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Texas oil proration is 'dead,' regulator says: Update

  • Market: Crude oil, Natural gas, Oil products
  • 04/05/20

Adds another comment from Sitton.

A plan to cut Texas' oil output by about 1mn b/d is "dead" and a planned vote on the measure tomorrow may not happen, a state regulator said.

"We probably are going to leave it to market forces," said Texas Railroad Commissioner Ryan Sitton, in a broadcast interview. "At this point, we are not going to prorate tomorrow."

The three-person Texas Railroad Commission is the lead oil and gas regulator in the state, and Sitton had been the commission's main proponent of a plan to order production cuts to help balance the oil market. Crude demand and prices tumbled in early March amid efforts to contain the Clovid-19 pandemic, and the market saw a further downturn on 20 April when WTI Nymex benchmark crude futures settled at -$37.63/bl, a historic first. Prices recovered into positive territory the next day. The front-month June WTI contract today was trading near $20/bl at 2:20pm ET.

Texas should have acted four to six weeks earlier and missed an opportunity to lead on the proration issue because the "political process has slowed this down," Sitton said. The US will be "the big loser in the global oil business" when demand returns to normal in a year or two with small independent, privately-owned producers being hurt the most, he said.

Sitton also took to Twitter to say that "prorationing will not be happening."

"I wish I could explain why so many Texans will lose their jobs while oil production drops in the US worse than anywhere else, but politics beats data, so there are no answers," he said in a Tweet. "Just ‘free market.'"

The Railroad Commission set the proration measure on its agenda for a possible vote tomorrow.

The chances of approval already took a hit last week after the panel's chairman Wayne Christian came out against any proration measure.

"I plan to stick to my free market principles and oppose proration in Texas," Christian said in an editorial.

The third commissioner, Christi Craddick, has voiced concerns about the legality of a proration plan.

The Texas Railroad Commission has been considering a production cut plan since receiving a joint request from Pioneer Natural Resources and Parsley Energy in March, arguing that the move was urgently needed to keep the industry afloat.

The proposed cuts are supported primarily by smaller producers that are in more precarious financial positions.


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12/11/24

Finnish, Baltic gas demand falls on year in October

Finnish, Baltic gas demand falls on year in October

London, 12 November (Argus) — Aggregate Finnish and Baltic gas consumption dropped by nearly 24pc on the year in October, but still reached a six-month high as the heating season began. Combined demand in Finland, Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania last month rose to 3.19TWh from 2.61TWh in September , in line with the typical seasonal progression, but was well below the 4.18TWh consumed a year earlier and the average of roughly 5.2TWh in 2018-21 ( see consumption graph, data and download ). Demand in all four individual countries was lower on the year, with the biggest drop in Lithuania, where consumption fell by more than 600GWh. In October 2023, the region's biggest consumer Achema had briefly resumed full production at both of its ammonia production units at Jonava , boosting Lithuanian demand that month. Despite the year-on-year drop, this was the fifth consecutive month-on-month increase after demand hit a near two-year low in May. Cumulative demand in the first 10 months of the year totalled 35TWh, well up from 30.3TWh a year earlier. That said, strong demand in the first quarter when the region experienced a prolonged cold snap supported a slightly skewed figure. If only considering April-October, demand of 18.5TWh was slightly below last year's 18.9TWh and well under the 30TWh average in 2018-21. This may indicate a more structural decline in the region's gas demand, particularly with power-sector demand falling as higher nuclear and renewables output cuts into the room left available for gas in the generation stack. Gas-fired power generation in the four countries totalled 186GWh last month, Fraunhofer ISE data show. This was well below 307GWh in October 2023, and the second lowest for any October since at least 2018 ( see gas-fired power graph ). Gas-fired output was lower on the year in all four countries, with roughly 40GWh drops in Lithuania, Finland and Latvia. Onshore wind production in Finland, by far the region's largest overall power producer, jumped by more than 1TWh on the year, more than offsetting lower nuclear and hydro output. This allowed Finland to net export around 150GWh of power, having net imported nearly 300GWh in October 2023, according to Fraunhofer data. Prices on the regional GET Baltic exchange averaged €41.74/MWh in October, up by 3pc on the month but 18pc down on the year. The price on the exchange "increasingly correlates with" the TTF, a correlation that will likely strengthen as GET Baltic trading migrates to the larger EEX platform next year , chief executive Giedre Kurme said. This transition will "create opportunities for competition, more liquid trading and price convergence", and "we are already seeing increased interest from international participants in the Baltic-Finland region", Kurme said. Firms traded 708GWh on the exchange in October, the most for any month since February, and all transactions were on the daily market. The joint Latvian-Estonian market accounted for 43pc of total trades, followed by Lithuania at 31pc and Finland at 26pc, GET Baltic said. Maintenance continues to limit Finnish LNG sendout Extensive maintenance on the Balticconnector pipeline this month, which makes all southbound capacity from Finland towards Estonia unavailable, continues to limit sendout from Finland's Inkoo LNG terminal. After maintenance on the 14-27 October gas days took exit capacity towards Estonia fully off line, this capacity is again unavailable because of further maintenance on 4-17 November. Without southward pipeline capacity, sendout from Inkoo must fall to levels that only the domestic market can absorb. Inkoo received the 145,000m³ Arctic Princess just before the maintenance started on 3 November, and the next scheduled delivery is not until 28 November ( see LNG data and download ). Sendout is likely to remain low even after the end of maintenance so as not to fully deplete stocks before the next arrival. Sendout from Inkoo averaged 23 GWh/d on 4-11 November. In contrast, sendout from Lithuania's Klaipeda terminal has jumped to 104 GWh/d this month, helping to plug the Baltic supply gap left by no southward inflows from Finland. Sendout from Klaipeda has been higher this month than the 85 GWh/d in October and 80 GWh/d on 1-11 October last year. Klaipeda has already received two cargoes this month, on 4 and 12 November, and will receive a further two on 21 and 29 November, the terminal's schedule shows. This suggests that sendout is likely to remain brisk for the rest of this month, helping to meet higher regional demand as the weather turns colder and limits the need for strong withdrawals from storage early in the winter season. By Brendan A'Hearn FinBalt gas consumption by country GWh Gas-fired power generation by country GWh Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Algerian bitumen importers eye resumed Spain flows


