US steel tariff hike irrelevant to Turkish scrap price

Market: Metals
18/10/19

The continued rise in the Turkish ferrous scrap import price this week following the US increase of tariffs on steel imports from Turkey has highlighted the extent to which the US has become a marginal export market for Turkish rebar producers.

US president Donald Trump on 14 October raised the US tariff on Turkish steel imports back to 50pc, double the prior rate of 25pc, as part of a series of sanctions in response to Turkey's military offensive in northern Syria.

The move triggered widespread expectation, particularly in Asia-Pacific, that limiting Turkey's ability to sell steel to the US would make a sizeable dent in Turkish steel export volumes and demand for scrap, and consequently send the Turkish scrap import price back downward.

Buyers in Taiwan, India and Pakistan were all heard to have cited the higher Turkish steel import tariff as a pressuring factor on global scrap prices this week.

But a surge of Turkish deals were subsequently concluded on 16-18 October at higher prices than previous transactions. The Argus HMS 1/2 80:20 cfr Turkey assessment rose to $244.30/t today, up by $8/t from when Trump announced the new higher Turkey steel tariff.

The absence of a negative effect on the scrap price from the higher US import tariffs should not have come as a surprise to any observer of Turkey's rebar sales to the US, both this year and over the past three years.

Turkish rebar exports to the US have collapsed this year, falling to just 38,327t in the January-August period, official trade data show. This is barely 10pc of the 305,000t exported from Turkey to the US over the same period in 2018.

Part of that collapse can be attributed to the fact that the US Section 232 tariff on Turkish steel imports was increased to 50pc from 25pc in August 2018, before falling back to 25pc in May ahead of the most recent re-escalation.

But the move back to 25pc in May did not bring any notable surge in Turkish rebar shipments to the US. Turkey exported approximately 20,000t of rebar to the US in the May-August period, trade data show, accounting for just 0.96pc of the 2.08mn t total Turkish rebar exports during that time.

Exports to the US did pick up slightly in August to 19,840t and Argus has tracked a minimum of 38,000t shipped to the US since the beginning of September, but these figures still account for only a tiny percentage of overall Turkish rebar exports.

The reason that Turkish rebar exports to the US did not recover even when the Section 232 tariff dropped to 25pc in May is simple: the tariff is still prohibitively high for Turkish mills to sell to the US except in circumstances where seaborne scrap and rebar prices fall extremely low relative to the US domestic steel and scrap market.

Additionally, the Section 232 tariff is levied on top of existing countervailing and anti-dumping duties that the US applied to the largest Turkish exporters to the country in 2017. Turkish steelmakers are subject to combined anti-dumping (AD) and countervailing (CV) duties of 8-21.6pc even before the main 232 tariff is taken into consideration.

So the viability of export at a 25pc or 50pc Section 232 tariff is not markedly different. Turkish steelmakers might have had a greater opportunity to export with a 25pc tariff in places were the US steel market is still running as hot as it was last year, but that boom has sharply reversed this year.

The initial implementation of AD and CV duties in 2017 already significantly reduced Turkish rebar exports to the US prior to the introduction of the Section 232 tariff. Turkey exported 1.38mn t to the US in 2016, the last year before major trade measures were introduced. In 2017, that total more than halved to 664,000t, before halving again to 306,000t in 2018.

The US was Turkey's largest rebar export market in 2015, accounting for 19.7pc of total exports. By 2017, it was the third-largest export market, falling to 11.74pc of all exports, and in 2018, its share had fallen to 4.93pc. Exports to the US in January-August this year account for just 1pc of all Turkish overseas rebar sales.

In this context, removal of any lingering access to the US is of virtually no consequence to Turkish rebar producers, as they have now long since abandoned it as a core export destination. That the higher tariff announced this week could have a material impact on scrap prices is an outdated view of Turkey's export environment.

Related news posts

Argus illuminates the markets by putting a lens on the areas that matter most to you. The market news and commentary we publish reveals vital insights that enable you to make stronger, well-informed decisions. Explore a selection of news stories related to this one.

