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Biden to halt most federal oil, gas leasing

  • Market: Crude oil, Emissions, Natural gas
  • 27/01/21

President Joe Biden today will order his administration to wind down new oil and gas leasing on federal land, as part of a sweeping series of executive orders focused on climate change.

The orders will direct the US Interior Department to pause oil and gas leasing "to the extent possible" and launch a review of all existing fossil fuel leasing and permitting practices on federal land. Biden will also instruct federal agencies to find ways to remove fossil fuel "subsidies," to procure carbon-free electricity and buy zero-emission vehicles, a policy Biden previewed last week.

"These executive orders follow through on President Biden's promise to take aggressive action to tackle climate change," the White House said.

Oil and gas industry groups have raised alarm at the prospect of a federal leasing ban, which they say would destroy jobs and curb output on lands and waters that in 2019 produced 2.7mn b/d of crude.

It remains unclear if the "pause" on leasing would eventually be lifted, and how much leasing might still go forward because of legal requirements to regularly hold lease sales. The White House has yet to release the full text of the order, which would not apply to tribal lands.

The federal leasing ban could have the most pronounced long-term effect on offshore development, although it would not affect existing operations or drilling permits that are acquired years in advance. The government controls the entire US Gulf of Mexico beyond state waters close to the shoreline, meaning the offshore sector's alternative option for new leasing would be to relocate overseas.

"If a ban goes on too long, and those investments go overseas, then we start seeing immediate drying up of service company partners," Louisiana Association of Business and Industry president Stephen Waguespack said.

Industry groups say a leasing ban will disrupt economic activity and create billion-dollar budget gaps in states like New Mexico, Colorado and Wyoming, where federal production has boomed over the last decade. Even a temporary leasing ban might have long-term effects, as operators shift investment budgets or lose the advance time necessary to acquire drilling permits.

"It is not like renting a car. There is a lot of work that goes in ahead of time," Independent Petroleum Association of America government relations senior vice president Dan Naatz said.

The moves align with Biden's campaign promise to ban federal fossil fuel leasing and, instead, use the government's massive land holdings to support renewable energy. Biden, through the order today, will also ask his administration to identify steps to double offshore wind output by 2030 and find new ways to spur innovation of clean energy technology and infrastructure.

But the orders curtailing oil and gas development risk undercutting Biden's attempts to revive the economy, particularly blue-collar jobs common in pipeline construction and oil production. Biden today will also create a working group to assist communities that depend on fossil fuel production, including a push to remediate existing and abandoned wells and mining sites.

Environmentalists were jubilant at the orders, which came after years of trying to make action on climate change a core focus of the government. They say continuing federal leasing would effectively lock in decades of production, making it impossible for the US to reach ambitious goals on reducing greenhouse gas emissions.

Industry groups have promised a massive legal fight if the leasing moratorium goes forward. They intend to argue that while the executive branch has some discretion on leasing, trying to pause all leasing would conflict with laws like the Mineral Leasing Act, under which the US Congress sought to encourage energy development on federal lands through quarterly lease sales.


