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Indonesia behind on 2020 coal export target

  • Market: Coal
  • 01/12/20

Indonesia may fall short of a government-set target to export 400mn t of coal this year, having shipped a little more than 329mn t in January-October.

Indonesia, the world's largest thermal coal exporter, shipped a seven-month high of 32.1mn t in October, although this was still down by 8.9mn t on the year, according to customs data released today.

Exports in October represented a recovery from the 43-month low 28.2mn t that was shipped in the previous month, but the rate of supply to the seaborne market would need to accelerate further to hit the government's 2020 goal.

Shipments for the first 10 months of this year declined by about 14.1pc, or 53.9mn t, on the year to 329.3mn t, leaving 70.7mn t, or 35.3mn t/month, to reach the annual target of 400mn t. Indonesian exports averaged 37.9mn t/month in November-December last year, but the rate dropped to 32.9mn t/month in January-October this year.

The potential shortfall in seaborne exports, coupled with lower domestic consumption and relatively firm production, suggests that the Indonesian market remains oversupplied heading into the new year.

Indonesia produced 46.4mn t/month in January-October, according to energy ministry data, putting the country on course to achieve the government's 550mn t 2020 output goal. Mining companies would need to produce 42.9mn t/month in November-December to meet the goal, but they look more likely to exceed that target based on the recent production rate.

Of the 500mn t production targeted, the government earmarked about 150mn t for the domestic sector and 400mn t for export. But the economic impact of the Covid-19 pandemic limited domestic consumption to only 109mn t in January-October, implying at least a 19mn t shortfall in annual domestic demand.

This, in addition to a potential shortfall in export demand and stronger-than-expected production, is likely to have supported inventories across the country this year. But the government expects domestic coal demand to rebound strongly to 172mn t next year and Chinese demand for Indonesian exports could strengthen in the new year when import quotas are refreshed, which could help to rebalance fundamentals in the coming months.

Indonesia produced a record 616.2mn t last year and domestic consumption totalled 138mn t, according to energy ministry data. Total coal exports reached 459.1mn t, according to customs data. Argus' fob Indonesia GAR 4,200 kcal/kg price assessment has recovered by 26pc since 1 October to reach $31.63/t on 27 November.

China continues to drag on Indonesian exports

Indonesian exports to India almost recovered to last year's level in September-October, but shipments to China remained sharply lower.

Tight import restrictions in China, the biggest importer of Indonesian coal, contributed towards a 30.2mn t year-on-year decline in January-October exports to 93.8mn t, customs data show. This includes a 6.9mn t drop in October to 5.7mn t, although this was up from the 3.2mn t dispatched in September.

China's thermal coal imports declined in October by 62pc on the year, to their lowest level since December 2019, as most regions ran out of import quotas.

Chinese imports in November and December are likely to rebound, as Beijing considers allocating an additional 20mn t of 2020 import quotas to cope with domestic supply tightness and strong winter demand. But an additional 20mn t of Chinese import quotas is unlikely to be enough on its own to offset weaker exports earlier this year and raise Indonesian shipments to the 400mn t level.

High inventories in India, the second-biggest importer of Indonesian coal, along with sluggish demand because of Covid-19-related lockdowns, has also weighed on import demand.

Indonesia's exports to India declined by 21mn t, or 21pc, on the year to 79.3mn t in January-October, customs data show. A combination of higher availability from state-controlled producer Coal India, high domestic inventories and Delhi's push to replace imports with domestic coal have weighed heavily on India's demand for seaborne coal so far this year.

But exports to India were only 13pc lower on the year in October and exceeded 10mn t in total for a second consecutive month, from as low as 3.5mn t in May.

Indian power-sector coal consumption rose on the year for a second consecutive month in October, but overall seaborne receipts continued to lag 2019. The sector's imports reached 4.64mn t in October, sustaining a recovery that began in July, but were still down by 1.38mn t on the year, Central Electricity Authority data show.

Exports to northeast Asia, excluding China, have also suffered this year — falling by 9.8mn t in January-October — with only Japan sustaining demand at last year's level.

