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EU details Russian 'trade distortion'

  • Market: Chemicals, Fertilizers, Metals, Natural gas, Petrochemicals
  • 23/10/20

The European Commission today published a lengthy report on "significant" government-driven distortions in Russia's economy, focusing on energy, steel, aluminium, chemicals and fertilisers.

Trade commissioner Valdis Dombrovskis said the report is an additional "instrument" in the EU's toolbox to combat unfair trade. The 436-page report has been prepared for use in EU trade-defence proceedings.

The report details a range of distorting factors. Russian producers of nitrogen fertilisers, including ammonium nitrate, are competitive in global markets because of the low price of Russian gas, the report states. The EU has an anti-dumping duty of €32.71/t on Russian ammonium nitrate. Russian urea ammonium nitrate (UAN) carries anti-dumping duties of €27.77-42.47/t, depending on the producer.

Likewise, the profitability of the country's chemicals industry is "mainly achieved" through gas contract prices that are "significantly lower than world prices".

The commission notes that the lower cost of power in Russia follows on from the key fuels — coal, oil, natural gas and uranium — mainly belonging to state-owned firms. And it points out that energy prices are regulated by state-run monopolies to stimulate output.

The commission paints a similar picture for chemicals, citing the benefits of Russia's low domestic energy prices.

Regarding fertilizers and metals, the commission notes that there are also discounts for deliveries of specific goods. "Some of the big companies, such as Novatek, NLMK or PhosAgro were also benefiting from cheaper rates. The ... railway tariff reduction constitutes, in reality, state support, putting some producers in a privileged position."

For steel, the commission notes — somewhat more cautiously — that certain elements of the country's electricity, gas and rail transport pricing policies, as well as export restrictions on scrap, "may" contribute to lower costs of production and domestic and international deliveries.

And for aluminium, the commission sees private-sector Rusal benefiting from "some" state measures to strengthen the firm's position domestically and internationally, including preferential state funding for some projects, promotion of increased use of wrought aluminium on domestic markets and measures limiting market access for foreign producers.


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25/11/24

Uruguay's left-wing candidate wins presidency

Uruguay's left-wing candidate wins presidency

Montevideo, 25 November (Argus) — The left-wing opposition Frente Amplio will return to power in Uruguay after winning a hard-fought run-off election on 24 November. Yamandu Orsi, former mayor of the Canalones department, was elected president with close to 51pc of valid votes. He defeated Alvaro Delgado, of the ruling Partido Nacional. The Frente will control the senate, but will have a minority in the lower chamber. It last governed from 2015-2020. Orsi will take office on 1 March in one of Latin America's most stable economies, with the World Bank forecasting growth at 3.2pc for this year, much higher than the 1.9pc regional average. He will also inherit a country that has been making strides to implement a second energy transition geared toward continued decarbonization and new technologies, such as SAF and low-carbon hydrogen. He will also have to decide on future oil and natural gas exploration. Uruguay does not produce oil or gas, but has hopes that its offshore mimics that of Nambia, because of similar geology. TotalEnergies has made a major find there. The Frente's government plan states that it "will deepen the energy transition, focusing on the use of renewable energy, and decarbonization of the economy and transportation … gradually regulating so that public and cargo transportation can operate with hydrogen." On to hydrogen Uruguay is already the regional leader with renewable energy, with renewables covering 100pc of power demand on 24 November, according to the state-run power company, UTE. Wind accounted for 49pc, hydro 35pc, biomass 10pc and solar 6pc. Orsi will need to make decisions regarding high-profile projects for low-carbon hydrogen, as well as a push by the state-run Ancap to get private companies to ramp up oil and gas exploration on seven offshore blocks. The industry, energy and mining ministry lists four planned low-carbon hydrogen projects, including one between Chile's HIF and Ancap subsidiary Alur that would have a 1GW electrolyzer. Germany's Enertrag is working on an e-methanol project with a 150MW electrolyzer, while two Uruguayan groups are working on small projects with 2MW and 5MW electrolyzers, respectively. The Orsi government will also need to decide if it continues with Ancap's planned bidding process for four offshore blocks, each between 600-800km² (232-309 mi²), to generate up to 3.2GW of wind power to produce 200,000 t/yr of green hydrogen on floating platforms. The Frente has been noncommittal about the future of seven offshore oil and gas blocks, including three held by Shell, two by the UK's Challenger — which recently farmed in Chevron — and one each by Argentina's state-owned YPF and US-based APA Corporation. The Frente's government plan states that "a national dialogue will be called to analyze the impacts and alternatives to exploration and extraction of fossil fuels." By Lucien Chauvin Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Trump’s ‘drill, baby, drill’ risks industry pushback