News

15/05/25

Pakistan container scrap trade pressured by surcharges

London, 15 May (Argus) — Ferrous scrap suppliers are facing higher costs from new surcharges announced by major container shipping firms on trading routes to Pakistan, following recent geopolitical tensions in the region. Shipping lines have announced imminent emergency operational cost recovery surcharges on containers for trading routes to and from Pakistan following the recent escalation in tensions between the country and India. This resulted in days of fighting, with India launching attacks on Pakistan and Pakistan-administered Kashmir in retaliation for an April terrorist attack in Kashmir. India-Pakistan relations have stabilised after the countries agreed a tentative ceasefire on 10 May , but concerns remain over security in the region. Major global container shipping line Maersk has imposed charges of $300/container to Pakistan from every country, excluding those in Asia-Pacific, starting from 21 May or 13 June, depending on the country. Surcharges of $300-500/container have been implemented on trade from Pakistan. Other lines, including MSC, Hapag-Lloyd and CMA CGM, have announced surcharges on imports and exports ranging from $300-800/container, depending on line, route and trade direction, which will start coming into effect from mid-May for most regions, with those for other regions such as North America coming into effect in the first half of June. The Pakistan and Indian governments at the start of May imposed shipping orders banning merchant vessels bearing the other country's flag from stopping at their ports. And shipping lines changed trading routes across the region following the outbreak of hostilities and prior to the ceasefire announcement. But Maersk said this week it is "witnessing a gradual return to normalcy" at port operations in India and Pakistan, and will continue to monitor the situation closely. Indian imports/exports can remain on board through Pakistan ports, while in India, Pakistan imports are allowed to transit through Indian ports but not exports, the firm said earlier this week. Any increase to freight costs is likely to further limit exporters' interest in selling to the region, which has already slowed significantly, market sources said. As a result, some container exporters and freight forwarders do not expect the surcharges to remain in place. Containerised scrap suppliers said prices to Pakistan would need to rise by around $10/t to absorb the additional surcharges, but many noted difficulties, with buyers in the country not lifting their bids and their own purchasing prices upstream remaining firm. The last containerised shredded scrap sales to the south of Pakistan were reported in the $370-375/t range, which buyers are heard to be continuing to target. But domestic prices for shredded scrap in key supply regions remain firm, with inland yards not willing to accept lower prices sought by suppliers. Exporters would need one of the two price points to move to make trade with Pakistan workable. By Corey Aunger and Brad MacAulay Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Find out more

News

EU stainless prices to continue to fall: Assofermet

15/05/25

News

15/05/25

EU stainless prices to continue to fall: Assofermet

London, 15 May (Argus) — An fall in European producers' cold-rolled stainless steel prices and input costs in the third quarter will make output more competitive against imports from Asia, including China and Indonesia, according to Alessandro Bettuzzi, sales director at Italian distributor Oiki Acciai Spa and co-ordinator of Italian steel and scrap association Assofermet's stainless steel division. On the sidelines of last week's Made in Steel event in Milan, Bettuzzi said high service centre stocks and weak demand in key sectors like automotive and household appliances are likely to mean a weak third quarter in Europe, particularly in Italy, with its many distribution centres. "I'm not positive for the next month," Bettuzzi told Argus . "This is because fundamentals are so weak, and prices of scrap nickel are falling, which will produce lower prices than today's level." A further fall in energy costs will also bring down prices, keeping imports at bay, he added. Following January-February's mostly stable prices in Europe, Bettuzzi said the cold-rolled flat product market fell by €100/t from mid-March. The downtrend will probably continue until July, he said, given the pattern of weakening demand over the past eight months. The Argus assessment for stainless steel 304 cold-rolled 2mm sheet delivered northwest Europe had risen to €2,655/t at the end of February from €2,500/t at the end of December, but had fallen to €2,525/t by the beginning of May. Traders surveyed by Argus see further declines, as mills focus on capacity utilisation and filling order books. "The auto and appliances industries at this moment are going through a major lull," Bettuzzi said. "These sectors are very important to absorb stainless steel." Bettuzzi reiterated Asoffermet's view that a recovery can only happen if the EU starts thinking about safeguarding downstream end-products, instead of focusing on protecting upstream steelmakers. "If final consumption disappears, everything upstream will disappear," he said. "Asoffermet is really pushing for this. The EU is focusing too much on the producer." Energy prices remain a problem for European producers, and Bettuzzi said investment in renewables is the long-term solution. "For Italy, it is all out how we negotiate as we are obliged to buy energy from other countries, which can cause fluctuations." Bettuzzi cautioned against allowing Asian semi-finished products, such as slab, to enter Europe exempt from duty, and suggested applying the carbon border adjustment mechanism (CBAM) or a similar duty. "If we apply duties only on coils and sheets, but do not impose duties on semi-finished products, they will come in at 25pc less from Asia compared to Europe," he said. Bettuzzi highlighted flanges, heavily imported by Italy, which have been arriving duty-free. By Raghav Jain Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

