Generic Hero BannerGeneric Hero Banner
Latest market news

China ETS: Emissions prices settle at record low

  • Market: Coal, Emissions
  • 20/08/21

Prices in China's emission trading scheme (ETS) have fallen to the lowest level since the market started trading last month, while trading volumes also dropped this week.

Prices settled at 49 yuan/t ($7.50/t) of CO2 equivalent (CO2e) today, below the Yn51.23/t settlement on the first trading day on 16 July.

Total volumes were 1.42mn t of CO2e this week, including 22,012t of open-bid trades and 1.4mn t of bulk agreements. The volume of open-bid trades has now fallen for five straight weeks.

The weighted-average open-bid price was Yn50.54/t this week, 7.6pc lower than a week earlier. The average price for the bulk agreement transactions was Yn45/t, down by 10.5pc from last week.

The ETS is a new initiative for China, has many shortcomings and needs to be improved, Huang Runqiu, China's ecology and environment minister, said this week. "We must be cautious and steady in the progress," he said.

The environment ministry is the government body overseeing the ETS and China's climate change policies.

More details on regulation of emissions trading are likely to be published soon, Huang said. China will set up a voluntary emissions reduction mechanism and include more emissions entities and third-party traders in the ETS to help increase market activity.

China certified emissions reduction (CCER), a voluntary emissions reduction programme that typically covers forestry and renewable power projects, has not yet been adopted by the national ETS. CCER trading has been included in the pilot ETSs that operate in seven cities and provinces, with total CCER volumes of 1.94mn t last week.

China's national forestry and grassland administration is pushing ahead with a trading scheme for forestry and grassland carbon sinks, officials said in a briefing today. The ministry will encourage forestry projects to participate in the national ETS as part of the carbon offset mechanism.

Weekly policy review

China's top economic planning body the NDRC has issued new warnings to some local governments that missed targets to control energy intensity in the first half of this year.

Nine provinces or regions — Guangdong, Jiangsu, Yunnan, Fujian, Shaanxi, Guangxi, Ningxia, Qinghai and Xinjiang — have been issued code red warnings after increasing their energy intensity in January-June. These provinces must suspend approvals of new energy-intensive projects for the rest of the year, the NDRC said in a statement on 17 August.

The warnings could encourage some provinces to consider power rationing over the high demand winter season.

China ETS volumes, prices

Sharelinkedin-sharetwitter-sharefacebook-shareemail-share

Related news posts

Argus illuminates the markets by putting a lens on the areas that matter most to you. The market news and commentary we publish reveals vital insights that enable you to make stronger, well-informed decisions. Explore a selection of news stories related to this one.

News
02/05/25

Australia's Coalition eyes power, resource funding cuts

Australia's Coalition eyes power, resource funding cuts

Sydney, 2 May (Argus) — Australia's federal Coalition opposition has announced it will cut key energy rebates and resource sector subsidies, if elected on 3 May, to reduce forecast future budget deficits. The Peter Dutton-led opposition will cut programs, including the Labor government's A$20bn ($12.8bn) Rewiring the Nation transmission plan, and the A$15bn National Reconstruction Fund aimed at underwriting green manufacturing using domestic minerals. It will also unwind electric vehicle tax concessions to save A$3.2bn, and cancel planned production tax credits for critical minerals processing and green hydrogen estimated to cost A$14.7bn. Combined savings measures will improve the budget's position by A$13.9bn over the four years to 2028-29, the Coalition said on 1 May, cutting debt by A$40bn during the same timeframe. The announcement comes as opinion polls show Australia's next federal government is likely to force one of the two major parties into minority, after a campaign where cost-of-living relief promises have trumped economic reform policy. The centre-left Labor party is more likely than the conservative Coalition to form government at the 3 May poll. It holds a thin majority of just three seats in parliament's main chamber, the House of Representatives, meaning a swing against it would force it to deal with minor parties such as the Greens and independent groupings. Promising a stable government, as Australia emerged from Covid-19, Labor had benefited from a resources boom as Russia's invasion of Ukraine led LNG and coal receipts to skyrocket and China's emergence from lockdowns revitalised its demand for iron ore, which jointly form the nation's main commodity exports. But as markets adjust to a period of protectionist trade policy and predictions of a slowdown in global growth abound, economists have criticised the major parties' reluctance to embrace major reform on areas such as taxation, while continuing to spend at elevated levels post-pandemic. Australia's resource and energy commodity exports are forecast to fall to A$387bn in the fiscal year to 30 June 2025 from A$415bn in 2023–24. The Office of the Chief Economist is predicting further falls over the next five years, reaching A$343bn in 2029-30, lowering expected government revenue from company tax and royalties. Gas The Coalition has pledged a domestic reservation scheme for the east coast, forcing 50-100PJ (1.34bn-2.68bn m³/yr) into the grid by penalising spot LNG cargoes. Australia's upstream lobby has opposed this, but rapidly declining reserves offshore Victoria state mean gas may need to be imported to the nation's south, depending on the success of electrification efforts and an uncertain timeline for coal-fired power retirements. Labor has resisted such further gas interventions , but it is unclear how it will reverse a trend of rising gas prices and diminishing domestic supply, despite releasing a future gas plan last year. The party is promising 82pc renewables nationally by 2030, meaning it will have to nearly double the 2025 year-to-date figure of 42pc. This could require 15GW of gas-fired capacity by 2050 to firm the grid. On environmental policy, narrowing polls mean Labor's likely partners in government could be the anti-fossil fuel Greens and climate-focused independents — just some of the present crossbench of 16 out of a parliament of 151. The crossbench may drive a climate trigger requirement in any changes to environmental assessments, which could rule out new or brownfield coal and gas projects. Coal has been conspicuously absent from policy debates, but Labor has criticised the Coalition's nuclear energy policy as expensive and unproven, while the Coalition has said Labor's renewables-led grid would be unstable and costly because of new transmission requirements. The impact of the US tariff shock that dominated opening days of the month-long election campaign remains unclear. Unlike Canada, Australia is yet to be directly targeted by US president Trump's rhetoric on trade balances and barriers. But the global unease that has set in could assist Labor's prime minister Anthony Albanese, as he presents an image of continuity in an uncertain world economy. Australia's main exposure to Trump tariffs is via China, its largest trading partner and destination for about 35pc of exports, including metal concentrates, ores, coal and LNG. A downturn in the world's largest manufacturer would spell difficult times ahead for Australia, as it grapples with balancing its budget in a normalising commodity market. By Tom Major Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Find out more
News