25/11/24
News
25/11/24

Trump’s ‘drill, baby, drill’ risks industry pushback

New York, 25 November (Argus) — The biggest obstacle standing in the way of president-elect Donald Trump's campaign pledge to unleash the full force of the nation's oil potential could end up being some of his biggest cheerleaders in the industry. Top energy executives are broadly supportive of Trump's plans to slash red tape and adopt pro-fossil fuel policies, such as opening up more federal land to drilling and speeding up the permitting process for oil and gas projects. But his plea for producers to pump flat-out in order to help bring down energy costs might quickly bump up against reality. The industry is sitting tight against an uncertain macro-economic backdrop, with crude prices on the back foot and a global oil market that is forecast to be in surplus next year. Shale bosses that learnt the hard way the lessons of prior boom-and-bust cycles are in no hurry to repeat the mistakes of the past. "It's kind of hard to look at a world that has 4mn-6mn b/d of surplus capacity on the sidelines and try to think we can grow effectively into that," US independent Diamondback Energy chief executive Travis Stice says. For the time being, shareholders are in the driving seat and generating cash flow remains the rallying cry. "We're going to just stay conservative and let volume be the output of cash flow generation," Stice says, summing up the mood of many of his peers. As a result, Trump might have his work cut out for him trying to persuade US producers to open up the floodgates. Measures such as rolling back environmental regulations will only help at the margin. One difference from Trump's first term is that the industry is emerging from a frantic round of consolidation that has resulted in ownership of vast tracts of the shale patch falling into the hands of fewer but larger public operators, for whom capital discipline is sacrosanct. Last year's 1mn b/d boost to overall US crude production took market watchers by surprise, but the rate of growth is slowing even as output continues to hit new record highs. ExxonMobil and Chevron are deploying their vast scale and technology prowess to ramp up output from the Permian basin of west Texas and southeastern New Mexico, but the rest of the industry is playing it steady. Cycle path For the most part, public companies were hesitant to set out their stalls for 2025 during recent third-quarter earnings calls. Those that have outlined tentative plans indicate a desire to maintain the status quo, leading to expectations for little or minimal growth. "Nearly every company cited continued improvements in cycle times that are allowing for more capital-efficient programmes," bank Raymond James analyst John Freeman says. "Efficiency gains show no signs yet of ending." US independent EOG Resources forecasts another year of slower US liquids growth on the back of a lower rig count and dwindling inventory of drilled but uncompleted wells. "The rig count really hasn't moved in just about a year now," chief executive Ezra Yacob says. "That's really the biggest thing that's informing our expectation for slightly less growth year over year in the US." In the immediate future, weaker oil prices might translate into slower growth for the Permian, delaying the inevitable peak in overall US crude production, producer Occidental Petroleum chief executive Vicki Hollub says. But the top-performing US basin will continue to lead the way further out while other basins lose their edge. In a fast-maturing shale sector where the priority is to lower costs and maximise returns, that suggests a flat production growth profile going forward. "We see no change to the intermediate-term drilling path for oil set by the fundamentals," bank Jefferies analyst Lloyd Byrne says. By Stephen Cunningham Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Clean NH3 integration needs CoC methods: Hinicio


