Generic Hero BannerGeneric Hero Banner
Latest market news

Indonesia behind on 2020 coal export target

  • Market: Coal
  • 01/12/20

Indonesia may fall short of a government-set target to export 400mn t of coal this year, having shipped a little more than 329mn t in January-October.

Indonesia, the world's largest thermal coal exporter, shipped a seven-month high of 32.1mn t in October, although this was still down by 8.9mn t on the year, according to customs data released today.

Exports in October represented a recovery from the 43-month low 28.2mn t that was shipped in the previous month, but the rate of supply to the seaborne market would need to accelerate further to hit the government's 2020 goal.

Shipments for the first 10 months of this year declined by about 14.1pc, or 53.9mn t, on the year to 329.3mn t, leaving 70.7mn t, or 35.3mn t/month, to reach the annual target of 400mn t. Indonesian exports averaged 37.9mn t/month in November-December last year, but the rate dropped to 32.9mn t/month in January-October this year.

The potential shortfall in seaborne exports, coupled with lower domestic consumption and relatively firm production, suggests that the Indonesian market remains oversupplied heading into the new year.

Indonesia produced 46.4mn t/month in January-October, according to energy ministry data, putting the country on course to achieve the government's 550mn t 2020 output goal. Mining companies would need to produce 42.9mn t/month in November-December to meet the goal, but they look more likely to exceed that target based on the recent production rate.

Of the 500mn t production targeted, the government earmarked about 150mn t for the domestic sector and 400mn t for export. But the economic impact of the Covid-19 pandemic limited domestic consumption to only 109mn t in January-October, implying at least a 19mn t shortfall in annual domestic demand.

This, in addition to a potential shortfall in export demand and stronger-than-expected production, is likely to have supported inventories across the country this year. But the government expects domestic coal demand to rebound strongly to 172mn t next year and Chinese demand for Indonesian exports could strengthen in the new year when import quotas are refreshed, which could help to rebalance fundamentals in the coming months.

Indonesia produced a record 616.2mn t last year and domestic consumption totalled 138mn t, according to energy ministry data. Total coal exports reached 459.1mn t, according to customs data. Argus' fob Indonesia GAR 4,200 kcal/kg price assessment has recovered by 26pc since 1 October to reach $31.63/t on 27 November.

China continues to drag on Indonesian exports

Indonesian exports to India almost recovered to last year's level in September-October, but shipments to China remained sharply lower.

Tight import restrictions in China, the biggest importer of Indonesian coal, contributed towards a 30.2mn t year-on-year decline in January-October exports to 93.8mn t, customs data show. This includes a 6.9mn t drop in October to 5.7mn t, although this was up from the 3.2mn t dispatched in September.

China's thermal coal imports declined in October by 62pc on the year, to their lowest level since December 2019, as most regions ran out of import quotas.

Chinese imports in November and December are likely to rebound, as Beijing considers allocating an additional 20mn t of 2020 import quotas to cope with domestic supply tightness and strong winter demand. But an additional 20mn t of Chinese import quotas is unlikely to be enough on its own to offset weaker exports earlier this year and raise Indonesian shipments to the 400mn t level.

High inventories in India, the second-biggest importer of Indonesian coal, along with sluggish demand because of Covid-19-related lockdowns, has also weighed on import demand.

Indonesia's exports to India declined by 21mn t, or 21pc, on the year to 79.3mn t in January-October, customs data show. A combination of higher availability from state-controlled producer Coal India, high domestic inventories and Delhi's push to replace imports with domestic coal have weighed heavily on India's demand for seaborne coal so far this year.

But exports to India were only 13pc lower on the year in October and exceeded 10mn t in total for a second consecutive month, from as low as 3.5mn t in May.

Indian power-sector coal consumption rose on the year for a second consecutive month in October, but overall seaborne receipts continued to lag 2019. The sector's imports reached 4.64mn t in October, sustaining a recovery that began in July, but were still down by 1.38mn t on the year, Central Electricity Authority data show.

