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Refiners integrate for renewables: Update

  • Market: Biofuels, Emissions
  • 03/03/22

Adds detail on ExxonMobil investment.

Petroleum refiners have committed billions of dollars to speed up expansions beyond the oil patch and into bean fields.

Oil major Chevron's $3.2bn acquisition of US biofuels company Renewable Energy Group (REG) disclosed this week tipped the scales on a new wave of investment rushing through the feedstocks sector. The rush to convert under-performing oil refining equipment to produce more lucrative renewable diesel for the US brings established energy traders into unfamiliar markets.

"It is an area that we do not — to be completely blunt, we do not have deep expertise," Chevron chief executive Mike Wirth said. "We have been moving into these markets, but REG brings decades of experience and people that relationships, insights, technical understanding that we simply do not have."

US refiners have plunged into renewable diesel production to balance federal environmental obligations, extend the life of less competitive equipment and capture state and federal incentives for the drop-in diesel fuel.

Refiners leverage assets already connected to power and logistics networks and their operating expertise. Valero, Phillips 66, Marathon Petroleum, BP, Chevron and HollyFrontier have already converted or partnered on facilities to produce renewable diesel in the US.

A federal blender's tax credit — slated to expire at the end of this year — and state low-carbon fuel standards (LCFS) along the west coast help make renewable diesel competitive with conventional supplies. But refiners comfortable wringing margins from a dizzying array of petroleum feedstocks must now enter global agricultural markets.

Few elected to do that alone.

The REG acquisition would roughly double Chevron's renewables feedstock access already bolstered in early February through a joint venture with agribusiness giant Bunge. Neste this week announced a $1bn investment in Marathon Petroleum's planned renewable diesel conversion in Martinez, California, which Neste says would make it the first company to produce the fuel in Asia, Europe and North America. Marathon previously created a soybean processing joint venture with US agribusiness ADM.

Valero partner Darling Ingredients has pursued a $1.1bn acquisition of fats and oils collector Valley Proteins to buttress supplies to their Diamond Green Diesel joint venture, the largest US producer of renewable diesel. ExxonMobil in late February acquired a 25pc stake in Global Clean Energy Holdings (GCEH), which plans to produce renewable diesel from camelina feedstock processed at a converted Bakersfield, California, refinery. The major also acquired a 33pc interest in a GCEH feedstock subsidiary.

US independent refiner CVR Energy expected its fertilizer business and farm belt operations to lead to a partnership with a feedstock supplier for renewable diesel plans in Oklahoma and Kansas. But not all refiners want to split projects. HollyFrontier said it had looked at about 20 proposed oilseed crush projects that lacked sufficient benefits for the vertical integration.

"We have not seen returns that are clearing any sort of hurdle, which is pushing us back toward just an outright lifting or an offtake agreement," HollyFrontier Renewables president Tom Creery said.

Farmers' market

The jostling will transform the flows of fats and oilseeds. LCFS markets prize used cooking oils and collected fats as low-carbon feedstocks. But the US collects nearly all of the available domestic supply, meaning there is little room to grow that feedstock alongside renewable diesel demand.

The fuel will instead shrink US soybean exports or even flip the US to a net importer, and draw opportunities for canola or other oils in as feedstocks, according to agribusiness firms.

"There is going to be a daisy chain effect that goes on, which, frankly, is actually supportive for the entire vegetable oil complex," ADM chief financial officer Ray Guy Young said.

Farmers will explore additional production options, including cover crops or varietals enhanced to boost oil potential, according to Bunge.

"I think it is going to take, kind of, everything to supply that industry," chief executive Greg Heckman says. "We think we are right in the bull's-eye of that."


