Fracking bottlenecks threaten US output growth
The US government continues to press domestic oil producers to boost output to help address surging energy prices, but the reality on the ground, according to one of the country's leading oil field services companies, is that a lack of available staff and equipment for hydraulic fracturing present a huge obstacle to raising production.
There is very little spare equipment to go around and, even if producers wanted to step up drilling, they would find it difficult to obtain a frac fleet, Chris Wright, chief executive of Liberty Energy, the second-largest provider of fracking services to US onshore producers, tells Argus. "There are a lot of barriers to growing, but if I had to point to one, tightness in the frac market might be the biggest issue of all," Wright says.
Shale producers have faced significant obstacles in ramping up activity this year, ranging from surging inflation to supply-chain bottlenecks. Investor demands for capital discipline and improved returns have also capped any growth ambitions public operators might harbour during a year of high oil prices.
But labour shortages, which have plagued the industry over the past year or so, are finally starting to ease. "They're still quite challenging today but, fortunately, they're less challenging than they were six months or 12 months ago," Wright says. Liberty, which moved up the ranks of US service providers with its 2020 purchase of Schlumberger's North American fracking business, is now hiring skilled workers from outside the oil and gas industry and training them up.
Meanwhile, delivery times for everything from engines to electronic components have grown longer, while costs for parts and labour-intensive services have increased. "All of these things are still real," Wright says. "They are making it a little harder to run frac operations for us and certainly for the whole industry."
The most recent conversations with customers have focused on security of supply and timeliness. The normal seasonal slowdown going into the year-end may be less marked this year if producers are reluctant to risk losing existing frac crews. "You don't want to drill a bunch of wells and have them ready to frac at the end of January and then not have them fracked until July," Wright notes.
Liberty reactivated six fleets acquired through the Schlumberger deal during the third quarter, but may add just two fleets next year if the company decides it is "too challenging to hire and staff further", Wright says.
Frac in business
The Permian has dominated shale activity as the industry has emerged from the Covid-19 pandemic, but other basins such as Eagle Ford in South Texas and North Dakota's Bakken are holding their own — although the Bakken is still facing significant labour challenges. "There's pretty robust activity across the basins," Wright says, even though some have slowed from the rapid growth rates seen in the previous decade.
Faced with the prospect of a global recession, the industry may cope better than others given the tight market. "If it's modest, which I think is most people's default assumption, then commodity prices sort of already reflect that," Wright says.
Liberty started the year predicting that US crude output would grow by 600,000-800,000 b/d. Although production may end up at the lower end of that range, Wright says a similar rate of growth could be expected for 2023, but noted the delays in permitting and getting pipelines built among other increased regulatory hurdles: "The growing burdens from the government, both at the state and federal level, are definitely an incremental headwind to growing US production."
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Union plans new rail strike despite arbitration order
Union plans new rail strike despite arbitration order
Washington, 23 August (Argus) — The status of rail freight in Canada remains uncertain after a Canadian labor union today issued a new strike notice to Canadian National (CN), less than a day after the federal government forced all parties to participate in binding arbitration. The Teamsters Canada Rail Conference (TCRC) today issued notice to CN that members will go on strike at 10am ET on 26 August. The union had not issued a strike notice to CN earlier this week, but employees could not work yesterday after the CN and Canadian Pacific Kansas City (CPKC) locked them out. "We do not believe that any of the matters we have been discussing over the last several days are insurmountable," the union said today in its notice to CN. It said it would be available to discuss issues to avoid another work stoppage. CN indicated it was frustrated with the union's action. "While CN is focused on its recovery plan to get back to powering the economy, the Teamsters are focused on returning to the picket line and holding the country hostage to their demands," the railroad said. CN last night had begun implementing a recovery plan to restore service . The union has not yet responded to inquiries about its action today. The office of labour minister Steven MacKinnon declined to comment. Rail operations at CN and CP stopped at 12:01am ET on Thursday after the union launched a strike at CPKC and both railroads locked out employees. That action ended late Thursday afternoon with the federal government directing the Canada Industrial Relations Board (CIRB) to manage binding arbitration on the railroads. CIRB, an independent agency, has not yet said if it will accept the government's order. CN began moving some freight early on 23 August, but the new strike order issued soon by the union today could disrupt those plans. The union has also challenged the constitutionality of MacKinnon's order regarding CPKC operations pending the outcome of a new ruling by the CIRB. CPKC's rail fleet remains parked in the meantime. CPKC said late Thursday it was disappointed in the minister's decision and sought to meet with CIRB to discuss resumption of service. CPKC said the union "refused to discuss any resumption of service, and instead indicated that they wish to make submissions to challenge the constitutionality of the Minister's direction." A case management meeting with CIRB occurred last night and another was scheduled for early today. By Abby Caplan Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
‘Time has come’ for rate cuts: Fed chair Powell
‘Time has come’ for rate cuts: Fed chair Powell