25/11/24
News
25/11/24

Clean NH3 integration needs CoC methods: Hinicio

London, 25 November (Argus) — Some ammonia producers are implementing their own chain of custody (CoC) approaches in order to incorporate upcoming reduced carbon tonnes into existing ammonia supply chains, ahead of unified regulation, certification or wide-scale clean ammonia availability. But approaches will vary, depending on whether producers are targeting regulatory or voluntary markets, Belgian-headquartered consulting firm Hinicio told Argus ahead of the Clean Ammonia Europe Conference in Rotterdam this month. Hinicio is consulting on three different ammonia certification schemes currently under development. The schemes are being developed in partnership with Fertilizers Europe, the Fertilizer Institute in the US and the Ammonia Energy Association, which is developing a global scheme. The schemes have a mix of both mass balance or book and claim CoC methods, as producers and buyers seek to optimise on cost and carbon intensity (CI) when clean ammonia tonnes become available. Clean ammonia includes renewable ammonia produced with electrolysis and renewable electricity, or ammonia produced with a natural gas feedstock that uses carbon capture and storage (CCS) to reduce carbon emissions. The mass balance approach is well established in other values chains and has been set forth by the EU as the regulatory standard in the Renewable Energy Directive, FuelEU Maritime and the Gas Directive. And the CoC method has already been adopted by ammonia producers such as Yara and OCI. In a mass balance approach, the ratio of sustainable material incorporated into the value chain is tracked and reflected in the products produced and sold to customers. Physical trade flow is accounted for and a defined time (reconciliation) period is assigned. "When talking about chain of custody, the European regulation really dictates to use mass balance for everything you want to call RFNBO or low-carbon in Europe, or for anything that you want to bring to Europe," Hinicio manager Thomas Winkel said. But a ‘book-and-claim' system grants significantly more flexibility for economic operators that are looking to trade in voluntary markets — where companies buying reduced carbon ammonia are looking to reduce scope 3 emissions or EU ETS obligations. Book and claim allows for physical flow of a product to be completely decoupled from attributes like CI. Characteristics are ‘booked' into a central registry to be ‘claimed' by consumers, without a connection to the physical material, like renewable electricity certificates. "The voluntary market is going towards a combination of mass balance and book and claim," Winkel said. Elements of book and claim can be employed if required, within geographic or other constrictions. But Europe's stance on CoC could force companies to employ mass balancing. "I think many players around the world are looking at Europe as their main export market and they are starting to understand their criteria well," Winkel said. Europe currently accounts for around one-fifth of global ammonia imports, or around 4mn-5mn t/yr, according to Argus line-up data. And at least a quarter of the 40-plus offtake agreements Argus is tracking from clean ammonia projects are likely to supply the European market. Renewable ammonia projects in India and Canada have received pre-certification of RFNBO compliance from certification body Certifhy, with European offtakers already lined up. Under currently announced agreements alone, at least 500,000t of renewable ammonia will be shipping to Europe from 2027, pending project delivery, with the potential for a substantial scale-up in volume as the decade draws to a close. That is excluding large-scale ammonia projects with CCS that are scheduled for start-up in the US in 2025-26 and are also eyeing the European market for export opportunities. "Mass balance is the standard — the schemes that are being developed that are for voluntary purposes allow a bit more flexibility otherwise," Winkle said. For most jurisdictions, the regulatory playbook is still being written. Australia, Japan, South Korea, the US and the UK are still developing regulations surrounding low-carbon fuels. But in the meantime, fledgling supply agreements for voluntary markets may opt for book and claim where possible. But regulatory markets in Europe have declared mass balance as the standard. The development of regulatory and certification schemes in other regions will determine global standards moving forward. By Lizzy Lancaster Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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US’ Peabody to buy Anglo’s Australian met coal assets


25/11/24
News
25/11/24

US’ Peabody to buy Anglo’s Australian met coal assets

Singapore, 25 November (Argus) — US coal producer Peabody Energy has agreed to acquire the bulk of coking coal assets that UK-South African mining firm Anglo American is seeking to divest as it exits the coal sector. Peabody plans to buy Anglo's majority stakes, at up to $3.8bn, in four metallurgical coal mines — Moranbah North, Grosvenor, Aquila and Capcoal — located in Australia's Bowen Basin, with the transaction expected to close by mid-2025 and subject to customary closing conditions, the producer said in a statement. With the acquisition of coal mines, Peabody's combined US-Australia production will rise from 10.6mn short tons/yr at present, to an estimate of 11.3mn st/yr (10.25mn t) by 2026, according to Peabody, strengthening the producer's position in the premium hard coking coal (PHCC) market. Moranbah North, Grosvenor and Aquila are PHCC mines, while Capcoal produces a combination of PHCC, pulverised coal injection (PCI) and other coal grades. At present, Australian low volatile hard coking coal, or tier-2 coking coal, accounts for 55pc of Peabody's 7.4mn st in coking coal sales, but the acquisition of new assets will bring PHCC's share up to 51pc and reduce its tier 2 coal to 24pc. Peabody also produces high volatile A coal in the US, accounting for 12pc of sales this year. In addition to the sale of assets to Peabody, Anglo has agreed to sell the Dawson mine in Central Queensland to Indonesian mining company PT Bukit Makmur Mandiri Utama (BUMA) for $455mn. Earlier this month, Anglo agreed the sale of its 33pc share of the [Jellinbah Group coking coal joint venture]https://direct.argusmedia.com/newsandanalysis/article/2624965) to partner Australia-based Zashvin at $A1.6bn ($1.04bn). In May, Anglo announced plans to exit its coal, platinum, nickel and diamond businesses shortly after rejecting repeated takeover bids from Australian resources firm BHP. These deals come against a backdrop of a challenging price environment for steel making and subsequent weakness in coking coal prices, implying tight margins for coal producers. After reaching a high of $336.50/t fob Australia, the premium low volatile coking coal fell steadily throughout this year to reach $176.50/t in September, before recovering to remain in the $201-208/t range for most of November. In addition to a less than friendly investment climate for coal projects, Australia's Queensland state and New South Wales (NSW) state governments increased royalties on coal sales in 2023 and 2024 respectively, putting further strain on Australian miners already facing inflationary pressure from wages, equipment and fuel costs. Lower coking coal prices this year have translated to reduced royalty payments, but have yet to stem the tide of consolidations and asset sales as mining companies exit the sector. In August, Australia-based diversified metals producer South32 completed the sale of its Illawarra coking coal operations in NSW to an entity owned by Singapore-based Golden Energy and Resources (Gear) and Australia's M Resources for $1.65bn. In the US, rising mining costs and weak seaborne prices for most of this year led to the closure of smaller high-cost operations and mergers such as that of Arch Resources and Consol Energy to form Core Natural Resources , expected to close by the first quarter of 2025. In July, trading firm Glencore completed its acquisition of a majority stake in Elk Valley Resources, the coking coal division of Canadian mining firm Teck Resources, growing the former's thermal and coking coal production to 130mn t/yr. By Siew Hua Seah Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Opinion: Bridging the divide


