Generic Hero BannerGeneric Hero Banner
Latest market news

Falling LCFS credit price narrows RNG prospects

  • Market: Emissions, Natural gas
  • 20/05/22

Sliding prices may narrow development of one of last year's fastest-growing sources of California Low Carbon Fuel Standard (LCFS) credits.

Interlocking incentives led by the state's transportation fuel program spurred a nationwide build-out of projects to harvest methane from dairy cattle and swineherds over the past five years to produce more renewable natural gas (RNG).

But a surge in new credits helped cut LCFS prices by nearly half since January 2021. The drop may refocus investment in the largest, cheapest projects.

"Not every dairy farm is created equal," said Tyler Henn, Clean Energy Fuels vice president of business development and renewable natural gas investment.

California's LCFS program reduces the carbon intensity of transportation fuels through steadily falling annual limits on the amount of CO2 emitted during their production and use. Higher-carbon fuels that exceed the annual maximum incur deficits that suppliers must offset with credits generated by distributing approved lower-carbon fuels.

The lower or higher a fuel's score compared with the annual limit, the more credits or deficits it will generate. Dairy methane harvested and supplied to compressed natural gas vehicles has surged, in part due to scores that can place individual projects hundreds of points below the annual limit, many times lower than the nearest low-carbon competitor.

The gap translates to outsized credit generation. RNG made using dairy and other animal methane generated 2.1mn t of LCFS credits in 2021, or about 11pc of all new credits for the year. But dairy digester or animal waste gas made up just 1.5pc of alternative fuel volume in 2021 — displacing less than 2,800 b/d of equivalent diesel. Renewable diesel, which generated three times the credits of dairy and swine RNG last year, displaced more than 20 times the volume of petroleum diesel.

Spot credits have fallen to nearly $100/metric tonne from about $200/t at the beginning of last year. Supplies of new credits from renewable fuels outpaced the demand for higher-carbon gasoline and other fuel in 2021.

Dairy deluge

Thin margins and economies of scale have helped consolidate especially western US dairies to larger herds, according to the US Department of Agriculture (USDA).

Such concentration can reduce the investments needed to capture, process and connect harvested biomethane to US natural gas pipelines. It takes thousands of cows, either at a single large dairy or clustered across several operations, to produce sufficient gas. Projects need not always build new feeder pipelines — trucks can move compressed gas from some sites for injection.

State regulators need dairies and renewable natural gas infrastructure to capture more. California hosts about 20pc of all US dairies, and the operations produce the largest share of the state's methane emissions. California was on pace to meet just half of a targeted 40pc reduction in dairy methane emissions by 2030, according to California Air Resources Board estimated last year. The agency estimated that at least 160 additional dairies would need to use methane capture and processing to meet state goals.

California utilities also face renewable natural gas requirements. Southern California Gas expects RNG including landfill methane to make up 12pc of the gas it delivers to customers in 2030. Pacific Gas & Electric, California's largest utility, plans for RNG to make up 15pc of its gas by 2030, and already serves 22 CNG stations.

Competition for large or otherwise well-suited dairies soared with the combination of mandates and incentives, said Kevin Dobson, vice president of biomass for DTE Vantage.

"We are part of a big, $10bn company, and we are competing against, literally, people that work off of their kitchen table and drive a pickup truck into the farm," Dobson said.

But some dairies may lack manure management infrastructure, may lack easy access to offtake infrastructure, or need costlier equipment to produce the gas, Henn said.

The falling price environment raises the bar on project selection without halting it, Dobson said.

"You got to sharpen the pencil, you got to be a little bit more efficient," he said.

Reined in

Regulatory action could again curb the RNG boom. California limits methane emissions from landfills via another regulation. To generate LCFS credits, landfills must go beyond the cuts the state already requires. Gas captured from landfills averaged 8,260 b/d of diesel replacement but produced just 624,630 t of credits in 2021.

Regulators could still apply credit-slashing, landfill-style methane reductions to dairies. California's SB 1383, passed in 2016, authorized the state to regulate dairy methane as early as 2024. The state would need to consider dairy prices, the potential for dairies to move to other, less rigorous states, and assure that the regulations were "cost effective."

CARB has focused on incentives in communications about meeting dairy methane goals.

Environmental justice and animal welfare groups insist the incentives perpetuate large-scale agriculture that harms cattle, concentrates odors and wreaks other environmental damage. Some truck operators also question the long-term demand for the fuel.

The industry faces state mandates to electrify its fleets, with requirements that manufacturers making rising numbers of zero-emissions medium- and heavy-duty trucks available beginning in 2024. Major fleets that would otherwise prefer compressed natural gas were wary of heavy spending on those fuel systems, Western States Trucking Association head of regulatory affairs Joe Rajkovacz said.

