Generic Hero BannerGeneric Hero Banner
Latest market news

Demand destruction hits European gas market

  • Market: Natural gas
  • 14/10/21

Gas demand from industry in major European gas-consuming countries has begun to fall as an increasing number of plants that produce steel, chemicals and other products either curtail output or close in response to record-high wholesale prices.

According to Argus analysis, industries in Germany, the Netherlands, Spain, Italy, France, Poland, the UK and Portugal consumed a combined 3.27 TWh/d of gas last week — the lowest for calendar week 41 since at least 2017, including during the Covid-19 lockdowns of 2020 and 2021.

That weekly figure is about 8pc lower than the 3.57 TWh/d consumed in the same period last year and 4pc below the three-year average of 3.42 TWh/d.

As of last week, industrial gas demand in these eight economies this year had averaged 3.55 TWh/d, slightly higher than the same period in 2020 and 2017, but shy of the averages of 3.56 TWh/d in pre-Covid 2019 and 3.69 TWh/d in 2018.

In recent months, industrial gas consumption trends in the eight countries — which represent the bulk of that type of European demand — have defied seasonal norms and suggest that a variety of energy-intensive firms will continue cutting operations in the coming weeks and months (see European, German demand graphs).

In a typical calendar year, gas consumption by major European industrial economies follows a U-shape, hitting a post-new year high around February, gradually declining toward an annual low during summer holidays in July and August, then recovering to a second peak before Christmas.

This year, industrial gas use generally followed seasonal trends until mid-September when demand abruptly fell by over 100 GWh/d to low levels unseen in recent years, before continuing on a diminished upward trajectory.

At that time, wholesale gas markets were rallying, with front-month benchmarks at the Dutch TTF and UK NBP hubs steadily rising toward peaks of €117-120/MWh on 5 October, in the face of winter supply concerns, low storage inventories in key markets and rallying LNG prices.

UK weighs on demand

While most countries have experienced lower industrial demand to some degree, the UK emerges as a driving force behind this wave of demand destruction, when established industrial consumers cut or effectively stop using gas (see UK demand graphs).

Rallying gas prices prompted a handful of industrial consumers across the continent to reduce operations last month, including CF Industries, which announced plans in mid-September to temporarily close two UK fertiliser plants.

Around the same time, while industries across Europe considered their options, a number of UK steel plants and Spanish silicon producer Ferroglobe either stepped down or idled plants, citing higher power prices, driven in part by costly in-feed from gas-fired plants across Europe.

Front-month gas prices have eased somewhat this week to €85-95/MWh, but remain more than four times higher than at the start of 2021. Accordingly, the spectre of demand destruction looms over the UK and its European neighbours, with Spanish steelmaker Sidenor Group announcing it would temporarily take its Basauri plant off line at the start of this week.

It is unclear how far European demand will fall, as different businesses are coping in different ways.

The UK-based Major Energy Users Council (MEUC), which represents large-scale consumers such as Network Rail and Transport for London, told Argus that while long-term energy supply contracts have helped businesses weather the storm, their forward positions are anything but certain.

"I am not aware of any member reducing output or closing, in fact in most cases they cannot contemplate doing so," MEUC technical director Eddie Proffitt said. "In most cases, members take a sensible approach to energy buying, hedging various volumes going forward... the increase is hitting them, but not for the whole of their bill."

But as fixed-price contracts near expiry, some MEUC members shopping for energy have only been able to source quotes from their current suppliers at "massive increases", he said. "There are even requests for deposits or parent-company guarantees," he added.

While certain industries, including glass making, are reportedly considering substituting fuel oil for natural gas in certain processes, sustained high gas prices suggest a combination of further demand destruction and higher retail prices for certain products.

Weekly European industrial gas demand TWh/d

Weekly German industrial demand TWh/d

Weekly UK industrial gas demand mn m³/d

Sharelinkedin-sharetwitter-sharefacebook-shareemail-share

Related news posts

Argus illuminates the markets by putting a lens on the areas that matter most to you. The market news and commentary we publish reveals vital insights that enable you to make stronger, well-informed decisions. Explore a selection of news stories related to this one.

