Buzios to drive Petrobras production growth
Brazil's state-controlled Petrobras plans to spend around $18bn over the next five years to develop the giant Buzios pre-salt field, the biggest single investment under the company's $75.7bn 2020-24 business plan.
Around 28pc of a planned $64.4bn in upstream spending will be directed to adding up to seven floating production, storage and offloading units (FPSOs) at Buzios, which Petrobras says is the world's biggest oil field.
In early November, Petrobras and Chinese state-owned partners CNOOC and CNPC paid around $17bn for the right to produce volumes above the 3.15bn boe directly granted to Petrobras in a 2010 contract with the federal government. Buzios, the more extensive area in the Santos basin cluster known as the Transfer of Rights (TOR), is estimated to hold around 13bn bl of oil equivalent reserves.
The field currently hosts four 150,000 b/d FPSOs that are producing a total of 600,000 boe/d, mostly 28°API crude. At least two of the four platforms have been modified to produce around 170,000 b/d, upstream director Carlos Alberto Pereira de Oliveira said at an Investor Day presentation at the New York Stock Exchange today.
Petrobras is now preparing platform maintenance at Buzios, moderating output through mid-2020.
The first development phase at Buzios will be completed with a fifth 150,000 b/d unit scheduled for start-up in 2022.
In November, Petrobras said it planned to add five additional FPSOs at Buzios in a second development phase starting in 2024. The company has already expanded that plan, adding two additional units with a minimum capacity of 180,000 b/d, according to the company's presentation.
If Petrobras sticks with the minimum envisaged production capacity and does not opt for platforms with more than 200,000 b/d of capacity, as it has previously discussed, the field would have production capacity of around 1.86mn b/d by 2031.
The company's 1mn b/d Lula pre-salt field, which is currently Brazil's top hydrocarbons producer, has nine platforms with total installed capacity of around 1.35mn b/d.
Overall, Petrobras plans to produce 2.2mn b/d of oil in 2020, +/- 2.5pc, only a modest increase over its 2.1mn b/d target for 2019, as a result of upstream asset sales and maintenance.
The company produced 2.02mn b/d in the first 10 months of 2019, according to regulatory data, but it says platform ramp-ups will push production to new records in the final stretch of 2019.
The addition of 13 FPSOs off Brazil over the next five years is expected to drive oil production to around 2.9mn b/d by 2024. Four of those units—earmarked for the Mero, Marlim and Itapu fields and the Sergipe-Alagoas basin—have been delayed by one year compared with the previous plan.
Outside Buzios, Petrobras' upstream spending remains focused on tapping the pre-salt, which is expected to account for 66pc of the company's output in 2024 compared with 63pc in 2020.
Development of the company's biggest pre-salt fields, such as Mero and Lula, accounts for around $12.8bn, or 20pc, of upstream spending over the five-year period through 2024. Exploration in recently acquired pre-salt blocks will attract around $11.5bn.
Petobras plans to spend around $18.5bn on developing production in post-salt reserves over the next five years. The company had earmarked around $21bn for post-salt spending under its previous plan, almost all directed toward the aging Campos basin, where output has been declining at a rate of around 9pc/yr. The company will spend $20bn in Campos through 2024, mostly on new wells and enhanced recovery aimed at maintaining the current 1mn boe/d level.
Petrobras says its core deepwater business remains resilient, with the pre-salt oil production breakeven price pegged at $35-$45/bl.
Petrobras plans to divest $20bn-$30bn in non-core assets over the next five years, including refineries and onshore, shallow-water and mature fields.
The firm said the portfolio might include some legacy deepwater fields, such as the Marlim field in the Campos basin. Last year, Petrobras and CNPC signed a preliminary agreement covering a 20pc stake in the field. The deal is part of a broader agreement that includes completion of the Comperj refinery project in Rio de Janeiro. The agreement could close before year-end, according to Petrobras executives.
