US 2021 auto output may top 2019: AutoForecast

Market: Coking coal, Metals
07/01/21

Auto production in the US is expected to grow in 2021 beyond 2019 levels as new models add to existing production, according to AutoForecast Solutions.

The firm estimated 2021 vehicle production in the US at 10.73mn vehicles, up from 10.6mn vehicles produced in 2019. The company estimated that 8.63mn vehicles were produced in 2020, when output was heavily impacted by Covid-19-related shutdowns in the automotive industry during the first half of the year.

Production of trucks is expected to drive the 1.3pc increase in 2021 from 2019 levels.

Fiorani expects light trucks, which typically use more steel and aluminum than other vehicle types, to grow their share of production from 72.1pc in 2019 to 76.6pc in 2021. Increased production of Ford's F-series pickup trucks and Chevrolet's full-size pickup trucks are expected to be part of the growth of the increased share of light trucks.

The average US vehicle in 2018 contained 2,047 lbs pounds of steel and 455 lbs of aluminum, according to the American Iron and Steel Institute.

By Rye Druzin

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02/01/25

Pure green steel costs almost double NW EU HRC price

London, 2 January (Argus) — Zero emission hydrogen-fed electric arc furnace-produced crude steel would currently cost almost double the price of northwest EU hot-rolled coil (HRC), according to data launched by Argus today. The opex cost of green hydrogen-fed direct reduced iron/electric arc furnace (EAF) route steel was €1,074/t at the end of December, compared to a northwest EU HRC price of €558.25/t ex-works. That is also €544/t more than the cost of blast furnace/basic oxygen furnace (BOF)- produced crude steel, showing genuinely green steel would require a much higher finished product price than current blast furnace-based output, assuming a similar cost structure to today. Most current green offerings from EU mills are still produced via the blast furnace, with emissions reductions achieved through mass balancing, offsetting, or by reductions achieved elsewhere in the supply chain. Buy-side desire to pay premiums for this material has been limited, particularly given the downturn in the European market in the second half of 2024. This has contributed to the market for premiums remaining immature, illiquid and opaque, and complicated by the lack of a commonly agreed definition for green steel. Automakers have shown the most interest in greener steel, given their need to reduce emissions from the wider supply chain, as well as vehicle tailpipe emissions. Some automotive sub-suppliers suggest certain mills have been willing to reduce their green premiums to move tonnes — one reported paying a €70/t premium for EAF-based cold-rolled coil for a 2025 contract, but this was not confirmed. Europe's largest steelmaker, ArcelorMittal, said over the second half of last year it would pause its direct reduced iron (DRI) investment decisions ahead of the European Commission's Steel and Metals Action Plan, and as it called for an effective carbon border adjustment mechanism and more robust trade defence measures. Market participants largely agree that natural-gas fed EAF-based production is the greenest form of output currently available to EU mills, substituted with imports of greener metallics and semi-finished steels from regions with plentiful and competitively priced energy. Argus ' new costs show BOF steel is currently just over €31/t more expensive than scrap-based EAF production fed with renewable energy. Europe's comparatively high cost of energy is one key issue for transitioning to DRI/EAF fed production. Last month, consultancy Mckinsey said mills could rely on "green iron" hubs going forward, with iron-making decoupled from production of crude steel, enabling DRI production to be located in regions with low-cost gas and ore, and raw steel production in regions with access to renewable energy. The range of production costs, launched today, include five crude steel making pathways and are calculated using consumption and emissions data provided by Steelstat , in combination with Argus price data, including hydrogen costs. By Colin Richardson Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Viewpoint: US utilities worry over railcar supply

