Germany extends lockdown, tightens Easter measures

Market: Oil products
23/03/21

Germany has extended its nationwide Covid-19 restrictions to 18 April and will tighten measures for the Easter holiday weekend, the government said today.

This is a blow to any prospect of demand increases in Europe's largest market for road fuels. Fuel demand increased in March on the month but remains sluggish compared to last year's levels.

Chancellor Angela Merkel and the heads of the German states have agreed to extend into next month contact restrictions and home-working requirements. The government said that 1 April and 3 April will be "quiet days" in which "far-reaching reduction of all contacts" are required. This essentially extends the Easter weekend.

The new measures could further lower already sluggish fuel demand. Filling station operators have decreased term buying by around 20pc on the year this month, after year on year reductions of around 45pc in February. Still, average gasoline spot-volumes for pickup from terminals have increased by 65pc on the month so far in March, and diesel volumes by 45pc, according to deals submitted to Argus.

By Alina Rapoport

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22/11/24

Singapore bitumen export prices likely to fall further

Mumbai, 22 November (Argus) — Singapore seaborne bitumen prices are expected to continue falling in the near term because of limited import demand from southeast Asia and competitive offers from other exporting regions like south China and Thailand. The daily fob Singapore ABX 1 prices were assessed by Argus at $445/t on 21 November, while the weekly prices were last assessed on 15 November at $452/t, down by $7.50/t on the week. Singapore prices have been on a downtrend since the end of October, when demand for November- and December-loading cargoes slowed because of atypically low consumption in key importing countries like Indonesia and Vietnam. This led to insufficient ullage to continually procure cargoes. While prices reached the highest level since mid-November 2023 to $467.50/t on 27 September, tight supply offset limited demand](https://direct.argusmedia.com/newsandanalysis/article/2607417) and kept prices at the same level for most of October, before falling to $465.50/t fob Singapore on 25 October. Consumption in Vietnam has increased in the current quarter albeit slowly, especially in the north, but prolonged inclement weather in the southern and central regions has failed to lend support, Vietnam-based importers and southeast Asia-based exporters told Argus . Budget constraints and project cancellations have weighed on Indonesian consumption despite the last quarter being the usual peak demand season, Indonesia-based importers said. Domestic production stood at normal levels, making supply outpace demand, they added. The end-year consumption outlook is currently lower than previously expected, with spot cargo requirements also limited by term import commitments, regional imports said. Although consumption for Singapore-origin tank trucks remained stable from Malaysia — where a key refiner stopped producing bitumen in the first half of 2024 — there was no additional demand from Malaysia to support Singapore exports, market participants said. The weekly Singapore tank truck prices were assessed at $505/t ex-refinery on 15 November, down by $12.50/t on the week. Prices rose to their highest level since mid-December 2022 at $531/t ex-refinery in the week of 11 October, when Singapore refiners had to ration the available cargoes to tank truck dealers, but Malaysian demand started to ebb because of the northeast monsoon. Overall Australian consumption was also lower than in previous years on the back of budget constraints. While current consumption was up on the month because of pent-up post-winter demand, spot cargo import requirements are unlikely to rise, Australia-based importers said. Singapore exported about 2.28mn t of bitumen over January-October, down from 2.64mn t during the same period last year, latest data from Global Trade Tracker (GTT) show. Of the total, 1.47mn t was exported to southeast Asia, down from 1.64mn t during the same period last year, while 605,000t was exported to China, compared with 751,000t. Meanwhile,southeast Asia-based exporters have noted that supply from Singapore is outpacing demand, as many importers prefer to procure incremental requirements from Taiwan, Thailand, and south China as offers from those regions were competitive with Singapore values. This may push Singapore-based refiners to further clampdown output in the near term, they added, with a few expecting at least a 10pc cut in output in the coming months. Some market participants told Argus that south China has transacted around 30,000-50,000t of November-loading cargoes, with December-loading volumes also likely around the same level. Although offers from south China were around $440-450/t fob south China, similar to Singapore values, those on a cfr basis were much more competitive because of lower freight, southeast Asian importers argued. Thai cargoes were discussed around $5-10/t lower than Singapore values last week. The weekly fob Thailand prices were assessed at $447.50/t on 15 November, down by $5/t on the week, marking the lowest level since early September. Although one of the three bitumen procuring refineries in Thailand switched to producing fuel oil, the product's availability for exports was more than sufficient because of limited import demand in southeast Asia, market participants said. By Sathya Narayanan, Claire Ng and Chloe Choo Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Pemex's lean Zama spending undercuts goals

