Vietnam is mulling tariffs on flat steel imports to protect its domestic steelmakers in the face of lower-cost overseas shipments and new capacity in 2020, adding to oversupply in the market.
The protectionist measures could stunt the growth of Asean spot trading of hot-rolled coil (HRC) into Vietnam, one of the few Asian countries without trade barriers on HRC imports.
Major coil producers Formosa Ha Tinh Steel and Hoa Phat Steel have lobbied the government to add such measures, similar to its safeguard duties on billet and long steels, market participants said.
HRC import prices plunged by more than $100/t from July-October, pressured by aggressive discounting by Indian exporters during the country's rainy season. The price plunge occurred after benchmark iron ore indexes peaked above $125/t cfr China, increasing steel production costs before HRC prices headed lower.
Potential losses by domestic mills this year and the addition of new capacity in 2020 have prompted the government to consider adding safeguard tariffs on HRC, Vietnam-based participants said.
Hoa Phat will start operations of a 2mn t/yr second phase at its integrated Dong Quat mill in second-quarter 2020, which will be used to make HRC. Formosa has a capacity of 7mn t/yr, 5.2mn t/yr of which is for HRC, which it sells domestically and exports. The two mills will be able to cover about 70pc of domestic HRC demand, leaving only 30pc demand for imports, a Vietnam-based trader said.
The increased supply comes as Vietnam's downstream demand slowed sharply in 2019, Vietnam-based traders and consumers said. Real estate construction has stalled in tier-one cities amid a review of approval processes, and the delays could continue into late 2020. Projects in tier-two cities could partly offset the slower demand in tier-one cities.
Vietnam's steel exports have not made up for the slower domestic demand. Pipe makers in south Vietnam have had poor sales this year and been unable export to neighbouring countries, with October-November sales down by 30-40pc on the year, a mill official said.
Revenue and price realisation details of the unlisted Formosa are not publicly available, but the mill and Hoa Phat have anecdotally incurred losses this year. In response, Hoa Phat has sharply reduced its staff count, participants said. The Hoa Sen and Nam Kim steel groups saw their profits fall to the lowest level in around five years in the third quarter, analysts said.
Consumers are opposing the safeguard duties because they will lead to a rise in production costs, adding that imports are needed to meet at least half of domestic HRC demand. The global economy will turn better in 2020 with the US-China trade war easing, which may further stimulate Vietnamese steel demand. A proposal to impose a 5pc duty on China's HRC sales to Vietnam was abandoned by the finance ministry in September as it did not find enough evidence of injury to domestic producers, consumers said.
Official data showed solid growth for Vietnam's overall steel sector before the second-half slowdown.
Vietnam's January-June steel output rose by 17pc to 7.8mn t, according to the Southeast Asia Iron and Steel Institute (SEAISI). Vietnam's first-half steel imports climbed by 21pc to 7.4mn t, while exports increased by 8.1pc. First-half consumption rose by 23pc to 11.8mn t, SEAISI said.
India-origin HRC exports were the main weight on Asean spot markets in late 2019, pricing at a discount to other origins. Chinese offers for SAE grade coils were broadly $5-20/t higher compared with Indian offers in Vietnam during the past year, according to the Argus HRC Asean cfr Vietnam country origin differentials.
The Asean HRC index fell from a 2019 high of $518/t cfr Vietnam in July to as low as $412/t cfr in October, before steadily rebounding in December, with the index at $492/t cfr on 24 December.
Trade on the London Metal Exchange fob China HRC (Argus) contract is on pace to set a new record in December since its launch in March. Asean markets are widely distorted by trade barriers. Vietnam changing from a free port to one with safeguard duties will put it in the same category as most of the others in the region, potentially pinching growth in its spot physical trade.
