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Suez Canal emerges as Panama alternative for US LNG

  • Market: Natural gas
  • 13/01/21

Ongoing congestion at the Panama Canal has forced charterers looking to deliver US LNG cargoes to northeast Asia to seek alternative routes, with the Suez Canal emerging as the clear preference in recent weeks.

Transit of the Suez Canal had already increased for carriers with US cargoes that were loaded in December and en route to east Asia. Some 15 carriers with US December-loaded cargoes are set to cross the canal on their way to northeast and southeast Asian markets, up from two for December 2019-loaded cargoes, while Panama transits also rose to 22 from 13, according to Vortexa data. But deliveries to east Asian markets through the Cape of Good Hope rose only slightly to three from two. An increase in US export capacity partly explains the rises, with total December loadings climbing to around 88 cargoes from 54 a year earlier. And ample northeast Asian demand for Atlantic LNG has also spurred inter-basin cargo flows, driving demand for canal transits.

But 10 carriers laden with US cargoes loaded on 1-12 January are already set to transit through the Suez Canal, with a further seven heading towards the Mediterranean without a declared destination, of which at least some are likely to continue through Suez. Only eight January-loaded LNG cargoes are currently set to transit the Panama Canal, and a single cargo appears to be heading towards the Cape of Good Hope.

LNG carriers with US cargoes have faced significant delays at the Panama Canal throughout much of the past three months, as strong northeast Asian demand pulled US cargoes west through the canal into the Pacific at the same time as quick demand from other market segments emerged, while fog and Covid-19 protocols weighed on crossings, market participants noted. And with US liquefaction capacity ramping up significantly in the past year, the effect of the open LNG inter-basin arbitrage on demand for Panama crossings was more pronounced than in previous years.

LNG carrier congestion at Panama appears set to remain, although mainly for northbound crossings by empty carriers from the Pacific to the US Gulf seeking to return to load at US export facilities. The lower congestion for laden southbound crossings is likely a result of alternative routes being planned, as charterers seek to avoid the significant multi-day delays seen in late October-December.

ANEA near-curve in steep backwardation $/mn Btu

US LNG exports rise mn t LNG

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21/11/24

Cop: Talks in Baku torn between mitigation and finance

Cop: Talks in Baku torn between mitigation and finance

Edinburgh, 21 November (Argus) — Developing and developed nations remain at loggerheads on what progress on climate finance and mitigation — actions to cut greenhouse gas emissions — should look like at the UN Cop 29 climate summit. But Cop 30 host Brazil has reminded parties that they need to stick to the brief, which is finance for developing countries. Concluding a plenary where parties, developed and developing, listed grievances, environment minister Marina Silva recognised "the excellent progress achieved" on mitigation at Cop 28. She listed paragraphs of the Cop 28 deal, including the energy package and its historic call to transition away from fossil fuels in energy systems. "We are on the right track," she said, talking about mitigation, but "our greatest obligation at this moment is to make progress with regard to financing". "This is the core of financing that will pave our collective path in ambition and implementation at Cop 30," Silva said, adding that $1.3 trillion for developing countries should be "the guiding star of this Cop". Parties are negotiating a new collective quantified goal (NCQG) — a new climate finance target — building on the $100bn/yr that developed countries agreed to deliver to developing countries over 2020-25. But developed countries insist that a precise number for a goal can only be produced if there is progress on mitigation and financing structure for the NCQG. "Otherwise you have a shopping basket but you don't know what's in there," EU energy commissioner Wopke Hoekstra said. Some developing nations said they need the "headline number first". Some developing countries, including Latin American and African nations as well as island states, have also complained about the lack of mitigation ambition. Cop is facing one of the "weakest mitigation texts we have ever seen," Panama said. But they also indicated that financial support was missing to implement action. Developed countries at Cop 29 seek the implementation of the energy pledges made last year. "What we had on our agenda was not just to restate the [Cop 28] consensus but actually to enhance and to operationalise that," but the text goes in the opposite direction, Hoekstra said, talking about the latest draft on finance. Whether hints that Brazil has mitigation in focus for next year's summit will be enough to assuage concerns from developed countries at Cop 29 on fossil fuel ambitions remains to be seen. The communique of the G20, which the country hosted, does not explicitly mention the goal to transition away from fossil fuels either. The developed countries' mitigation stance grew firmer after talks on a work programme dedicated to mitigation, the obvious channel for fossil fuel language, was rescued from the brink of collapse last week. Discussions have stalled, but another text — the UAE dialogue which is meant to track progress on the outcomes of Cop 28 — still has options referring to fossil fuels. But in these negotiations too, divisions remain. "The UAE dialogue contains some positive optional language on deep, rapid and sustained emissions reductions and the [Cop 28] energy package, E3G said. But Saudi Arabia has made clear that this was unacceptable, while India, which worked to water down a coal deal at Cop 26, is pushing back on the 1.5°C temperature limit of the Paris Agreement. Negotiators are starting to run out of time. Draft after draft, the divide fails to be breached with no agreement on an amount for the finance deal. "We cannot talk about a lower or higher number because there is no number," noted Colombia's environment minister Susana Muhamad. The next iteration should have numbers based on the Cop 29 presidency's "view of possible landing zones". The fact that the draft text on finance has no bridging proposal is a concern, non-profit WRI director of international climate action David Waskow said. Finance was always meant to be the centrepiece of Cop 29. Parties have not formally discussed the goal in more than 15 years, and have been trying to prepare for a new deal through technical meetings for the past two years. But the discussion needs to end in Baku. By Caroline Varin Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Cop: EU, four countries commit to 1.5°C climate plans