21/11/24

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21/11/24

Pemex's lean Zama spending undercuts goals

Mexico City, 21 November (Argus) — State-owned oil company Pemex's limited budget for developing one of Mexico's most-promising new oil fields is putting Mexico's crude production and refining goals at risk through 2030. First production from the Zama field will likely not start until at least 2028 instead of late next year, as forecast earlier, based on a timeline in a recent presentation from Pemex. Pemex continues to work on the basic engineering for the Zama field because of the lack of cash, staff of hydrocarbon regulator CNH said last week. The latest delay on Zama echoes criticism from when Pemex took over operating the field in 2022 that it did not have sufficient experience or funds to carry on with the project, said industry sources. "Unfortunately, the Pemex budget is always a shadowy mystery," said a person close to the project who asked not to be named. "There is no transparency or certainty regarding when they do and do not honor payment commitments." Zama is a shallow-water field unified in 2022 between Pemex area AE-152-Uchukil and the discovery made in 2017 by a consortium led by US oil company Talos Energy. Pemex holds 50.4pc of the Zama project while Talos and Slim's subsidiary Grupo Carso have 17.4pc, German company Wintershall Dea 17.4pc and British company Harbour Energy 12.4pc. The state-owned company expects to spend $370.8mn to develop Zama in 2025, 64pc less than the original $1.05bn budget proposed by Pemex for next year, according to data from CNH. The regulator cleared the change last week, but commissioners questioned the CNH staff about the new delays. Pemex's original development plan showed that the company forecast the first crude production by December 2025, with 2,000 b/d and about 4mn cf/d of gas. The original plan forecast Zama hitting peak production of 180,000 b/d in 2029, making it Mexico's second-largest crude producer, only under the Maloob field. President Claudia Sheinbaum and Pemex's new new chief executive Victor Rodriguez flagged the importance of shallow-water field Zama and ultra deep field Trion to support Pemex's oil production target of 1.8mn b/d in the upcoming six years in a presentation last week. Pemex's new plan is focused on feeding its own refining system rather than crude exports. The company expects to increase gasoline, diesel and jet fuel production by 343,000 b/d, according to the plan, but it did not give a timeline. Pemex produced 491,000 b/d of gasoline, diesel and jet fuel in the first nine months of 2024. Mexico's proposed 2025 federal budget also shows lower spending for Zama, at Ps3.1bn ($154mn) for 2025, even less than the figure approved by CNH on 14 November. Neither Pemex not Talos responded to requests for additional comment. "Zama is the story of the triumph of ideology over practicality," said a Pemex source who asked not to be named. The state-owned company is studying how to bring in new investors to the project once congress approves secondary laws to implement recent energy reforms, the source said. But uncertainty over the legal framework and the general deterioration of Mexico's business climate will make this more difficult, the Pemex source added. The involvement of Mexican billionaire Carlos Slim, who acquired 49.9pc of Talos Energy share in Zama last year, brought new hopes that work at Zama could finally accelerate. Instead, Slim's entrance slowed the project, as the new partner had to review the project, a former regulator who asked not to be named said. Talos Energy, the lead operator when the field was discovered over seven years ago, is now "frustrated" by the poor progress of the project. "We have Mexico, a great discovery in Zama, we're seven years into it, and still have not made a final investment decision on it," said Talos Energy interim chief executive Joseph Mills, in a conference call with investors last week. "So a lot of frustration there, as you can imagine." By Édgar Sígler Pemex 2024 crude output, throughput '000 b/d Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Cost of government support for fossil fuels still high

