Global ammonia trade is forecast to increase to 19.3mn t in 2021, after falling by an estimated 800,000-900,000t this year to 18.7mn t because of the impact of Covid-19, according to Argus Analytics.
Global ammonia demand, particularly for industrial use, has fallen significantly this year in line with Covid-19 lockdowns and containment measures. But some buying regions have outperformed expectations, particularly Morocco and China, both of which have shown steady rates of demand this year. India, one of the largest global import regions, is expected to lose about 200,000t of ammonia demand this year, falling to 2.5mn t.
A series of supply cuts have balanced the drop-off in demand, particularly in Trinidad, which has removed 500,000t of capacity this year, with annual exports forecast at 3.9-4.0mn t. Some Russian production curtailments have further supported the market, with projected exports 300,000t lower on the year, at 4.4mn t.
The medium-term outlook is stable and prices are forecast to firm. East Asian demand and high European gas costs are supporting market sentiment into early 2021. Industrial demand is starting to recover in east of Suez markets but the outlook remains uncertain in the west. India and Morocco are forecast to add 500,000t of demand next year, and no new export capacity is scheduled to come on stream until late 2021.
Argus Analytics is part of Argus Consulting Services, a division of Argus Media. The group's forecasts and analyses are separate and independent of Argus' news and price assessment business.