02/01/25

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02/01/25

Viewpoint: US utilities worry over railcar supply

Washington, 2 January (Argus) — US utilities are concerned that they may not have enough railcars to haul coal in the future as multiple power plants are seeking to remain in operation longer than expected. Power demand is forecast to rise in the coming years because of planned data centers in multiple parts of the country. Many data centers are expected to open before new generation, including natural gas, wind and solar-power units, go into service. A number of utilities want to avert the temporary power shortage by extending the life of coal-fired power plants beyond planned retirement dates. In response, demand is "poised to shift to a slight growth in the need for coal cars", according to railcar expert Richard Kloster, president of Integrity Rail Partners. Longer power plant lives as well as expectations of increased metallurgical coal exports are likely to provide demand for equipment. But the supply of railcars for coal has been slowly shrinking. No new railcars for the coal industry — primarily gondolas or open-top hoppers — have been built in nearly a decade. Utilities and leasing companies have had little interest in ordering new railcars for a shrinking sector. Many existing cars have also been scrapped, particularly during periods of low coal demand and high scrap prices during the last few years. There also are thousands of coal railcars in storage, but those do not really count towards demand, Kloster said. The cost of pulling those cars out of storage and making them service-ready is not necessarily cost effective, he said. About 21pc of North American coal cars were in storage at the beginning of August, up from 15pc in November 2022, according to Association of American Railroads data. In comparison, about 35pc of the coal car fleet was in storage at the start of July 2020, near the height of the Covid-19 pandemic. Possibilities of new construction There is a chance that "in the next 10 years, there will be coal cars built again", because many coal cars in the fleet are nearing 50 years of age, Kloster said. The retirement of many cars means that equipment must be pulled from storage or new units built, driving potential construction. Under Association of American Railroads (AAR) rules, railcars built after June 1974 can only be interchanged with other railroads for 50 years. After that, those cars are generally limited to operating on only one carrier. Some of those older cars may be retired early if they need repairs. Maintenance expenses could cause car owners to take units out of service. Utilities strategize Some utilities are already implementing plans to secure railcars, but others think taking additional steps will be unnecessary, according to railcar expert Darell Luther, chief executive of rail transportation firm Tealinc. The differing views are tied in part to whether utilities are regulated by states or merchant-owned, Luther said. Public utilities need to prove to regulators they can meet generating needs, including having enough coal and railcars. Privately owned operators have more flexibility in terms of contracting for coal and railcars. Several utility rail managers told Argus they do not see the need to take extra steps to secure railcars, confident that they already have plenty or can lease whatever they need in the future. But other utilities said they have taken steps to ensure they have coal cars in the future. Some utilities have purchased single or multiple cars as other generators sell them off. Others are increasingly leasing cars, with one utility saying that having more cars than needed is a cheap way of ensuring future supply. By Abby Caplan Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Viewpoint: Gallium nitride to expand into auto industry

02/01/25

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02/01/25

Viewpoint: Gallium nitride to expand into auto industry

London, 2 January (Argus) — Gallium nitride (GaN) is already used in power devices for consumer electronics, but manufacturers are now developing the technology for use in the automotive sector, with the compound set to make its way into vehicles in the coming year. GaN semiconductors are currently used in consumer and industrial applications, including alternating current adapters and server power supply units. But use of GaN semiconductors in automotive applications is at an early stage — unlike silicon carbide (SiC) chips, which are increasingly being incorporated into electric vehicle (EV) power electronics. GaN has a similar crystalline structure to silicon but can deliver greater efficiency, faster switching speeds and higher thermal conductivity. Lower resistance, smaller form factors and the ability to operate at higher voltages mean GaN semiconductors consume less power than silicon semiconductors. Integrating GaN into silicon substrates rather than sapphire is opening up new uses for GaN in vehicle power devices and light detection and ranging (LiDAR). GaN is suitable for low and high-voltage applications for EVs, including on-board chargers (OBCs), power inverters and traction motors. US-based semiconductor firms Navitas Semiconductor and Texas Instruments (TI), and Chinese-owned Nexperia have been developing GaN chips for automotive for several years and are now moving quickly into higher voltages. Several manufacturers have now started producing devices and expect to gain traction over the next year. Navitas has been producing GaN devices since 2018 and expects to begin making the product for the automotive industry in 2025. Japan's ROHM Semiconductor in December partnered with the world's largest semiconductor company, Taiwan-based TSMC, to develop and produce GaN power devices for EVs. The companies will integrate ROHM's device development technology with TSMC's GaN-on-Si process technology and provide control integrated circuits to maximise performance. Israeli firm VisIC Technologies is developing GaN products for automotive and industrial uses. It announced plans in December to partner with Austrian automotive technology developer AVL to advance inverter technology for EVs. The firms aim to produce devices that offer higher performance and lower costs at both the device and system level, compared with SiC devices. VisIC's GaN-on-silicon power devices consume less energy during production and can be manufactured in 200mm and 300mm silicon foundries to scale up output. VisIC plans to work with AVL to expand the platform to include 800V power modules — the next generation of EV charging technology. China's Innoscience Technology is developing GaN-on-Si power products and recently launched two 100V automotive-grade devices optimised for LiDAR for advanced driver assistance and autonomous driving applications, as well as DC-DC converters and automotive audio applications. The company has started mass production and is fulfilling batch orders to meet demand. Several manufacturers and foundries are now building out capacity to accommodate commercial-scale output of GaN devices. US-based GlobalFoundries said in early December it has received $9.5mn in federal funding to continue adding new tools, equipment and prototyping capabilities at its Vermont facility, as it moves closer to full-scale manufacturing of its 200mm GaN-on-Si chips. And TI started producing GaN-based power semiconductors at its factory in Aizu, Japan, in October. As the site ramps up, TI's internal capacity will quadruple between its US and Japanese factories. The company has also piloted manufacturing 300mm wafers to increase volumes. Limitations in manufacturing have so far hampered the widespread adoption of GaN in EVs. Cost, supply-chain issues and concerns around thermal management and voltage spikes remain hurdles that manufacturers must overcome. The technology has yet to be proven for automotive applications, which have stringent standards for quality and safety. For this reason, manufacturers are starting with GaN in OBCs and converters to establish confidence. Companies such as Germany's Infineon and Swiss chipmaker STMicroelectronics anticipate there will be room for both SiC and GaN in the automotive sector, depending on the power, efficiency and cost requirements of the application. The availability of gallium compared with silicon may also become a factor as demand increases, given export restrictions out of primary supplier China. By Nicole Willing Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Viewpoint: Strong fundamentals to support Nb columbite

