Generic Hero BannerGeneric Hero Banner
Latest market news

Taxes, shipment woes cloud Turkey sunoil import outlook

  • Market: Agriculture
  • 23/09/22

Turkey's sunflower oil (SFO) import pace has remained strong this month, despite earlier expectations and the nation's ongoing sunflower seed (SFS) harvest, but the recent increase in SFO import duties and potential disruptions to the Black Sea grain corridor could weigh on receipts in the coming months. Meanwhile, the nation's growing interest in SFO re-exports could provide some support to imports.

A combined 43,000t of Ukrainian SFO was delivered to Turkey earlier this month, suggesting that the nation's imports of product already rose to a new September high in recent years, just marginally below the 45,000t received in September 2012. Including potential deliveries from other suppliers in September — for which data are not yet available — or assuming additional shipments from Ukraine later this month, Turkey's SFO imports could hit a record for September this year.

With 70,500t imported globally in July and a further 23,500t from Ukraine in August, Turkey's SFO receipts so far in the 2022-23 marketing year (July-June) already hit at least 137,000t. This would be up from 123,200t received in July-September last year and the second-highest volume for the period in the past 10 years.

The strong pace of SFO imports contradicts earlier expectations, as Turkey was previously anticipated to reduce its receipts this season to crush more imported and domestic SFS. Turkish 2022-23 SFO imports are projected to fall to 800,000t from the 1.28mn t estimated for 2021-22, according to the US Department of Agriculture (USDA). At the same time, the USDA pegs domestic SFS production and imports in 2022-23 at multi-year highs of 1.9mn t and 1.25mn t, respectively, with total crush volumes due to reach a record 2.8mn t.

Turkey's SFS imports were strong in July at 119,000t but just 11,300t were delivered from Ukraine's Black Sea ports in August-September — the nation's primary supplier of crop.

But strong SFO imports were in line with Turkey's extended 0pc import duty policy for SFO arrivals at the start of the season. The duty was lifted to 10pc only last week, contrasting with long-term practices as the government usually raises import taxes ahead or at the start of the SFS harvest in the summer to support domestic production.

The tax could prompt buyers to step down SFO receipts, as import costs for Turkey have already soared in recent weeks amid a weakening lira against the US dollar. At the same time, domestic SFS prices have fallen to around 11,500 lira/t ($625/t) from peaks of TL16,000/t in June, which could prompt Turkish crushers to opt for domestic crop.

And uncertainties around the renewal of Ukraine's grain corridor could further weigh on Turkey's SFO imports, with the former stepping up shipments in the summer and overtaking Russia as the primary supplier of Turkey. In case of a full return to river and land shipments only, Ukrainian exporters could give priority to corn in a bid to liquidate ample old-crop stocks of crop and amid the new-crop harvest.

That said, Turkish buyers could turn to Russia for SFO imports, with the latter's export tax on product due to fall to zero in October from 8,621.30 roubles/t ($149.80/t) in September. The reduction is a result of Russia's calculation scheme for the floating export duty and could boost the nation's slowing SFO shipment pace over the next few months.

Turkey's rising SFO re-export business could also provide support to imports despite higher prices. Since the start of the war in Ukraine, Turkey has stepped up SFO shipments both to its neighbours and new destinations, despite government-imposed restrictions on exports of SFO produced in the country, implying they could be re-exports instead. Turkey exported nearly 50,000t of SFO to India in April-July alone, having shipped a mere 2,000t to the destination over the nine previous years.


Sharelinkedin-sharetwitter-sharefacebook-shareemail-share

Related news posts

Argus illuminates the markets by putting a lens on the areas that matter most to you. The market news and commentary we publish reveals vital insights that enable you to make stronger, well-informed decisions. Explore a selection of news stories related to this one.

