China imposes domestic travel curbs to stem Covid surge

Market: Crude oil, Oil products
04/08/21

China has imposed stricter domestic travel restrictions as its worst Covid-19 outbreak in over a year continues to spread, with 400 cases now reported since 20 July.

A total of 17 provinces have reported positive infections, while 144 regions have been upgraded to medium- and high-risk areas, the most since China went through its worst period of Covid-19 last year, an official from the National Health Commission (NHC) said today. The outbreak started in Nanjing in Jiangsu province and Zhengzhou in Henan province last month.

Road travel is also expected to fall as areas with Covid-19 cases have been instructed halt all travel in and out and suspend cross-city bus, taxi and hitchhiking services to medium- and high-risk regions, an official from the transport ministry said today.

Beijing's local healthcare commission has advised residents not to go out if there is no urgent need and imposed a ban on travellers departing from areas classified as medium or high risk, ordering hotels and travel agents to also cancel travel to these areas. Beijing has also reported new cases this week.

Jiangsu province, one of the major epicentres of the latest outbreak, has closed entrances and exits at 83 highway tolling gates, according to the transport ministry today. Nanjing airport has banned all passenger flights since the outbreak on 20 July. Road fuel retailers have also seen sales fall since the outbreak, pushing down prices and creating more pressure to export.

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15/04/25

United Airlines to cut 3Q capacity on uncertainty

Houston, 15 April (Argus) — United Airlines plans to decrease the number of flights it operates in the third quarter because of lower passenger numbers and economic uncertainties. The US-based air carrier said that it will be removing four percentage points of scheduled domestic capacity in the third quarter of 2025 and expects to retire 21 aircraft earlier than previously planned. Global economic uncertainty prompted the company to provide two scenarios for for its financial results for 2025 — one based on the US economy remaining weaker but stable, and the other for the US entering a recession. In the stable scenario, assuming current fuel price outlooks, the company expects a $11.50-$13.50 per share profit. Under the recessionary scenario profits would be in the $7-9/share range. Despite the possibility of slower busines, the airline plans to expand its investments at Chicago O'Hare International Airport in Chicago, Illinois, with six additional gates and plans to expand at San Francisco's international airport as well. 1Q results In the first quarter domestic passenger load factor — a measurement of capacity utilization — declined by 3.4 percentage points to 80.3pc compared to the same quarter in 2024. United's revenue passenger miles (RPM) — a measurement of total miles flown by paying passengers — increased by 3.6pc to 59.5bn miles in the first quarter compared to the previous year. Available seat miles (ASM) — a measure of capacity — rose by 4.9pc to 75.2bn miles in the quarter. United's average fuel cost decreased by 12.2pc to $2.53/USG during the first quarter. The airline consumed 4.1pc more fuel in the quarter. Total operating expenses rose by 1.3pc to $12.6bn in the quarter while total operating revenue increased by 5.4pc to $13.2bn. The airline reported $387mn profit in the first quarter, up from a $124mn loss reported a year earlier. By Hunter Fite Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Pemex road fuel inventories down in March

15/04/25

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15/04/25

Pemex road fuel inventories down in March

Mexico City, 15 April (Argus) — Mexican state-owned Pemex's road fuel inventories fell by 17pc in March from a year earlier, driven by lower regular and premium gasoline stocks. Pemex's regular gasoline, premium gasoline and diesel inventories at its 81 port and inland terminals decreased to 8mn bl in March, down from 9.6mn bl in March 2024, according to a Pemex transparency response to an Argus request. The company stored on average 5,350 bl of gasoline and 3,800 bl of ultra-low sulphur diesel (ULSD) at its Olmeca terminal in Dos Bocas in March. In the past, the energy ministry published Mexico's total fuel inventories — Pemex and non-Pemex — with a delay of up to two months, but it has not updated the data since late 2023. Pemex increased its gasoline and diesel production in February by 5pc from the same month a year prior, but imports dropped sharply by 30pc year-over-year to roughly 362,000 b/d. Regular gasoline inventories fell by 19pc to 4.1mn bl in March from a year earlier, despite higher domestic output, likely because of lower imports. Diesel stocks dropped by 10pc to 2.8mn bl from the previous year, while premium gasoline inventories sank by 23pc to 1.1mn bl, tracking an increase in premium gasoline demand as well as lower imports. Jet fuel stocks down Meanwhile, jet fuel inventories fell by 12pc to 368,800 bl in March from the prior year, Pemex data requested by Argus show. Pemex's jet fuel production dropped by 21pc to roughly 34,000 b/d in February from the same month a year earlier, while domestic sales decreased by 4pc to about 95,000 b/d in the same period. Jet fuel imports also declined, falling by 4pc to 55,000 b/d in February from the previous year. Pemex's March gasoline and diesel inventories were just over nine days' worth of the company's sales so far in 2025. Its jet fuel inventories were just under four days' worth. Mexico's minimum fuel storage policy — in effect since July 2020 — requires fuel sellers to have at least five days' worth of sales on hand for gasoline and diesel, and three days' worth of sales for jet fuel. By Cas Biekmann Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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IEA slashes 2025 global refinery runs growth forecast

