Demand, imports key to French supply security: RTE

Market: Electricity
16/03/23

A drop in electricity consumption paired with well-working interconnections has allowed France to avoid power cuts this winter, domestic transmission system operator (TSO) RTE said at its winter round-up press conference today.

France has seen a "favourable winter", although RTE's projections in September suggested that security of supply was at "high risk". The TSO did not activate its "Ecowatt red signal" — warning about potential power cuts — but it could have been triggered up to 12 times if consumption had not fallen and imports had not been strong.

Nuclear availability was consistent with RTE's central scenario and flows were not curtailed at France's border points, having peaked at as much as 15GW. If imports were limited to 7GW, as occurred in 2012, the TSO would have emitted five "Ecowatt orange signals" to alert that there was tension on the network, it said.

Power demand dropped by 9pc in October-February compared with historical averages, which is equivalent to 20TWh. But "the proportion of the decrease was unexpected", RTE's chairman Xavier Piechaczyk said. France saw higher-than-average temperatures last autumn, which allowed the start of the heating season to be delayed. But temperatures were below average in December and at the end of January, contributing to slightly higher power demand.

The industrial, residential and tertiary sectors all recorded consumption decreases, owing to voluntary demand cuts and high prices incentivising a reduction. Industrial demand cuts were less pronounced on warmer days compared with the residential sector, as industrial consumption is not weather sensitive, RTE said.

Looking ahead, RTE's projections for nuclear availability in winter 2023-24 are not "fundamentally changed", despite the discovery of faults on two of French utility EdF's reactors last week. "This announcement does not have the same impact as when the stress corrosion issues were first discovered at the end of 2021," RTE said.

The TSO does not expect the price signals that incentivise reduced power demand to weaken because of the European reform of the power market design, it told Argus. "France has lowered its consumption by more than some other European countries, yet its consumers are more protected by the state [and less exposed to market signals]," it said.

RTE is set to publish its summer outlook in May and its expectations for winter 2023-24 in the autumn.

By Tatiana Serova

Relative change to French weather-adjuster power demand (vs 2014-2019 average) %

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