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Growth in Indian coke use outstrips other oil products

  • Market: Petroleum coke
  • 19/08/20

Rising demand for petroleum coke has made it the fastest-growing petroleum product consumed in India during the last decade, according to a report by a division of the Indian petroleum ministry.

Coke use registered double-digit compound annual growth rate (CAGR) in the decade up to the Indian financial year ending on 31 March 2020, partly as a result of its increased popularity with cement makers. The trend also fuelled demand for seaborne coke, making India the world's biggest importer of the product.

Indian coke consumption grew at a CAGR of 12.6pc in the last decade, according to report by the Petroleum Planning and Analysis Cell, an arm of the petroleum ministry. Coke was the only petroleum product to register double-digit growth. The next fastest-growing product, gasoline, registered growth of 8.9pc over the decade, followed by liquefied petroleum gas at 7.2pc and aviation turbine fuel at 5.6pc.

India's consumption of coke rose more than threefold from 6.6mn t in the 2009-10 fiscal year ended 31 March 2010 to 21.7mn t in 2019-20, data show. The growth was fuelled by a rise in the acceptability of coke as a fuel in cement-making kilns. The switch to coke from coal was guided by its competitive price advantage. India's cement industry, the second biggest in the world, accounts for about 71pc of the country's coke consumption. Cement output rose to 334mn t in 2019-20 from 200mn t in 2009-10.

The decade was marked by a pronounced shift in the fuel strategy used for the cement-making process, said Surinder Gupta, an independent cement industry consultant. "The use of coke as a fuel for cement manufacturing started around 2009-10. Shree Cement was the first Indian company to adopt coke as a fuel and its success pulled in all the other companies," said Gupta, who headed the consumer sales division of state-controlled refiner IOC until early 2011 and was later the commercial adviser to Dalmia Cement until 2019.

India's coke consumption rose for seven consecutive years until 2017-18, when it touched an all-time high of 25.7mn t. But coke consumption declined by 17pc on the year to 21.3mn t in 2018-19 as regulatory uncertainties pared demand and limited imports. The Indian Supreme Court was at that time mulling a coke import ban amid environmental concerns following a surge in imports starting in 2016.

Consumption then increased marginally to 21.7mn t in the year ended 31 March 2020 after India's policy was clarified, with cement makers exempt from the import ban. This encouraged them to move away from other alternatives such as high-sulphur US thermal coal.

The last decade was marked by an increase in the use of sour crude by Indian refineries, leading to an increase in their coke output, said Gupta. But the rise in demand was stronger than the country's production capacity, leading to higher imports. India is estimated to have imported 10.8mn t of coke in 2019, a 61pc year-on-year increase from a low base in 2018, according to GAC Shipping data. India imported a record 13.8mn t in 2016.

India's coke consumption jumps in past decade

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11/11/24

Lower Mississippi draft restrictions lifted

Lower Mississippi draft restrictions lifted

Houston, 11 November (Argus) — The US Coast Guard (USGC) removed draught restrictions from the lower Mississippi River on 8 November, after several rain washed across much of the Midwestern US. Draft restrictions were completely lifted for north and southbound barges on the lower Mississippi River between Tiptonville, Tennessee, to Tunica, Louisiana. Approximately 2-8 inches of rain were reported in Illinois and Missouri in the last seven days, adding around 14 inches to the lower Mississippi River, according to the National Weather Service (NWS). St Louis, Missiouri was at a high of 11.5 inches above baseline on 11 November, up from a low of -1.5ft on 1 November. The USGC has had draft restrictions in place since August, with the river system receiving a short reprieve in early October after rain from Hurricane Helene poured into the US river system. But low water levels and restrictions returned about two weeks later. Prior to recent precipitation, drafts were restricted to 10-10.5ft for southbound barges and tows could not not be greater than 6-7 barges wide. Northbound barges could not draft greater than 9.5ft, tows could not be more than six barges wide, and only four barges could be loaded. High water levels are expected to remain through November, according to NWS but barge carriers have said that water levels will slip quickly if no additional rain falls along the upper Mississippi River. By Meghan Yoyotte Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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US railroad-labor contract talks heat up


04/11/24
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04/11/24

US railroad-labor contract talks heat up

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Cemex expects coke prices to continue to fall


28/10/24
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28/10/24

Cemex expects coke prices to continue to fall

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CSX forecasts softer 4Q rail demand


