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US oil sector sees chance to overhaul permitting

  • Market: Crude oil, Emissions, Natural gas, Oil products
  • 11/01/23

The split control of the US Congress offers a pathway to pass legislation that would fast-track permitting of pipelines and other energy projects, the US oil and gas sector's top lobbyist said today.

Oil and gas companies have spent years pushing for legislation to revise permitting laws they say are delaying needed energy infrastructure, without success. But pent up bipartisan demand for faster permitting and the makeup of Congress have given top industry officials optimism for legislative action on permitting in 2023.

"It won't be easy, but divided government gives us a real chance to build consensus around meaningful reform," American Petroleum Institute president Mike Sommers said today at his group's annual State of American Energy event.

Pipelines, energy projects on public land, LNG export facilities, electric transmission lines and other energy projects often have to navigate a labyrinth of time-consuming permitting requirements. For larger projects, permitting can take years, particularly if there are challenges from residents and environmentalists.

Democrats led by US senator Joe Manchin (D-West Virginia) last year made some progress on permitting through a bill that focused on electric transmission lines for renewables and approving the delayed $6.6bn Mountain Valley natural gas pipeline. Although the bill was thwarted by a lack of Republican support, oil industry officials see the support by Democrats — including President Joe Biden — as a promising sign for permitting advancing this year.

Republicans intend to advance their own permitting bill out of the House Energy and Commerce Committee, which is chaired by Cathy McMorris Rogers (D-Washington). Rogers said although she had concerns with Manchin's bill, including its handling of local input on electric transmission, she applauded the recognition by Democrats of the need for permitting legislation.

"There is a bipartisan recognition and now we'll go to work on the details to actually get permitting reform done," Rogers said at the industry event.

But there is reason for skepticism that permitting legislation can pass through this Congress. Although both parties generally agree permitting should go faster, House Republicans have pushed for major changes to environmental laws that have little chance of adoption in the Democratic-controlled Senate.

Oil industry officials say they want to see negotiations on permitting to be bipartisan, and for legislation to pass by this year before Congress' focus switches to the 2024 presidential elections.

"We want it to move this year," Sommers said. "I think once you get out of 2023, it becomes another political issue."

In addition to permitting, the American Petroleum Institute said this year it would be pushing for expanded federal oil and gas leasing, progress on an offshore leasing plan for 2023-28, expedited approval of LNG export facilities and changes to pending climate disclosure requirements for publicly traded companies.