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26/12/24

Viewpoint: Unified CO2 market remains in distance

Viewpoint: Unified CO2 market remains in distance

Houston, 26 December (Argus) — Washington state's carbon market enters 2025 on steadier ground than it stood on for much of the past year, but still faces hurdles before it is part of a larger North American market. Washington's cap-and-invest program has weathered a year of highs and lows between advancing its ambitions to link with the Western Climate Initiative and operating through much of the year under threat of repeal in the November state elections. The state Department of Ecology director Laura Watson began the state's quest to link with the WCI last year , as regulators looked to the larger, more liquid market to potentially temper the higher-than-expected prices over the first year of the market in 2023. Washington Carbon Allowances (WCAs) for December 2023 delivery surged as high as $70/t last year, according to Argus assessments. But the state has clinched several wins for its program this year. State lawmakers were able to pass a bill to smooth out several areas of potential incompatibility with the WCI earlier this year, along with California and Quebec agreeing to move forward into formal linkage talks in March . But a repeal effort, initiative 2117, seeking to remove the state's cap-and-invest program dampened prices and forward movement on linkage since January. WCAs for December 2024 delivery fell to the lowest price to date for the program at $30.25/t on 4 March, according to Argus assessments, as uncertainty over the future of the program quieted market participation. State voters backed the cap-and-invest program in November with 62pc against the repeal effort, but months of uncertainty has cost the state time and linkage progress as the WCI awaited the November results. Additionally, while Washington started its own linkage rulemaking in April to align the program with changes planned for the WCI, finishing it requires the joint market first finalize its own changes. The linkage logjam has left market participants feeling that the state's momentum is stalled for the moment, even as perception of the state's eventual joining remains a question of "when" not "if." Ecology says it remains in communication with the WCI members and is evaluating the impact of California's new rulemaking timeline. California has indicated over this year that it does not intend to focus fully on linkage until its current rulemaking is complete. Ecology estimates it will adopt its new rules in fall 2025, with the earliest the state could expect a linkage agreement in late 2025. Washington must still complete further steps required by state law before any linkage agreement can proceed, including an environmental justice assessment and a final evaluation of a potential joint market under criteria set by its Climate Commitment Act, along with public comment. California and Quebec must also conduct their own evaluations to comply with respective state and provincial laws. If this timing works out, Ecology would be part of joint auctions starting in 2026. Compounding the process is the potential threat posed by incoming president-elect Donald Trump, who is likely to try to reverse major environmental regulations and commitments. Trump sought ultimately unsuccessful litigation in his first administration to sever the link between Quebec and California in 2019. The administration pursued the case on the grounds that California's participation violated federal authority to establish trade and other agreements with foreign entities under Article I of the US Constitution, which sets out the role of the federal and state powers in commerce and agreements with foreign powers. Both California and Washington have undergone preparations in recent months to gird themselves for a legal fight with the incoming administration, and that may add further scrutiny to linkage for both states going forward, said Justin Johnson, a market expert with the International Emissions Trading Association. "I think that it will require them to be more vigilant about the process they use and making sure they dot their i's and cross their t's because I think that there will be some folks in the federal administration who would like to see that not happen," Johnson said. By Denise Cathey Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Viewpoint: California dairy fight spills into 2025