Indonesian exporters have offset lower demand to some extent in their core markets with stronger sales to southeast Asia. Exports to southeast Asia grew by 6mn t on the year in January-October to 73.6mn t and were up by 900,000t in October alone. The year-to-date growth was driven by Vietnam (+3.3mn t), the Philippines (+2.2mn t) and Malaysia (+1.5mn t), in particular.

Indonesian coal exports mn t

Indonesian coal production mn t

Indonesian Jan-Oct exports mn t

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Trump to declare energy 'emergency': Update 2

Updates with details throughout Washington, 20 January (Argus) — President Donald Trump today signed an executive order declaring a "national energy emergency" and said he plans to impose 25pc tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico on 1 February. Returning to the White House for a second term, Trump signed a series of executive orders on energy and trade that he said will restore "common sense" to US policy. His orders aim to expedite permitting of energy infrastructure, tackle inflation, roll back climate programs put in place under former president Joe Biden and pursue a "drill, baby, drill" energy policy. In declaring a national energy emergency, Trump's order contends the Biden administration left a "precariously inadequate and intermittent energy supply, and an increasingly unreliable grid" that required swift action. Trump also froze all federal regulations, placed a temporary hold on hiring non-military federal workers, rescinded 78 Biden executive actions and memoranda and began rolling back Biden's climate legacy. "I'm immediately withdrawing from the unfair, one-sided Paris climate accord rip-off," Trump said at a rally held after his second inaugural ceremony. Trump's declaration of an "energy emergency" could bolster the legal rationale for some of energy policies and plans to expedite permitting. Trump also said he plans to end the "Green New Deal" — a reference to climate programs enacted under Biden — and revoke an "electric vehicle mandate" he said is threatening the US auto manufacturing sector. Trump also vowed to begin an "overhaul" of the US trade system to protect domestic workers and reiterated his support for tariffs, which he sees as a way to raise government revenue and support domestic manufacturing. "Tariffs are going to make us rich as hell," Trump said. They are "going to bring our country's businesses back that left us". While Trump is reiterating his threat to impose tariffs on Canada and Mexico, oil industry officials have warned such a move could disrupt the nearly 4mn b/d of crude the US imports from Canada. Trump stopped short of promised to erect tariffs on all US imports, saying: "We're not ready for that." On foreign policy, Trump said the US would "reclaim its rightful place" as the most powerful country in the world and reiterated plans to rename the Gulf of Mexico as the Gulf of America. Trump also promised still-unspecified actions to take control of the US-built Panama Canal in response to what he says has been unfair treatment of US ships, a claim that Panamanian president Jose Raul Mulino has rejected. "We gave it to Panama, and we're taking it back," Trump said during his second inaugural address. Trump signed an order to ease drilling restrictions in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge and the National Petroleum Reserve in Alaska, while also prioritizing the development of the proposed 20mn t/yr Alaska LNG export terminal. Trump also said he wants to refill the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR), which is at 55pc of its capacity with 394mn bl of crude in storage, "right to the top". Refilling the SPR would require the US Congress to appropriate $32bn at current prices, to offset the costs of canceling 100mn bl of upcoming mandatory crude sales and buying about 300mn bl of crude. Trump signed an order to rescind a series of climate-related orders Biden had issued, measures the new administration says places "undue burdens" on energy production. And he imposed a temporary moratorium on leasing acreage in federal waters for wind projects. "We're not going to do the wind thing," Trump said. That drew an outcry from offshore wind advocacy group Turn Forward, whose executive director Hillary Bright said an emergency should require unleashing "all necessary sources of American energy — including offshore wind". During his campaign, Trump promised to cut the price of energy by 50pc within 12 months of taking office. But with regular grade gasoline averaging close to $3/USG and Henry Hub natural gas prices less $4/mmBtu this month, such a dramatic cut in prices would be difficult to achieve without causing major disruptions to industry. Environmentalists and Democratic-led states are also preparing to file lawsuits challenging Trump's deregulatory actions, a strategy they used during his first term with mixed success. Trump was sworn in in a relatively small ceremony inside the US Capitol, after calling off a more traditional, outdoor inauguration because of temperatures that were hovering around 23° F. Among those in attendance was Telsa chief executive Elon Musk, who spent more than $250mn to help elect Trump and is chairing a cost-cutting advisory panel. After being sworn in, Trump formally nominated his cabinet members, leaving it up to the Republican-controlled US Senate to hold confirmation votes. Trump also named Republicans to lead 15 independent agencies. Trump named Mark Christie as chairman of the US Federal Energy Regulatory Commission; Mark Uyeda as acting chair of the US Securities and Exchange Commission; and Patrick Fuchs as chair of the US Surface Transportation Board. Caroline Pham became acting chairman of the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission through a vote of its members. By Chris Knight Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Trump to declare energy 'emergency': Update


