Atlantic hurricane season set to intensify: NOAA

Market: Chemicals, Crude oil, Electricity, LPG, Natural gas, Oil products
06/08/21

The 2021 Atlantic hurricane season should have more storms than previously anticipated as conditions remain conducive, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) mid-season update.

"After a record-setting start, the 2021 Atlantic hurricane season does not show any signs of relenting as it enters the peak months ahead," a NOAA administrator said.

Atlantic sea surface temperatures are not expected to be as warm as they were during the 2020 season, which had a record-breaking 30 storms, 14 hurricanes and seven major hurricanes, NOAA said. But reduced vertical wind shear and an enhanced west Africa monsoon are likely to contribute to increased hurricane activity this season.

The August update expects 15-21 named storms versus 13-20 in the previous outlook. Seven to 10 of them are expected to become hurricanes, three to five of which will become major hurricanes. Thus far, the season has had five storms and one non-major hurricane.

A normal hurricane season has 14 named storms, seven hurricanes and three major hurricanes, according to NOAA's data updated earlier this year.

Oil and natural gas markets are less exposed to hurricane activity due to increased onshore production over the last several years, although storms that make landfall along the US Gulf coast can still disrupt refinery operations and ports, including LNG export facilities. Hurricanes can also knock out electrical infrastructure along the coast and for miles inland in several US states, stunting gas-fired power demand.

The 2021 Atlantic hurricane season began on 1 June and ends on 30 November.

By David Haydon

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