Exports to northeast Asia, excluding China, have also suffered this year — falling by 9.8mn t in January-October — with only Japan sustaining demand at last year's level.

Indonesian exporters have offset lower demand to some extent in their core markets with stronger sales to southeast Asia. Exports to southeast Asia grew by 6mn t on the year in January-October to 73.6mn t and were up by 900,000t in October alone. The year-to-date growth was driven by Vietnam (+3.3mn t), the Philippines (+2.2mn t) and Malaysia (+1.5mn t), in particular.

Indonesian coal exports mn t

Indonesian coal production mn t

Indonesian Jan-Oct exports mn t

Sharelinkedin-sharetwitter-sharefacebook-shareemail-share

Related news posts

Argus illuminates the markets by putting a lens on the areas that matter most to you. The market news and commentary we publish reveals vital insights that enable you to make stronger, well-informed decisions. Explore a selection of news stories related to this one.

News
03/04/25

Funding cuts could delay US river lock renovations

Funding cuts could delay US river lock renovations

Houston, 3 April (Argus) — The US Army Corps of Engineers (Corps) will have to choose between various lock reconstruction and waterway projects for its annual construction plan after its funding was cut earlier this year. Last year Congress allowed the Corps to use $800mn from unspent infrastructure funds for other waterways projects. But when Congress passed a continuing resolutions for this year's budget they effectively removed that $800mn from what was a $2.6bn annual budget for lock reconstruction and waterways projects. This means a construction plan that must be sent to Congress by 14 May can only include $1.8bn in spending. No specific projects were allocated funding by Congress, allowing the Corps the final say on what projects it pursues under the new budget. River industry trade group Waterways Council said its top priority is for the Corps to provide a combined $205mn for work at the Montgomery lock in Pennsylvania on the Ohio River and Chickamauga lock in Tennesee on the Tennessee River since they are the nearest to completion and could become more expensive if further delayed. There are seven active navigation construction projects expected to take precedent, including the following: the Chickamauga and Kentucky Locks on the Tennessee River; Locks 2-4 on the Monongahela River; the Three Rivers project on the Arkansas River; the LaGrange Lock and Lock 25 on the Illinois River; and the Montgomery Lock on the Ohio River. There are three other locks in Texas, Pennsylvania and Illinois that are in the active design phase (see map) . By Meghan Yoyotte Corps active construction projects 2025 Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Find out more
News

