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UK to push for more ambitious NDCs ahead of Cop 27

  • Market: Coal, Emissions
  • 07/12/21

The UK will continue to push for countries to publish more ambitious national determined contributions (NDCs) before the next Cop 27 UN climate summit, Cop president Alok Sharma said.

The Cop 26 summit agreed that countries should return with enhanced NDCs next year, rather than waiting the usual five years for them to be renewed, as current plans mean that global temperatures will still rise by more than the target of 1.5C by the end of the century from pre-industrial levels.

At the beginning of Cop 26, 153 countries had published enhanced NDCs and others made announcements but have not officially reported them to the UN's Framework Convention on Climate Change.

"We are going to have to work very hard in partnership with other countries on this," Sharma told the UK parliament's environmental audit committee today. "The way that we delivered Cop 26 was not as a solo effort from the UK. We worked with other like-minded partners around the world and we will continue to do that. We are going to hold countries to account on those particular commitments that have been made," Sharma said.

Sharma remains the Cop president until November 2022, when Egypt assumes the presidency ahead of the Cop 27 summit in Sharm El Sheikh, but will co-ordinate closely with the incoming president. Sharma also met with the German government last week, which is taking over the G7 presidency from the UK. Indonesia will take over the G20 presidency and he expects to work closely with the country's representatives.

Sharma also plans to make bilateral visits to some G20 countries to further discuss their NDCs next year. He said the agreements made at Cop 26 regarding transparency and standardised metrics for reporting emissions will help to hold all parties to account and represents "significant" progress.

The UK government has not yet confirmed the amount of resources that will be dedicated to overseeing the ongoing negotiations. Sharma said the Cop unit needs around 140-150 staff for the next year.


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02/05/25

Australia's Coalition eyes power, resource funding cuts

Australia's Coalition eyes power, resource funding cuts

Sydney, 2 May (Argus) — Australia's federal Coalition opposition has announced it will cut key energy rebates and resource sector subsidies, if elected on 3 May, to reduce forecast future budget deficits. The Peter Dutton-led opposition will cut programs, including the Labor government's A$20bn ($12.8bn) Rewiring the Nation transmission plan, and the A$15bn National Reconstruction Fund aimed at underwriting green manufacturing using domestic minerals. It will also unwind electric vehicle tax concessions to save A$3.2bn, and cancel planned production tax credits for critical minerals processing and green hydrogen estimated to cost A$14.7bn. Combined savings measures will improve the budget's position by A$13.9bn over the four years to 2028-29, the Coalition said on 1 May, cutting debt by A$40bn during the same timeframe. The announcement comes as opinion polls show Australia's next federal government is likely to force one of the two major parties into minority, after a campaign where cost-of-living relief promises have trumped economic reform policy. The centre-left Labor party is more likely than the conservative Coalition to form government at the 3 May poll. It holds a thin majority of just three seats in parliament's main chamber, the House of Representatives, meaning a swing against it would force it to deal with minor parties such as the Greens and independent groupings. Promising a stable government, as Australia emerged from Covid-19, Labor had benefited from a resources boom as Russia's invasion of Ukraine led LNG and coal receipts to skyrocket and China's emergence from lockdowns revitalised its demand for iron ore, which jointly form the nation's main commodity exports. But as markets adjust to a period of protectionist trade policy and predictions of a slowdown in global growth abound, economists have criticised the major parties' reluctance to embrace major reform on areas such as taxation, while continuing to spend at elevated levels post-pandemic. Australia's resource and energy commodity exports are forecast to fall to A$387bn in the fiscal year to 30 June 2025 from A$415bn in 2023–24. The Office of the Chief Economist is predicting further falls over the next five years, reaching A$343bn in 2029-30, lowering expected government revenue from company tax and royalties. Gas The Coalition has pledged a domestic reservation scheme for the east coast, forcing 50-100PJ (1.34bn-2.68bn m³/yr) into the grid by penalising spot LNG cargoes. Australia's upstream lobby has opposed this, but rapidly declining reserves offshore Victoria state mean gas may need to be imported to the nation's south, depending on the success of electrification efforts and an uncertain timeline for coal-fired power retirements. Labor has resisted such further gas interventions , but it is unclear how it will reverse a trend of rising gas prices and diminishing domestic supply, despite releasing a future gas plan last year. The party is promising 82pc renewables nationally by 2030, meaning it will have to nearly double the 2025 year-to-date figure of 42pc. This could require 15GW of gas-fired capacity by 2050 to firm the grid. On environmental policy, narrowing polls mean Labor's likely partners in government could be the anti-fossil fuel Greens and climate-focused independents — just some of the present crossbench of 16 out of a parliament of 151. The crossbench may drive a climate trigger requirement in any changes to environmental assessments, which could rule out new or brownfield coal and gas projects. Coal has been conspicuously absent from policy debates, but Labor has criticised the Coalition's nuclear energy policy as expensive and unproven, while the Coalition has said Labor's renewables-led grid would be unstable and costly because of new transmission requirements. The impact of the US tariff shock that dominated opening days of the month-long election campaign remains unclear. Unlike Canada, Australia is yet to be directly targeted by US president Trump's rhetoric on trade balances and barriers. But the global unease that has set in could assist Labor's prime minister Anthony Albanese, as he presents an image of continuity in an uncertain world economy. Australia's main exposure to Trump tariffs is via China, its largest trading partner and destination for about 35pc of exports, including metal concentrates, ores, coal and LNG. A downturn in the world's largest manufacturer would spell difficult times ahead for Australia, as it grapples with balancing its budget in a normalising commodity market. By Tom Major Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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India extends directive to lift coal-fired generation


