Modern German lignite plant margins halve from 2024

Market: Electricity
11/03/21

Rising EU emissions trading system (ETS) prices have almost halved the profitability of modern lignite-fired power plants in Germany beyond 2024, taking almost half of the country's lignite fleet into loss-making territory based on current forward prices.

Clean lignite spreads for a unit with an efficiency of 43pc — the highest for this technology in the country — for 2024 were at €5.96/MWh yesterday, based on assumed lignite costs of €2.85/MWh and Argus' over-the-counter (OTC) assessments of German power and EU ETS allowances. Germany has around 3.6GW of lignite-fired capacity with this efficiency — units built in the 2010s.

Generating margins for the most efficient lignite-fired plants have fallen by 48pc since 15 December, when Argus began assessing 2024 EU ETS allowances, as EU ETS price have risen sharply. EU ETS December 2024 was assessed at €33.25/t CO2 equivalent (CO2e) on 15 December and closed yesterday's session at €43.06/t CO2e. EU ETS allowances account for around 92.3pc of breakeven costs for a lignite-fired plant with this efficiency. Clean lignite spreads for the same efficiency and 2025 base load closed yesterday at €4.46/MWh, down by 60pc since the beginning of this year.

Almost half of the country's lignite fleet will be unprofitable to run from 2024, based on current forward generating margins. Clean lignite spreads for a unit with an efficiency of 36pc have averaged minus €2.06/MWh this month. Generating margins for units with this efficiency have been negative since 2 February.

German lignite-fired capacity currently stands at around 16.87GW, of which around 8.22GW has an efficiency of 36pc or lower — units built in the 1980s or before. Around 49pc of all lignite-fired units with a capacity of 100MW or higher are priced out for base load.

Around 2.52GW of capacity is earmarked to close from end of this year until end of 2022. This will leave German lignite-fired capacity at 15GW from 2023 and around 5.7GW from 2025-29. This means that around 35pc of the operational capacity in 2024 would be running at a loss. The remaining 8.2GW of lignite-fired capacity will close in 2033-38.

Positive in the short term

Looking closer in, generating margins for these 36pc-efficient lignite-fired units remain positive although they have also been under pressure, nearing negative territory in recent sessions. Clean lignite spreads narrowed to €0.54/MWh yesterday, down by almost 90pc since the beginning of the year.

Around 900MW of lignite-fired capacity is earmarked to close at the end of this year.

German lignite-fired generation this quarter has been higher year on year supported by lower than average wind and periods of colder than average weather. Stronger increases in power prices than in the EU ETS have supported margins for lignite-fired plants. Working day-ahead lignite spreads for a 36pc-efficient plant have averaged €4.09/MWh since January, compared with minus €3.21/MWh during the same period last year, based on Argus assessments.

But the outlook for these units for the spring period is not expected to be profitable for base load, as demand for heating declines and solar power generation increases. Current power prices suggest that only a unit with an efficiency of 42pc or higher is priced in for base load during the April-June period, although with narrow margins.

By Jacqueline Echevarria

Clean lignite spreads 42% €/MWh

Clean lignite spreads 36% €/MWh

Related news posts

Argus illuminates the markets by putting a lens on the areas that matter most to you. The market news and commentary we publish reveals vital insights that enable you to make stronger, well-informed decisions. Explore a selection of news stories related to this one.

News

20/12/24

Brazil Bndes invests more in Sao Paulo EV fleet

Sao Paulo, 20 December (Argus) — Brazil's Bndes development bank approved R94.8mn ($15.6mn) in financing for transport company MobiBrasil to buy 87 electric buses in Sao Paulo city. The environment ministry's climate fund — created to finance climate change mitigation projects and Bndes — will be responsible for R45mn. A federal fund to provide financial security to the unemployed, dubbed FGTS, will be responsible for the remaining R49.8mn. This is Bndes' first operation using FGTS resources. Earlier this month, Bndes said it will invest R2.5bn to buy 1,300 EV-buses in Sao Paulo city . On 9 December, the city's council postponed the bus fleet transition from diesel-powered to EVs to 2054 from the previous 2038 deadline. By Maria Frazatto Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Find out more