News
09/04/25

Trump coal plant bailout renews first term fight

Trump coal plant bailout renews first term fight

Washington, 9 April (Argus) — President Donald Trump's effort to stop the retirement of coal-fired power plants is reminiscent of a 2017 attempt that faltered in the face of widespread industry opposition. Trump, in an executive order signed on Tuesday, directed the US Department of Energy (DOE) to tap into emergency powers to stop the retirement of coal-fired plants and other large plants it believes are critical to grid reliability. The order sets a 30-day deadline for DOE to decide which plants are critical based on a new methodology that will analyze if reserve margins, or the percent of unused capacity at peak demand, are at an "acceptable" level. The initiative shares similarities to Trump's unsuccessful effort in his first term to bail out coal and nuclear plants. In the 2017 effort, Trump backed a "grid resiliency" proposal to compensate power plants with 90 days of on-site fuel. But an unusual coalition of natural gas industry groups, manufacturers, renewable producers and environmentalists united against the idea, warning it would upend power markets and cost consumers billions of dollars each year. The US Federal Energy Regulatory Commission voted 5-0 to reject the proposal. It remains unclear if a similarly sized coalition will emerge to fight Trump's latest proposal, under which DOE would use emergency powers in section 202(c) of the Federal Power Act to keep some coal plants and other large power plants operating. Industry groups have largely been avoiding taking positions that could be seen as critical of Trump. Environmentalists say they strongly oppose keeping coal plants operating using emergency powers. Doing so would mean more air pollution and greenhouse gas emissions, they say, and higher costs for consumers. Environmental groups say they are hoping other industries affected by the potential bailout will eventually speak out against the initiative. "The silence from those who know better is deafening," Center for Biological Diversity climate law institute legal director Jason Rylander said. "I hope that we will start to see more resistance to these dangerous policies before significant damage is done." DOE said it was "already hard at work" to implement Trump's executive order, which was paired with other orders that were meant to support coal mining and coal production. US energy secretary Chris Wright said today that reviving coal will increase the reliability of the electrical grid and bring down electricity costs, but he has not shared further details on the 202(c) initiative. Trying to litigate the program could be "tricky", and section 202(c) orders have never successfully been challenged in court, in part because they are usually short-term orders, Harvard Law School Electricity Law Initiative director Ari Peskoe said. But opponents could challenge them by focusing on "numerous legal problems", he said, such as not allowing public comment or running afoul of a US Supreme Court precedent that prohibits agencies from attempting to decide "major questions" without clear congressional authorization. "Here DOE would use a little-used statute explicitly written for short-term emergencies in order to PREVENT a change in the US energy mix," Peskoe said. A projected 8.1GW of coal-fired generation is set to retire this year, equivalent to nearly 5pc of the coal fleet, the US Energy Information Administration said last month. Electric utilities often decide which plants to retire years in advance, allowing them to defer maintenance and to forgo capital investments in aging facilities. Keeping coal plants running could require exemptions from environmental rules or pricey capital investments, the costs of which would likely be distributed among other ratepayers. By Chris Knight Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Find out more
News

What do tariffs mean for the global gas market?


09/04/25
News
09/04/25

What do tariffs mean for the global gas market?