21/01/25
News
21/01/25

Trump to declare energy 'emergency': Update

Updates with changes throughout Washington, 20 January (Argus) — President Donald Trump pledged today to declare a "national energy emergency" as one of the first acts of his second term in office and has signed a series of executive orders designed to bring down energy costs, including pulling the US out of the Paris climate agreement. The executive orders on energy, trade and other issues will restore "common sense" in US policy, Trump said during his second inaugural address, moments after being sworn in at the US Capitol. The executive orders and emergency declaration are intended to expedite permitting of energy infrastructure, tackle inflation, roll back climate programs put in place under former president Joe Biden and pursue what Trump says is a policy to "drill, baby, drill". Trump signed his first set of executive orders during a rally tonight with supporters and plans to sign more orders later tonight at the White House. The first executive orders will implement an "immediate regulation freeze", put a temporary hold on hiring workers and rescind 78 of Biden's executive actions and memoranda. Trump also signed a directive to federal agencies to take steps to reduce the cost-of-living, along with a separate order that will withdraw the US from the Paris climate accord for a second time. "I'm immediately withdrawing from the unfair, one-sided Paris climate accord rip-off," Trump said at a rally later in the day. "The United States will not sabotage their own industries while China pollutes with impunity." Trump's declaration of an "energy emergency" could bolster the legal rationale for some of energy policies and plans to expedite permitting. Trump also said he plans to end the "Green New Deal" — a reference to climate programs enacted under Biden — and revoke an "electric vehicle mandate" he said is threatening the US auto manufacturing sector. Trump also vowed to begin an "overhaul" of the US trade system to protect domestic workers and reiterated his support for tariffs, which he sees as a way to raise government revenue and support domestic manufacturing. "Tariffs are going to make us rich as hell," Trump said. They are "going to bring our country's businesses back that left us." But it remains unclear if Trump will move ahead with his threatened 25pc tariff against Canada that oil industry officials have said could disrupt the nearly 4mn b/d of crude the US imports from Canada. On foreign policy, Trump said the US would "reclaim its rightful place" as the most powerful country in the world and reiterated plans to rename the Gulf of Mexico as the Gulf of America. Trump also promised still-unspecified actions to take control of the US-built Panama Canal in response to what he says has been unfair treatment of US ships, a threat that Panamanian president Jose Raul Mulino has rejected . "We gave it to Panama, and we're taking it back," Trump said. Trump is expected to take action soon to restart licensing of US LNG export terminals and support drilling in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge. Trump said he wants the US to take advantage of its vast oil and gas reserves, which he said would reduce energy prices and increase energy exports. Trump also said he wants to refill the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR), which is at 55pc of its capacity with 394mn bl of crude in storage, "right to the top". Refilling the SPR would require the US Congress to appropriate $32bn at current prices, to offset the costs of canceling 100mn bl of upcoming mandatory crude sales and buying about 300mn bl of crude. Trump has yet to specify which parts of Biden's climate legislation he will work to overturn, which also would require congressional action. But the White House said the administration would consider rescinding all federal rules that put "undue burdens" on energy producers and stop leasing federal land to wind farms. "We're not going to do the wind thing," Trump said. That drew an outcry from offshore wind advocacy group Turn Forward, whose executive director Hillary Bright said an emergency should require unleashing "all necessary sources of American energy — including offshore wind." During his campaign, Trump promised to cut the price of energy by 50pc within 12 months of taking office. But with regular grade gasoline averaging close to $3/USG and Henry Hub natural gas prices less $4/mmBtu this month, such a dramatic cut in prices would be difficult to achieve without causing major disruptions to industry. Environmentalists and Democratic-led states are also preparing to file lawsuits challenging Trump's deregulatory actions, a strategy they used during his first term with mixed success. Trump was sworn in in a relatively small ceremony inside the US Capitol, after calling off a more traditional, outdoor inauguration because of temperatures that were hovering around 23° F. Among those in attendance was Telsa chief executive Elon Musk, who spent more than $250mn to help elect Trump and is chairing a cost-cutting advisory panel. After being sworn in, Trump formally nominated his cabinet members, leaving it up to the Republican-controlled US Senate to hold confirmation votes. Trump also named Republicans to lead 15 independent agencies. Trump named Mark Christie as chairman of the US Federal Energy Regulatory Commission, Mark Uyeda as acting chair of the US Securities and Exchange Commission,and Patrick Fuchs as chair of the US Surface Transportation Board. Caroline Pham became acting chairman of the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission through a vote of its members. By Chris Knight Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Trump sworn in with vow to 'drill, baby, drill'