Trump to 'stand firm' on tariffs as markets crash


03/04/25
News
03/04/25

Trump to 'stand firm' on tariffs as markets crash

Washington, 3 April (Argus) — President Donald Trump does not intend to back down from his plan for sweeping import tariffs that have already caused a sell-off in global equity markets and some commodities, administration officials say. The tariffs — which will start at 10pc for most imports on 5 April before steeper country-specific tariffs take effect on 9 April, with exceptions for some energy and mineral imports — have caused key stock indexes to drop by as much as 5pc, with even larger declines in crude futures, as investors brace for lower growth and a higher chance of a recession. Trump earlier today defended the tariffs, as he prepared to leave the White House for a dinner tonight at a golf tournament at one of his resorts in Florida. "THE OPERATION IS OVER! THE PATIENT LIVED, AND IS HEALING," Trump wrote in a social media post before major stock markets opened. Trump's cabinet has downplayed the short-term price effect of the tariffs, which they say will boost economic growth in the US and cause a resurgence in domestic manufacturing. US commerce secretary Howard Lutnick said he does not think there is "any chance" that Trump will rescind the tariffs, and said Trump will only begin to work on new trade deals once a country has "really, really changed their ways" on trade practices. "Trump is going to stand firm because he is reordering global trade," Lutnick said today in an interview with CNN. "Make no mistake about it, America has been exploited, and he is done allowing America to be exploited." Other administration officials have suggested a greater potential for lower tariffs in the near-term. US treasury secretary Scott Bessent has encouraged world leaders to "take a deep breath" and not to "panic" because the tariff rates that Trump announced were a "ceiling" that might come down, so long as there was no retaliation. "Don't immediately retaliate, let's see where this goes, because if you retaliate, that's how we get escalation," Bessent said on 2 April during interview on Fox News. The tariffs have caused bipartisan backlash on Capitol Hill, but so far legislative action has been symbolic and unlikely to become law. The US Senate, in a bipartisan vote on 2 April, approved a joint resolution that would end the justification Trump has used to put tariffs on Canada. US senators Chuck Grassley (R-Iowa) and Maria Cantwell (D-Washington) introduced a bill today to eliminate most new presidential tariffs after 60 days without approval by the US Congress. Democrats say the tariffs will force consumers to pay far more on everyday goods, with revenue offsetting Republican plans to provide more than $5 trillion in tax cuts. "Donald Trump is using tariffs in the dumbest way imaginable. In fact, Donald Trump slapped tariffs on penguins and not on Putin," US Senate minority leader Chuck Schumer (D-New York) said today, in reference to Trump's decision to put a 10pc tariff on an island populated only with penguins. Trump has claimed his country-specific tariffs are "reciprocal" even though they have no relation to the tariffs each country charges on US imports. Instead, Trump's tariffs were calculated based on a universal equation that is set at half of the country's trade deficit with the US, divided by the country's imports from the US, with a minimum tariff rate of 10pc. Major US trading partners are preparing for retaliatory tariffs. Canada's prime minister Mark Carney said he would respond to Trump's tariffs on automobiles, which took effect today, by "matching the US approach" and imposing a 25pc tariff on auto imports that do not comply with the US-Mexico-Canada free trade agreement. China said it was preparing unspecified countermeasures to US tariffs that would be set at 54pc. Trump's cabinet today dismissed the market reaction to the tariffs. Stock markets are going through a "short-term adjustment" but the tariffs will ultimately result in more growth and additional investments, US Small Business Administration administrator Kelly Loeffler said today in an interview on Fox News "The gravy train is over for the globalist elites," said Loeffler, who previously was a top executive at US exchange operator ICE. By Chris Knight Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

News

Mexico manufacturing extends contraction in March


02/04/25
News
02/04/25

Mexico manufacturing extends contraction in March

Mexico City, 2 April (Argus) — Mexico's manufacturing sector contracted for a 12th consecutive month in March, with production and employment both deepening their slides, according to a survey released today. The manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) ticked up to 47.2 in March from 47.1 in February, but remained below the 50-point threshold between contraction and expansion, according to the latest PMI survey from the finance executive association IMEF. Manufacturing, which accounts for about a fifth of Mexico's economy, is led by the auto sector, contributing about 18pc of manufacturing GDP. Within the manufacturing PMI, the new orders index rose by 1.3 points to 45.3, still deep in contraction. Meanwhile, production fell by 0.6 points to 44.6. The employment index also declined 0.6 points to 46.4 in March, now in contraction for 14 consecutive months. Meanwhile, the non-manufacturing PMI — covering services and commerce — declined 0.8 points to 48.8 in March from 49.6 in February, holding in contraction for a fourth consecutive month. Within the non-manufacturing PMI, new orders fell 1.5 points to 48.2 and production declined 1 point to 47.5 with employment down a point as well in March to 47.5, as all three pushed deeper into contraction. In contrast, the inventories component rose 3.5 points to 50.6 into expansion territory in March. But this may be the result of company strategies to stockpile inventories ahead of US tariffs and the reciprocal measures Mexico is set to announce on 3 April, IMEF technical advisory board member Sergio Luna said. PMI data show that the economic stagnation that began in late 2024 persisted through March, with results from January and February pointing to a sharp slowdown in the first quarter, IMEF said. This follows annualized GDP growth of 0.5pc in the fourth quarter of 2024, slowing from 1.7pc in the third quarter, according to national statistics agency data. Luna said concerns over US tariffs continue to drive much of the uncertainty reflected in the PMI data. Internal factors — such as reduced government spending to contain the fiscal deficit and investor unease over judicial reforms passed last year — are also weighing on activity, Luna added. By James Young Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