News
03/04/25

Funding cuts could delay US river lock renovations

Funding cuts could delay US river lock renovations

Houston, 3 April (Argus) — The US Army Corps of Engineers (Corps) will have to choose between various lock reconstruction and waterway projects for its annual construction plan after its funding was cut earlier this year. Last year Congress allowed the Corps to use $800mn from unspent infrastructure funds for other waterways projects. But when Congress passed a continuing resolutions for this year's budget they effectively removed that $800mn from what was a $2.6bn annual budget for lock reconstruction and waterways projects. This means a construction plan that must be sent to Congress by 14 May can only include $1.8bn in spending. No specific projects were allocated funding by Congress, allowing the Corps the final say on what projects it pursues under the new budget. River industry trade group Waterways Council said its top priority is for the Corps to provide a combined $205mn for work at the Montgomery lock in Pennsylvania on the Ohio River and Chickamauga lock in Tennesee on the Tennessee River since they are the nearest to completion and could become more expensive if further delayed. There are seven active navigation construction projects expected to take precedent, including the following: the Chickamauga and Kentucky Locks on the Tennessee River; Locks 2-4 on the Monongahela River; the Three Rivers project on the Arkansas River; the LaGrange Lock and Lock 25 on the Illinois River; and the Montgomery Lock on the Ohio River. There are three other locks in Texas, Pennsylvania and Illinois that are in the active design phase (see map) . By Meghan Yoyotte Corps active construction projects 2025 Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Find out more
News

Ags prices caught up in tariff fallout


03/04/25
News
03/04/25

Ags prices caught up in tariff fallout

Paris, 3 April (Argus) — Grain and oilseed traders were buffeted by volatile futures markets and exchange rates on Wednesday. But the full impact of the tariffs imposed by the US — a major net exporter of wheat, corn and soy — is only likely to emerge once other governments' responses become clear. Wheat, corn and soybean futures were trading lower on the day when the Chicago Board of Trade opened on 3 April, the day after the US announced a swathe of import tariffs . But corn and wheat futures contracts began to recover hours later. Canada and Mexico, which made headlines in the initial wave of tariffs from Trump's administration, were on the sidelines on 2 April. Both are covered by the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA). This means Mexico could remain an important outlet for US corn and wheat — for now. US corn sellers have relied heavily on Mexico to shore up sales this marketing year. Of the 54mn t of current-crop US corn sold for export this marketing year (September-August) as of 27 March, 19mn t has been for Mexico, US Department of Agriculture (USDA) data show. USDA sees US corn exports hitting 62mn t this marketing year. Impact on Europe and Asia Euronext wheat, corn and rapeseed futures also began trading down on the day. But a sharp fall in the value of the dollar against the euro meant bids and offers for EU wheat discussed in the physical market in dollar terms held more or less steady early today. The Interactive Data Corp exchange rate closed at €0.90630 to the dollar at midday in London on 3 April — the lowest since October 2024. Ukrainian corn sellers are under particular pressure from a drop in the price of US commodities on certain markets, but could also stand to gain from a halt in deliveries of US corn to importers in Asia, before Brazil begins shipping its safrinha crop in July. Ukrainian corn typically competes with the US in Mediterranean markets, notably Spain, and in China. But Ukrainian corn has not been competitive against US corn recently — in the month since 3 March , when the US doubled tariffs on China from the 10pc introduced on 4 February, Ukrainian corn fob prices' premium to US corn fob Gulf has climbed, and in late March it hit its highest in Ukraine's current October-September marketing year, Argus -assessed prices show. But there is no guarantee that buyers will pay up, at least not immediately. Chinese buyers have already distanced themselves from US corn and soybeans this marketing year. Chinese buyers took little notice of Ukrainian corn sellers floating offers at above $270/t cif China on 2 April, immediately after the US announced an additional 34pc tariff on imports from China — bringing the actual rate to 54pc — and Beijing vowed retaliation . Chinese importers bid for Ukrainian corn in the $250s/t cif for July-August loading last week . Chinese buyers could be exposed to hikes in Brazilian soybean prices — something that might be more likely if EU buyers book more soybeans from Brazil at the expense of US cargoes. US soybean sales to China have already begun to slow. Chinese crushers have avoided US soybeans since December because of uncertainty over trade relations. Shipments to China dominated US vessel line-ups in late March, with exporters sending 641,000t to China on 21-27 March alone. Some 600,000t of corn was sold but not yet shipped as of 27 March, compared with 1.6mn t still to ship at the same point last month, weekly USDA data show. By Claudia Jackson Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