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22/11/24

Singapore bitumen export prices likely to fall further

Singapore bitumen export prices likely to fall further

Mumbai, 22 November (Argus) — Singapore seaborne bitumen prices are expected to continue falling in the near term because of limited import demand from southeast Asia and competitive offers from other exporting regions like south China and Thailand. The daily fob Singapore ABX 1 prices were assessed by Argus at $445/t on 21 November, while the weekly prices were last assessed on 15 November at $452/t, down by $7.50/t on the week. Singapore prices have been on a downtrend since the end of October, when demand for November- and December-loading cargoes slowed because of atypically low consumption in key importing countries like Indonesia and Vietnam. This led to insufficient ullage to continually procure cargoes. While prices reached the highest level since mid-November 2023 to $467.50/t on 27 September, tight supply offset limited demand](https://direct.argusmedia.com/newsandanalysis/article/2607417) and kept prices at the same level for most of October, before falling to $465.50/t fob Singapore on 25 October. Consumption in Vietnam has increased in the current quarter albeit slowly, especially in the north, but prolonged inclement weather in the southern and central regions has failed to lend support, Vietnam-based importers and southeast Asia-based exporters told Argus . Budget constraints and project cancellations have weighed on Indonesian consumption despite the last quarter being the usual peak demand season, Indonesia-based importers said. Domestic production stood at normal levels, making supply outpace demand, they added. The end-year consumption outlook is currently lower than previously expected, with spot cargo requirements also limited by term import commitments, regional imports said. Although consumption for Singapore-origin tank trucks remained stable from Malaysia — where a key refiner stopped producing bitumen in the first half of 2024 — there was no additional demand from Malaysia to support Singapore exports, market participants said. The weekly Singapore tank truck prices were assessed at $505/t ex-refinery on 15 November, down by $12.50/t on the week. Prices rose to their highest level since mid-December 2022 at $531/t ex-refinery in the week of 11 October, when Singapore refiners had to ration the available cargoes to tank truck dealers, but Malaysian demand started to ebb because of the northeast monsoon. Overall Australian consumption was also lower than in previous years on the back of budget constraints. While current consumption was up on the month because of pent-up post-winter demand, spot cargo import requirements are unlikely to rise, Australia-based importers said. Singapore exported about 2.28mn t of bitumen over January-October, down from 2.64mn t during the same period last year, latest data from Global Trade Tracker (GTT) show. Of the total, 1.47mn t was exported to southeast Asia, down from 1.64mn t during the same period last year, while 605,000t was exported to China, compared with 751,000t. Meanwhile,southeast Asia-based exporters have noted that supply from Singapore is outpacing demand, as many importers prefer to procure incremental requirements from Taiwan, Thailand, and south China as offers from those regions were competitive with Singapore values. This may push Singapore-based refiners to further clampdown output in the near term, they added, with a few expecting at least a 10pc cut in output in the coming months. Some market participants told Argus that south China has transacted around 30,000-50,000t of November-loading cargoes, with December-loading volumes also likely around the same level. Although offers from south China were around $440-450/t fob south China, similar to Singapore values, those on a cfr basis were much more competitive because of lower freight, southeast Asian importers argued. Thai cargoes were discussed around $5-10/t lower than Singapore values last week. The weekly fob Thailand prices were assessed at $447.50/t on 15 November, down by $5/t on the week, marking the lowest level since early September. Although one of the three bitumen procuring refineries in Thailand switched to producing fuel oil, the product's availability for exports was more than sufficient because of limited import demand in southeast Asia, market participants said. By Sathya Narayanan, Claire Ng and Chloe Choo Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Pemex's lean Zama spending undercuts goals


21/11/24
News
21/11/24

Pemex's lean Zama spending undercuts goals

Mexico City, 21 November (Argus) — State-owned oil company Pemex's limited budget for developing one of Mexico's most-promising new oil fields is putting Mexico's crude production and refining goals at risk through 2030. First production from the Zama field will likely not start until at least 2028 instead of late next year, as forecast earlier, based on a timeline in a recent presentation from Pemex. Pemex continues to work on the basic engineering for the Zama field because of the lack of cash, staff of hydrocarbon regulator CNH said last week. The latest delay on Zama echoes criticism from when Pemex took over operating the field in 2022 that it did not have sufficient experience or funds to carry on with the project, said industry sources. "Unfortunately, the Pemex budget is always a shadowy mystery," said a person close to the project who asked not to be named. "There is no transparency or certainty regarding when they do and do not honor payment commitments." Zama is a shallow-water field unified in 2022 between Pemex area AE-152-Uchukil and the discovery made in 2017 by a consortium led by US oil company Talos Energy. Pemex holds 50.4pc of the Zama project while Talos and Slim's subsidiary Grupo Carso have 17.4pc, German company Wintershall Dea 17.4pc and British company Harbour Energy 12.4pc. The state-owned company expects to spend $370.8mn to develop Zama in 2025, 64pc less than the original $1.05bn budget proposed by Pemex for next year, according to data from CNH. The regulator cleared the change last week, but commissioners questioned the CNH staff about the new delays. Pemex's original development plan showed that the company forecast the first crude production by December 2025, with 2,000 b/d and about 4mn cf/d of gas. The original plan forecast Zama hitting peak production of 180,000 b/d in 2029, making it Mexico's second-largest crude producer, only under the Maloob field. President Claudia Sheinbaum and Pemex's new new chief executive Victor Rodriguez flagged the importance of shallow-water field Zama and ultra deep field Trion to support Pemex's oil production target of 1.8mn b/d in the upcoming six years in a presentation last week. Pemex's new plan is focused on feeding its own refining system rather than crude exports. The company expects to increase gasoline, diesel and jet fuel production by 343,000 b/d, according to the plan, but it did not give a timeline. Pemex produced 491,000 b/d of gasoline, diesel and jet fuel in the first nine months of 2024. Mexico's proposed 2025 federal budget also shows lower spending for Zama, at Ps3.1bn ($154mn) for 2025, even less than the figure approved by CNH on 14 November. Neither Pemex not Talos responded to requests for additional comment. "Zama is the story of the triumph of ideology over practicality," said a Pemex source who asked not to be named. The state-owned company is studying how to bring in new investors to the project once congress approves secondary laws to implement recent energy reforms, the source said. But uncertainty over the legal framework and the general deterioration of Mexico's business climate will make this more difficult, the Pemex source added. The involvement of Mexican billionaire Carlos Slim, who acquired 49.9pc of Talos Energy share in Zama last year, brought new hopes that work at Zama could finally accelerate. Instead, Slim's entrance slowed the project, as the new partner had to review the project, a former regulator who asked not to be named said. Talos Energy, the lead operator when the field was discovered over seven years ago, is now "frustrated" by the poor progress of the project. "We have Mexico, a great discovery in Zama, we're seven years into it, and still have not made a final investment decision on it," said Talos Energy interim chief executive Joseph Mills, in a conference call with investors last week. "So a lot of frustration there, as you can imagine." By Édgar Sígler Pemex 2024 crude output, throughput '000 b/d Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Brazil congress approves carbon market legislation