02/05/25
News
02/05/25

India extends directive to lift coal-fired generation

Singapore, 2 May (Argus) — India's power ministry has extended its directive requiring imported coal-fired utilities to boost generation by two months until 30 June, a move that could support demand for seaborne coal over the peak summer period. The directive covers imported coal-fired plants with a combined capacity of 17.5GW and was previously set to expire on 30 April. The decision could support India's coal imports, which have remained lacklustre so far in 2025. India imported 38.29mn t of thermal coal in January-March, down from 41.87mn t a year earlier, according to data from shipbroker Interocean. Imports may have remained under pressure in April, with India's seaborne thermal coal receipts estimated at 15.77mn t for the month, down from 15.84mn t a year earlier, according to trade analytics platform Kpler. India's coal-fired generation remained above the historical average in April in line with the uptick in power demand, although actual coal burn was down on the month and year. India's coal-fired generation — which meets most of its power requirements — stood at 113.48 TWh in April, down from 116.58 TWh a year earlier and 117.95 TWh a month earlier, according to data from the Central Electricity Authority (CEA). The extension of the order appears to be a pre-emptive measure by the authorities to ensure imported coal-fired utilities are well stocked to meet any uptick in power demand. The country is currently sitting on a surplus of domestic coal, with elevated inventory at its utilities. Delhi has been proactively directing utilities to boost output since mid-2022 to cater for seasonal surges in power demand. Combined coal inventories at Indian power plants stood at 56.69mn t as of 30 April, up from 47.92mn t a year earlier, but down from 58.11mn t as of 31 March, CEA data show. Inventories at state-controlled Coal India (CIL) also remained high, according to market participants. By Saurabh Chaturvedi Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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US bill would extend expired biofuel credits


01/05/25
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01/05/25

US bill would extend expired biofuel credits

New York, 1 May (Argus) — Legislation soon to be introduced in the US House would extend expired biofuel incentives through 2026, potentially providing a reprieve to refiners that have curbed production this year because of policy uncertainty. The bill, which will be sponsored by US representative Mike Carey (R-Ohio) and some other Republicans on the powerful House Ways and Means Committee, according to a person familiar, could be introduced as soon as today. It would prolong both the long-running $1/USG for blenders of biomass-based diesel and a separate incentive that offers up to $1.01/USG for producers of cellulosic ethanol. The credits expired at the end of last year but under the proposal would be extended through both 2025 and 2026. The incentives would run alongside the Inflation Reduction Act's new "45Z" credit for clean fuel producers, which offers a sliding scale of benefits based on carbon intensity, though the bill would prevent double claiming of credits, according to bill text shared with Argus . The 45Z credit is less generous across the board to road fuels — offering $1/USG only for carbon-neutral fuels and much less for crop-based diesels — and is still in need of final rules after President Joe Biden's administration issued only preliminary guidance around qualifying. The proposal then would effectively offer a more generous alternative through 2026 for biodiesel, renewable diesel, and cellulosic ethanol but not for other fuels that can claim the technology-neutral 45Z incentive. That could upend the economics of renewable fuel production. Vegetable oil-based diesels for instance could claim the blenders credit and earn more than aviation fuels that draw from the same feedstocks. According to Argus Consulting estimates, aviation fuels derived from wastes like distillers corn oil and domestic used cooking should still earn more than $1/USG this year, conversely, since 45Z is more generous to aviation fuels. Extending the biodiesel blenders credit would also allow foreign fuel imports to again claim federal subsidies, a boost for Finnish refiner Neste and the ailing Canadian biofuel startup Braya Renewable Fuels but a controversial provision for US refiners and feedstock suppliers. The 45Z incentive can only be claimed by US producers. The blenders incentive is also popular among fuel marketer groups, which have warned that shifting subsidies to producers could up fuel costs. The proposal adds to a contentious debate taking place across the biofuel value chain about what the future of clean fuel incentives should look like. Some industry groups see a wholesale reversion to preexisting biofuel credits — or even a temporary period where various partly overlapping incentives coexist — as a tough sell to cost-concerned lawmakers and have instead pushed for revamping 45Z. A proposal last month backed by some farm groups would keep the 45Z incentive but ban foreign feedstocks and adjust carbon intensity modeling to benefit crops. Republicans could keep, modify, extend, or repeal the 45Z incentive as part of negotiations around a larger tax bill this year. But the caucus is still negotiating how much to reduce the federal budget deficit and what to do with Inflation Reduction Act incentives that have spurred clean energy projects in conservative districts. Uncertainty about the future of biofuel policy and sharply lower margins to start 2025 have led to a recently pronounced drop in biodiesel and renewable diesel production . President Donald Trump's administration is working on new biofuel blend mandates, which could be proposed in the coming weeks, but has said little about its plans for biofuel tax policy. By Cole Martin Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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US factory activity contracts for 2nd month in April