21/11/24

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21/11/24

Cost of government support for fossil fuels still high

London, 21 November (Argus) — The cost of government measures to support the consumption and production of fossil fuels dropped by almost third last year as energy prices declined from record highs in 2022, according to a new report published today by the OECD. But the level of fiscal support remained higher than the historical average despite government pledges to reduce carbon emissions. In an analysis of 82 economies, data from the OECD and the IEA found that government support for fossil fuels fell to an estimated $1.1 trillion in 2023 from $1.6 trillion a year earlier. Although energy prices were lower last year than in 2022, countries maintained various fiscal measures to both stimulate fossil fuel production and reduce the burden of high energy costs for consumers, the OECD said. The measures are in the form of direct payments by governments to individual recipients, tax concessions and price support. The latter includes "direct price regulation, pricing formulas, border controls or taxes, and domestic purchase or supply mandates", the OECD said. These government interventions come at a large financial cost and increase carbon emissions, undermining the net-zero transition, the report said. Of the estimated $1.1 trillion of support, direct transfers and tax concessions accounted for $514.1bn, up from $503.7bn in 2022. Transfers amounted to $269.8bn, making them more costly than tax concessions of $244.3bn. Some 90pc of the transfers were to support consumption by households and companies, the rest was to support producers. The residential sector benefited from a 22pc increase from a year earlier, and support to manufacturers and industry increased by 14pc. But the majority of fuel consumption measures are untargeted, and support largely does not land where it is needed, the OECD said. The "under-pricing" of fossil fuels amounted to $616.4bn last year, around half of the 2022 level, the report said. "Benchmark prices (based on energy supply costs) eased, particularly for natural gas, thereby decreasing the difference between the subsidised end-user prices and the benchmark prices," it said. In terms of individual fossil fuels, the fiscal cost of support for coal fell the most, to $27.7bn in 2023 from $43.5bn a year earlier. The cost of support for natural gas has grown steadily in recent years, amounting to $343bn last year compared with $144bn in 2018. The upward trend is explained by its characterisation as a transition fuel and the disruption of Russian pipeline supplies to Europe, the report said. By Alejandro Moreano and Tim van Gardingen Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Cop: Talks in Baku torn between mitigation and finance