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02/12/24

Mexico central bank flags 2025 growth uncertainty

Mexico central bank flags 2025 growth uncertainty

Mexico City, 2 December (Argus) — Mexico's central bank (Banxico) maintained its base-case 2025 GDP growth estimate at 1.2pc, with a range of 0.4pc to 2pc, citing heightened global uncertainty fueled by geopolitical conflicts and potential shifts in international economic policies. Central bank governor Victoria Rodriguez last week addressed US president-elect Donald Trump's proposed 25pc tariffs on Mexican goods, urging caution until the trade situation clarifies. Mexican president Claudia Shienbaum initially responded with a firm stance, saying Mexico could apply counter-tariffs. Later, Sheinbaum and Trump had a "friendly" phone call to discuss issues surrounding the proposed 25pc tariff on Mexican and Canadian imports, Sheinbaum said. Banxico raised its 2024 GDP growth forecast to 1.8pc from 1.5pc in its previous quarterly report in August, driven by stronger-than-expected third-quarter performance. Still, Banxico noted that the additional growth is driven by increased spending on imported goods rather than domestic production, particularly in investment and private consumption. Inflation dynamics remain mixed. While headline inflation rose to an annualized 4.76pc in October, core inflation eased to 3.58pc, its lowest level since mid-2020. Rodriguez emphasized progress on inflation despite external uncertainties, signaling room for further monetary easing. Banxico cut its target interest rate by 25 basis points to 10.25pc on 14 November and is widely expected to lower it again to 10pc at its 19 December meeting. Projections from Mexican finance executives institution (IMEF) suggest the rate could drop to 8.25pc by the end of 2025. Banxico also revised its 2024 inflation forecast to 4.7pc from 4.4pc in the August report but expects inflation to return to its 2–4pc target range by early 2025, with a 3pc rate projected by the fourth quarter. Other adjustments include a downgraded forecast for formal job creation in 2024 and 2025, with the range estimate for full-year job creation in 2024 dropping to 250,000–350,000 from 410,000-550,000 in August. The 2025 estimate came down to 340,000–540,000 from 430,000–630,000.The 2025 trade deficit outlook was also tightened to $14.9bn–$22.1bn, compared to a previous range of $13.7bn–$23.7bn. By James Young Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Denmark pledges DKr150mn to Brazil's Amazon fund


29/11/24
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29/11/24

Denmark pledges DKr150mn to Brazil's Amazon fund

Sao Paulo, 29 November (Argus) — Denmark will donate 150mn Danish kroner ($21.3mn) to Brazil's Amazon fund, adding the Nordic country to a growing list of nations supporting the South American country's efforts to preserve the Amazon forest. The Amazon fund issues grants to projects that prevent, monitor and combat deforestation while promoting conservation and sustainable development in the Amazon. The fund was created in 2008 and is managed by Brazil's Bndes development bank. It has R4.5bn ($750mn) under management and has supported 114 projects to date. Norway is the fund's largest donor, having pledged R3.5bn, followed by German development bank KfW with R388mn and the US with R291mn. Other donors include the UK, Switzerland and Japan. Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Cop 29 Article 6 deal ushers in new carbon markets era


29/11/24
News
29/11/24

Cop 29 Article 6 deal ushers in new carbon markets era

New NDCs will show how many countries aim to use Article 6 mechanisms towards climate goals London, 29 November (Argus) — Countries concluded nine years of negotiations on UN-level carbon market mechanisms at the Cop 29 climate conference in Baku, Azerbaijan, this month, opening up new avenues for carbon trading that will present both opportunities and challenges for existing systems. Cop 29 ended last week with agreement on the crucial outstanding elements to allow the full operationalisation of Article 6 of the Paris Agreement, which includes two mechanisms designed to help countries co-operate on meeting their emissions cut targets, or nationally determined contributions (NDCs), through carbon trading. Article 6.2 provides for the bilateral trading of so-called internationally traded mitigation outcomes (Itmos) between countries, while Article 6.4 establishes the Paris Agreement Crediting Mechanism (PACM). The mechanisms distinguish themselves from existing carbon markets largely in the rules and methodologies underpinning the credits. Article 6.2 credits will be "correspondingly adjusted", meaning emissions savings cannot be double-counted by the buyer and seller. And Article 6.4 specifically requires the downward adjustment of emissions cut pathways over time, as well as providing environmental and human rights safeguards and a buffer pool to address any reversal of achieved mitigation. This offers potential guidance to other carbon markets, whether existing schemes in need of reform or newly established. The unregulated voluntary carbon market (VCM) has notably suffered a reputational crisis since last year, largely as a result of questions surrounding the integrity of its credits. Brazil's planned emissions trading system is "sure to benefit" from the benchmarks established by Article 6.4, Bruno Carvalho Arruda of the Brazilian foreign affairs ministry said this week. But Article 6 also potentially poses competition to existing systems, if the credits that it issues are perceived to be more robust. "The UN system will not be immune from the same criticisms as the VCM," Switzerland's lead negotiator on international carbon markets under Article 6, Simon Fellermeyer, told delegates at Cop 29. But its basis of legitimacy — an inclusive system, which has been developed over a long period of time — gives confidence to participants and could act as a "guiding star" that other markets could try to align with, he said. Healthy competition There is a role for independent carbon crediting registries, but they will be looking at the UN process for comparison, chair of the Article 6.4 supervisory body Olga Gassan-Zade said following the body's initial adoption of key rules for the mechanism last month. "It's healthy to have competition," she said. The submission of new NDCs under the Paris deal, due in February, should bring some more clarity as to how many countries intend to make use of Article 6 mechanisms towards their goals, as they set out how they intend to meet ever-stricter emissions cut targets, this time for 2035. Some parties, including the EU, have made it clear that they will not use Article 6 to meet their targets under the Paris agreement. But deputy director-general of the European Commission's climate directorate, Jan Dusik, still welcomed the agreement on Article 6.4 at Cop 29 as a "significant achievement", emphasising the "complementary role" it can play for individual member states that want to make additional emissions cuts beyond the bloc's NDC, as well as for EU companies. And the flow of money between regions through Article 6 mechanisms could become all the more vital in light of the $300bn/yr climate finance deal reached in Baku, which is widely regarded as inadequate by developing countries. Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Cop: Baku mitigation outcomes disappoint


