Viewpoint: Gasoline to surprise again in 2022 on upside
European road fuel demand should bounce back further in 2022 as the effects of the pandemic on mobility recede, and permanent structural shifts in production and tight inventories going into the spring could all combine to produce a bumper year.
Gasoline outperformed in 2021 as road fuel demand returned or exceeded pre-Covid levels earlier than expected, and it benefited from the shift to private vehicles over public transport when cases flared up again. Pump prices reached record highs in Europe and the US in the autumn and, in a boon for producers, so did cracks. Eurobob oxy gasoline's notional premium to North Sea Dated averaged $9.45/bl in 2021, the widest since 2017.
For the first time ever, gasoline outperformed other transport fuels — averaging a $1.07/bl premium to diesel and $2.91/bl above jet fuel in 2021.
A prompt supply crunch caused by a lack of available barges in the Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp (ARA) trading hub explains the sharp surge in gasoline prices and cracks in autumn 2021, and is emblematic of issues caused by global supply chain constrictions and high energy costs. Barge freight rates in ARA rose more than four-fold in the year, and the cost of running a refinery increased exponentially after natural gas prices hit record highs.
That means supply will remain constrained into this year, in addition to near 900,000 b/d of crude distillation capacity permanently closed or earmarked for closure since the start of the pandemic.
At the same time demand should continue its solid recovery. Gasoline consumption exceeded pre-Covid levels in many European countries in summer 2021, with international travel still restricted. "When Covid cases rose sharply again, gasoline demand benefited from the preference of personal vehicles over public transport.
Firm export demand was a significant price driver, and will play a major role again in 2022. Europe's position as primary supplier of gasoline to west Africa is under no threat, and a record 16.7mn t went to the region between January and November 2021, up by 36pc from the first 11 months of 2019. Around 16mn t of European gasoline went to the US in the same time, up by 13pc from 2019.
US supply should remain tight into 2022 for similar reasons as Europe. Around 1mn b/d of US refining capacity has been closed due to Covid-19, while gasoline demand returned to pre-Covid levels as early as May and set new records through the summer including breaching 10mn b/d for the first time ever.
Demand in the US, the world's largest gasoline market, shows no sign of slowing, and that has helped trim inventories to multi-year lows. Most recent EIA stock data show a deficit of 9pc on two years ago on the US Atlantic coast— where most European exports end up — having fallen to seven-year lows in November.
Lower overall output leaves the US vulnerable to supply shocks, such as last year's arctic storm or another hurricane in the US Gulf coast.
Supply is also relatively tight in Asia-Pacific, and although eastbound flows will remain on the periphery for European suppliers, a shortfall of supply from China means more demand for European gasoline from its regular markets. The pandemic slowed the rapid capacity expansion of the last decade in the Mideast Gulf and China, with the latter expected to keep exports tight into 2022 because of lower domestic runs and sharply reduced quotas.
Further ahead, the energy transition will play a major role in trimming traditional road fuel demand. For the first time, new battery or hybrid-battery cars outsold fossil fuel engines in 2021, but "peak road fuel demand" is some way off. The roll out of E10 gasoline in the UK will probably be repeated in Ireland in 2022, which may tip the balance in favour of non-oxy Eurobob as the fuel of choice for blending more bioethanol.
