AutoForecast cuts NorthAm production outlook further

Market: Coking coal, Metals
03/10/22

Expectations for North America automotive production volumes in 2022 continue to decline, according to AutoForecast Solutions.

North America automakers will build 14.43mn vehicles in 2022, down by 20,000 vehicles from the previous estimate, the forecaster said.

Since its initial 2022 forecast of 15.27mn vehicles, AutoForecast has cut its production expectations for the US, Canada and Mexico by 840,000 vehicles, or 5.5pc.

So far this year AutoForecast has said regional automakers have lost the production of 573,000 vehicles, with the production of another 450,000 vehicles listed as at risk.

The average North American vehicle consumes 1,980lbs of steel, of which approximately 1,480lbs are flat-rolled products, as well as 486lbs of aluminum, according to data from the American Iron and Steel Institute's (AISI) Automotive Program.

Estimated lost production this year would equal to 621,600 short tons (st) of flat steel consumption and 204,100st of aluminum.

By Rye Druzin

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28/03/25

US consumer confidence down on policy angst

Houston, 28 March (Argus) — The University of Michigan's gauge of consumer sentiment fell in March to the lowest level since November 2022, led by a slump in expectations over the "potential for pain" from US economic policies introduced by the new administration. Sentiment fell to 57, down from 64.7 in February and 79.4 in March 2024, according to the University of Michigan's consumer sentiment survey released Friday. The final reading for March was lower than the preliminary reading. The sentiment index fell to a record low of 50 in June 2022 on inflation concerns. The index of consumer expectations fell to 52.6, the lowest since July 2022, from 64 in February and 77.4 in March last year. The expectations index has lost more than 30pc since November last year. "Consumers continue to worry about the potential for pain amid ongoing economic policy developments," the survey director Joanne Hsu said. The decline "reflects a clear consensus across all demographic and political affiliations: Republicans joined independents and Democrats in expressing worsening expectations … for their personal finances, business conditions, unemployment and inflation," Hsu said. Current economic conditions slipped to 63.8 in March from 65.7 in February and 82.5 last March. Two thirds of consumers expect unemployment to rise in the year ahead, the highest reading since 2009. Year-ahead inflation expectations jumped to 5pc this month, the highest reading since November 2022, from 4.3pc last month. The University of Michigan survey comes three days after The Conference Board's preliminary Consumer Expectations Index fell in March to its lowest in 12 years, to below a threshold that "usually signals" a recession. By Bob Willis Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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UK steel importers oppose other countries' caps

28/03/25

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28/03/25

UK steel importers oppose other countries' caps

London, 28 March (Argus) — Steel importers in the UK suggest the imposition of a cap on any other countries' quotas could effectively stop trade, given the small volume of the quotas. In a recent submission to the Trade Remedies Authority, UK Steel said 15pc caps should be introduced on other countries quotas for hot-dip galvanised, plate and rebar. But in its submission to the TRA, trading firm Salzgitter Mannesmann argues that any cap based on a percentage of the quota "will ultimately most likely remove rather than reduce imports as shipments from many third countries, notably the far east, require a certain base volume to ship economically to the UK". Other trading firms and service centres told Argus they share the same view. Salzgitter Mannesmann also suggested a new country quotas for individual importers be added to the safeguard based on their imports over the past two or three years. The only local producer of hot-dip galvanised coil, Tata Steel, would be likely to argue against this as volumes from some countries, notably Vietnam, have increased dramatically in recent years. Salzgitter Mannesmann also suggests Tata Steel cannot produce hot-rolled coil over 1.85m wide, for which the UK has to totally rely on imports. Traders have for some time argued that there should be no import constraints on material, such as 2m wide, as there can be no injury to the producer on grades it cannot produce. Service centre Sebden Steel said the current measures make it "impossible" for the UK to be flooded with cheap foreign imports, and that people are "misinformed by mainstream media and UK Steel". "The UK producer is in a safe place already and any additional measures will only serve to cause injury to independent steel service centres, independent steel stockholders and the UK manufacturing base, which will all be faced with a further tightening of the supply chain and increased costs," it said. Importers, unsurprisingly, question why Tata Steel, now a re-roller until its electric arc furnaces are installed, can import on much more favourable terms than others. Tata has a much bigger quota than the rest of the market, at around 2.3mn t, but the main problem for importers is that the company has fewer constraints on where it can source, with only a 40pc cap on any given country within that quota. Independent service centres, which all compete with Tata Distribution, can only import much smaller quantities from different locations, given the fragmented composition of quotas; the other countries quota for 1A, for example, is less than 100,000 t/yr. EU mills have far and away the largest quota to sell 1A HRC into the UK, but given their higher costs compared with Asian producers, they struggle to compete; Tata's imports come from all over the world, as well as some from its sister mill in IJmuiden, the Netherlands. By Colin Richardson Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Australia's Aurelia Metals to boost Cu, Zn processing

28/03/25

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28/03/25

Australia's Aurelia Metals to boost Cu, Zn processing

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Recent deep-sea and short-sea cfr Turkey scrap deals

27/03/25

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27/03/25

Recent deep-sea and short-sea cfr Turkey scrap deals

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AM/NS India to set up first scrap processing unit

27/03/25

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AM/NS India to set up first scrap processing unit

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