15/04/25

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15/04/25

IEA slashes 2025 global refinery runs growth forecast

London, 15 April (Argus) — The IEA has sharply lowered its forecast for refinery run growth this year, citing escalating tensions in global trade. In its latest Oil Market Report (OMR) published today, the energy watchdog said it expects growth in global crude runs of 340,000 b/d, down by 40pc from its previous forecast of 570,000 b/d. The IEA sees total global crude runs averaging 83.2mn b/d this year. Increased throughput from non-OECD countries still drives this year's growth, with the IEA expecting an increase of 830,000 b/d to 47.6mn b/d. The IEA has not adjusted this figure, as stronger runs in China through the first quarter of this year and higher Russian forecasts have offset downgrades in other non-OECD countries. Chinese crude runs in January and February averaged 15.2mn b/d, around 470,000 b/d higher than the IEA's forecast, it said. The body raised its Russian forecasts from the second quarter as Ukrainian attacks on Russian infrastructure have slowed. The IEA forecasts OECD refinery runs will fall by 490,000 b/d this year because of refinery closures, resulting in a cut from its previous forecast of 100,000 b/d, to 35.6mn b/d. OECD Europe runs are forecast to fall by 310,000 b/d on the year to 10.9mn b/d. OECD crude runs rose by 200,000 b/d on the year in February, 40,000 b/d higher than the IEA expected. Throughput was particularly weak in the first quarter of 2024, when extreme cold cut US run rates. In Mexico, state-owned Pemex's 340,000 b/d Olmeca refinery has still not reached stable operations having started up in mid-2024. The refinery ran no crude in January because of crude quality constraints, the IEA said, and February output there was 7,000 b/d. The IEA estimates the refinery's second crude unit will come online in the fourth quarter. The IEA said refiners will add more than 1mn b/d of global capacity in 2026, but it forecast growths in crude runs of only 300,000 b/d for that year. Assuming all new and expanded refineries come into operation by then, producers will have to cut runs at older refineries, it said. Capacity additions will be largest in Asia-Pacific. The IEA expects China's 320,000 b/d Panjin refinery to come online in the second half of 2026, and for producers to add capacity of 480,000 b/d in India. It sees growth in crude runs as focused on the Mideast Gulf, and runs across the OECD falling. By Josh Michalowski Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Keystone oil pipeline to restart today, pressure capped

14/04/25

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14/04/25

Keystone oil pipeline to restart today, pressure capped

Calgary, 14 April (Argus) — The 622,000 b/d Keystone oil pipeline is repaired and has approval to restart at a reduced pressure less than a week after spilling crude in North Dakota. Pipeline operator South Bow is planning a "controlled restart" of the Keystone system today, provided weather cooperates, the company said. The repair and restart plans were approved by the Pipeline and Hazardous Materials Safety Administration (PHMSA), which issued a corrective action order (COA) to the Calgary-based midstream company on 11 April. The pipeline is a major carrier of Canadian heavy crude destined for both the US midcontinent and the Gulf coast but was shut down on 8 April after spilling 3,500 bl near Kathryn, North Dakota. About 2,845 bl had been recovered by 12 April, according to PHMSA. The COA indicates Keystone was operating at 1,251 pounds per square inch gauge (psig) at the time of failure, below the maximum allowed operating pressure of 1,440 psig for the pipeline. Flow rate at the time of failure was 17,844 bl per hour. Keystone will be capped at 80pc of the pressure at the time of the failure, or 1,000 psig. PHMSA noted five prior spills from Keystone occurring in 2016, 2017, 2019, 2020 and 2022 that saw releases of 400, 6,592, 4,515, 442 and 12,937 bl of crude, respectively, which "show a tendency or pattern in recent years of increasingly frequent incidents resulting in larger releases". Prices on either side of the pipeline break narrowed ahed of Keystone's imminent return-to-service. Heavy sour Western Canadian Select (WCS) in Hardisty, Alberta, has narrowed by about 75¢/bl to a $9.10/bl discount to the May Nymex WTI calendar month average, so far, while the same assessment in the Houston, Texas, area has widened by nearly 30¢/bl to about a $2.40/bl discount to the May basis. By Brett Holmes Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Funding cuts could delay US river lock work: Correction

14/04/25

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14/04/25

Funding cuts could delay US river lock work: Correction

Corrects lock locations in paragraph 5. Houston, 14 April (Argus) — The US Army Corps of Engineers (Corps) will have to choose between various lock reconstruction and waterway projects for its annual construction plan after its funding was cut earlier this year. Last year Congress allowed the Corps to use $800mn from unspent infrastructure funds for other waterways projects. But when Congress passed a continuing resolutions for this year's budget they effectively removed that $800mn from what was a $2.6bn annual budget for lock reconstruction and waterways projects. This means a construction plan that must be sent to Congress by 14 May can only include $1.8bn in spending. No specific projects were allocated funding by Congress, allowing the Corps the final say on what projects it pursues under the new budget. River industry trade group Waterways Council said its top priority is for the Corps to provide a combined $205mn for work at the Montgomery lock in Pennsylvania on the Ohio River and Chickamauga lock in Tennessee on the Tennessee River since they are the nearest to completion and could become more expensive if further delayed. There are seven active navigation construction projects expected to take precedent, including the following: the Chickamauga and Kentucky Locks on the Tennessee River; Locks 2-4 on the Monongahela River; the Three Rivers project on the Arkansas River; the LaGrange Lock on the Illinois River; Lock 25 on the Mississippi River; and the Montgomery Lock on the Ohio River. There are three other locks in Texas, Pennsylvania and Illinois that are in the active design phase (see map) . By Meghan Yoyotte Corps active construction projects 2025 Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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