News

Global energy mix evolves as electricity demand surges


28/03/25
News
28/03/25

Global energy mix evolves as electricity demand surges

Climate change is becoming a bigger factor behind electrification, but cleaner energy use is slowing the growth in global emissions, writes Georgia Gratton London, 28 March (Argus) — A substantial increase in electricity demand — boosted by extreme weather — drove an overall rise in global energy demand in 2024, lifting it well above the average pace of increase in recent years, OECD energy watchdog the IEA announced this week. This led to a rise in natural gas consumption, although renewables and nuclear shouldered the majority of the increase in demand, leaving oil's share of total energy demand below 30pc for the first time. Global energy demand rose by 2.2pc in 2024 compared with 2023 — higher than the average demand increase of 1.3pc/yr between 2013 and 2023 — according to the Paris-based agency's Global Energy Review . Global electricity consumption increased faster, by 4.3pc, driven by record-high temperatures — that led to increased cooling needs — as well as growing industrial consumption, the electrification of transport and the rapid growth of power-hungry data centres needed to support the boom in artificial intelligence, the IEA says. Renewables and nuclear covered the majority of growth in electricity demand, at 80pc, while supply of gas-fired power generation "also increased steadily", the IEA says. New renewable power installations reached about 700GW in 2024 — a new high. Solar power led the pack, rising by about 550GW last year. The power generation and overall energy mix is changing, as economies shift towards electrification. The rate of increase in coal demand slowed to 1.1pc in 2024, around half the pace seen in 2023. Coal remained the single biggest source of power generation in 2024, at 35pc, but renewable power sources and nuclear together made up 41pc of total generation last year, IEA data show. Nuclear power use is expected to hit its highest ever this year, the agency says. And "growth in global oil demand slowed markedly in 2024", the IEA says, rising by 0.8pc compared with 1.9pc in 2023. A rise in electric vehicle (EV) purchases was a key contributor to the drop in oil demand for road transport, and this offset "a significant proportion" of the rise in oil consumption for aviation and petrochemicals, the IEA says. Blowing hot and coal Much of the growth in coal consumption last year was down to "intense heatwaves" — particularly in China and India, the IEA found. These "contributed more than 90pc of the total annual increase in coal consumption globally", for cooling needs. The IEA repeatedly noted the significant effect that extreme weather in 2024 had on energy systems and demand patterns. Last year was the hottest ever recorded, beating the previous record set in 2023, and for CO2 emissions, "weather effects" made up about half of the 2024 increase, the watchdog found. "Weather effects contributed about 15pc of the overall increase in global energy demand," according to the IEA. Global cooling degree days were 6pc higher on the year in 2024, and 20pc higher than the 2000-20 average. But the "continued rapid adoption of clean energy technologies" restricted the rise in energy-related CO2 emissions, which fell to 0.8pc in 2024 from 1.2pc in 2023, the IEA says. Energy-related CO2 emissions — including flaring — still hit a record high of 37.8bn t in 2024, but the rise in emissions was lower than global GDP growth. Key "clean energy technologies" — solar, wind and nuclear power, EVs and heat pumps — collectively now prevent about 2.6bn t/yr CO2 of emissions, the IEA says. But there remains an emissions divide between advanced and developing economies. "The majority of emissions growth in 2024 came from emerging and developing economies other than China," the agency says, while advanced economies such as the UK and EU cut emissions last year and continue to push ahead with decarbonisation. Global energy suppy by fuel EJ Growth ±% 2024 2023 2022 24/23 23/22 Total 648 634 622 2.2 1.8 Renewables 97 92 89 5.8 3.1 Nuclear 31 30 29 3.7 2.2 Natural gas 149 145 144 2.7 0.7 Oil 193 192 188 0.8 1.9 Coal 177 175 172 1.2 2.0 Global power generation by fuel TWh Growth ±% 2024 2023 2022 24/23 23/22 Total 31,153 29,897 29,153 4.2 2.6 Renewables 9,992 9,074 8,643 10.0 5.0 Nuclear 2,844 2,743 2,684 3.7 2.2 Natural gas 6,793 6,622 6,526 2.6 1.5 Oil 738 762 801 -3.2 -4.8 Coal 10,736 10,645 10,452 0.9 1.8 Global power generation by country TWh Growth ±% 2024 2023 2022 24/23 23/22 World 31,153 29,897 29,153 4.2 2.6 US 4,556 4,419 4,473 3.1 -1.2 EU 2,769 2,718 2,792 1.9 -2.6 China 10,205 9,564 8,947 6.7 6.9 India 2,059 1,958 1,814 5.2 7.9 Global CO2 emissions by country mn t Growth ±% 2024 2023 2022 24/23 23/22 World 37,566 37,270 36,819 0.8 1.2 US 4,546 4,567 4,717 -0.5 -3.2 EU 2,401 2,455 2,683 -2.2 -8.5 China 12,603 12,552 12,013 0.4 4.5 India 2,987 2,836 2,691 5.3 5.4 *includes industrial process emissions — IEA Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