News

Australian beef targeted by US' 10pc tariff


03/04/25
News
03/04/25

Australian beef targeted by US' 10pc tariff

Sydney, 3 April (Argus) — Imports of Australian goods will be tariffed at a general rate of 10pc, US president Donald Trump announced on 2 April, as he signalled his displeasure regarding Australia's biosecurity regulations on agricultural product imports. Australian imports will be levied with a broad 10pc tariff , the minimum under the Trump administration's regime designed to boost domestic production and raise revenue. Trump cited Australia's biosecurity-based restrictions on US beef imports as a reason for his tariff imposition. "Australia bans American beef and yet we imported $3bn of Australian beef from them last year alone, they won't take any of our beef," Trump said at the White House on 2 April, "They don't want it because they don't want it to affect their farmers." Australia's main export of beef to the US is lean trim, rather than cuts, with total beef exports of 395,000t in 2024, or 29pc of the total 1.34mn t shipped. Australia's other significant trade partners include China, South Korea, Japan and the Middle East. The decision comes as US cattle ranchers remain drought-affected, with nearly 40pc of the nation classed as suffering from moderate-to-exceptional drought at the end of January 2025, the US' National Drought Mitigation Centre said. The female-to-male slaughter ratio has reached its highest average in 25 years in the past six years, with the country recording its smallest January herd numbers since 1951 in 2025. The world's largest cattle producers Brazil and Australia exported record quantities of beef in 2024, while the US will export 13pc less and import 3pc more beef in 2025 on the back of its declining herd, according to the US Department of Agriculture (USDA). This is despite a recent update from the USDA indicating that heavier-than-expected carcase weights will increase domestic output by 120mn lbs from the previous forecast. Tariff impacts on Australian beef values is expected to be limited based on the 10pc figure because of high US domestic beef prices, low storage levels and declining numbers of US cattle on feed. Feedlot placements were down by 18pc on the year on 1 March, USDA statistics show. Import mix Major competitor Brazil was also hit with a 10pc general tariff on goods. The country already incurs 26.4pc above-quota tariff rates for exports to the US, which were applied from 17 January 2025. But Australia receives 448,000 t/yr tariff-free access under a free trade agreement signed with the US in 2005. Beef imports from Mexico and Canada will be exempt from the 10pc reciprocal tariffs, along with other products under the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement. Canada and Mexico accounted for 22pc and 13pc of US beef imports respectively in 2024 according to USDA data, and the countries could gain a larger share of the US beef market going forward. New Zealand's beef exports to the US totalled 183,000t in 2024, with the nation's red meat exporters still expecting high demand from the US despite potential disruption to trade flows because of the 10pc tariff. By Tom Major and Grace Dudley Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