12/11/24
News
12/11/24

Algerian bitumen importers eye resumed Spain flows

London, 12 November (Argus) — Algerian bitumen importers are getting ready to resume cargo imports from Spain after the Algerian government signalled last week that trade can restart for the first time in more than two years. The government's decision in June 2022 to suspend a friendship and co-operation treaty with Spain, linked to Madrid's public recognition of Morocco's autonomy plan for Western Sahara, led to the immediate cancellation of previously agreed bitumen cargo movements from Spain to Algeria. In a notice issued by the Bank of Algeria on 6 November, Algerian firms were told they could resume trade with their Spanish counterparts under the usual transaction rules, and both state-owned and private Algerian bitumen importers say they are now free to discuss deals to buy and bring Spanish cargoes to their facilities for supply into the domestic market. No such deals are understood to have been concluded yet, but private importers into western Algerian import terminals like Ghazaouet, Oran and Arzew are well placed because of their relative proximity to Spanish export terminals at Tarragona, Huelva and Cadiz compared with existing supply sources in Italy and even more so when compared with cargoes shipped from Greece or Turkey. Ship brokers said freight rates for standard 5,000t bitumen tanker cargo movements from Tarragona — site of a 1.2mn t/yr Asesa bitumen refinery held in a 50-50 joint venture by Repsol and Moeve, formerly Cepsa, — to Ghazaouet are around $35/t, compared with around $50/t for the Augusta, Italy, to Ghazaouet route. Spanish and international bitumen trading and supply firms are still examining the Algerian developments and seeking clearance "on all sides", as one said today, before resuming bitumen cargo discussions with their Algerian counterparts. That could mean the actual restart of Spain-Algeria flows takes until early 2025. Demand for now may be hindered by a pre-winter slowdown in Algerian road construction and bitumen-consuming activity as weather conditions gradually worsen. Algerian state-owned Sonatrach, which imports cargoes into a raft of bitumen terminals along the country's Mediterranean coast, is largely dependent on substantial term flows from Sonatrach Raffineria Italiana's (SRI) 170,000 b/d refinery and export terminal at Augusta, Sicily, and occasionally takes Greek cargoes from Motor Oil Hellas' Agioi Theodoroi refinery and export terminal at Corinth. Sonatrach is less likely than private Algerian buyers to seek Spanish cargoes, on which it had been highly reliant until 2020 before it switched in a big way to Augusta after it bought the refinery there from ExxonMobil in 2018. Algerian market participants said the recent slippage in bitumen cargo prices linked to Mediterranean high-sulphur fuel oil (HSFO) declines and seasonally weakening bitumen cargo differentials to the regional HSFO cargo prices — coupled with a late season slippage in cross-Mediterranean freight rates over the past few weeks — are all factors conducive to resumed imports from Spain. Spanish fob cargo premiums to Mediterranean HSFO cargoes have dropped from around $10/t in mid-October to $2-3/t last week, while outright prices for Spanish bitumen exports have slipped from $498-499/t fob to $458/t over the same period. By Keyvan Hedvat Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Cop: Negotiators positive on remaining Article 6 talks