29/11/24
News
29/11/24

Cop: Baku mitigation outcomes disappoint

London, 29 November (Argus) — Parties hoping for higher ambition on mitigation — reducing emissions of greenhouse gases — left the UN Cop 29 climate summit in Baku, Azerbaijan, last week disappointed, after their attempts to reach an ambitious outcome were thwarted. Eyes now turn to next year's summit in Belem, Brazil, where an uncertain geopolitical context and US unwillingness to engage could make mitigation commitments all the more difficult to achieve. The conference achieved the operationalisation of article 6 of the Paris agreement , which allows for international trading of carbon credits. A new climate financing goal to follow on from the $100bn/yr promise for 2020-25 was agreed, although the amount on offer and terms left recipient countries deeply disappointed. Developed countries had pushed for the conference's outcomes to recommit to and build on the historic pledge made at last year's Cop in Dubai to transition away from fossil fuels. But the declaration of host Azerbaijan's president Ilham Aliyev that fossil fuels are a "gift from god" may have set the tone for the following two weeks of negotiations. Hopes alighted on two texts to have Dubai outcomes reflected at Baku — the UAE dialogue on the global stocktake and the mitigation work programme (MWP). But parties fundamentally disagreed on what these texts should include. An "agenda fight" on the first day of the conference caused the opening plenary to be interrupted, with parties disagreeing on whether the global stocktake should be classed under matters related to finance. A fudge was agreed, leaving the text under finance, but with a footnote. This would "provide reassurance that the placement does not prejudge the outcome," Cop president Azerbaijan's Mukhtar Babayev said. The first draft text, which came out near the beginning of the second week, still contained diametrically opposed visions on what the dialogue could consist of. Reciprocal accusations of cherry-picking flew. Saudi Arabia insisted that "the scope of the dialogue is on finance, and [the draft text] is advancing mitigation-centric cherry-picking." The Arab Group would "never accept" a text centred around positions which attempt to draw mitigation into the UAE dialogue, Saudi Arabia said. New Zealand claimed that the UAE dialogue was advancing on all elements except mitigation, and said such cherry-picking was unacceptable. Parties could not reach agreement, rejecting the final draft presented in the early hours of 24 November, two days after the official end of the summit. Developed countries criticised what they called a lack of ambition, with Switzerland saying the text contained "attempts to backtrack on the commitments taken last year", and Australia saying "some bodies have sought to slow or stymie discussions." Vulnerable developing states opposed the text too, with Fiji calling the result an "affront" to the Paris agreement. The mitigation work programme (MWP) text — the result of a workstream set up at Cop 27 in Egypt to provide a forum for discussing means to reduce emissions — was gavelled through without objections, but significantly watered down from drafts. The final text excised references in the preamble to temperature targets and net-zero carbon emissions, did not refer to fossil fuels, and mentioned emissions reductions only in specific contexts. The MWP final text did not provide guidance or encouragement for high ambition on the upcoming round of nationally determined contributions (NDCs) — the documents in which states set out their climate goals for the coming decade. States have until February 2025 to publish the new versions of these documents, which will set out their plans for emissions reductions to 2035. Instead the text highlighted their "nationally determined" nature, a warning against attempts to impose top-down targets on emissions reductions on other states. Other initiatives on mitigation appeared to fall by the wayside. Azerbaijan in July announced its plans for a $1bn "climate finance action fund" to be provided by fossil fuel-producing states and firms. But the plan received no more mention at Baku. Another presidency pledge, to increase global power-sector energy storage and build or refurbish 25mn km of grid infrastructure made an appearance in a draft UAE dialogue text, but was cut for the final, non-adopted version. The outcome of Cop 29 leaves a " mountain of work " to be done at the next Cop in Belem in 2025, according to UNFCCC executive secretary Simon Stiell. Countries will have published their latest NDCs by then, but without the spur of a strong outcome from Baku pushing towards high ambition. Developed countries had already set their sights on an ambitious outcome on mitigation in Brazil, and the lack of reinforcement of the Dubai outcome this year will make that all the more difficult to achieve. The likely role of the US in next year's talks offers little consolation. The election of Donald Trump in the weeks before this Cop opened threw a spanner in the works. Trump withdrew the US from the Paris agreement during his last term, and has indicated his intention to do so again. But with the withdrawal process taking one year from notification, and Trump not due to be inaugurated until January, the US will once again be present next year, but probably as an unwilling partner. By Rhys Talbot Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Australia could issue over 9mn safeguard carbon units