News

Trump imposes broad 10pc import tax: Update 2


02/04/25
News
02/04/25

Trump imposes broad 10pc import tax: Update 2

Updates with details throughout, Canadian comments and graphics. Washington, 2 April (Argus) — All foreign imports into the US will be subject to a minimum 10pc tax, with levels as high as 34pc for China and 20pc for the EU under President Donald Trump's sweeping tariff measure announced today. But Mexico and Canada, the US' closest trading partners who have seen on-and-off tariffs from Trump this year, have largely been spared any additional penalties, with the US-Mexico-Canada (USMCA) free trade agreement continuing to hold sway over most commerce between the countries. "April 2, 2025 will forever be remembered as the day American industry was reborn, the day America's destiny was reclaimed, and the day that we began to make America wealthy again," Trump said at a ceremony in the White House Rose Garden. Trump referred to his new tariffs as "reciprocal", meaning that they are meant to force foreign countries to lower their alleged high tariffs and other barriers to US exports. But Trump and his key allies in Congress have left little doubt that the tariffs are meant to be permanent, turning into a major source of revenue to offset the planned extension of tax cuts and other economic priorities. Trump issued an economic emergency declaration with respect to all foreign imports to make them subject to 10pc taxes beginning at 12:01 ET on 5 April. Foreign trade partners with which the US runs large trade deficits will be subject to additional import taxes, beginning on 9 April. The new tariffs will include both the 10pc baseline and the additional tariff. They also are on top of previously assessed import duties. In the case of China, US imports from that country will be subject to an additional 34pc tax from 9 April. Combined with previously enacted tariffs, all imports from China will be subject to 54pc taxes. In the case of the EU, US imports will be subject to a 20pc tax after 9 April, in addition to the regular tariff rates. Energy and "certain minerals that are not available in the US" imported from all other countries also will be exempt from the tariffs announced today. The 2 April tariffs will not apply to steel and aluminum, cars, trucks, and auto parts — which already are subject to separate tariffs — and to copper, pharmaceuticals, semiconductors and lumber. The tariffs will apply only to the non-US content of the imported product, so long as at least 20pc of it originates in the US. Trump did not reimpose punitive tariffs on energy and other imports from Canada and Mexico. All products covered under the US-Mexico-Canada (USMCA) free trade agreement will continue to be imported into the US without tariffs — including energy commodities like oil and refined products. Canadian prime minister Mark Carney said Wednesday the actions "preserved a number of important elements" of US-Canadian commerce, but that existing tariffs on steel and aluminium, and tariffs on automobiles will need to be addressed. Carney said his government will meet early Thursday to discuss next steps. Trump since taking office has already imposed a 20pc tariff on all imports from China, in effect since 4 March, and a 25pc tax on all imported steel and aluminum, in effect since 12 March. A 25pc tariff on all imported cars and trucks is scheduled to go into effect on Thursday, and a 25pc tax on auto parts will go into effect on 3 May. By Haik Gugarats New US import tariffs Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

News

Mexico manufacturing extends contraction in March


02/04/25
News
02/04/25

Mexico manufacturing extends contraction in March

Mexico City, 2 April (Argus) — Mexico's manufacturing sector contracted for a 12th consecutive month in March, with production and employment both deepening their slides, according to a survey released today. The manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) ticked up to 47.2 in March from 47.1 in February, but remained below the 50-point threshold between contraction and expansion, according to the latest PMI survey from the finance executive association IMEF. Manufacturing, which accounts for about a fifth of Mexico's economy, is led by the auto sector, contributing about 18pc of manufacturing GDP. Within the manufacturing PMI, the new orders index rose by 1.3 points to 45.3, still deep in contraction. Meanwhile, production fell by 0.6 points to 44.6. The employment index also declined 0.6 points to 46.4 in March, now in contraction for 14 consecutive months. Meanwhile, the non-manufacturing PMI — covering services and commerce — declined 0.8 points to 48.8 in March from 49.6 in February, holding in contraction for a fourth consecutive month. Within the non-manufacturing PMI, new orders fell 1.5 points to 48.2 and production declined 1 point to 47.5 with employment down a point as well in March to 47.5, as all three pushed deeper into contraction. In contrast, the inventories component rose 3.5 points to 50.6 into expansion territory in March. But this may be the result of company strategies to stockpile inventories ahead of US tariffs and the reciprocal measures Mexico is set to announce on 3 April, IMEF technical advisory board member Sergio Luna said. PMI data show that the economic stagnation that began in late 2024 persisted through March, with results from January and February pointing to a sharp slowdown in the first quarter, IMEF said. This follows annualized GDP growth of 0.5pc in the fourth quarter of 2024, slowing from 1.7pc in the third quarter, according to national statistics agency data. Luna said concerns over US tariffs continue to drive much of the uncertainty reflected in the PMI data. Internal factors — such as reduced government spending to contain the fiscal deficit and investor unease over judicial reforms passed last year — are also weighing on activity, Luna added. By James Young Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Generic Hero Banner

Business intelligence reports

Get concise, trustworthy and unbiased analysis of the latest trends and developments in oil and energy markets. These reports are specially created for decision makers who don’t have time to track markets day-by-day, minute-by-minute.

Learn more