Some countries are considering retaliatory tariffs, while others hope to reduce their trade deficit in order to negotiate lower rates London, 9 April (Argus) — Newly announced US tariffs on goods entering the country and some of the countermeasures already announced by large trade partners are unlikely to cause any direct disruptions to global gas markets. But the indirect effects on gas supply and demand may be huge, stemming from a weaker macroeconomic outlook, fuel substitution and inflationary pressures on infrastructure development. US president Donald Trump on 2 April imposed a minimum 10pc tax on all foreign imports from 5 April,with much higher tariffs on selected countries that briefly came into force on 9 April, before Trump announced a 90-day pause. China is the only exception. It has announced retaliatory tariffs that could disrupt US energy exports, resulting in an escalation that has already brought up the respective levies to 125pc in the US and 84pc in China. These are unlikely to have any direct impact on LNG trade flows, as China had already stopped importing US LNG earlier this year. But disruptions to trade between the world's two largest economies may weigh heavily on manufacturing activity in China, in turn reducing industrial gas demand. And the ripple effects of disruptions to US LPG exports to China may alter fuel-switching economics in the region and beyond. Most other countries in Asia-Pacific have opted not to follow China's lead by retaliating against US tariffs, even though many have warned about the potential for long-term economic disruption. The Japanese government intends to negotiate a better tariff deal and is considering investing in the US' proposed 20mn t/yr Alaska LNG export project as part of wider efforts to reduce its trade surplus with the US. Countries in Asia-Pacific have been hit with some of the highest of Trump's targeted duties. The EU is keeping retaliatory measures on the table, but these are unlikely to include any levy on US LNG. Europe has become much more reliant on LNG imports after losing the bulk of its Russian pipeline supply, and imposing tariffs on energy imports would only reignite inflationary pressures that European countries have tried to curb over the past three years. The bloc says it is ready to negotiate on possibly increasing its US LNG imports to reduce its trade surplus and would zero out its tariffs on industrial imports if the US agrees to do the same. But Trump says this offer is not enough, citing the EU's upcoming Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism as one of the "unfair trade practices" that justifies a tariff response. Nerves of steel Much greater risks for gas markets may stem from rising infrastructure costs in the US' upstream and midstream sectors, particularly as a result of earlier tariffs imposed on steel and aluminum imports. These present an immediate risk for US LNG developers, particularly for the five projects under construction and the six others expected to reach final investment decisions this year. Metals account for up to 30pc of the cost of building an LNG export plant. An LNG terminal can cost $5bn-25bn to build, depending on its size, with steel used for pipelines, tanks and other structural frameworks. US facilities can be built using some domestic metal, but higher prices for this may lead to construction and final investment decision delays for the country's planned liquefaction projects. US tariffs' primary effect on the domestic gas market stems from duties levied on non-energy goods used by the oil and gas industry, including steel and specialised pipeline components such as valves and compressors, which are imported from overseas. The US remains a net natural gas importer from Canada , but these flows are unlikely to be affected by trade tariffs given the lack of alternative supply sources available to some northern US states. US LNG project pipeline mn t/yr Project Capacity Expected start/FID Under construction Plaquemines 19.2 2025 Corpus Christi stage 3 12.0 2025 Golden Pass 18.1 2026 Rio Grande 17.6 2027 Port Arthur 13.5 2027 Waiting for final investment decision Delfin FLNG 1 13.2 mid-2025 Texas LNG 4.0 2025 Calcasieu Pass 2 28.0 mid-2025 Corpus Christi train 8-9 3.3 2025 Louisiana LNG 16.5 mid-2025 Cameron train 4 6.8 mid-2025 Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