"Those trucks are not even part of the future of what the California Air Resources Board wants to allow," Rajkovacz said.


Sharelinkedin-sharetwitter-sharefacebook-shareemail-share

Related news posts

Argus illuminates the markets by putting a lens on the areas that matter most to you. The market news and commentary we publish reveals vital insights that enable you to make stronger, well-informed decisions. Explore a selection of news stories related to this one.

News
26/03/25

Methane law limits EU’s pool of gas suppliers: Eurogas

Methane law limits EU’s pool of gas suppliers: Eurogas

London, 26 March (Argus) — The EU's Methane Emission Regulation (MER) creates "significant challenges for ensuring the flexibility, affordability and security of the EU's gas supply", industry association Eurogas told Argus . The legislation, adopted in 2024, aims to reduce methane emissions in the EU's energy sector and from energy imports. It requires that from 2027 new and renewed import contracts demonstrate that, at the point of production, the producing country has rules equivalent to those of the EU on how to monitor, report and verify information on methane emissions, while by 2028 methane intensity will have to be reported, Eurogas summarised. By 2030, imports will have to demonstrate compliance with the methane intensity threshold set by the European Commission. Eurogas "fully supports" the MER's overarching goals of reducing methane emissions and ensuring sustainable energy imports, with the law representing an "important step in aligning climate ambitions with global energy trade", it said. But the regulation's "timeline, uncertainties and extraterritorial implications for importers" create significant challenges for EU gas supply, a particularly acute problem as the EU seeks to replace all Russian gas imports by 2027, Eurogas said. "Multiple challenges" such as the equivalence of systems for monitoring, reporting and verification of methane emissions, as well as the tracking of the origin and emission intensity of deliveries need to be addressed, the association said, noting that "several of the EU's suppliers have expressed major concerns regarding the MER". Ultimately, by significantly increasing the administrative burden on both exporters and importers, disincentivising the signing of long-term contracts, the MER may result in firms turning more towards intra-EU spot trade on hubs, which is "subject to its volatility and supply risks", Eurogas said. Compliance with the regulation becomes particularly difficult in complex cases, such as in the US, where gas can be produced by one company, transported by another, liquefied by a third and imported by a fourth, making it extremely difficult to track emissions across the entire value chain. This problem is compounded if gas is bought on a liquid hub such as the US' Henry Hub, as is frequently the case with US LNG tolling contracts, because there is no system for verifying the origin of gas bought on a hub. From there, gas then frequently co-mingles in pipelines and at the liquefaction facility, further complicating tracing efforts. Unless you are an integrated company that controls the entire route to market, from production to liquefaction to export, it is "very difficult to comply", Eurogas said. Additionally, uncertainties regarding compliance with requirements yet to be defined, liability risks and potential penalties as high as up to 20pc of the importer's annual turnover, make it "difficult for parties to assess risks and move forward with agreements", Eurogas said. Without concrete solutions in place to deliver such tracking and monitoring, the regulation will "limit Europe's potential pool of buyers" and is already "preventing certain gas supply contracts from being signed". Eurogas therefore recommends adopting a "pragmatic approach regarding regulatory equivalence and origin tracking, to ensure compliance can be achieved without endangering Europe's security of supply and avoid distortion between supply routes". Another consideration is that the MER does not specify any direct EU funding to support the implementation of necessary measures. These measures will "inevitably involve significant investments" in advanced monitoring equipment, upgrades of existing facilities to minimise emissions and administrative efforts needed for reporting, the association said. When it comes to EU regulated entities, the regulation clarifies that costs associated with such investments shall be taken into account in tariff setting, subject to efficiency and transparency criteria. The US Department of Energy in October requested the "initiation of an equivalence determination process for importers/third countries" in order to "ensure the continued reliable and stable supply" of gas from the US to Europe. Earlier this month EU officials held technical talks with US firms to support "mutual understanding" on implementation, the European Commission said. The "real challenge" lies in the fact that the commission has not yet formulated the methodology for calculating methane emissions, so the compliance of existing third-party reporting "cannot be assessed", Eurogas said. It should be ensured that the detrimental impact on current gas trading practices and on security of supply "remains limited and to avoid market framework reforms in third countries". Any solution must work in existing pipeline and LNG gas markets and should be "efficient and effective with low cost to industry and consumers" to enable large-scale adoption by the market, the association said. To this end, Eurogas recommends that the possibility of relying on a voluntary certification system based on book-and-claim, or alternatively an adapted mass balancing approach, should be explored. Such an approach would imply accepting foreign interconnected gas systems as a single mass balancing at a global level, where the focus should be on the injections and withdrawals from such systems, rather than on the tracking of the molecules or certificates and their trade within such systems, the association noted. This approach would be necessary in order to minimise the impact on trading and avoid market framework reforms in producers' countries, it said. By Brendan A'Hearn Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Find out more
News