News

Global battery demand rises close to 1TWh in 2024: IEA

15/05/25

News

15/05/25

Global battery demand rises close to 1TWh in 2024: IEA

Singapore, 15 May (Argus) — Global battery demand across electric vehicle (EV) and storage applications rose to almost 1TWh in 2024, according to energy watchdog the IEA, in its latest report. Demand was largely driven by EV sales growth, with EV battery demand growing by more than 25pc on the year to over 950GWh, mainly propelled by electric cars which accounted for over 85pc of EV battery demand, said the IEA in its EV Outlook 2025 . The almost 1TWh of demand is expected to more than triple to over 3TWh in 2030 under the IEA's stated policies scenario (Steps), which is based on countries' prevailing policies , with more demand from electric trucks despite electric cars still making up the majority of demand. EV battery demand rose by more than 30pc on the year in China, and currently takes up 59pc of total global EV battery demand. US demand has also grown, with the country taking up 13pc of the total share, on par with the EU. The IEA expects critical minerals supply surplus to persist over the next few years but cautioned that depressed prices could dissuade future investments and lead to supply shortages for lithium and nickel by 2030. "It will take about a decade before recycling has a significant impact on reducing primary mineral demand," said the IEA, citing feedstock limitations. Recent raw material prices for battery recyclers in China, the largest battery recycling market, remain higher than their battery recycling yields such as recycled lithium, nickel and cobalt, a Chinese battery recycler told Argus . Domestic battery recycling plants operating rates are "not high," the battery recycler said, with very thin activity in the domestic black mass market. Excessive battery capacity Global battery cell manufacturing capacity grew by almost 30pc in 2024 to 3.3TWh, more than triple the battery demand, according to the report. South Korean battery manufacturers accounted for over 400GWh of overseas battery manufacturing capacity in 2024, much higher than the 60GWh from Japanese manufacturers and 30GWh from Chinese manufacturers. South Korea's battery manufacturing is poised to further expand to more than 1TWh in 2030, almost double that of Chinese manufacturers, if all announced projects materialise. Global manufacturing capacity could grow to about 6.5TWh in 2030, about double the demand projected under IEA's Steps scenario, if all committed projects are realised. This would also entail China's share of global manufacturing capacity weakening from 85pc in 2024 to two-thirds by 2030. LFP battery share rises Lithium-iron-phosphate (LFP) batteries made up nearly half of the global EV battery market in 2024, said the IEA. Nearly all electric car LFP batteries sold in Europe or US were produced in China, which has a "de facto monopoly", said the IEA, with LFP becoming more attractive to European original equipment manufacturers looking to cut production costs. South Korean battery makers' market share in the EU fell to 60pc last year, down from 80pc in 2022, displaced by Chinese battery producers because the chemistry of LFP makes it more competitive, according to IEA. But top South Korean battery makers — LG Energy Solution , Samsung SDI , SK On — have all unveiled plans to mass produce EV LFP batteries over the coming years, looking to compete in the space. Japanese battery makers meanwhile saw their US market share fall to around 48pc, eroded by South Korea. South Korea took up 35pc of US market share last year, up from 20pc in 2022. Japanese domestic LFP development is also facing challenges, with Japanese carmaker Nissan recently cancelling a LFP plant in Kyushu as it goes through a restructure. LFP's penetration in the southeast Asia, Brazil and India markets is rising even quicker, with LFP battery electric car shares surpassing 50pc in each of the countries in 2024, according to the report. By Joseph Ho Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