News

Australia’s Cleanaway, LMS to produce landfill gas

20/12/24

News

20/12/24

Australia’s Cleanaway, LMS to produce landfill gas

Sydney, 20 December (Argus) — Australian waste management operator Cleanaway and bioenergy firm LMS Energy will partner on a 22MW landfill gas-fired power station at Cleanaway's Lucas Heights facility near the city of Sydney. Cleanaway, Australia's largest publicly listed waste management firm, will receive exclusive rights to landfill gas produced at Lucas Heights for 20 years, the company said on 20 December. LMS will invest A$46mn ($29mn) in new bioelectricity assets, including a 22MW generator. Tightening gas markets owing to underinvestment in new supply has led to speculation that more waste-to-energy plants could be brought on line in coming years, especially in the southern regions. Landfill gas projects receive Australian Carbon Credit Units (ACCUs) by avoiding methane releases, with the total ACCU quantity calculated after a default baseline of 30pc is deducted for projects beginning after 2015. A total of 42.6mn ACCUs were issued to landfill gas projects since the start of the ACCU scheme in 2011, 27pc of the total 155.7mn and the second-largest volume after human-induced regeneration (HIR) methods at 46.68mn. Canberra is reviewing ACCU issuance for these projects, and wants most projects to directly measure methane levels in captured landfill gas to avoid overestimation. Landfill gas operations which generate electricity from the captured gases can also receive large-scale generation certificates (LGCs). LMS has 70 projects currently registered at the Clean Energy Regulator (CER) and has received 24.57mn ACCUs since the start of the scheme. This is the largest volume for any single project proponent, just ahead of Australian environmental market investor GreenCollar's subsidiary Terra Carbon with 23.57mn units. Cleanaway received almost 1mn ACCUs from two projects and has four other projects that have yet to earn ACCUs. By Tom Major and Juan Weik Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

News

Reliability drives New Zealand power mix: Minister

19/12/24

News

19/12/24

Reliability drives New Zealand power mix: Minister

Sydney, 19 December (Argus) — New Zealand's conservative coalition government wants to ensure reliable generation, whether that is from coal, oil, gas, or geothermal resources, the country's resources minister Shane Jones told Argus this week. Jones was also clear about the need to draw a distinction between "the expectations on [a] small, open trading nation like [New Zealand] not to use coal and the major hope[s] and needs of the average New Zealander for affordable power, reliable power." "If [reliable power] comes from coal, that's the mix and the menu for the future," he added. Jones argued that existing renewable power sources cannot exclusively provide for New Zealand's energy needs. He instead suggested that his government is interested in promoting alternative power sources such as oil, gas and geothermal, through investments and policy changes. New Zealand's coal-fired power generation surged between July-September, according to the New Zealand's Ministry of Business Innovation and Employment (MBIE). Coal rose to 8pc of total generation from 3pc a year earlier, following a drop in hydroelectric power production. The country burned 363,513t of coal over those months, more than tripling its use for power generation purposes compared to the same period last year. Oil, gas Jones has taken steps to boost the country's oil sector since taking office in late 2023, following the coalition's victory over the centre-left Labour party. The minister introduced the Crown Minerals Amendment Bill in June, a piece of legislation that he described as being "aimed at increasing investor confidence in petroleum exploration and development." Jones told Argus that under the previous government, "people who may have been willing to [make] investment[s] and bring patient capital concluded that New Zealand was no longer available as a destination for oil and gas and this has resulted in a diminution in [oil] investment." The Crown Minerals Amendment Bill will overturn a 2018 ban on offshore oil exploration, which was introduced while Jones was serving in an earlier Labour-led coalition government. New Zealand's oil sector increased its annual well spending from NZ$110mn ($63.2mn) in 2018 to NZ$403mn, in the years following the ban in 2018. The total number of active oil permits in the country has plunged from 56 to 37 over the same period, MBIE data show. New Zealand likely houses at least 223.5bn m³ of undiscovered, offshore gas reserves; 249mn bl of undiscovered, offshore oil reserves; and 177mn bl of undiscovered, offshore NGL reserves, mostly scattered around the North Island, according to US Geological Survey (USGS) estimates in 2022. The country's discovered, recoverable reserves are at between 38.3mn-52.7mn bl of oil; 29.4bn-39.8bn m³ of gas; and between 1.2mn–1.4mn t of LPG as of 1 January 2024, according to the MBIE. Besides restarting oil exploration, the Crown Minerals Amendment Bill also seeks to change permitting processes to drive capital into the sector. Permits are currently allocated through a competitive tender process, Jones told Argus this week. The government wants "the flexibility to use alternative processes to match investor interest in the most efficient and effective way by allowing the option of using non-tender methods." MBIE has indicated that the government may start using ‘priority in time' tenders, which allocates permits to the first eligible projects that apply for them, once the bill passes. But the Crown Minerals Amendment Bill does not specify how the government will manage non-competitive tenders. The government is also not using the Crown Minerals Amendment Bill to "specifically intervene in coal mining operations" in New Zealand, Jones said. But coal demand will fall "in the event that [the government is] able to expand the supply of indigenous gas," he noted. Geothermal The government's energy strategy also appears to involve doubling down on domestic geothermal generation, which is New Zealand's second most common source of power. Geothermal generators produced 2,363GWh of power between July-September, accounting for 20.5pc of total generation, in line with historical averages, according to MBIE data. New Zealand's government seems to be trying to push that share up. The government in early December decided to allocate up to NZ$60mn of public infrastructure funding to research for deep, geothermal energy production. The work will focus on drilling geothermal wells up to 6km deep, nearly twice the depth of standard wells. Jones told Argus that New Zealand officials are currently in Japan, discussing supercritical geothermal generation opportunities with engineers and scientists. By Avinash Govind Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