Energy security tops Rubio's Caribbean visit agenda


25/03/25
News
25/03/25

Energy security tops Rubio's Caribbean visit agenda

Houston, 25 March (Argus) — Energy security is the "big opportunity holistically" of US secretary of state Marco Rubio's planned visit this week to Jamaica, Guyana and Suriname, US special envoy for Latin America Mauricio Claver-Carone said. The island nations that are net importers of crude and other energy products have a chance to "turn the page" to improve energy security and reduce prices, the envoy said today in a state department briefing to press. The trip comes after the US said this week it would impose a 25pc discretionary tariff on imports from countries that buy Venezuelan crude. Several nations in the past received crude from their South American neighbor through its PetroCaribe aid program which is largely defunct, other than shipments to Cuba. Trinidad has also sought to develop cross-border natural gas fields with Venezuela to boost its flagging production, but the US announcement further complicates this plan. "Along with a lot of the challenges posed with Venezuela, we're deeply committed to working with Trinidad to figuring out how to re-energize ... those natural gas opportunities," Claver-Carone said. Booming oil producer Guyana in turn has faced a border dispute with Venezuela, and the US hopes to discuss "binding security cooperation" to solve this problem during Rubio's visit. Along with Guyana's neighbor Suriname, which hopes to launch offshore crude production by 2028, the outlook for the region to increase energy production could end its "huge Achilles' heel to its economic development and security," Claver-Carone added. Rubio will also discuss security, including improving conditions in Haiti, illegal migration and arms and drug trafficking during his visits on Wednesday and Thursday. By Carla Bass Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

News

Lula visits Japan to talk ethanol, Cop 30, beef


25/03/25
News
25/03/25

Lula visits Japan to talk ethanol, Cop 30, beef

Sao Paulo, 25 March (Argus) — Brazilian president Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva traveled to Japan on Tuesday in search of energy transition agreements and new market opportunities to improve trade relations between the countries. Bilateral Japan-Brazil trade fell to around $11bn in 2024, down from $17bn in 2011, the Brazilian government said. Brazil exported $730mn in goods to Japan in January-February, while importing $995mn from the Asian country in the period, according to Brazil trade ministry data. Exports dropped by almost 13.5pc from a year before in the two-month period, while imports grew by nearly 25pc. "Firstly, we have [a shortfall] to turn around," Lula said. Brazil will also ask Japan to join its growth acceleration plan . He is accompanied by 11 ministers and four members of congress, including senate president Davi Alcolumbre and lower house president Hugo Motta. Ethanol market Brazil aims to sell more ethanol to Japan, as the Asian country expects to increase its ethanol blend to 10pc from 3pc by 2030. "If Japan blends 10pc of ethanol into gasoline, it will be an extraordinary step not only for us to export to them but for them to be able to produce in Brazil," Lula said. Japan received 3.4pc of Brazil's ethanol exports in 2024, according to Brazil's development and trade ministry. Cop 30 and energy transition Lula's visit also seeks to attract investment in renewable energy, forest revamps and new donations to the Amazon Fund, as well as a "strong commitment" from Japan at the Cop 30 summit, to be held in Brazil later this year. Brazil aims to export clean fuels to generate power to Japan, as power imports account for more than 80pc of all Japanese power demand and "a large share of it comes from fossil sources," according to the Brazilian foreign relations ministry's Asia and Pacific secretary Eduardo Saboia. Brazilian and Japanese companies announced earlier this year plans to produce biomethane in Brazil . The renewable fuel would supply both countries. Brazil and Japan should also sign a deal to help recover the Cerrado biome, which is the second largest biome in Brazil and the second most endangered. It comprises of savanah grasslands and forest and makes up about 25pc of the nation's territory. The Cerrado lost 9.7mn hectares to wildfires in 2024, up by almost 92pc from 2023, according to environmental network MapBiomas' fire monitor researching program. Deforestation is one of Brazil's flagship issues for Cop 30 this year. The country has been pushing for forest protection and recovery initiatives as most of Brazil's past Cop pledges cannot be met with only its remaining forests. Japan and Brazil should talk about the Amazon Fund as well because Brazil "wants more", Saboia said. Japan was the first Asian country to donate to the fund with $14mn, which Saboia said was "too little." Where's the beef? Lula is also targeting opening Japan's beef market to Brazilian exports, as the Asian country imports over 70pc of all its beef. Lula met with members of the beef exporters association Abiec in his first day in Japan to discuss the matter. The bulk of Japan's beef imports — 80pc — come from the US, the Brazilian government said. Brazil does not currently export beef to Japan. "Brazil has the logistic capacity to increase exports and double beef exports every four years," transport ministry Renan Filho said. Brazil has been trying to enter Japan's beef market for over two decades. This time, Lula expects to achieve a technical visit from Japan to inspect Brazil's beef producing conditions as a first step toward accessing the Japanese market. Lula will depart to Vietnam on 28 March to debate a plan to turn the country into one of Brazil's strategic partners. Only Indonesia is considered a Brazil strategic partner in southeast Asia. By Maria Frazatto Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