By Nathan Walters
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Opec+ crude production falls in June
Opec+ crude production falls in June
London, 8 July (Argus) — Opec+ crude output by members subject to cuts fell for a third straight month in June, as lower Russian production offset rises from some serial overproducers. Output fell by 90,000 b/d to 33.98mn b/d in June, according to Argus estimates, the lowest in three years. But it could have been lower, with the alliance overshooting its target for the month by 130,000 b/d (see table). Lower Opec+ production has played a key role in tightening oil markets in recent weeks. The $7-8/bl rise in oil prices over the past month will have come as a relief to Opec+, which initially saw prices slide after key members signalled their intention to start unwinding some of their production cuts from October . The nine Opec members subject to cuts were 150,000 b/d above target in June, but this was partially offset by the nine non-Opec members of the group, which produced 20,000 b/d below. Leading non-Opec producer Russia has driven much of the alliance's output falls in the past three months, as a pre-existing export cut pledge was replaced with an output reduction. And while it reduced production by 120,000 b/d to 9.14mn b/d last month, this was still well above its target of 8.98mn b/d. Much steeper falls could be on the horizon from Russia if it makes good on a promise to compensate for producing above target in recent months. Kazakhstan was another big overproducer last month, with its output rising by 80,000 b/d to 1.56mn b/d — 90,000 b/d above target. Despite outlining a plan to drive down output and compensate for overproducing this year, Kazakhstan has not met its target in any of the first six months of 2024. But lower production is on the horizon, with Kazakhstan undertaking maintenance at key fields later in the year — probably in August and October, according to its initial compensation plan. Iraq was again the alliance's largest overproducer last month, with output rising by 40,000 b/d to 4.2mn b/d — around 200,000 b/d above target. Like Kazakhstan, Iraq has failed to meet its target in any month this year, despite also outlining a plan to compensate for producing above quota. Rising summer temperatures boosted crude burn for power generation last month, but most of its overproduction is down to Baghdad's unwillingness to acknowledge surging production from the semi-autonomous Kurdish region. Iraq and Kazakhstan's combined overproduction has averaged 290,000 b/d this year, making their task of compensating much harder in the coming months. Disruption and decline In contrast, an emerging number of Opec+ members have been unable to hit their production targets in recent months. Grappling with natural decline and upstream challenges, Azerbaijan produced 80,000 b/d below its target of 550,000 b/d in the first six months. Malaysia also underproduced, by an average of 40,000 b/d in the same period. War-torn Sudan's production has fallen to just 20,000 b/d from pre-conflict levels of around 70,000 b/d. And South Sudan, which is entirely reliant on Sudan for its exports, has seen its production more than halve owing to the continued shutdown of a key pipeline in Sudan . Production was relatively uneventful in the Mideast Gulf Opec+ contingent. Saudi Arabia's output fell by 10,000 b/d to 8.95mn b/d, the UAE shed 10,000 b/d to 2.94mn b/d and Kuwait dropped by 20,000 b/d to 2.4mn b/d. Production from the three members exempt from production targets edged up in June. Sanctions-hit Iran continued its upward trajectory, adding 20,000 b/d to 3.31mn b/d — the highest since September 2018. Libya added 40,000 b/d to reach 1.22mn b/d on recent upstream work and Venezuela edged higher by 20,000 b/d despite the return of US sanctions in April. By Aydin Calik Opec+ crude production mn b/d Jun May* Jun target† ± target Opec 9 21.38 21.44 21.23 +0.15 Non-Opec 9 12.60 12.63 12.62 -0.02 Total 33.98 34.07 33.85 +0.13 *revised †includes additional cuts where applicable Opec wellhead production mn b/d Jun May Jun target† ± target Saudi Arabia 8.95 8.96 8.98 -0.03 Iraq 4.20 4.16 4.00 +0.20 Kuwait 2.40 2.42 2.41 -0.01 UAE 2.94 2.95 2.91 +0.03 Algeria 0.91 0.90 0.91 0.00 Nigeria 1.44 1.48 1.50 -0.06 Congo (Brazzaville) 0.26 0.26 0.28 -0.02 Gabon 0.23 0.25 0.17 +0.06 Equatorial Guinea 0.05 0.06 0.07 -0.02 Opec 9 21.38 21.44 21.23 +0.15 Iran 3.31 3.29 na na Libya 1.22 1.18 na na Venezuela 0.86 0.84 na na Total Opec 12^ 26.77 26.75 na na †includes additional cuts where applicable ^Iran, Libya and Venezuela are exempt from production targets Non-Opec crude production mn b/d Jun May* Jun target† ± target Russia 9.14 9.26 8.98 +0.16 Oman 0.76 0.76 0.76 +0.00 Azerbaijan 0.47 0.46 0.55 -0.08 Kazakhstan 1.56 1.48 1.47 +0.09 Malaysia 0.35 0.36 0.40 -0.05 Bahrain 0.18 0.18 0.20 -0.02 Brunei 0.05 0.05 0.08 -0.03 Sudan 0.02 0.02 0.06 -0.04 South Sudan 0.07 0.06 0.12 -0.05 Total non-Opec 12.60 12.63 12.62 -0.02 *revised †includes additional cuts where applicable Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Heavy rain, wind expected in Houston from Beryl: Update