02/01/25

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02/01/25

Viewpoint: Strong fundamentals to support Nb columbite

London, 2 January (Argus) — Increased demand from the aerospace and defence industries, alongside reduced supply from Brazil, has underpinned a steady increase in niobium columbite prices over the past two years, although further rises could face resistance from smelters switching to ferro-niobium when columbite becomes too costly. Defence and aerospace demand supported prices across the niobium complex throughout last year and are set to continue driving demand this year, owing to continued geopolitical tensions across all regions. Total military spending globally rose to $2.4 trillion in 2023, up by about 6.8pc in real terms from 2022, data from the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute show. And figures for last year are expected to increase further as Russia's continued war in Ukraine spurred greater NATO spending, conflict escalated in the Middle East and the Red Sea, and China ramped up military drills around Taiwan. Niobium metal is used in a range of high-temperature alloys in aerospace and defence applications, thanks to its high strength at extreme temperatures. In September last year, the US Department of Defense awarded a $26.4mn grant to major tantalum and niobium producer Global Advanced Metals through the Defense Production Act programme to support the production of high-purity niobium oxides at the company's Pennsylvania plant. One key alloy to which niobium metal is crucial is C-103, used in hypersonic missiles, jet engine afterburners and satellite components. C-103 is made up of 89pc niobium, 10pc hafnium and 1pc titanium. Firm demand for niobium metal has been keenly felt by the columbite market — the raw material — in which prices averaged $18.20/lb cif main port from January-mid-December last year, compared with an overall average of $14.50/lb in the past five years. Columbite prices began to trend higher from late 2022 — before the sustained increase in defence and aerospace demand — bolstered instead by tightened supply. The election of Brazilian president Lula de Silva in October 2022 brought with it a government crackdown on artisanal mining on indigenous lands in the Amazon. While this crackdown has focused chiefly on illegal gold and zinc mining on indigenous lands, niobium columbite market participants have also noted tightened supply and higher prices from the region since the Lula government took office. Furthermore, conflict in the eastern part of the Democratic Republic of the Congo has decreased the supply of tantalite from key mining areas this year. Tantalite and columbite materially are similar, making tantalite a useful source of niobium concentrates to many Chinese smelters. But this lower supply has raised the prices of tantalite with higher niobium content, even while tantalum demand has been slow this year. Looking ahead, market participants expect columbite prices to remain firm throughout this year, supported by a continuation of the fundamentals of the past two years. But further price increases could face resistance from consumers, as smelters could switch to ferro-niobium to avoid higher columbite costs. In the past, smelters in China have made the switch to ferro-niobium when columbite prices climb above $18/lb, often causing increases beyond this level to be short-lived. By Sian Morris Columbite prices, 2022-24 $/lb Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Viewpoint: Policy uncertainty dogs battery anode plans