24/12/24
News
24/12/24

Viewpoint: California dairy fight spills into 2025

Houston, 24 December (Argus) — California must begin crafting dairy methane limits next year as pressure grows for regulators to change course. The California Air Resources Board (CARB) has committed to begin crafting regulations that could mandate the reduction of dairy methane as it locked in incentives for harvesting gas to fuel vehicles in the state. The combination has frustrated environmental groups and other opponents of a methane capture strategy they accuse of collateral damage. Now, tough new targets pitched to help balance the program's incentives could become the fall-out in a new lawsuit. State regulators have repeatedly said that the Low Carbon Fuel Standard (LCFS) is ill-suited to consider mostly off-road emissions from a sector that could pack up and move to another state to escape regulation. California's LCFS requires yearly reductions of transportation fuel carbon intensity. Higher-carbon fuels that exceed the annual limits incur deficits that suppliers must offset with credits generated from the distribution to the state of approved, lower-carbon alternatives. Regulators extended participation in the program to dairy methane in 2017. Dairies may register to use manure digesters to capture methane that suppliers may process into pipeline-quality natural gas. This gas may then be attributed to compressed natural gas vehicles in California, so long as participants can show a path for approved supplies between the dairy and the customer. California only issues credits for methane cuts beyond other existing requirements. Regulators began mandating methane reductions from landfills more than a decade ago and in 2016 set similar requirements for wastewater treatment plants. But while lawmakers set a goal for in-state dairies to reduce methane emissions by 40pc from 2030 levels, regulators could not even consider rulemakings mandating such reductions until 2024. CARB made no move to directly regulate those emissions at their first opportunity, as staff grappled with amendments to the agency's LCFS and cap-and-trade programs. That has meant that dairies continue to receive credit for all of the methane they capture, generating deep, carbon-reducing scores under the LCFS and outsized credit production relative to the fuel they replace. Dairy methane harvesting generated 16pc of all new credits generated in 2023, compared with biodiesel's 6pc. Dairy methane replaced just 38pc of the diesel equivalent gallons that biodiesel did over the same period. The incentive has exasperated environmental and community groups, who see LCFS credits as encouraging larger operations with more consequences for local air and water quality. Dairies warn that costly methane capture systems could not be affordable otherwise. Adding to the expense of operating in California would cause more operations to leave the state. California dairies make up about two thirds of suppliers registered under the program. Dairy supporters successfully delayed proposed legislative requirements in 2023. CARB staff in May 2024 declined a petition seeking a faster approach to dairy regulation . Staff committed to take up a rulemaking considering the best way to address dairy methane reduction in 2025. Before that, final revisions to the LCFS approved in November included guarantees for dairy methane crediting. Projects that break ground by the end of this decade would remain eligible for up to 30 years of LCFS credit generation, compared with just 10 years for projects after 2029. Limits on the scope of book-and-claim participation for out-of-state projects would wait until well into the next decade. Staff said it was necessary to ensure continued investment in methane reduction. The inclusion immediately frustrated critics of the renewable natural gas policy, including board member Diane Tarkvarian, who sought to have the changes struck and was one of two votes ultimately against the LCFS revisions. Environmental groups have now sued , invoking violations that effectively froze the LCFS for years of court review. Regulators and lawmakers working to transition the state to cleaner air and lower-emissions vehicles will have to tread carefully in 2025. By Elliott Blackburn Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Viewpoint: Ethanol producers face higher costs in 2025