News

Tokyo may use Alaska LNG as leverage in US tariff talks


09/04/25
News
09/04/25

Tokyo may use Alaska LNG as leverage in US tariff talks

Osaka, 9 April (Argus) — Tokyo will likely use the possibility of purchases from the US' proposed 20mn t/yr Alaska LNG export project, as part of wider efforts to reduce the US' trade deficit with Japan, to negotiate for a better tariff deal. US president Donald Trump's 10pc tariff on imports from all countries took effect on 5 April, with exemptions for some commodities . The higher "reciprocal" taxes are due to enter into force at 12:01 ET (04:01 GMT) on 9 April, including Japan at 24pc. The Japanese government on 8 April held its first ministerial task force with prime minister Shigeru Ishiba attending, to discuss potential measures against new US tariffs. Details are still under consideration, but Ishiba is ready to use every possible method to mitigate the impact of looming US tariffs on the Japanese economy, as he sees this as a "national disaster". Japan, a long-standing ally of the US, is unlikely to respond in kind to the US tariff and will instead seek mutually beneficial solutions. Ishiba is aiming to present Trump with a package of measures across a wide range of issues, such as in the energy, agriculture, shipbuilding and automobile sectors, rather than piecemeal requests. The package could include Japan's stance on the Alaska LNG project and ethanol developments, Ishiba stated on 7 April when responding to questions in the Diet. Tokyo may use the Alaska LNG as part of its tariff negotiation, as buying more US LNG could ease Japan's trade surplus against the US. The trade imbalance between Japan and the US stood at ¥8.64 trillion in 2024, equivalent to about $58.6bn at current exchange rates, Japanese customs data show. Japan's LNG purchases from the US rose by 15pc on the year to 6.34mn t in 2024, accounting for nearly 10pc of the country's total LNG imports. Japan has committed to continuing strengthening energy security and co-operation with the US, as well as South Korea, leveraging US LNG along with other energy sources and technologies in a mutually beneficial manner, the countries said in a joint statement after the trilateral foreign ministers' meeting in Brussels on 3 April, just after Trump announced the baseline 10pc taxes on 2 April. Ishiba had already mentioned the idea of ramping up purchases of US LNG, as well as ethanol, ammonia and other resources, when he visited Trump in Washington in February . But he emphasised the importance of stable and reasonable prices for such LNG imports. Alaska LNG has made little progress in recent years and is yet to secure any offtake agreements. But it has drawn interest, after Trump devoted one of his first executive orders to the development of Alaskan energy. South Korea's energy minister expressed the country's interest in the project during a visit in late March , while Taiwan's state-owned CPC signed an initial agreement to invest in and purchase LNG from the project, according to Taiwan's Ministry of Economic Affairs . Auto deal But it remains unclear if a possible purchase of Alaska LNG alone would satisfy Washington and help reduce tariffs. The Trump administration has expressed strong dissatisfaction against Japanese non-tariff barriers on US car deliveries. "US automakers face a variety of non-tariff barriers that impede access to the Japanese and Korean automotive markets, including non-acceptance of certain US standards, duplicative testing and certification requirements, and transparency issues", the US government said on 2 April. Japan imported around 23,000 units of passenger vehicles from the US in 2023, according to the industry group Japan Automobile Importers Association, and this is near one-tenth of all deliveries from European nations. Tokyo appears to be struggling to find breakthrough solutions on this decades-long bilateral economic issue. There must be a variety of reasons on why American cars are not coming into the Japanese market, while Japanese cars are selling well in the US, said the Japanese minister for trade and industry Yoji Muto on 8 April. "We still need more time to figure that out." Ishiba on 8 April appointed the minister of state for Economic and Fiscal Policy, Ryosei Akazawa, as a negotiator for the trade talks with the US government. By Motoko Hasegawa and Yusuke Maekawa Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