21/11/24
News
21/11/24

Brazil congress approves carbon market legislation

Sao Paulo, 21 November (Argus) — Brazil's lower house approved the creation of a regulated carbon market, which is seen as an essential tool for the country to meet its emissions reduction targets. The senate approved the bill earlier this month . It now awaits the president's signature to become law. The legislation, which has been the subject of legislative debates for more than three years, creates the Brazilian emissions trading system (SBCE) and stipulates that companies with emissions greater than 25,000 metric tons of CO2 equivalent (tCO2e)/yr will be subject to the cap-and-trade system. Companies with emissions from 10,000-25,000 tCO2e/yr will need to report their emissions but will not be required to offset them. The market will help Brazil reach its new nationally determined contribution (NDC), according to vice president Geraldo Alckmin. The new NDC , released earlier this month, stipulates that Brazil will reduce greenhouse gas emissions by up to 67pc from 2005 levels by 2035. Roughly 5,000 companies will be subject to the cap-and-trade system, covering about 15pc of Brazil's emissions, according to finance ministry estimates. The new market will go into effect over a six-year period in five phases. The first phase involves defining the rules that will govern the market, which can take up to two years. In the second phase, companies will be required to measure their emissions, and in the third phase report emissions and present a plan to monitor and reduce them. In the fourth phase, the trading market will begin operating and the first carbon allocation plan will go into effect. In the fifth and final phase, the market will be fully operational. As expected, the agriculture sector was excluded from the regulated market and will not have emissions-reductions targets. The law also exempts waste treatment companies, including sewage treatment and landfill operators if they can demonstrate the use of technologies that neutralize greenhouse gas emissions. The legislation also addresses regulations for the voluntary market, helping finance decarbonization projects in the agriculture and forestry sectors. Brazil has the potential to generate up to $100bn in revenues from the carbon market by 2030, according to a study by think tank ICC Brasil. Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Cost of government support for fossil fuels still high


21/11/24
News
21/11/24

Cost of government support for fossil fuels still high

London, 21 November (Argus) — The cost of government measures to support the consumption and production of fossil fuels dropped by almost third last year as energy prices declined from record highs in 2022, according to a new report published today by the OECD. But the level of fiscal support remained higher than the historical average despite government pledges to reduce carbon emissions. In an analysis of 82 economies, data from the OECD and the IEA found that government support for fossil fuels fell to an estimated $1.1 trillion in 2023 from $1.6 trillion a year earlier. Although energy prices were lower last year than in 2022, countries maintained various fiscal measures to both stimulate fossil fuel production and reduce the burden of high energy costs for consumers, the OECD said. The measures are in the form of direct payments by governments to individual recipients, tax concessions and price support. The latter includes "direct price regulation, pricing formulas, border controls or taxes, and domestic purchase or supply mandates", the OECD said. These government interventions come at a large financial cost and increase carbon emissions, undermining the net-zero transition, the report said. Of the estimated $1.1 trillion of support, direct transfers and tax concessions accounted for $514.1bn, up from $503.7bn in 2022. Transfers amounted to $269.8bn, making them more costly than tax concessions of $244.3bn. Some 90pc of the transfers were to support consumption by households and companies, the rest was to support producers. The residential sector benefited from a 22pc increase from a year earlier, and support to manufacturers and industry increased by 14pc. But the majority of fuel consumption measures are untargeted, and support largely does not land where it is needed, the OECD said. The "under-pricing" of fossil fuels amounted to $616.4bn last year, around half of the 2022 level, the report said. "Benchmark prices (based on energy supply costs) eased, particularly for natural gas, thereby decreasing the difference between the subsidised end-user prices and the benchmark prices," it said. In terms of individual fossil fuels, the fiscal cost of support for coal fell the most, to $27.7bn in 2023 from $43.5bn a year earlier. The cost of support for natural gas has grown steadily in recent years, amounting to $343bn last year compared with $144bn in 2018. The upward trend is explained by its characterisation as a transition fuel and the disruption of Russian pipeline supplies to Europe, the report said. By Alejandro Moreano and Tim van Gardingen Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Investment funds’ net long on Ice TTF reaches new high