News

Low snowpack could support Italian summer gas burn


25/03/25
News
25/03/25

Low snowpack could support Italian summer gas burn

London, 25 March (Argus) — Low snowpack and hydro reserves in Italy may increase demand for gas-fired plants this summer, in turn driving up power-sector gas burn on days when renewable output is weakest. Italian thermal-fired plants — mostly gas fired — accounted for 51pc of the country's generation mix in the summers of 2020-24, while run-of-river installations, pumped-storage plants and hydroelectric dams accounted for 19pc and solar, wind and other sources provided 31pc. Italian power-sector gas demand averaged 61.5mn m³/d. Italian gas-fired plants compete directly against programmable hydroelectric dams for both the day-ahead and ancillary power markets, so if overall electricity demand this summer remains steady on the year, gas-fired plants stand to gain a greater share of the generation mix than in years when hydro output was stronger. Unseasonably hot weather driving unusually high use of electric-powered air conditioning this summer would further increase scope for Italy's gas-fired plants to run. The estimated water content of snow on Italian mountains as of 8 March — the latest available data — was the lowest for that date since at least 2011 and was almost 57pc below the 2011-23 average for that time of year, according to Italian meteorological association Cima. Snowpack last year also dipped below the 2011-23 average in January-March before late-season precipitation pushed levels back above median levels in April-July. At the same time, water reserves at Italian hydroelectric dams have been well below historical averages this year. Reserves equal to 2.08TWh of power generation as of 17 March — the latest available data — were the third lowest for that date since 2015 and a full 10pc below the 10-year average for that time of year. Looking ahead, following months of predominantly dry weather punctuated by occasional bouts of heavy showers, long-term weather forecasts this week predicted slightly above-average rainfall over the rest of March and throughout April in Milan, around which much of the country's hydro capacity is located. And during that time, at least some rain was forecast to fall on all but one day, which would provide a far steadier influx of water into rivers. That said, Italian renewable generation capacity — particularly solar — is poised to continue rising in the coming months, likely boosting output from those technologies on the year in April-September and restricting demand for dispatchable gas-fired and hydroelectric dams alike. Total Italian PV solar capacity of 37.9GW at the start of March was 20pc higher on the year, suggesting potential for a proportional increase in generation of that type in April-September compared with summer 2024. Italian PV solar panels and on-site renewable installations at homes and businesses, the vast majority of which are solar-based, generated an average of 8GW each day in summer 2024, covering 26pc of all generation nationwide. By Ilenia Reale and Jeff Kuntz Gas and hydro output, hydro reserves GW, TWh Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

News

Wartsila to supply engines for Spanish LNG vessel


25/03/25
News
25/03/25

Wartsila to supply engines for Spanish LNG vessel

Sao Paulo, 25 March (Argus) — Finnish engineering firm Wartsila said it will supply three dual-fuelled engines for a new LNG bunkering vessel being built for Spanish operator Ibaizabal. The engines will feature a new technology that "dramatically reduces methane emissions when operating with LNG fuel", Wartsila said. The equipment is scheduled for fast-track delivery to the yard in September this year and the ship is expected to be delivered before the end of 2026, the firm said. Wartsila has been expanding its reach in the sustainable fuels market, with nearly a quarter of its ship engine orders last year for vessels powered by alternative fuels. The company announced a deal last year to convert Norwegian shipowner Eidesvik's offshore supply vessel Viking Energy to an ammonia engine beginning in 2026. It has also been investing in methanol-fuelled engines since launching the product in 2022. By Natália Coelho Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Generic Hero Banner

Business intelligence reports

Get concise, trustworthy and unbiased analysis of the latest trends and developments in oil and energy markets. These reports are specially created for decision makers who don’t have time to track markets day-by-day, minute-by-minute.

Learn more