21/11/24
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21/11/24

Cop: EU, four countries commit to 1.5°C climate plans

Baku, 21 November (Argus) — The EU, Canada, Mexico, Norway and Switzerland have committed to submit new national climate plans setting out "steep emission cuts", that are consistent with the global 1.5°C temperature increase limit sought by the Paris Agreement. The EU and four countries made the pledge at the UN Cop 29 climate summit in Baku, Azerbaijan today, and called on other nations to follow suit — particularly major economies. Countries are due to submit new climate plans — known as nationally determined contributions (NDCs) — covering 2035 goals to the UN climate body the UNFCCC by early next year. The EU, Canada, Mexico, Norway and Switzerland have not yet submitted their plans, but they will be aligned with a 1.5°C pathway, EU climate commissioner Wopke Hoekstra said today. The Paris climate agreement seeks to limit the global rise in temperature to "well below" 2°C and preferably to 1.5°C. Canada's NDC is being considered by the country's cabinet and will be submitted by the 10 February deadline, Canadian ambassador for climate change Catherine Stewart said today. Switzerland's new NDC will also be submitted by the deadline, the country's representative confirmed. Pamana's special representative for climate change Juan Carlos Monterrey Gomez also joined the press conference today. Panama, which is designated as carbon negative, submitted an updated NDC in June. It is planning to submit a nature pledge, Monterrey Gomez said. "It is time to streamline processes to get to real action", he added. The UK also backed the pledge. The UK announced an ambitious emissions reduction target last week. The UAE — which hosted Cop 28 last year — released a new NDC just ahead of Cop 29, while Brazil, host of next year's Cop 30, released its new NDC on 13 November during the summit. Thailand yesterday at Cop 29 communicated a new emissions reduction target . Indonesia last week said that it intends to submit its updated NDC ahead of the February deadline, with a plan placing a ceiling on emissions and covering all greenhouse gases as well as including the oil and gas sector. Colombia also indicated that its new climate plan will seek to address fossil fuels, but it will submit its NDC by June next year . By Georgia Gratton Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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LNG diversions to Europe reach double digits