News

US faults EU carbon fee during tariff fight


08/04/25
News
08/04/25

US faults EU carbon fee during tariff fight

Washington, 8 April (Argus) — President Donald Trump's administration is citing the EU's upcoming tariff on carbon-intensive imports as one of the "unfair trade practices" that justified a tariff response. Trump has said a 20pc tariff on most EU goods and a higher tariff on many other key trading partners — set to take effect after midnight — are "reciprocal" to other countries' tariffs and non-tariff barriers, even though those tariffs are calculated based on each country's trade deficits and imports with the US. Trump has yet to even identify which trade policies he wants other countries to change before he would withdraw tariffs his administration expects will raise $600bn/yr in new revenue. But the US Trade Representative's office, in a social media post on Monday made in "honor" of Trump's tariffs, identified the EU's Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) — which will collect a carbon-based levy on imports such as steel, cement and fertilizer — as one of the examples of what it sees as an unfair trading practice. The Trump administration estimates $4.7bn/yr of US exports would be affected by the CBAM, which is set to take effect in 2026. "These EU regulations undermine fair competition, penalizing US companies while providing advantages to EU-based competitors," the US Trade Representative's office wrote in a series of posts on Tuesday that also criticized India and Thailand for imposing import restrictions on ethanol produced in the US. White House officials say more than 70 countries have approached the administration seeking deals on the tariffs since they were announced nearly a week ago. But with just hours before the tariffs take effect, Trump has yet to announce any definitive agreements to withdraw the tariffs. Instead, he has rejected offers from countries to zero out some of their tariffs. European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen on Monday said the EU was "ready to negotiate" on tariffs, and would zero out its tariffs on industrial imports if the US agreed to do the same. But Trump on Monday said that offer was not enough. "We have a deficit with the European Union of $350bn, and it's gonna disappear fast," Trump said. "One of the ways that that can disappear easily and quickly is they're gonna have to buy our energy from us." Today, Trump said he had a "great call" with South Korea's acting president Han Duck-soo that created the "probability of a great DEAL for both countries." Trump cited a potential agreement that might include large-scale purchases of US LNG and investments tied to the 20mn t/yr Alaska LNG export project. Trump and his cabinet believe the tariffs will align with a goal to achieve "energy dominance" and increase the amount of US energy exported abroad. "At the end of the day, we're going to have growing American exports and reindustrialize the country," US energy secretary Chris Wright said today during an interview on CNBC. Trump's tariffs have already caused a selloff in equities and, according to many analysts on Wall Street, a higher likelihood of a recession. Oil prices have dropped because of a "sudden change in the economic outlook, whereas everyone just honestly 10 days ago was expecting modest but steady positive growth in the US", non-profit group Center for Strategic and International Studies' senior fellow Clayton Seigle said today. Republicans have largely backed Trump in his imposition of tariffs, with the hope the tariffs will be lifted as part of trade negotiations. But some Republicans have started criticizing the rationale for the tariff policy. "Whose throat do I get to choke if this proves to be wrong?" US senator Thom Tillis (R-North Carolina) said in a hearing today with the US trade representative Jamieson Greer. By Chris Knight Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

News

US tariffs set to rise despite Trump talk of deals


08/04/25
News
08/04/25

US tariffs set to rise despite Trump talk of deals

Washington, 8 April (Argus) — Punitive taxes on imports from key US trading partners are set to rise on Wednesday despite President Donald Trump's claims of multiple trade deals in the making. Trump's 10pc baseline tariff on imports nearly every foreign country already went into effect on 5 April. The higher, "reciprocal" taxes will go into effect as scheduled, at 12:01am ET on 9 April, US trade representative Jamieson Greer told the Senate Finance Committee today. Trump, via his social media platform, said today he discussed a possible trade deal with South Korea and added that "we are likewise dealing with many other countries, all of whom want to make a deal with the United States." Greer told the Senate panel that more than 50 countries have reached out to the US to negotiate trade deals. Treasury secretary Scott Bessent separately claimed that more than 70 countries are interested in a trade deal with the US. Both Democratic and Republican senators on the Senate panel pressed Greer to explain whether negotiations would result in lowering tariff rates. But Greer outlined a process that he expects would lower foreign countries' tariff rates on US products and commit them to buy more US energy and other products. "There are things we can do with our trading partners, things that aren't always purely in the trade sector," Greer said. Possible subjects for trade negotiations could involve "export controls alignment or investment screening, alignment on energy, making sure that our partners are tied up with us with respect to LNG and other resources, as opposed to being dependent on other countries." The US is primarily looking to reduce trade deficits with those countries, Greer said. "What we have told them is, 'if you have a better idea to achieve reciprocity and to get our trade deficit down, we want to talk to you.'" Trump, in turn, suggested that a possible deal with South Korea could include "large scale purchase of US LNG" and "their joint venture in an Alaska Pipeline". The latter is a reference to the planned 20mn t/yr Alaska LNG project, which would be the most expensive liquefaction facilities ever built in the US if it becomes a reality. Trump has talked up potential support for Alaska LNG from Japan, South Korea and Taiwan for months. But the three countries still became subject to high tariffs. By Haik Gugarats Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Generic Hero Banner

Business intelligence reports

Get concise, trustworthy and unbiased analysis of the latest trends and developments in oil and energy markets. These reports are specially created for decision makers who don’t have time to track markets day-by-day, minute-by-minute.

Learn more