20/01/25
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20/01/25

Trump sworn in with vow to 'drill, baby, drill'

Washington, 20 January (Argus) — President Donald Trump, within minutes of being sworn in for a second term in office, pledged today to declare a "national energy emergency" and sign executive orders to expand drilling, block electric vehicle regulations and end the climate policies of his predecessor. In his second inaugural address delivered inside the rotunda of the US Capitol, Trump vowed to put "America first" and make the US "greater, stronger and far more exceptional than ever before". Trump said he will sign a raft of executive orders to restore "common sense" in US policy, including a directive for his administration to "defeat" inflation by increasing drilling and rolling back climate-related policies. "The inflation crisis was caused by massive overspending and escalating energy prices, and that is why today I will also declare a national energy emergency," Trump said. "We will drill, baby, drill." It remains unclear if Trump will take action soon on his plan to pursue across-the-board import tariffs, or a threatened 25pc tariff against Canada that oil industry officials have said could disrupt the nearly 4mn b/d of crude the US imports from Canada. Trump said today he would immediately begin an "overhaul" of the US trade system to protect domestic workers and to start to "tariff and tax foreign countries to enrich our citizens". In an often-dark, bellicose address reminiscent of his "American carnage" speech eight years ago, the 47th president of the US promised to "reverse the horrible betrayal" and "give the people back their faith, their wealth, their democracy and, indeed ,their freedom. "From this moment on, America's decline is over," Trump declared. In foreign policy, Trump said the US would "reclaim its rightful place" as the most powerful country in the world and reiterated plans to rename the Gulf of Mexico as the Gulf of America. Trump also promised still-unspecified actions to take control of the US-built Panama Canal in response to what he says has been unfair treatment of US ships, a threat that president Jose Raul Mulino has rejected . "We gave it to Panama, and we're taking it back," Trump said. Trump's declaration of an "energy emergency" could bolster the legal rationale for some of energy policies and plans to expedite permitting. US interior secretary nominee Doug Burgum, at a confirmation hearing last week, said emergency action was needed because of a looming "crisis" with the electric grid that he said could result in higher prices and slowing the growth of artificial intelligence data centers. Trump is expected to take action soon to restart licensing of US LNG export terminals and support drilling in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge (ANWR). Trump said he wanted the US to take advantage of its vast oil and gas reserves, which he said would reduce energy prices, increase energy exports and refill the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve, which now holds 394mn bl of crude and is at 55pc of its capacity, "right to the top". Trump also said he plans to end the "Green New Deal" — a reference to climate programs enacted under former president Joe Biden — and revoke a federal "electric vehicle mandate" he said is threatening the US auto manufacturing sector. Trump has yet to specify which parts of Biden's climate legislation he will overturn, but the White House said the administration intends to consider rescinding all federal regulations that impose "undue burdens" on energy production, end leasing of federal land to wind farms and roll back energy efficiency standards for consumer goods. The White House also said Trump will once again pull the US out of the Paris climate agreement. During his campaign, Trump promised he would cut the price of energy by 50pc within 12 months of taking office. But with regular grade gasoline averaging close to $3/USG and Henry Hub natural gas prices less $4/mmBtu this month, such a dramatic cut in prices would be difficult to achieve without causing major disruptions to industry. Environmentalists and Democratic-led states are also preparing to file lawsuits challenging Trump's deregulatory actions, a strategy they used during his first term with mixed success. Trump was sworn in in a relatively small ceremony inside the US Capitol, after calling off a more traditional, outdoor inauguration because of temperatures that were hovering around 23° F. Among those in attendance was Telsa chief executive Elon Musk, who spent more than $250mn to help elect Trump and is chairing a cost-cutting advisory panel, and other tech industry billionaires. Florida governor Ron Desantis (R). 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India's coal output hits all-time high in 2024