17/10/24
News
17/10/24

CSX forecasts softer 4Q rail demand

Washington, 17 October (Argus) — Eastern US railroad said it expects that fourth quarter commodity market conditions will be mixed, limiting some freight demand. "Going into the fourth quarter, near-term conditions look modestly more challenging," chief executive Joe Hinrichs said on Wednesday. But the railroad expects "modest volume growth", supported by a few segments including chemicals and agriculture. But lower locomotive fuel prices and the impact of international coking coal prices, which are linked to export rail contracts, could drive a decrease in total revenue during the fourth quarter. He estimated that impact at roughly $200mn compared with last year's fourth quarter revenue of $3.68bn. CSX expects to see a carryover of year-over-year momentum in chemicals, agriculture and food, forest products and minerals, while metals and automotive will continue to be challenged. Demand for metals shipments is predicted to soften through the end of the year. Interest in shipments, particularly steel, is soft because of "sluggish demand, ample supply and low commodity prices", chief commercial officer Kevin Boone said. A weaker-than-anticipated automotive market contributed to the drop in metals demand. Consumer demand for automotive products has been reduced by high retail prices and interest rates, which has led to increased dealer inventories and slower production, Boone said. But CSX expects that an "interest rate easing cycle will help these markets normalize," Boone said. Metals and equipment volume fell in the second quarter, primarily because of lower steel and scrap shipments. Shipments of metals and equipment fell by 9pc to about 64,000 carloads compared with the same three months in 2023. Revenue dropped to $208mn, down by 8pc from a year earlier. Automotive volume dropped in the second quarter because of lower North American vehicle production, CSX said. Automotive traffic fell to 301,000 railcars loaded, down by 2pc from the third quarter 2023. Automotive revenue dropped to $98mn, down by 3pc compared with a year earlier. The outlook for fertilizer shipments is mixed following the third quarter as a decline in long-haul phosphates shipments persisted. Volume was negative, but the railroad was able to haul some profitable spot shipments. Shipments of fertilizer fell to 45,000 carloads in the third quarter, down by 4pc from a year earlier. Fertilizer revenue dropped to $118mn, down by 5pc from a year earlier. CSX expects growth in some market segments. Chemicals freight demand is expected to continue growing following "consistent, broad strength across plastics, industrial chemicals, LPGs, and waste. That demand helped boost chemicals volume by 9pc compared with a year earlier. Chemicals revenue rose to $727mn in the second quarter, up by 13pc compared with a year earlier. 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Higher coal may drive mid-sulphur coke demand


15/10/24
News
15/10/24

Higher coal may drive mid-sulphur coke demand

London, 15 October (Argus) — The premium for mid-sulphur petroleum coke on an fob US Gulf basis may widen again as higher coal prices push Turkish cement makers to this grade in order to remain within overall sulphur limits. Mid-sulphur coke could begin to be more actively traded in Turkey as buyers there seek to reduce the amount of coal in their fuel mix, with coke becoming much more price competitive, a cement producer said. Most Turkish cement plants can now use higher sulphur coke, but in order to do so, they must use a higher proportion of coal to meet emissions limits. And the number of coal trades has fallen sharply in the second half of the year. Coke's discount to coal on a delivered basis has widened as coke prices have steadily fell and coal prices rose. Cfr Turkey 5.5pc sulphur dry basis coke reached a 38pc discount to coal on a heat-adjusted basis as of Argus ' last weekly fuel-grade coke assessment, compared with a 31pc discount a month before and a 10pc discount during the same week last year. Both mid- and high-sulphur coke in Turkey are now at their widest discount to coal since 16 March 2022. Cement plants were already starting to prefer mid-sulphur over higher-sulphur material because the premium has narrowed to a multi-month low. Since the start of October, mid-sulphur coke's premium to high-sulphur coke has remained at $2.50/t in Turkey, the lowest since 27 March. The 5.5pc sulphur coke's average premium to 6.5pc sulphur on a cfr Turkey basis declined by 65pc on the year from January-September, to $4.98/t. This is slightly narrower than the premium for 4.5pc as received coke on an fob US Gulf basis, but this has also traded at a historically narrow premium to high-sulphur coke so far this year . The fob Gulf premium averaged $5.47/t year-to-date through September, falling by more than half from the same nine-month period last year. And last week it narrowed to its lowest since late August, after the 4.5pc sulphur assessment fell by $1.50/t on the week while 6.5pc sulphur prices held steady for the first week since 21 August, as spot demand emerged. The lower premium is a result of weak demand for mid-sulphur coke outside of the Mediterranean as well as higher supply of 4.5pc sulphur Venezuelan coke over the past two years. This coke still attracts demand in Turkey, India and China despite US sanctions on Venezuela's oil industry. But Chinese demand for mid-sulphur fuel coke has sputtered since last year as stocks there have climbed, leading Mediterranean buyers to lower bids, feeling that suppliers have limited options elsewhere. Some cement plants in Turkey have been lowering bids for 5.5pc sulphur coke even further to below $80/t cfr, basically in line with high-sulphur prices, which were assessed at $77.50/t last week. Two cement plants already achieved this price level for 5.8pc sulphur max coke earlier this month, purchasing a joint cargo at about $77-78/t cfr. It remains to be seen if the stronger interest in mid-sulphur coke from Turkish buyers reverses the trend of a falling spread between the two grades of coke. At least two firms this week are seeking seaborne mid-sulphur coke cargoes for November-December loading. By Alexander Makhlay Mid- to high-sulphur coke premiums $/t Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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