21/11/24

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21/11/24

Cop: Talks in Baku torn between mitigation and finance

Edinburgh, 21 November (Argus) — Developing and developed nations remain at loggerheads on what progress on climate finance and mitigation — actions to cut greenhouse gas emissions — should look like at the UN Cop 29 climate summit. But Cop 30 host Brazil has reminded parties that they need to stick to the brief, which is finance for developing countries. Concluding a plenary where parties, developed and developing, listed grievances, environment minister Marina Silva recognised "the excellent progress achieved" on mitigation at Cop 28. She listed paragraphs of the Cop 28 deal, including the energy package and its historic call to transition away from fossil fuels in energy systems. "We are on the right track," she said, talking about mitigation, but "our greatest obligation at this moment is to make progress with regard to financing". "This is the core of financing that will pave our collective path in ambition and implementation at Cop 30," Silva said, adding that $1.3 trillion for developing countries should be "the guiding star of this Cop". Parties are negotiating a new collective quantified goal (NCQG) — a new climate finance target — building on the $100bn/yr that developed countries agreed to deliver to developing countries over 2020-25. But developed countries insist that a precise number for a goal can only be produced if there is progress on mitigation and financing structure for the NCQG. "Otherwise you have a shopping basket but you don't know what's in there," EU energy commissioner Wopke Hoekstra said. Some developing nations said they need the "headline number first". Some developing countries, including Latin American and African nations as well as island states, have also complained about the lack of mitigation ambition. Cop is facing one of the "weakest mitigation texts we have ever seen," Panama said. But they also indicated that financial support was missing to implement action. Developed countries at Cop 29 seek the implementation of the energy pledges made last year. "What we had on our agenda was not just to restate the [Cop 28] consensus but actually to enhance and to operationalise that," but the text goes in the opposite direction, Hoekstra said, talking about the latest draft on finance. Whether hints that Brazil has mitigation in focus for next year's summit will be enough to assuage concerns from developed countries at Cop 29 on fossil fuel ambitions remains to be seen. The communique of the G20, which the country hosted, does not explicitly mention the goal to transition away from fossil fuels either. The developed countries' mitigation stance grew firmer after talks on a work programme dedicated to mitigation, the obvious channel for fossil fuel language, was rescued from the brink of collapse last week. Discussions have stalled, but another text — the UAE dialogue which is meant to track progress on the outcomes of Cop 28 — still has options referring to fossil fuels. But in these negotiations too, divisions remain. "The UAE dialogue contains some positive optional language on deep, rapid and sustained emissions reductions and the [Cop 28] energy package, E3G said. But Saudi Arabia has made clear that this was unacceptable, while India, which worked to water down a coal deal at Cop 26, is pushing back on the 1.5°C temperature limit of the Paris Agreement. Negotiators are starting to run out of time. Draft after draft, the divide fails to be breached with no agreement on an amount for the finance deal. "We cannot talk about a lower or higher number because there is no number," noted Colombia's environment minister Susana Muhamad. The next iteration should have numbers based on the Cop 29 presidency's "view of possible landing zones". The fact that the draft text on finance has no bridging proposal is a concern, non-profit WRI director of international climate action David Waskow said. Finance was always meant to be the centrepiece of Cop 29. Parties have not formally discussed the goal in more than 15 years, and have been trying to prepare for a new deal through technical meetings for the past two years. But the discussion needs to end in Baku. By Caroline Varin Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Cop: EU, four countries commit to 1.5°C climate plans

21/11/24

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21/11/24

Cop: EU, four countries commit to 1.5°C climate plans

Baku, 21 November (Argus) — The EU, Canada, Mexico, Norway and Switzerland have committed to submit new national climate plans setting out "steep emission cuts", that are consistent with the global 1.5°C temperature increase limit sought by the Paris Agreement. The EU and four countries made the pledge at the UN Cop 29 climate summit in Baku, Azerbaijan today, and called on other nations to follow suit — particularly major economies. Countries are due to submit new climate plans — known as nationally determined contributions (NDCs) — covering 2035 goals to the UN climate body the UNFCCC by early next year. The EU, Canada, Mexico, Norway and Switzerland have not yet submitted their plans, but they will be aligned with a 1.5°C pathway, EU climate commissioner Wopke Hoekstra said today. The Paris climate agreement seeks to limit the global rise in temperature to "well below" 2°C and preferably to 1.5°C. Canada's NDC is being considered by the country's cabinet and will be submitted by the 10 February deadline, Canadian ambassador for climate change Catherine Stewart said today. Switzerland's new NDC will also be submitted by the deadline, the country's representative confirmed. Pamana's special representative for climate change Juan Carlos Monterrey Gomez also joined the press conference today. Panama, which is designated as carbon negative, submitted an updated NDC in June. It is planning to submit a nature pledge, Monterrey Gomez said. "It is time to streamline processes to get to real action", he added. The UK also backed the pledge. The UK announced an ambitious emissions reduction target last week. The UAE — which hosted Cop 28 last year — released a new NDC just ahead of Cop 29, while Brazil, host of next year's Cop 30, released its new NDC on 13 November during the summit. Thailand yesterday at Cop 29 communicated a new emissions reduction target . Indonesia last week said that it intends to submit its updated NDC ahead of the February deadline, with a plan placing a ceiling on emissions and covering all greenhouse gases as well as including the oil and gas sector. Colombia also indicated that its new climate plan will seek to address fossil fuels, but it will submit its NDC by June next year . By Georgia Gratton Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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