Heavy rain, wind expected in Houston from Beryl: Update
Houston, 8 July (Argus) — Tropical storm Beryl is expected to regain hurricane strength before coming ashore near Matagorda, Texas, early Monday, bringing heavy rain and wind to the Houston area. As of 8pm ET Sunday, the center of the storm was about 120 miles east-southeast of Corpus Christi, Texas, with maximum sustained winds of 70mph, moving northwest at 12mph, according to the National Hurricane Center (NHC). The storm track forecast has shifted to the north of Corpus Christi, likely sparing that city's refining and oil export industries from the most severe conditions, although Citgo said its 165,000 b/d Corpus Christi refinery is running at reduced rates as part of its hurricane preparedness plan. Peak storm surge of 4-7ft is expected between Matagorda Bay and San Luis Pass, including at Freeport, home to a number of petrochemical plants and an LNG export terminal. Galveston Bay, which includes numerous refineries and oil export terminals along the Houston Ship Channel and Texas City, is expected to see 4-6ft of storm surge. The ports of Houston, Galveston, Freeport and Texas City were closed to all traffic at 5pm ET Sunday, according to the US Coast Guard. The Port of Corpus Christi has been closed since Saturday afternoon. US Gulf coast refiners appear to have robust fuel inventories for this time of year should the storm lead to operational issues. The four-week average of Gulf coast gasoline inventories in the week ended 28 June was up by over 4pc from the same period in 2023 and up by 6pc from 2022, after hitting a near six-month high in the penultimate week of June. Residents and businesses in the Houston area may see power outages Monday from the high winds, according to local emergency management officials. Rainfall is expected to range between 6-10 inches with 15 inches in some isolated areas, according to NHC. Little oil, gas production disruption Disruptions to US Gulf of Mexico oil and gas operations appear to be limited given Beryl's approach to the west of most US offshore oil and gas operations, although some platforms were evacuated late last week. Chevron said it has already started to send non-essential workers who were evacuated back to offshore facilities. Mexican offshore operations were halted late last week when the storm first entered the Gulf after passing over the Yucatan Peninsula. Early last week Beryl was a Category 5 storm, which made it the strongest on record for the month of July, as it left a trail of destruction in the Caribbean . The second named storm of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season, Beryl followed tropical storm Alberto, which came ashore in northeastern Mexico late last month. This year's Atlantic hurricane season is expected to be more active than normal, according to the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, with 4-7 major hurricanes that pack sustained winds of 111mph or higher possible. By Tom Fowler, Nathan Risser and Stephen Cunningham Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Beryl aims between Corpus Christi, Houston
Beryl aims between Corpus Christi, Houston
Houston, 7 July (Argus) — Tropical storm Beryl was expected to regain hurricane strength today before coming ashore between Corpus Christi and Houston, Texas, early Monday. As of 11am ET today the center of the storm was about 195 miles southeast of the refining and oil export hub of Corpus Christi with maximum sustained winds of 65mph. Moving northwest at 10mph, its landfall was expected at about 2am ET Monday, according to the National Hurricane Center (NHC). The track of the storm's landfall has moved toward the east for the past two days, moving Corpus Christi out of the area likely to see the highest winds and storm surge. The most powerful winds and storm surge should be centered on areas near Matagorda Bay, according to the forecast, with 4-6ft of storm surge expected. Galveston Bay, which include numerous refineries and petroleum export terminals along the Houston Ship Channel and Texas City, was expected to see 3-5ft of storm surge. The port of Corpus Christi was closed to all traffic as of Saturday afternoon while the ports of Houston, Galveston, Freeport and Texas City were set to "Yankee" status at 8am ET today, suspending all inbound traffic, bunkering and lightering operations. The Houston-area ports were expected to close to all traffic later today as the storm nears landfall, according to the US Coast Guard. Disruptions to US Gulf oil and gas operations so far appear to be limited given Beryl's approach to the west of most US offshore and gas operations. Mexican offshore operations were halted late last week when the storm first entered the Gulf after passing over the Yucatan peninsula. Early last week Beryl was a Category 5 storm, which made it the strongest on record for the month of July, as it left a trail of destruction in the Caribbean. The second named storm of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season, Beryl followed tropical storm Alberto, which came ashore in northeastern Mexico late last month. This year's Atlantic hurricane season is expected to be more active than normal, according to the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, with 4-7 major hurricanes that pack sustained winds of 111mph or higher possible. Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Reformist Pezeshkian to be Iran’s next president