News

Several countries have met fossil finance pledge: CSO


27/03/25
News
27/03/25

Several countries have met fossil finance pledge: CSO

London, 27 March (Argus) — Two-thirds of "high-income" signatories that pledged to end public finance for international fossil fuels have policies in place that realise their commitment, civil society organisation (CSO) Oil Change International said today. Of the 17 "high-income" signatories, 11 are compliant, Oil Change found. They total ten developed countries — Australia, Canada, Denmark, Finland, France, New Zealand, Norway, Spain, Sweden and the UK — as well as EU development institution the European Investment Bank (EIB). The policy details vary, "but all put a complete halt to investments in new oil and gas extraction and LNG infrastructure", Oil Change said. The pledge referred to — the Clean Energy Transition Partnership (CETP) — was launched at the UN Cop 21 climate summit in 2021. It aims to shift international public finance "from the unabated fossil fuel energy sector to the clean energy transition". Signatories commit to ending new direct public support for overseas unabated fossil fuel projects within a year of joining. Other countries have updated policy to restrict fossil fuel financing abroad, but Oil Change has deemed them not in line with the pledge made. Belgium's policy "breaches the end-of-2022 deadline, allowing support for projects that have received promise of insurance by July 2022 into 2023", Oil Change said. The Netherlands allows some projects that requested support in 2022 to be approved in 2023, while there are "energy security exemptions and exemptions for some continued support in low-income countries", Oil Change said. The CSO assessed Germany's policy as containing a number of "major loopholes", including not ruling out public finance for gas infrastructure and gas-fired power plants. And it noted that Italy's policy for its export credit agency "allows fossil fuel finance to continue virtually unhindered". Germany has provided $1.5bn across 11 projects since the 2022 deadline passed, while Italy approved nearly $1.1bn for four projects in 2023, Oil Change said. Oil Change classed Switzerland's policy as "severely misaligned", while Portugal has not submitted a policy and the US has withdrawn from the agreement. The US provided $3.7bn for 12 international fossil fuel projects between end-2022 and end-2024, while it approved $4.7bn for the Mozambique LNG project after leaving the CETP. The CETP now has 40 signatories including five development banks and 35 countries. By Georgia Gratton Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Generic Hero Banner

Business intelligence reports

Get concise, trustworthy and unbiased analysis of the latest trends and developments in oil and energy markets. These reports are specially created for decision makers who don’t have time to track markets day-by-day, minute-by-minute.

Learn more