29/11/24
News
29/11/24

Australia could issue over 9mn safeguard carbon units

Sydney, 29 November (Argus) — Australia's Clean Energy Regulator (CER) could issue over 9mn safeguard mechanism credits (SMCs) to facilities that reported emissions below their baselines for July 2023-June 2024. This was 4-6 times higher than previously estimated, the Climate Change Authority (CCA) said in its 2024 Annual Progress Report released late on 28 November. A total of 60 out of 215 facilities covered by the safeguard mechanism reported scope 1 greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions below their baselines and could be eligible to apply for a total estimated 9.2mn SMCs, the CCA said. Australia's Department of Climate Change, Energy, the Environment and Water (DCCEEW) late last year estimated SMC issuances would start at just 1.4mn units in 2023-24, while the Clean Energy Regulator (CER) indicated issuances would be "relatively modest initially" in September. The estimates are based on preliminary 2023-24 safeguard data provided by the CER, with the CCA noting the final number of SMCs issued could be affected by possible baseline variations, because of changes in methods used to calculate emissions. The use of flexibility mechanisms, including trade-exposed baseline adjusted (Teba) arrangements and multi-year monitoring periods, will also affect facility baselines and affect the final number of SMCs generated, it added. "An important ongoing watchpoint will be the extent to which safeguard facilities rely on Australian Carbon Credit Units (ACCUs) and SMCs to meet their declining baselines, as opposed to reducing their onsite emissions," the CCA said. Preliminary data showed 153 of the 215 covered facilities — or 71pc of the total — had emissions higher than their baselines in 2023-24, by an estimated aggregate amount of 10.7mn t of CO2e. This would be the maximum exceeded volume, the CCA said, although the exact number will be determined once any use of the flexibility mechanisms is finalised by the CER. This will affect the number of ACCUs or SMCs that facilities that went above their baselines will be required to surrender by the 31 March 2025 deadline under the reformed safeguard mechanism. A total of 219 facilities were under the mechanism in 2022-23, with reported emissions of 138.7mn t of CO2e and ACCU retirements rising to 1.22mn units from 739,000 the previous year. The preliminary data for 2023-24 indicated covered emissions of 135.8mn t of CO2e, down by 2.9mn t of CO2e from the previous year, the CCA said. By Juan Weik Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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