12/11/24
News
12/11/24

Cop: Negotiators positive on remaining Article 6 talks

Baku, 12 November (Argus) — Negotiators have a "positive attitude" towards outstanding talks on Article 6 of the Paris Agreement taking place at the UN Cop 29 climate conference in Baku, Azerbaijan, bolstered by the finalisation of crediting mechanism standards yesterday. The adoption of two key Article 6.4 standards on Monday night kicks off remaining talks on a very positive note, Switzerland's lead negotiator on international carbon markets under Article 6, Simon Fellermeyer, said. The approval has set the mood for remaining negotiations, lead Article 6 negotiator for New Zealand Jacqui Ruesga added. Article 6 of the Paris accord aims to help set rules on global carbon trade. Negotiators have already seen a more constructive attitude to discussions since the failed talks at Cop 28 in Dubai last December, Ruesga said. This was spurred on by disappointment at the lack of outcome last year, and supported by a number of informal meetings organised in the lead-up to June's Bonn climate conference, as well as increasing direction from heads of delegation on the subject. Divergence persists on some issues, but negotiators still have this positive attitude, Ruesga said. Different sides have also begun communicating the reasons behind their positions more clearly, Article 6 negotiator for Colombia Adriana Gutierrez added, which she hopes will help bring a result this year. Outstanding questions include how to deal with reporting inconsistencies and credit authorisations. Countries also still disagree on the question of whether Article 6.2's international registry should be capable of holding internationally transferable mitigation outcome (Itmo) units, or simply provide an accounting function. But talks on this point are progressing along the lines of deciding which potential functions of the registry could be integrated or dropped in the view of opposing sides, Ruesga said. The first ever Itmo transfer, which took place between Switzerland and Thailand earlier this year , would have been much easier through such a registry, Fellermeyer said. Gutierrez expects most remaining topics to be concluded ahead of Cop 30 in Belem, Brazil, next year. But some smaller, more technical elements are "bound to stick through" to the next summit, Ruesga said. There is not much appetite to reopen most elements for discussion next year, Fellermeyer said, meaning it could be that they are either concluded in Baku or left in a state of "constructive ambiguity". Agreement in Baku on the remaining Article 6 elements is important to give confidence to potential participants, Fellermeyer said, having encountered parties who declined to cooperate through the mechanism owing to a lack of visibility on the rules. By Victoria Hatherick Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Cop: UK sets ambitious 2035 climate target


12/11/24
News
12/11/24

Cop: UK sets ambitious 2035 climate target

London, 12 November (Argus) — The UK government has set a target to cut all greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by at least 81pc by 2035, from a 1990 baseline, the country's prime minister Keir Starmer said today at the UN Cop 29 climate summit in Baku, Azerbaijan. The target, which will form the basis of the UK's next national climate plan, is in line with recent recommendations from the independent advisory Climate Change Committee . Energy minister Ed Miliband sought the committee's guidance shortly after the Labour government was elected in July. Starmer urged all countries to come forward with new national climate plans — known as nationally determined contributions (NDCs) — at Cop 29. Details of the UK's new NDC are not yet clear, but Starmer said his government is "fully committed" to its pledge of zero-emissions power by 2030. He also repeated his promise for a "government that trod lightly on people's lives". "The UK is stepping up as a climate frontrunner at a time when such leadership is critically needed, co-founder of think-tank E3G Nick Mabey said. "We hope to see detailed implementation plans — ideally with sectoral commitments and a supporting investment roadmap — to lend credibility to its submission." The energy transition "is a huge opportunity", Starmer said, pointing to global appetite for renewables investment. And he noted the "advantage of being a first mover". The country's Labour government, elected in July, has diverged substantially from the previous administration on climate issues. The UK government today announced a "clean industry bonus" — a provisional £27mn ($34.6mn) per GW of offshore wind, to incentivise offshore wind developers to invest in industrial areas, many of which are rooted in the oil and gas industry. This will boost "green jobs" and support sustainable industry, the government said. By Georgia Gratton Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Cop: Carbon credit standards key step, work continues


12/11/24
News
12/11/24

Cop: Carbon credit standards key step, work continues

Baku, 12 November (Argus) — The adoption of new standards for creating carbon credits under the Paris Agreement on the first day of the UN Cop 29 climate summit yesterday is a key step, but work continues on Article 6. Cop parties agreed yesterday on standards that will cover credits for greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions removals under Article 6.4 of the Paris accord. The new standards set requirements for developing and assessing projects and establish rules covering carbon removal projects. Article 6 of the Paris accord aims to help set rules on global carbon trade. Cop 29 lead negotiator Yalchin Rafiyev said the decision is a critical step towards concluding Article 6 negotiations. "This will be a game-changing tool to direct resources to the developing world and help us save up to $250bn/yr when implementing our climate plans," Rafiyev reiterated. "[The] centralised UN mechanism for markets looks at the projects that are not financially feasible currently and how it can help in providing some stream of revenue," chair for the supervisory body Maria al-Jishi said. UN climate body UNFCCC chief Simon Stiell said that yesterday's breakthrough was a good start but pointed out that this was "the product of over 10 years of work within the process" and that more work remains to be done. Cop parties must reach a deal on other aspects of implementing 6.4 and 6.2, which together govern how countries can use carbon credits to meet their GHG emissions-reduction pledges, known as nationally determined contributions (NDCs). Remaining issues include the nature of credit registries, the guidance for inclusion of removals and a solution for dealing with reporting inconsistencies and credit authorisations. Overlapping articles 6.4 and 6.2 elements are still under discussion and will require a decision at Cop 29, including on how governments and host parties choose to interact with 6.4 on credit authorisation and how national credit registries can interact with the 6.4 registry, al-Jishi said. By Bachar Halabi Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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