India extends directive to lift coal-fired generation


02/05/25
News
02/05/25

India extends directive to lift coal-fired generation

Singapore, 2 May (Argus) — India's power ministry has extended its directive requiring imported coal-fired utilities to boost generation by two months until 30 June, a move that could support demand for seaborne coal over the peak summer period. The directive covers imported coal-fired plants with a combined capacity of 17.5GW and was previously set to expire on 30 April. The decision could support India's coal imports, which have remained lacklustre so far in 2025. India imported 38.29mn t of thermal coal in January-March, down from 41.87mn t a year earlier, according to data from shipbroker Interocean. Imports may have remained under pressure in April, with India's seaborne thermal coal receipts estimated at 15.77mn t for the month, down from 15.84mn t a year earlier, according to trade analytics platform Kpler. India's coal-fired generation remained above the historical average in April in line with the uptick in power demand, although actual coal burn was down on the month and year. India's coal-fired generation — which meets most of its power requirements — stood at 113.48 TWh in April, down from 116.58 TWh a year earlier and 117.95 TWh a month earlier, according to data from the Central Electricity Authority (CEA). The extension of the order appears to be a pre-emptive measure by the authorities to ensure imported coal-fired utilities are well stocked to meet any uptick in power demand. The country is currently sitting on a surplus of domestic coal, with elevated inventory at its utilities. Delhi has been proactively directing utilities to boost output since mid-2022 to cater for seasonal surges in power demand. Combined coal inventories at Indian power plants stood at 56.69mn t as of 30 April, up from 47.92mn t a year earlier, but down from 58.11mn t as of 31 March, CEA data show. Inventories at state-controlled Coal India (CIL) also remained high, according to market participants. By Saurabh Chaturvedi Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

News

US bill would extend expired biofuel credits


01/05/25
News
01/05/25

US bill would extend expired biofuel credits

New York, 1 May (Argus) — Legislation soon to be introduced in the US House would extend expired biofuel incentives through 2026, potentially providing a reprieve to refiners that have curbed production this year because of policy uncertainty. The bill, which will be sponsored by US representative Mike Carey (R-Ohio) and some other Republicans on the powerful House Ways and Means Committee, according to a person familiar, could be introduced as soon as today. It would prolong both the long-running $1/USG for blenders of biomass-based diesel and a separate incentive that offers up to $1.01/USG for producers of cellulosic ethanol. The credits expired at the end of last year but under the proposal would be extended through both 2025 and 2026. The incentives would run alongside the Inflation Reduction Act's new "45Z" credit for clean fuel producers, which offers a sliding scale of benefits based on carbon intensity, though the bill would prevent double claiming of credits, according to bill text shared with Argus . The 45Z credit is less generous across the board to road fuels — offering $1/USG only for carbon-neutral fuels and much less for crop-based diesels — and is still in need of final rules after President Joe Biden's administration issued only preliminary guidance around qualifying. The proposal then would effectively offer a more generous alternative through 2026 for biodiesel, renewable diesel, and cellulosic ethanol but not for other fuels that can claim the technology-neutral 45Z incentive. That could upend the economics of renewable fuel production. Vegetable oil-based diesels for instance could claim the blenders credit and earn more than aviation fuels that draw from the same feedstocks. According to Argus Consulting estimates, aviation fuels derived from wastes like distillers corn oil and domestic used cooking should still earn more than $1/USG this year, conversely, since 45Z is more generous to aviation fuels. Extending the biodiesel blenders credit would also allow foreign fuel imports to again claim federal subsidies, a boost for Finnish refiner Neste and the ailing Canadian biofuel startup Braya Renewable Fuels but a controversial provision for US refiners and feedstock suppliers. The 45Z incentive can only be claimed by US producers. The blenders incentive is also popular among fuel marketer groups, which have warned that shifting subsidies to producers could up fuel costs. The proposal adds to a contentious debate taking place across the biofuel value chain about what the future of clean fuel incentives should look like. Some industry groups see a wholesale reversion to preexisting biofuel credits — or even a temporary period where various partly overlapping incentives coexist — as a tough sell to cost-concerned lawmakers and have instead pushed for revamping 45Z. A proposal last month backed by some farm groups would keep the 45Z incentive but ban foreign feedstocks and adjust carbon intensity modeling to benefit crops. Republicans could keep, modify, extend, or repeal the 45Z incentive as part of negotiations around a larger tax bill this year. But the caucus is still negotiating how much to reduce the federal budget deficit and what to do with Inflation Reduction Act incentives that have spurred clean energy projects in conservative districts. Uncertainty about the future of biofuel policy and sharply lower margins to start 2025 have led to a recently pronounced drop in biodiesel and renewable diesel production . President Donald Trump's administration is working on new biofuel blend mandates, which could be proposed in the coming weeks, but has said little about its plans for biofuel tax policy. By Cole Martin Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