22/11/24
News
22/11/24

Opinion: Bridging the divide

Cop summits put the gap between developed and developing countries in stark relief and demand a strong moderator Baku, 22 November (Argus) — The UN's Cop climate summits always involve a high-stakes test of multilateralism. But the Cop 29 gathering that is crawling towards its conclusion in Baku this week has pushed this concept to its limit. The summit faced serious challenges even before it kicked off. Azerbaijan took on the presidency relatively late in the day and the country's president, Ilham Aliyev, irritated some delegates with an opening speech that lauded oil and gas as a "gift from God" and railed against "western fake news". His comments on European nations' Pacific island territories prompted France's energy minister to boycott the talks, while the Cop chief executive was caught on film trying to facilitate fossil fuel deals. And the broader geopolitical background for the gathering was, of course, "grim", as EU climate commissioner Wopke Hoekstra noted, even before delegates tackled the summit's key discussion topic — money. At the heart of this year's Cop is the need to agree a new climate finance goal — a hugely divisive subject at the best of times. Discussions start with countries' wealth, take into account historical responsibility for emissions, and often end up with accusations of neocolonialism and calls for reparations. Figuring out who pays for what is crucial to advancing any kind of meaningful energy transition — and is hence a regular Cop sticking point. Developing countries have long argued that they are not able to decarbonise or implement energy transition plans without adequate financing, and they are prepared to hold other issues hostage to achieve this. Equally, developed countries will not budge on finance until stronger emissions cuts are pledged. Cop summits throw the developed/developing world divide into stark relief as well as shine an unforgiving light on weak management and oversight of Cop debate — an event where every country has an equal vote and needs a strong moderator to bridge that deepening developed and developing world division. This year's summit falls between two much more heavily-hyped Cops, and next year's host Brazil has already taken centre stage, boosted by also holding the G20 presidency. Cop 29 president Mukhtar Babayev asked Brazil and 2021 host the UK to help ensure a balanced outcome, while a strong focus on climate at this week's G20 summit in Rio de Janeiro lent some support to discussions in Baku. More challenges loom. US president-elect Donald Trump has threatened to pull the US — the world's second-largest greenhouse gas emitter — out of the UN Paris Agreement for a second time, and there are fears that fellow G20 member Argentina might quit too. But the Cop process has dealt with some of these challenges before — it is built to withstand a term or two of an unsympathetic world leader, and any exits from the Paris accord could galvanise others to step up their policy commitments, several delegates in Baku suggest. And the issue overshadowing it all — and the reason nearly 200 countries still turn up each year — is not going away. The world has already warmed by around 1.3°C above pre-industrial levels and this year is set to smash last year's record as the hottest. Leaders from both developed and developing countries spoke of catastrophic floods, droughts, heatwaves and storms. It has become a truism, but when it comes to the tricky issue of money, the only thing more daunting than the cost of tackling climate change is the cost of ignoring it. Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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