Houston, 23 August (Argus) — US Federal Reserve chairman Jerome Powell today told a central bank symposium that the "time has come" for the Fed to begin lowering borrowing costs, just weeks before the next Fed policy meeting in mid-September. "The time has come for policy to adjust," he told an audience of central bankers and economists at the annual symposium at Jackson Hole, Wyoming. "The direction of travel is clear, and the timing and pace of rate cuts will depend on incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks." Powell's remarks today are the clearest signal that the Fed is ready to begin lowering borrowing costs, a move that would help spur economic activity as the economy has shown signs of slowing. The move would also come a little over two months before the presidential election in the US. After the 31 July Fed policy meeting that kept the rate unchanged, Powell said that if economic data continued to come in as expected, a rate cut "could be on the table" for the September meeting. After Powell's remarks today, the CME's FedWatch tool was signaling 65.5pc odds of a quarter point rate cut at the next Fed meeting and 34.5pc probability of a 50 basis point cut. That compares with 76pc for a quarter point cut and 24pc for a half point cut Thursday. "With an appropriate dialing back of policy restraint, there is good reason to think that the economy will get back to 2pc inflation while maintaining a strong labor market," he said today in the text of his speech. "The upside risks to inflation have diminished. And the downside risks to employment have increased." The Fed — which has a dual mandate of pursuing maximum employment and price stability — has been battling to bring down inflation for the last two years after it peaked at 9.1pc in June 2022. In the sharpest course of rate hikes in four decades, the Fed pushed up its target rate by more than five percentage points to a range of 5.25-5.5pc from early 2022 through July 2023. The Fed has maintained the target rate at that level since then, which has pushed the consumer price index to 2.9pc in the year through July, its lowest in three years. While inflation has slowed markedly, the economy has largely proven resilient. Still, the labor market has shown signs of weakening recently, especially as a much weaker-than-expected employment report for July caused a brief meltdown on financial markets several weeks ago. This prompted some economists to warn that the Fed had been too slow in adjusting its policy as recession fears had mounted. "We will do everything we can to support a strong labor market as we make further progress toward price stability," Powell said. "The current level of our policy rate gives us ample room to respond to any risks we may face." Powell noted that the labor market "has cooled considerably from its formerly overheated state," pointing out that unemployment had risen by nearly one percentage point to 4.3pc in July from early 2023, "still low by historical standards… Even so, the cooling in labor market conditions is unmistakable." By Bob Willis Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Court endorses Maduro win amid warnings, violence
Court endorses Maduro win amid warnings, violence
Caracas, 23 August (Argus) — Venezuela's supreme court validated the reelection of President Nicolas Maduro to a third six-year term, maintaining he is the victor of the polemic 28 July vote. The court did not present any electoral material, ballots or tallies to support the claim, and no experts offered testimony. "This chamber declares ... the validity of the electoral material surveyed and validates the results of the presidential election," court chief justice Caryslia Rodriguez said. She also declared presidential candidate Edmundo Gonzalez to be in contempt of court for not attending the proceedings. Rodriguez's announcement came two hours after a UN mission questioned the official results. "We warn about the lack of independence and impartiality of the supreme court of justice and the national electoral council of Venezuela, which have played a role within the repressive machinery of the state," the UN fact-finding mission on Venezuela posted on social media. Gonzalez has produced electoral material, including tallies printed by voting machines and signed by witnesses on election day, giving him the victory by almost 70pc to 30pc. The "actas," as the tallies are known in Venezuela, were validated by several independent parties, including the Carter Center, the UN and the Organization of American states. The CNE electoral agency has also failed to present any of the other sets of these documents. Audits were never conducted. The Maduro government confirmed this week that 27 Venezuelans were killed in post-electoral violence, for which it blamed the opposition. Human rights non-government organization Provea said the bulk of the violence came from police and the military. Six anti-Maduro demonstrators were killed on 29 July near an army base. By Carlos Camacho Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Libya's parliament speaker warns of oil blockade
Libya's parliament speaker warns of oil blockade
Antalya, 23 August (Argus) — The speaker of Libya's eastern-based parliament has warned of a possible oil blockade over an attempt to replace the central bank governor. "Replacing the governor in the current situation may result in shutting down oil and stopping the transfer of its revenues to the central bank," said Aguila Saleh, whose parliament is supported by eastern-based general Khalifa Haftar's Libyan National Army (LNA). The LNA has imposed several politically motivated oil blockades in the past few years, which have wiped out huge chunks of Libya's nominal 1.2mn b/d of crude production. The LNA ordered the shutdown of the El Sharara field earlier this month, resulting in around 250,000 b/d being shut in . Libya's current output is around 1mn b/d. Libya's Tripoli-based Presidential Council issued an order on 18 August to replace central bank governor Sadiq al-Kabir, who has resisted efforts to remove him. Libya's oil export revenues flow into the central bank, making it one of the country's most powerful institutions. The UN's Libya mission on 22 August called for the dispute to be resolved peacefully. The mission "expresses grave concerns about reports of mobilisation of forces in Tripoli, including the threats to use force to resolve the crisis surrounding the Central Bank of Libya," it said. Libya is politically fragmented, with armed groups propping up rival administrations in the east and west. The move against al-Kabir threatens to destabilise a fragile peace that has held since 2020, when eastern and western based military forces reached a ceasefire agreement. By Aydin Calik Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
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