19/11/24
News
19/11/24

LNG diversions to Europe reach double digits

London, 19 November (Argus) — At least 11 LNG carriers have likely diverted to Europe from Asia and Egypt over the past week, as European delivered prices now offer higher returns than Asian delivered prices, and operational issues delay deliveries in Egypt. Of the 11 cargoes, seven have diverted away from sailing for Asia round the Cape of Good Hope towards Europe, and four have diverted from Egypt, judging by shiptracking data from Vortexa (see table) . This does not include the 173,400m Myrina , which was idling in the mid-Atlantic today. One carrier — 174,000m³ Aristos I — had already passed the Cape of Good Hope, before turning back towards the Atlantic basin. Assuming all carriers are holding full cargoes, this totals around 860,000t, or 13.2TWh of LNG. Northwest European delivered prices rose above corresponding northeast Asian prices last week , prompting diversions from Asia to Europe. The inter-basin arbitrage was already closed, although firms with surplus shipping capacity that they viewed as a sunk cost because of long open vessel lists were still willing to send Atlantic basin cargoes to Asia as the opportunity cost of the longer journey time was limited to the cargo loss through higher boil-off during the voyage. But Europe's discount to Asia has narrowed, and even inverted late last week, with the spread between the two markets less than the boil-off cost difference between US deliveries to Europe and to Asia, incentivising diversions to Europe. The extra boil-off losses amount to around 39¢/mn Btu when shipping a cargo from Sabine Pass to Incheon via the Cape of Good Hope instead of Rotterdam, assuming a northeast Asian delivered price of $14.05/mn Btu, a sailing speed of 17 knots and a 160,000m³ cargo with a 0.1pc daily boil-off rate. The Argus Northeast Asia (ANEA) January delivered price closed at a 49¢/mn Btu premium to the northwest European December des price on 7 November, enough to incentivise deliveries to northeast Asia instead of Europe for firms with sunk shipping capacity as the spread was wider than boil-off losses. But the ANEA January price on 14 November fell to a discount to prompt northwest European des prices, incentivising diversions to Europe. And four carriers have diverted away from Egypt, where delays to a tight delivery schedule have been created by operational issues at the country's 6mn t/yr Ain Sukhna terminal, according to market participants. One of the terminal's two regasification trains has been experiencing operational difficulties, halving the terminal's regasification capacity, they said. The country last imported a cargo on 16 November — nine days after the previous delivery. The terminal's Hoegh Galleon floating storage and regasification unit has a peak regasification rate of 750mn ft³/d (7.7bn m³/yr), equivalent to about 16,500 t/d, meaning that it could regasify a 72,000t standard-sized cargo in 4-5 days when operating at full capacity. By Martin Senior Diversions to Europe m³ Carrier Capacity Diversion date Approx diversion location Diversions from Asia BW Lesmes 174,000 13-Nov West Africa Gaslog Windsor 180,000 14-Nov West Africa Vivirt City LNG 174,000 15-Nov West Africa LNGShips Empress 174,000 18-Nov Carribean Diamond Gas Crystal 174,000 14-Nov Carribean Flex Vigilant 174,000 14-Nov Carribean Aristos I 174,000 18-Nov Madagascar Diversions from Egypt British Listener 173,000 13-Nov Mediterranean LNG Harmony 174,000 14-Nov Mid-Atlantic Axios II 174,000 14-Nov Mid-Atlantic Pacific Success 174,000 16-Nov South of Suez — Vortexa, Argus Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Cop: Countries join fossil fuel subsidy phase-out group


19/11/24
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19/11/24

Cop: Countries join fossil fuel subsidy phase-out group

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G20 mayors call for $800bn/yr to address climate change


19/11/24
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19/11/24

G20 mayors call for $800bn/yr to address climate change

Rio de Janeiro, 19 November (Argus) — Mayors from G20 countries are asking for at least $800bn/yr in investments by 2030 to tackle the effects of climate change. "We need better and faster access to international financing to ensure infrastructure that supports the socioeconomic security of our communities," Rio de Janeiro's mayor Eduardo Paes said. The joint statement from nearly 60 mayors and urban leaders was drafted during the Urban20, a G20 forum that includes leaders from major cities worldwide, and was delivered to Brazilian president Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva. The statement will also be delivered to other G20 members during the ongoing G20 summit in Rio de Janeiro. Climate change is one of the main topics being debated at the G20 summit. Brazil, which holds the G20 presidency this year, has set the energy transition as one of its goals for the year. The group reaffirmed its support for the Paris Agreement climate goals , saying it "fully subscribes" to the Cop 28 deal struck last year, which included language on transitioning away from fossil fuels. Urban investments such as low-emission transport, clean energy, and climate-resilient infrastructure can "significantly reduce emissions" and boost economic growth, according to the statement. The funding could unlock around $23.9 trillion in returns by 2050, it said. The $800bn/yr would cover around 20pc of urban climate finance needs and "serve as a catalyst for additional private sector funding," according to the Global Covenant of Mayors for Climate and Energy, a non-government organization for climate leadership that comprises over 13,000 cities worldwide. By Lucas Parolin Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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