News

Western Australia's near-term gas supply rises: Aemo

19/12/24

News

19/12/24

Western Australia's near-term gas supply rises: Aemo

Sydney, 19 December (Argus) — The short term supply outlook for Western Australia's (WA) gas market has improved, but gaps in the next decade need to be addressed, according to an Aemo annual report. The near-term gas supply is stronger than last year's outlook, with supply now forecast to exceed consumption through to 2027 on increased flows from LNG projects and declining near-term consumption, according to the 2024 Western Australia Gas Statement of Opportunities (GSOO) paper from the Australian Energy Market Operator (Aemo). Ample gas supply is expected because of increased flows from Wheatstone and Pluto LNG projects and new supply including forecast volumes from 2026 onwards from Woodside's Scarborough project and Strike's 87 TJ/d (2.3mn m³/d) West Erregulla plant . But demand is weak on the back of the shutdown of several nickel mines for maintenance in 2024 and the closure of the 2.2mn t/yr Kwinana alumina refinery announced in January. Aemo's 10-year outlook to 2035 now forecasts surplus gas until 2028, when some gas users will reopen projects. It also forecasts a less steep shortfall in the 2030s, with 2033 supply now 13pc below demand, down from the 27pc decrease in the 2023 GSOO. New gas supply will still be needed as WA plans to close its state-owned fleet of coal-fired power stations, but increasing renewable generation will shift gas usage in the power grid to a firming capacity, with gas-fired power demand tipped to increase in the early 2030s but stabilise at present levels of about 190 TJ/d by 2040. But uncertainty remains about the future of coal in the WA grid. The 416MW Bluewaters coal-fired plant, owned by Japanese firms Kansai Electric and Sumitomo, is expected to retire by 2030-31 but may be forced to close earlier because its supplier, the 2mn t/yr Griffin coal mine , cannot guarantee deliveries beyond October 2026. This will increase gas demand. The WA state government reversed a blanket ban on exporting onshore gas as LNG in September after a parliamentary inquiry into the state's domestic gas policy prompted by concerns from major gas users such as fertilizer manufacturers and metals refiners. Developers are now permitted to export 20pc of production as LNG until 2031 to boost upstream investment in the prospective Perth basin. By Tom Major WA gas supply and demand 2024-34 (TJ/d) 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 Potential gas supply 1,143 1,190 1,121 1,207 1,192 1,412 1,335 1,301 1,214 1,173 1,144 Gas demand 1,119 1,069 1,082 1,154 1,354 1,342 1,357 1,378 1,371 1,343 1,336 Difference (% ± of demand) 2 11 4 5 -12 5 -2 -6 -12 -13 -14 Source: Aemo Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

News

Indonesia’s Pertamina seeks UCO for SAF output

19/12/24

News

19/12/24

Indonesia’s Pertamina seeks UCO for SAF output

Singapore, 19 December (Argus) — Indonesia's state-owned refiner Pertamina is seeking around 500t of used cooking oil (UCO) for trial production of co-processed sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) at its Cilacap refinery in the first quarter of 2025, sources close to the company said. The refiner is seeking UCO with better specifications from domestic Indonesian suppliers, said traders and sellers. The UCO will likely have a maximum of 2pc free fatty acid (FFA) content — compared with Argus -assessed maximum 5pc FFA Indonesian UCO — as well as low metals and chlorides content, said a trader, although this could not be confirmed with Pertamina. Earlier in December, Pertamina's refining and petrochemical subholding company, Kilang Pertamina Internasional (KPI), signed an initial agreement with Indonesian UCO supplier, PT Gapura Mas Lestari. Gapura will be supplying UCO to Pertamina in 2027, sources from both companies said. Indonesia's co-ordinating Ministry for Maritime Affairs and Investment had announced in September that international flights departing the country will be required to use 1pc SAF in their fuel mix in 2027. This will rise to 2.5pc by 2030, 12.5pc by 2040, 30pc by 2050, and 50pc by 2060. Pertamina's "green refinery" at its 348,000 b/d Cilacap plant aims to process 6,000 b/d of UCO to produce hydrotreated vegetable oil (HVO) and SAF, when its second phase comes on line, targeted to be in 2026 . Cilacap is eventually expected to produce around 300,000 kilolitres of HVO and SAF annually. Pertamina said Cilacap's HVO will be used as a blending component in diesel fuel with better quality, compared with traditional fatty acid methyl ester biodiesel. The firm added that its HVO is also designed to meet stringent market standards in countries like those in Europe and North America. Its SAF will meet Indonesia's demand, which is likely to rise after the country released its national roadmap for SAF development in September. Cilacap currently produces HVO, but from refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, and SAF from refined, bleached and deodorized palm kernel oil, a product of palm kernel oil processing. By Sarah Giam Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Business intelligence reports

Get concise, trustworthy and unbiased analysis of the latest trends and developments in oil and energy markets. These reports are specially created for decision makers who don’t have time to track markets day-by-day, minute-by-minute.

Learn more