Reformist Pezeshkian to be Iran’s next president
Dubai, 6 July (Argus) — Masoud Pezeshkian, the sole reformist candidate approved to run in this year's presidential election, was confirmed as Iran's next head of state after coming out on top in Friday's second-round run-off. A health minister under former president Mohammad Khatami, Pezeshkian secured nearly 16.4mn votes, or around 54pc of the total 30.5mn votes cast, according to results issued by the interior ministry early on Saturday. His rival, the ultraconservative former nuclear negotiator, Saeed Jalili, got 13.5mn votes. Pezeshkian and Jalili faced off after none of the four candidates contesting the election managed to secure the 50pc of the vote needed to win outright one week prior. Pezeshkian came out on top in that first round with 42pc of the vote, while Jalili came in a close second with 39pc. Iran's current parliamentary speaker, conservative Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf, who was contesting his fourth presidential election, came in at a distant third with 14pc of the vote, while former cabinet minister, Mostafa Pourmohammadi, also a conservative, secured less than 1pc. Coming at a time of growing apathy among Iranians, evidenced by the historically low participation in recent presidential and parliamentary elections, turnout became a major focus ahead of the election. Turnout in the previous presidential election in 2021 was just under 49pc, down from 73pc in 2017, while turnout in parliamentary elections in March was just 42pc. The 49pc turnout in 2021 was the lowest for a presidential election since the inception of the Islamic Republic. And yet, despite the surprise inclusion of a reformist to contest this year's election, turnout in the first round plummeted further to reach a new low of 39.8pc, in the clearest sign yet that large swaths of the Iranian electorate have lost faith in the Islamic Republic and feel there is little value to voting. This was despite a call from the supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, just days prior, for people to come out in force to participate in the election. A different way Ahead of the run-off, many put Pezeshkian's chances of victory down to his ability to galvanize and encourage at least some of those that initially chose not to participate, to turn out to vote. And to an extent, the numbers suggest that his efforts did not go unrewarded, with the turnout in the second round rising to 49.8pc, which, although still low, and only marginally above the 2021 turnout, represented a significant increase over the first round. In Pezeshkian, Iran is now poised to have its first reformist president for almost two decades. And with the country facing myriad external and internal challenges — from regional security to an economy ravaged by years of harsh economic sanctions reimposed by the US in 2018 — he will have his work cut out for him. And although in Iran the supreme leader, not the president, dictates policy and has the final say, Pezeshkian will still have an important role to play in determining how that policy is ultimately implemented. In his many interviews and debates on the campaign trail, Pezeshkian underlined the need for a change of tack on a range of domestic and external issues, from the role of the morality police, the unity of Iran's law enforcement tasked with enforcing mandatory rules on the dress code, to Iran's engagement with the west to lift the sanctions that have devastated Iran's economy. Pezeshkian, crucially, has signalled he will revive efforts to return to the 2015 nuclear deal that was brokered between Iran and world powers, including the US, with a view to lifting sanctions. His opponent, Jalili, appeared diametrically opposed to reviving talks, arguing that Iran's strengthened relations with its allies to the east, China and Russia, were serving Iran's interests more than the nuclear deal ever did. Iran has not yet set a concrete date for Pezeshkian's inauguration, but Alireza Salimi, a member of parliament, told state media today that it would be held before the end of the first half of the next Iranian month, Mordad, which would correspond with 5 August. By Nader Itayim Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
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