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Australia's Qantas records higher fuel costs in 2023-24
Australia's Qantas records higher fuel costs in 2023-24
Singapore, 30 August (Argus) — Australian airline Qantas Airways recorded a higher fuel bill in the 2023-24 fiscal year to 30 June, as more flights, sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) expenses and carbon offset programmes weighed on costs. Qantas saw its fuel costs rise by 17pc from a year earlier to A$5.32bn ($3.62bn) in 2023-24, according to the company's full-year financial results released on 29 August. The airline group's passenger carrying capacity was up by 21pc on the previous year, with growth in domestic and international capaicty. This saw the group's overall fuel consumption grow to 29mn bl (79,000 b/d), or 18pc up on the previous year. Qantas expects fuel costs in the first half of 2024-25 to remain stable from a year earlier at about A$2.7bn, including hedging and gross carbon costs, with the group forecasting to consume 15.6mn bl of fuel, including SAF. Qantas forecasts domestic group capacity to rise to 104pc of pre-Covid 19 pandemic capacity in the first half of 2024-25. Its international capacity guidance, excluding Jetstar Asia, is expected to rise by about 16pc from the previous year to achieve 102pc of pre-Covid levels in the first half. The group's passenger carrying capacity, measured by available seat kilometres (ASKs), was up on a year earlier by 21pc to 141mn ASK by 2023-24, although this was still about 93pc of pre-Covid levels. Qantas has agreements to offtake SAF, renewing its agreement to buy SAF for flights out of London Heathrow and doubling the size of its corporate customer SAF programme in 2023-24. But the group saw its 2023-24 profit fall, with underlying profit before tax down by 16pc on the previous year to A$2.08bn. By Cara Wong Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
India lifts curbs on use of sugarcane juice for ethanol
India lifts curbs on use of sugarcane juice for ethanol
Mumbai, 30 August (Argus) — The Indian government is allowing sugar mills and distilleries to use sugarcane juice and sugar syrup to produce ethanol during the November 2024-October 2025 supply year. The government in December last year halted the use of sugarcane juice and sugar syrup for ethanol production in the 2023-24 supply year, as insufficient rainfall in key growing regions led to a surge in domestic sugar prices and a shortage of the sweetener. Sugar mills and distilleries can also produce ethanol from B-heavy and C-heavy molasses. The food ministry's order added that it will, in co-ordination with the oil ministry, periodically review the diversion of sugar to ethanol production in relation to the production of sugar in the country to ensure the availability of sugar for domestic consumption throughout the year. The government also allowed the Food Corporation of India to sell rice to distilleries for ethanol production during August-October but capped the limit at 2.3mn t of rice. India had suspended supplies of excess rice to distilleries for ethanol production in July 2023 because of food availability and concerns about rising prices. Distilleries will be allowed to load rice during August-October subject to allocation of ethanol to the distilleries by oil marketing companies, the government order said. Of the total ethanol used for blending in gasoline in India, around 61pc comes from B-heavy molasses, 20pc from sugar syrup, 11pc from surplus rice, 6pc from damaged food grains and maize and 2pc from C-heavy molasses. India has a set a goal to increase ethanol blending in gasoline to 20pc by 2025, as part of efforts to reduce its dependence on crude imports. Ethanol blending in gasoline was 13.3pc during November 2023-July 2024 and 15.8pc during July 2024, oil ministry data show. Oil marketing companies buy ethanol from ethanol producers like sugar mills and distilleries to blend with gasoline. By Roshni Devi Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Sweden to up biofuel mandates again after slashing them
Sweden to up biofuel mandates again after slashing them
London, 28 August (Argus) — Sweden's government announced that the country will raise its greenhouse gas (GHG) reduction obligations to 10pc for gasoline and diesel from 6pc, with changes due to come into effect on 1 July next year according to Swedish bioenergy association Svebio. The country announced in May last year that it was planning to lower GHG reduction mandates for 2024-2026 to 6pc for both diesel and gasoline, from 30.5pc for diesel and 7.8pc for gasoline in 2023. The government at the time said this was because higher GHG reduction targets in Sweden, compared with the rest of the EU, were pushing diesel prices up at the pump. The biofuels industry in Sweden welcomed the new 10pc mandate, as it will support domestic demand for its fuels. The drop in Sweden's mandates to 6pc had a significant effect on domestic biofuels usage and wider biofuel prices in Europe, particularly hydrotreated vegetable oil (HVO). Because fatty acid methyl ester (Fame) biodiesel has a 7pc physical blend wall into diesel under the EU Fuel Quality Directive, Sweden relied on drop-in HVO to meet its high diesel mandates. As a result of the 2024 mandate cuts, HVO deliveries were down by 95pc on the year in June and total biofuels deliveries were down by 79pc in the same period, according to data from government data provider Statistics Sweden . Lower