01/05/25
News
01/05/25

US factory activity contracts for 2nd month in April

Houston, 1 May (Argus) — US manufacturing activity contracted in April for a second month, as output and new orders slowed on tariff policy uncertainty, while price gains accelerated. The Institute for Supply Management's manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) fell to 48.7 in April, down from 49 in March and the lowest since last November. The threshold between contraction and expansion is 50. The two-month contraction in manufacturing activity follows a two-month expansion preceded by 26 consecutive months of contraction. ISM's services PMI, a separate report that tracks the biggest part of the economy, showed nine months of expansion through March. "Demand and production retreated and de-staffing continued, as panelists' companies responded to an unknown economic environment," ISM said Thursday. "Prices growth accelerated slightly due to tariffs, causing new-order placement backlogs, supplier delivery slowdowns and manufacturing inventory growth." The manufacturing data follows a report Wednesday that showed the US economy contracted at an annualized 0.3pc pace in the first quarter as businesses boosted imports and stocked up on goods ahead of US import tariffs. The ISM's new-orders index came in at 47.2, higher than 45.2 in March but showing contraction for a third month. The production index fell to 44, showing a deepening contraction from 48.3 in the prior month. Employment rose by 1.8 points to 46.5, showing a slowing contraction. New export orders contracted faster at 43.1 in April, while imports entered contraction at 47.1 after barely growing, at 50.1, the prior month. The prices index rose to 69.8, up from 69.4 the prior month and signaling quickening expansion. The inventories index fell by 2.6 points to 50.8, marking a second month of expansion after six months of contraction. By Bob Willis Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Indonesia's coal power phase-out hinges on funding


01/05/25
News
01/05/25

Indonesia's coal power phase-out hinges on funding

Manila, 1 May (Argus) — Indonesia's accelerated coal-fired power phase-out plan hinges on private-sector and international partners financial support, the country's energy ministry said, after issuing further guidance last month. Indonesian energy ministry ESDM published a ministerial regulation in early April outlining the criteria and processes for the early retirement of coal-fired power plants. But the plan will not be carried out if there is no clarity over funding for its energy transition efforts, in which case Jakarta will continue to prioritise domestic energy production, including through fossil-based sources, ESDM said this week. The Indonesian government will not use its state budget or funds from state-owned utility PLN to fund the early retirement of coal-fired plants, ESDM said. The new regulation details the evaluation processes for retiring coal-fired plants early, and emphasises the need for financial support from private-sector or international partners to achieve an accelerated phase out. Policy makers will evaluate the impact of a plant's retirement on the country's electricity grid, power supply and electricity tariffs, among other factors, when considering its phase out, ESDM said. It will also take into account aspects of the Just Energy Transition Partnership (JETP) climate financing pact signed with rich nations in 2022, such as the livelihood of employees affected by the phase-out, as well as a plant's capacity, age, utilisation, greenhouse gas emissions and economic value. The availability of foreign and domestic technological support will also be considered; according to ESDM. US president Donald Trump's decision to withdraw the US from the JETP raised concerns earlier this year on whether Indonesia could stick to its energy transition policies, but the country recently secured $60mn in JETP funding to develop a solar project . State-owned utility PLN will be tasked with studying the technical, legal, commercial and financial aspects of decommissioning plants that are put forward for early retirement, including funding sources. It will have to submit a report to the ministry no later than six months from the date a plant is identified for decommissioning, ESDM said. The share of renewables in Indonesia's power mix is expected to rise to around 21pc by 2030 and 41pc by 2040, according to think-tank Ember. By Antonio delos Reyes Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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