13/01/25
News
13/01/25

India's coal output hits all-time high in 2024

Singapore, 13 January (Argus) — India's coal production hit an all-time high last year, led by an uptick in utility demand and a broader government push to boost domestic output. Combined coal output from domestic sources such as state-controlled Coal India (CIL), Singareni Collieries (SCCL) and captive blocks reached 1.04bn t in calendar year 2024, up by 7pc or 70.4mn t from a year earlier, according to Argus calculations based on coal ministry data. This supported overall supplies, including supplies to utilities and the non-power sector, which reached 1.01bn t, from 950.2mn t in 2023. The steady increase in domestic coal output and supplies was also led by demand from utilities, as the country's coal-fired generation rose last year, and generators continued to replenish stocks to meet the rising power demand. The strong output also followed India's broader goal to raise local coal production, with an aim to trim imports and meet its broader energy security objective. Delhi has been pushing CIL to ramp up its output, while also seeking higher production from blocks allocated to utilities and the non-power sector. The growth in production and supplies likely weighed on thermal coal imports in 2024, with seaborne receipts estimated to have dropped last year, a first annual decline since 2021. The dip in India's demand for seaborne cargoes in a well-supplied market was reflected in recent prices, with the GAR 4,200 kcal/kg market for geared Supramaxes falling to a 44-month low of $49.43/t fob Kalimantan on 27 December, the last assessment of 2024. The market eased further to $49.25/t fob Kalimantan on 10 January. Output mix Production at state-controlled CIL stood at 785.2mn t in calendar year 2024, up from 756.1mn t a year earlier, while its supplies totalled 757.4mn t in the 12-month period, up from 738.6mn t in 2023, according to Argus calculations based on the company's monthly output data. State-owned SCCL produced 67.12mn t in 2024, down by 4pc or 2.5mn t in 2023, the coal ministry data showed. But this was more than offset by steady growth in coal production at captive coal blocks allocated to industrial coal consumers, state-government mining companies and some utilities. Coal output from the captive blocks rose to about 187mn t last year, up from 143.3mn t in 2023, the data showed. The higher captive coal production followed an increase in production from coal blocks allocated to state-controlled utility NTPC , which aims to become one of India's biggest coal producers in coming years. India's policy to auction coal mines for commercial mining by private companies is also beginning to support the overall captive coal output. Supply mix Combined domestic coal supplies to utilities from CIL, SCCL and captive blocks reached 831.44mn t, up by 6pc from a year earlier, the coal ministry data showed. India's coal-fired generation — which meets most of its power requirements — reached 1,293.19TWh last year, up by 5pc from a year earlier, the Central Electricity Authority (CEA) data show. Overall domestic coal supplies to non-power consumers such as steel and cement totalled about 179mn t last year, up by 13pc from 2023, according to the coal ministry data. Supplies to captive power units fall under non-power sector as per the data. By Saurabh Chaturvedi India's coal suppy mix (mn t) India's coal output mix (mn t) Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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US issues 45Z tax guidance for low-carbon fuels


10/01/25
News
10/01/25

US issues 45Z tax guidance for low-carbon fuels

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