News

US factory activity contracts for 2nd month in April


01/05/25
News
01/05/25

US factory activity contracts for 2nd month in April

Houston, 1 May (Argus) — US manufacturing activity contracted in April for a second month, as output and new orders slowed on tariff policy uncertainty, while price gains accelerated. The Institute for Supply Management's manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) fell to 48.7 in April, down from 49 in March and the lowest since last November. The threshold between contraction and expansion is 50. The two-month contraction in manufacturing activity follows a two-month expansion preceded by 26 consecutive months of contraction. ISM's services PMI, a separate report that tracks the biggest part of the economy, showed nine months of expansion through March. "Demand and production retreated and de-staffing continued, as panelists' companies responded to an unknown economic environment," ISM said Thursday. "Prices growth accelerated slightly due to tariffs, causing new-order placement backlogs, supplier delivery slowdowns and manufacturing inventory growth." The manufacturing data follows a report Wednesday that showed the US economy contracted at an annualized 0.3pc pace in the first quarter as businesses boosted imports and stocked up on goods ahead of US import tariffs. The ISM's new-orders index came in at 47.2, higher than 45.2 in March but showing contraction for a third month. The production index fell to 44, showing a deepening contraction from 48.3 in the prior month. Employment rose by 1.8 points to 46.5, showing a slowing contraction. New export orders contracted faster at 43.1 in April, while imports entered contraction at 47.1 after barely growing, at 50.1, the prior month. The prices index rose to 69.8, up from 69.4 the prior month and signaling quickening expansion. The inventories index fell by 2.6 points to 50.8, marking a second month of expansion after six months of contraction. By Bob Willis Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

News

Indonesia's coal power phase-out hinges on funding


01/05/25
News
01/05/25

Indonesia's coal power phase-out hinges on funding

Manila, 1 May (Argus) — Indonesia's accelerated coal-fired power phase-out plan hinges on private-sector and international partners financial support, the country's energy ministry said, after issuing further guidance last month. Indonesian energy ministry ESDM published a ministerial regulation in early April outlining the criteria and processes for the early retirement of coal-fired power plants. But the plan will not be carried out if there is no clarity over funding for its energy transition efforts, in which case Jakarta will continue to prioritise domestic energy production, including through fossil-based sources, ESDM said this week. The Indonesian government will not use its state budget or funds from state-owned utility PLN to fund the early retirement of coal-fired plants, ESDM said. The new regulation details the evaluation processes for retiring coal-fired plants early, and emphasises the need for financial support from private-sector or international partners to achieve an accelerated phase out. Policy makers will evaluate the impact of a plant's retirement on the country's electricity grid, power supply and electricity tariffs, among other factors, when considering its phase out, ESDM said. It will also take into account aspects of the Just Energy Transition Partnership (JETP) climate financing pact signed with rich nations in 2022, such as the livelihood of employees affected by the phase-out, as well as a plant's capacity, age, utilisation, greenhouse gas emissions and economic value. The availability of foreign and domestic technological support will also be considered; according to ESDM. US president Donald Trump's decision to withdraw the US from the JETP raised concerns earlier this year on whether Indonesia could stick to its energy transition policies, but the country recently secured $60mn in JETP funding to develop a solar project . State-owned utility PLN will be tasked with studying the technical, legal, commercial and financial aspects of decommissioning plants that are put forward for early retirement, including funding sources. It will have to submit a report to the ministry no later than six months from the date a plant is identified for decommissioning, ESDM said. The share of renewables in Indonesia's power mix is expected to rise to around 21pc by 2030 and 41pc by 2040, according to think-tank Ember. By Antonio delos Reyes Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Generic Hero Banner

Business intelligence reports

Get concise, trustworthy and unbiased analysis of the latest trends and developments in oil and energy markets. These reports are specially created for decision makers who don’t have time to track markets day-by-day, minute-by-minute.

Learn more