21/11/24
News
21/11/24

Investment funds’ net long on Ice TTF reaches new high

London, 21 November (Argus) — Investment funds' net long TTF position on the Intercontinental Exchange (Ice) jumped to a new all-time high earlier this month, outstripping the previous record in late August. The latest weekly data from Ice show investment funds' net long TTF position shot up to a new record at just under 273TWh by 15 November, topping the previous all-time high of roughly 268TWh in the week ending 30 August , revised data show. After peaking in August, the position dropped to 192TWh on 20 September, and held broadly stable before jumping 33.6TWh in the week ending 25 October . TTF prices rose in the following two weeks, but funds trimmed their net long position to around 226TWh on 8 November ( see graph ). But in the most recent week of data from Ice, investment funds' net long position shot up to just under 273TWh by 15 November, a new record high. Over the same period of 8-15 November, The Argus TTF front-month contract rose by more than 9pc, and there were similarly large moves for the first-quarter 2025 and summer 2025 contracts. The calendar 2025 price was also up by 8pc ( see table ). Significant price volatility in recent trading sessions has also prompted Ice to increase margin rates by around 20pc on all contracts out to September 2025 , with smaller increases further down the curve. Austrian incumbent OMV announced this week Russia's Gazprom would halt its contractual supply from 16 November , prompting sizeable day-on-day price moves across Europe and possibly encouraging investment funds to go longer and capitalise on the volatility. But central European flows have changed only slightly since then, with roughly the same amount of Russian gas entering the region. Higher TTF prices have also caused LNG diversions from Asia to Europe in recent days, which reached double digits on 19 November . Such a large net long position suggests investment funds may still expect a tight European gas balance this winter. Record-low freight rates have brought the cost of shipping US LNG to Asia closer to the cost of the shorter US-Europe route, meaning European prices have to rise sufficiently high enough to offset this and close the inter-basin arbitrage again in order to attract uncommitted cargoes. Cold weather has also prompted EU firms to draw down storage stocks heavily so far this month . Aggregate EU withdrawals averaged just under 3 TWh/d on 1-15 November, four times the 756 GWh/d average for that period in 2018-22 and sharply contrasting the 965 GWh/d of net injections across the bloc on 1-15 November 2023. Unlike investment funds, the two other major categories of Ice market participant — commercial undertakings and investment/credit firms — boosted their net short positions by a combined 53TWh, leaving the latter with nearly 200TWh in net shorts, the highest since mid-September. Despite significant storage withdrawals, commercial undertakings ‘risk reduct' contracts — generally used for hedging — in the week to 15 November jumped by just under 30TWh to nearly 211TWh, the highest since 24 December 2021. Some of that increase may have been driven by a need to hedge the LNG cargoes diverted to Europe in recent weeks as European hub prices rose. A 9TWh increase in the net long position of commercial undertakings' other contracts slightly moderated the overall net short increase. The gross short and long positions of commercial undertakings totalled 1.95PWh, nearly twice as large as the investments funds' 646TWh and investment/credit firms' 421TWh combined. By Brendan A'Hearn Argus TTF prices 8-15 Nov €/MWh Dec-24 1Q25 Sum 25 Win 25 Cal 25 8-Nov 42.08 42.31 40.81 38.41 40.65 15-Nov 46.02 46.12 44.12 41.00 43.98 % change 9.4 9.0 8.1 6.7 8.2 Argus Net positions on ICE TTF TWh Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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