24/12/24
News
24/12/24

Viewpoint: Ethanol producers face higher costs in 2025

London, 24 December (Argus) — European ethanol producers may face rising output costs in 2025 as a poorer harvest season will push feedstock prices up, while other factors such as greenhouse gas (GHG) emission values could affect the price of finished products. Unfavourable weather conditions have led to a poor 2024-25 harvest, particularly for wheat. In Ukraine, Europe's largest wheat exporter excluding Russia, Argus forecasts wheat production will drop to 22.3mn t during 2024-25 , down from a five-year average of 24.7mn t. Corn supply from the country for 2024-25 is projected to fall to 22.9mn t, down from 31.5mn t in the previous season, according to Argus data. France — Europe's largest producer of ethanol — has cut its wheat production outlook for 2024-25 because of wet weather. And rainfall in other parts of Europe has affected corn toxin levels, potentially leading to poorer quality ethanol. This will likely weigh on ethanol output in 2025 as it will strain feedstock supplies, push production costs up and squeeze margins for producers. Nuts 2 It comes as markets are still waiting for an update on level 2 in the nomenclature of territorial units for statistics greenhouse gas (GHG) emission values — the so called Nuts 2 values. To determine the GHG emissions from growing crops in the EU, the bloc's Renewable Energy Directive (RED) allows the use of typical units that represent the average GHG value in a specific area. On the back of the implementation of the recast of RED (RED II), the European Commission requested an update of the Nuts 2 GHG values. Member states have to prepare new crop reports to be assessed by the commission. But reports have been slow to emerge, while those that have been submitted face a lengthy review. Producers rely on GHG values to calculate the GHG savings of end-products, but default RED values currently in place are significantly lower than the typical GHG values from Nuts 2. While this is unlikely to have long-term effects beyond 2025, in the current context finding values that meet market participants' criteria has been difficult for some, which may support prices. Rising demand Demand for waste-based and ethanol with higher GHG savings should increase in 2025 as a result of policy changes, after lower renewable fuel ticket prices in key European markets kept buying interest in check in 2024. Tickets are generated by companies supplying biofuels for transport. They are tradeable and can help obligated parties meet renewables mandates. The decline in prices for GHG tickets in Germany — the main demand centre for minimum 90pc GHG savings ethanol — weighed on ethanol consumption in 2024, squeezing the differential to product with lower GHG savings. The premium averaged around €17/m³ ($17.7/m³) from 1 January-1 December 2024, down from around €43/m³ during the same period in 2023. But an increase in Germany's GHG quota in 2025, coupled with Germany's decision to pause the use of GHG certificates carried forward from previous compliance years towards the 2025 and 2026 blending mandate, should increase physical blending and lift premiums for ethanol with high GHG savings, according to market participants. Meanwhile, the Netherlands' ministry of infrastructure and water management's plan to reduce the amount of Dutch tickets that obligated companies will be able to carry forward to 2025 to 10pc from 25pc may have little effect on Dutch double-counting ethanol premiums in 2025. Participants expect steady premiums, despite slightly higher overall blending targets. The Argus double-counting ethanol fob ARA premium to crop-based ethanol fob ARA averaged €193/m³ from 1 February-1 December 2024. Biomethanol slows Lower ticket prices in the UK have kept a lid on demand for alternative waste-based gasoline blendstock biomethanol. The Argus cif UK biomethanol price averaged $1,089/t from 1 Jauary-1 December, compared with $1,229/t during the same period of 2023. The European Commission's proposal to exclude automatic certification of biomethane and biomethane-based fuels, if relying on gas that has been transported through grids outside the EU, continues to slow negotiations for 2025 imports of biomethanol of US origin into the EU. But demand for biomethanol and e-methanol could be supported by growing interest from the maritime sector as shipowners seek to reduce emissions after the EU's FuelEU maritime regulation comes into effect. Shipping giant Maersk has signed several letters of intent for the procurement of biomethanol and e-methanol from producers such as Equinor , Proman and OCI Global . By Evelina Lungu Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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South Korea to invest $309bn in green finance by 2030


24/12/24
News
24/12/24

South Korea to invest $309bn in green finance by 2030

Singapore, 24 December (Argus) — South Korea plans to invest 450 trillion won ($309bn) in green finance by 2030, acting president and prime minister Han Duck-soo said on 23 December. The country is also "actively encouraging private investment by upgrading the Korean Green Taxonomy system", Han added. The taxonomy is technical legislation that classifies the industrial carbon and environmental footprint for investors. It aims to promote green finance and prevent ‘greenwashing', with the aim of achieving a sustainable circular economy. The most important issue for the industrial sector, which accounts for about 36pc of domestic emissions, is to transition to carbon neutrality, Han said. South Korea has an "export-driven economic structure with high external dependence", he said, which means international carbon barriers will significantly affect South Korea. This makes decarbonisation key to maintaining competitiveness, he added. South Korea is also responding to the climate crisis through technological innovation. The country's science ministry last week unveiled plans to invest almost W2.75 trillion to develop technology to respond to climate change in 2025. By Tng Yong Li Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Trump-Panama tiff highlights rising transit cost