News

Syrah to restart Mozambique graphite mine in June

15/05/25

News

15/05/25

Syrah to restart Mozambique graphite mine in June

Sydney, 15 May (Argus) — Australian mineral producer Syrah Resources will resume operations at its 350,000 t/yr Balama graphite mine complex in Mozambique by the end of June, following a nine-month shutdown over farming and election protests, the firm announced today. The company mines and processes graphite at Balama. It will only start mining graphite at the site in the July-September quarter, the firm said. Syrah's existing graphite stockpile at Balama can support graphite processing for at least three months as mining resumes, it added. Syrah regained access to Balama in early May , for the first time since September 2024 when farmers blocked access to the mine in a non-violent protest. The company's teams have not spotted any site damage. The protest was originally linked to farmers with "historical farmland resettlement grievances", according to Syrah. But the unrest persisted and worsened after Mozambique's general election in October, which triggered violent protests across the country's major cities given claims of electoral fraud. Syrah declared force majeure on some graphite shipments in December, and triggered events of default on a US government loan over the protests. But it did not default on any payment obligations Most protestors left the mine after Syrah signed a deal with farmers and the Mozambique government in April. Mozambique authorities removed remaining demonstrators over 3-4 May and secured the site. By Avinash Govind Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

News

Bolivian president bypasses reelection

14/05/25

News

14/05/25

Bolivian president bypasses reelection

Montevideo, 14 May (Argus) — Bolivian president Luis Arce will not run for a second five-year term and instead backed a united front to elect another leftist candidate. Arce's decision on Tuesday came on the eve of the filing deadline for the 17 August election. He called on former president Evo Morales to also step aside from the race to improve the chances of another left-wing contender. Morales is fighting a court ruling that he is ineligible to run after already having multiple terms. Arce said the Movement to Socialism (MAS) party should rally behind senate president Andronico Rodriguez, 36. Rodriguez announced his candidacy on 3 May as a third way, but remains closely aligned with Morales. He has led the senate since 2020. Four center-right candidates are expected to compete in the race. The MAS has governed Bolivia for most of the past 20 years. Arce and Morales, allies turned enemies, blame each other for Bolivia's economic turmoil, including its dwindling oil and natural gas production. Inflation through April was 5.5pc, up from 1.3pc in the same period last year. Inflation was 9.9pc last year, the highest since 2008. The World Bank forecasts GDP growth at 1.4pc for the year. The oil and gas sector is at the heart of the crisis. Bolivia has gone from fuel independence to importing 54pc of gasoline and 86pc of diesel, both of which are heavily subsidized. The government forecast $2.9bn on fuel subsidies this year. Crude production was close to 21,000 b/d in 2024, according to the statistics agency. It was approximately 51,000 b/d in 2014. Natural gas output, the cornerstone of Bolivia's economic growth for most of this century, has fallen. Output was approximately 33mn m³/d in 2024, down from a peak of 56mn m³/d in 2006. Proven reserves were at 4.5 trillion cf in 2023, less than half of the 10.7 trillion reported in 2017, according to the state-owned YPFB. YPFB in early May announced a new tender to certify reserves by the end of this year. Bolivia stopped daily piped gas exports to Argentina in September and has a contract to export up to 20mn m³/d to Brazil. Domestic demand for gas is close to 14mn m³/d, stated YPFB. On 1 April Argentina began using Bolivia's pipeline infrastructure to ship natural gas to Brazil. Three companies — Argentina's Pluspetrol and Tecpetrol, and France's TotalEnergies — have so far sent gas to Brazil. By Lucien Chauvin Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Business intelligence reports

Get concise, trustworthy and unbiased analysis of the latest trends and developments in oil and energy markets. These reports are specially created for decision makers who don’t have time to track markets day-by-day, minute-by-minute.

Learn more