mandates in Sweden cut domestic HVO demand, redirecting supplies to the wider European market, pushing values down as a result. Prices for HVO Class II fob ARA range, made from used cooking oil, were down by $715.42/t year on year, or 31.5pc, on 27 August. Tomas Ekbom, programme director at Svebio, told Argus that Sweden's government understood it could not rely mainly on the electrification of the transport sector to meet targets and that biofuels had a larger role to play. He added that the government likely also considered that it would be too costly to pay for credits if, in the end, EU targets were missed. Sweden's government estimates that the country will meet its Effort Sharing Regulation commitments for 2030 — a binding emissions reduction target for domestic transport (excluding aviation), buildings, agriculture, small industry and waste of 50pc compared with 2005 levels — by implementing this new 10pc reduction obligation, as well as a new climate action plan. But the parliament previously abolished GHG reduction levels for 2027-2030, taking a wait and see approach. And ministers did not include any plans to scale up the mandated levels from 10pc. The re-cast Renewable Energy Directive requires a 14.5pc GHG reduction target, or 29pc share of renewables by energy content, for transport fuels by 2030. Sweden's new obligation will allow fuel suppliers to credit electricity from public charging stations towards meeting their emissions reduction obligations, but how this will work in practice remains unclear. Last year, battery electric vehicles were 5.75pc of Sweden's total passenger car fleet and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles were 5.37pc of the fleet, based on data from the EU's alternative fuels observatory. Sweden will also include a proposal in its 2025 budget to reduce fuel taxes to reduce impact on fuel prices at the pump. The gasoline tax will be reduced by 0.75 krona/litre ($0.07) next year while the diesel tax will be increased by 0.11 krona/litre ($0.01) — the EU minimum. By Simone Burgin Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
US, Italy, Germany miss goal to cut fossil fuel finance
US, Italy, Germany miss goal to cut fossil fuel finance
Edinburgh, 28 August (Argus) — Countries including the US, Italy and Germany continued to finance international fossil fuel projects last year despite committing to stop doing so by the end of 2022, according to a report by think-tank the International Institute for Sustainable Development (IISD) and civil society organisation Oil Change International. A total of 39 countries and development banks, including the US, Canada, Germany, the UK, France and Italy, promised to end international public finance for unabated fossil fuels by the end of 2022. The Glasgow pledge — the Clean Energy Transition Partnership (CETP) — signed on the sidelines of the UN Cop 26 climate talks has exemptions for "limited and clearly defined circumstances consistent with a 1.5°C warming limit and the goals of the Paris Agreement". The report found that the US invested $3.2bn in 10 overseas projects last year and its export-import bank approved $500mn for 300 oil and gas well in Bahrain. The US is "currently considering at least five fossil fuel megaprojects that are all steeped in controversy, including gas projects in Guyana, Papua New Guinea and Mozambique", the report said. The organisations said Switzerland approved five fossil fuel projects abroad last year for a total of $1.4bn, Italy and Germany approved $1bn each and Italy's export credit agency SACE provided $4.3bn for petrochemical projects. Italy's policy contains "numerous wide-ranging loopholes" that essentially allow SACE "to continue its fossil finance virtually unhindered", the organisations said. The report also pointed out that the Netherlands committed $321mn to an oil and gas project in Brazil's Santos basin. Environmental organisations had warned last year that energy security concerns would mean some countries including the US, Germany and Italy would miss the pledge made in Glasgow . But fossil fuel finance is decreasing even among signatories with policies that do not match the ambition of the CETP, according to the report. "A year after the deadline, most CETP signatories — including Canada, the UK, France and the European Investment Bank — have met their promise," IISD and Oil Change said. And the commitments have shifted billions away from fossil fuel investments towards clean energy. The report found that signatories have collectively reduced their international public finance for fossil fuel projects by around $10bn-15bn from a 2019-21 average to around $5.2bn in 2023. International investment in clean energy rose by 16pc in the same period to $21.3bn. "Signatories particularly need to adopt ambitious and quantitative targets for rapidly scaling up finance for clean energy, commit to a high standard for the quality of this financing, as well as prioritise financing for key enabling energy sub-sectors and for the countries that need it most," the organisations said. The report found that the largest recipients of the pledge signatories' finance were upper and upper-middle income countries rather than low-income nations. The top three recipients of the signatories' international public finance for clean energy last year were Spain, Germany and Poland, they said. By Caroline Varin Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
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