added these seven water segments to the list of impaired waters on 12 November, determining each was laden with nitrate pollution. The EPA invoked water restoration plans in partnership with the Iowa Department of Natural Resources (DNR). This is in addition to the 712 water segments in Iowa that are already on the state's list of water segments that need a restoration plan under the Clean Water Act, according to the EPA. The largest contributor to nitrate pollution is manure and commercial fertilizer that runs off farm fields, according Pam Taylor, director of the Iowa Sierra Club Chapter. Nearly 85pc of land in Iowa is farmland, using nearly 149 lbs of nitrogen fertilizer per acre annually,the US Department of Agriculture said. The Iowa DNR initially submitted a list of water segments that need restoration attention on 9 May, which was only partially approved by the EPA. This triggered the agency to place these additional water segments on public notice until 12 December. Once that date has passed, the EPA can implement a restoration plan in partnership with the Iowa DNR. The Iowa Chapter of the Sierra Club is in support of the EPA's decision. It alleged that the DNR purposefully used an incorrect method to determine nitrate pollution, which may have enabled the DNR to excuse certain water segments from the list of impaired bodies. Separately, a letter was also sent to the EPA on 16 April by several Iowa agencies requesting the EPA apply its emergency powers to address nitrate groundwater contamination in northeastern Iowa. By Meghan Yoyotte Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Cameroon's CNPC-C issues NPK tender to buy


20/11/24
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20/11/24

Cameroon's CNPC-C issues NPK tender to buy

London, 20 November (Argus) — The national confederation of cotton producers (CNPC-C) has issued a tender to purchase 32,000t of complex fertilizers, closing on 9 December. The CNPC-C requests 16,000t of 22-23-15+5S+1B and 16,000t of 15-20-15+5S+1B, both in 50kg bags, for delivery on an ex-works basis in Douala on or before 28 February. CNPC-C had opened offers against its 24 October tender to buy 45,000t of complex fertilizers and 12,000t of urea. But there were no valid offers for the 16,000t of 22-23-15+5S+1B it requested. It received five valid offers against its request for 29,000t of 14-23-14+5S+1B or 15-20-15+5S+1B, but is now seeking more competitive offers under the fresh tender. By Nykole King Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Major amsul producers increase pricing for 1Q


19/11/24
News
19/11/24

Major amsul producers increase pricing for 1Q

Houston, 19 November (Argus) — US ammonium sulfate producers Interoceanic Corporation (IOC) and AdvanSix have increased prices for first-quarter deliveries. IOC increased its first-quarter offers by $20-35/st at all distribution points except for its Houston plant , which will remain at $345/st fob. The low end of the range offered was $335/st fob at Nola, while the high end was $405/st rail delivered for Northern Plains. AdvanSix increased amsul prices by $25/st for all locations for first-quarter delivery. The Hopewell, Virginia, value rose to $355/st fob. Upper Mississippi River warehouses increased to $385/st fob, while Ohio River and Granite City, Illinois, prices increased to $380/st fob. Inland warehouses and rail quotes will maintain traditional premiums over river locations, AdvanSix said. Amsul values continue to rise into the winter pre-pay season because of short domestic supply, driven by high input costs inflating market values. By Meghan Yoyotte IOC's Ammonium Sulfate Prices for 1Q $/st Location Value Nola Barge $335/st FOB Houston $345/st St Louis and Delta Terminals $380/st Upper Mississippi River Terminals $385/st Illinois River Terminals $385/st Ohio River Terminals $380/st FOB Sioux City/Omaha/Casselton, ND $405/st Rail Delivered Northern Plains $405/st — IOC AdvanSix's Amsul prices for 1Q $/st Location Value FOB Hopewell, VA $355/st Upper Mississippi River $385/st Ohio River/Granite City, IL $380/st — AdvanSix Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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