30/12/24

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30/12/24

Viewpoint: Policy uncertainty dogs battery anode plans

Washington, 30 December (Argus) — Former president Donald Trump's re-election is sparking uncertainty in the US' synthetic graphite battery sector, with companies worried about a possible halt to government finance and a weaker outlook for domestic demand. "With Trump being elected president, everything's up in the air," one industry source said. Battery materials companies expecting to receive government funding to build plants in the US could see their prospects dim with Trump coming into office , since these companies need the federal grants to compete with China, a second source said. Trump on the campaign trail said he would rescind all unspent funds in President Joe Biden's Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) and scrap Environmental Protection Agency tailpipe standards, which he called an electric vehicle (EV) "mandate". The Biden administration is racing to try and secure projects set to be funded by the IRA. On 16 December, US battery materials producer Novonix received a conditional loan for up to $754mn for a new synthetic graphite plant from the US Department of Energy (DOE). If finalised, the loan would be used to build a new 31,500 t/yr synthetic graphite plant in Tennessee by the end of 2028. DOE previously awarded Novonix a $100mn grant and a $103mn tax credit to expand capacity at its Tennessee plant to 40,000 t/yr by 2025 and 150,000 t/yr by 2030. DOE on 16 December also closed on its up to $9.6bn loan to South Korean battery manufacturer SK On for the construction of three battery plants in the US, the largest loan ever awarded under its Advanced Technology Vehicles Manufacturing Program. DOE also in September selected SKI US , part of India-based Birla Carbon, to receive $150mn build a 25,000 t/yr synthetic graphite production plant in South Carolina. Some in Trump's orbit have warned they will review contracts they view as hastily pushed out before the former president takes office . But some Republicans are likely to oppose full repeal of the IRA, since the bill funds projects in their districts. And Republicans will hold a razor-thin majority in the House of Representatives. Even if Republicans do not repeal the IRA or other EV subsidies like tax credits, the uncertainty surrounding the new administration's support could be a stumbling block. "Who's going to put half a billion dollars into a battery plant right now when you don't have certainty on the push for EVs?" the first source said. Battery projects require huge amounts of investment. Swedish battery maker Northvolt obtained record venture capital investment for a European start-up at $15bn. But on 21 November, the company filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection in the US , in part because of difficulties "bridging financing between different stakeholders", outgoing chief executive Peter Carlsson said. The company had already closed down its R&D facility in the US and put plans for factories in Canada, Germany and Sweden on hold. Its financial woes intensified after the Swedish government declined to invest. Other European governments have already reduced financial support for EVs, more for spending reasons than policy, which has softened demand in the region. France recently changed eligibility requirements for subsidies , and Germany ended its subsidy late last year. Some companies, like Norwegian battery materials company Vianode, have been planning multi-billion dollar investment programmes to expand their reach in the automotive industry throughout North America and Europe. It is not clear if Trump's election will have an effect on these plans. Vianode opened its first anode graphite production plant, Via One, in Herøya, Norway, in October. The plant will have a capacity of 2,000 t/yr, enough to supply 30,000 EVs annually, according to Vianode. Chinese firms have scaled up production of key battery materials at all stages of the supply chain, creating more competition for European and US producers. Chinese producers dominate the global EV market with about 70pc of market share, even as the EU and US have put policies in place to try to support their domestic industry. China's lithium-ion battery exports to the US jumped in November as suppliers looked to get ahead of potential new tariffs. The Trump administration is likely to increase tariffs on Chinese lithium-ion batteries to as much as 60pc in the coming few months after Biden earlier this year lifted them to 25pc from 7.5pc. This could help support US-based battery plants. But tariffs on Chinese goods could also present additional challenges, as the raw materials for synthetic graphite often have some Chinese components. Needle coke, traditionally the main raw material for synthetic graphite used in battery anodes, is not widely produced outside of China. And while companies in China have been researching options for using a wider range of petroleum coke qualities , specifications are still relatively narrow, with battery companies in China absorbing most of the world's suitable coke . One graphite anode plant in Europe has been struggling to procure petroleum coke, according to a market participant. Sourcing coke for synthetic graphite in Europe and other ex-China locations is likely challenging, as most of these refineries and calciners have tied up their supply in long-term commitments, one producer said. Refineries are also reducing coke production, as the required feedstocks have become more costly. By Lauren Masterson and Hadley Medlock Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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