US HRC: Prices flat, market sees lower offers

Market: Metals
25/10/22

US hot rolled coil (HRC) prices were flat this week as the market continued to search for direction.

The Argus weekly domestic US HRC Midwest assessment slipped by $1.25/short ton (st) to $736.25/st, while the southern assessment fell by $3.75/st to the same level.

HRC lead times in the Midwest were flat at 3-4 weeks.

Most offers were reported between $700-760/st, with sales reported at $760/st.

Integrated steelmaker Cleveland-Cliffs' chief executive Lourenco Goncalves said this morning that his company will aim for quarterly production rates of 3.9mn-4mn st, an increase of 8-11pc compared to the first three quarters of 2022, which averaged around 3.6mn st. The increased production is supposed to be consumed by improved automotive demand, which rose by 100,000st between the second and third quarters.

It's unclear how the market will react to more flat production, which will come as oversupply remains a top issue and additional flat-rolled production will be ramping up in the next six months.

In its earnings last week, electric arc furnace (EAF) steelmaker Nucor said its mills, which comprise the largest steelmaking footprint in the country, produced at a 77pc utilization rate in the third quarter. EAF competitor Steel Dynamics said it ran at 93pc utilization rate during the same period.

The market continues to wait on results of negotiations between integrated steelmaker US Steel and the USW for a new contract to replace the one that expired on 1 September. Many cite a potential strike as the only action that could turn around the market, save increased production cuts by steelmakers.

US Steel has already take offline two blast furnaces in response to market conditions. No other steelmaker has followed suit.

The Argus HRC import assessment into Houston increased by $15/st to $700/st ddp on limited import offers.

The spread between #1 busheling scrap delivered US Midwest mills and HRC edged down by $2/st to $422/st.

A year ago the spread was $1,414/st as HRC prices were hovering near record-high levels and beginning to decline.

The Argus weekly domestic US cold-rolled coil (CRC) assessment plunged by $77.50/st to $930/st, as prices continued to correct downward while the hot dipped galvanized (HDG) coil assessment dropped by $63.50/st to $924.50/st.

Lead times for CRC were flat at 6 weeks, while HDG lead times increased to 6 weeks from 5-6 weeks.

The CME HRC Midwest futures market was down in the last week, with the futures prices tightening to a $40/st range through May. December prices fell by $21/st to $705/st, while January prices dropped by $34/st to $706/st. February prices fell by $20/st to $720/st, and March prices declined by $24/st to $731/st. April prices fell by $25/st to $740/st, while May prices dropped by $30/st to $745/st.

Plate

The Argus weekly domestic US ex-works plate assessment was down slightly by $2.50/st to $1,617.50/st.

Lead times were flat at 4 weeks.

The plate delivered assessment edged up by $1/st to $1,661/st.

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