24/12/24
News
24/12/24

Trump-Panama tiff highlights rising transit cost

New York, 23 December (Argus) — US president-elect Donald Trump's threat on Saturday to reclaim the Panama Canal for the US put a spotlight on rising costs this year and additional fees planned by the Panama Canal Authority (ACP) for 2025 in the ongoing fallout of a 2023 drought in Central America. Trump claimed that the US is the "number one user" of the Panama Canal, with "over 70pc of all transits heading to, or from, US ports" on 21 December. ACP data for ships destined for or departing from the US puts this percentage at 73pc in 2023 and 75.5pc in 2024 based on total tonnage of commodities moved through the canal. "This complete ‘rip-off' of our Country will immediately stop…" Trump said. The base transit tolls at the Panama Canal have been on the rise and are largely in line with those at the Suez Canal, but Panama Canal costs can be much higher for vessel operators that compete in auctions to enter the Central American passageway. The operator of a medium range (MR) tanker traveling laden through the Panama Canal would pay $279,564.87 in transit fees, while the operator of a laden very large gas carrier (VLGC) would pay $505,268.24 without accounting for reservation costs, ACP estimates. Suez Canal fees have also been on the rise , with MR tanker at $274,001 throughout 2024, while a VLGC operator would pay $487,562. But after last year's drought caused the ACP to temporarily limit transits, ACP required shippers to book transit reservations. Shippers unable to secure reservations via pre-booking often resort to the transit slot auction, where winning bids vary wildly. Pre-booked transit slots often quickly sell out to the containership and LPG vessel owners that dominate the top spots on the ACP's client list. Auction prices for the Neopanamax locks, which have a starting bid of $100,000 and handle large vessels like VLGCs, are at about $220,000, per Argus assessments. Auction prices for the Panamax locks, which have a starting bid of $55,000 and handle vessels like MR tankers, are around $75,000. The highest Neopanamax auction price was nearly $4mn, with the highest Panamax auction price at about half that level. In December 2023, 30pc of Panamax lock tanker transits were reserved via the auction system , according to ACP. The president-elect's criticism of the ACP's handling of Panama Canal fees comes as the administrators of the waterway bounce back from a severe drought throughout 2023. Freshwater levels in the manmade Gatun Lake that helps to feed the canal have recovered because of the return of the rainy season this year, but ACP has maintained its requirement that shippers wishing to transit have reserved transit slots. Prior to the drought, ACP maintained a first-come, first-serve basis for vessels without reservations. ACP ups reservation costs, adds fees for 2025 Starting in 2025, ACP is maintaining the auction system while also increasing pre-booking costs and adding other fees. ACP will raise transit reservation fees from $41,000 to $50,000 for Panamax lock transits for "Super" category vessels, including MR tankers. Neopanamax lock transit reservation fees will climb from $80,000 to $100,000 on 1 January. ACP announced a third transit option in late 2024 for vessel operators in the form of the "Last Minute Transit Reservation" (LMTR) fee to start 1 January 2025 alongside other new fees and higher existing reservation fees. ACP set the cost of the LMTR fee at about twice the starting bid of an auction , or $100,000 for Supers and $200,000 for Neopanamax, and will likely offer the LMTR fee to vessels that fail to secure a transit slot at auction. Furthermore, vessel operators that cancel within two days of their transit will be charged a fee at 2.5 times the transit reservation fee, described by the ACP as a surcharge to the existing cancellation fee, which ranges up to 100pc of the transit reservation fee depending on how close to the transit date that an operator cancels. This means that a Super vessel that cancels within two days of its transit date will receive the 2.5 times surcharge on top of the 100pc transit reservation cancellation fee and pay a total of $175,000. A Neopanamax vessel will pay a total of $350,000. "Vessels of war" should also vie for slots: ACP Trump also suggested that the ACP was charging the US Navy, alongside US corporations, "exorbitant prices and rates of passage" and that these fees were "unfair and injudicious". In March 2024, the ACP published an update on transit slot assignments for vessels of war, auxiliary vessels and other "government-owned" vessels encouraging their operators to participate in the transit system rather than waiting for the ACP to assign them a slot. "Vessels of war, auxiliary vessels, and other government-owned vessels are encouraged to obtain a booking slot through the available booking mechanisms in order to have their transit date guaranteed and minimize the possibility of delays," the ACP said. The ACP points out that these vessels of war are entitled to "expeditious transits" based on the Treaty Concerning Permanent Neutrality and Operation of the Canal and are technically not required to obtain a reservation to be considered for transit. Panama president Jose Raul Mulino on Sunday rejected Trump's threat to retake the canal , which has been under full control of the Central American country since 1999. The canal's rates are established in a public and transparent manner, taking into account market conditions, Mulino said. "Every square meter of the Panama Canal and its adjacent area is Panama's and will continue to be," Mulino said. "The sovereignty and independence of our country are non-negotiable." By Ross Griffith Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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