US gas price volatility likely to continue

Market: Natural gas
28/03/23

The past 18 months have been a wild ride for natural gas prices, as well as for the bottom line of investors and companies that are subject to their gyrations.

Spot prices in production and demand centers of the US have broken volatility records in recent months, while producers have reversed their course on hedging as gas prices collapsed.

The next few years portend more of the same.

"I think volatility is here to stay for the foreseeable future," Citi analyst Paul Diamond told Argus. "The underlying issues causing that step change in the last 24 months are not going away."

If one measures volatility by the number of days an asset moves by more than 7pc in value, 2022 was the most volatile year for natural gas prices since at least the beginning of the shale era. In 2022, the price for day-ahead delivery at the US benchmark Henry Hub in Louisiana rose or fell by more than 7pc on 65 occasions, the most of any year since at least 2009, according to an Argus analysis.

So far, the Henry Hub has done so 21 times this year. At that rate, 2023 will be more volatile than 2022.

How volatility returned to gas markets

After the shale revolution of the 2000s brought cheap and efficient techniques for increasing domestic gas production, including horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing, or "fracking," US gas prices enjoyed a long decade of low volatility. On average, the US benchmark only moved by more than 7pc on 17 days/yr between 2009-2021 — about one-third the 2022 rate.

That period of relative price stability ended sometime around the fourth quarter of 2021 when prices rose on an unexpected increase in power demand and record-high LNG exports. Despite tight supplies and high prices, producers mostly stuck to their promises to investors to maintain capital discipline, declining to increase production at pace with demand.

Producers stuck to their script even when Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022, threatening gas supply to Europe and causing a global energy crisis in which overseas appetite for US gas soared, lifting prices even higher.

The prompt-month price — the price for delivery of gas every day in the following calendar month — for the Henry Hub in December 2021 averaged $3.86/mmBtu. In May 2022, the price was more than twice as high, at $8.16/mmBtu. It averaged over $7/mmBtu in subsequent months, peaking at $9.68/mmBtu on 22 August, the highest since 23 July 2008.

When the 2 Bcf/d (57mn m3/d) Freeport LNG export terminal in Texas went off line in June after a fire, record-high gas consumption kept prices afloat even as domestic supply instantly increased. When the consumption leveled off as cooling demand fell, however, prices began to fall, insulated from the overseas chaos by an absence of LNG export capacity. The price drop accelerated when the US experienced historically low heating demand in January and February, pushing inventories from a deficit to a surplus to the five-year average.

In the two months ended yesterday, the Henry Hub prompt-month price averaged $2.47/mmBtu.

Why volatility could be here to stay

While some of the volatility of recent months has been because of unforeseen events — the war in Ukraine, the fire at Freeport LNG, historically mild weather — much of the volatility to come is expected to arise because of structural uncertainty currently being built into the gas market.

One piece of that uncertainty is what price crude oil and gas will be fetching when LNG export terminals begin coming on line in late 2024 and beyond. For example, if oil prices are low and producers in the Permian respond by pulling back on drilling, that will reduce associated gas production, which could starve LNG terminals. Low gas prices could also reduce production in the Haynesville, which would be hard to make up for in the Marcellus and Utica shales, where pipeline takeaway capacity limits production growth.

If LNG terminals are delayed, prices could plunge as domestic supply races ahead of demand.

"As we add more LNG demand along the Gulf Coast, the timing between LNG facilities, the pipelines to feed them, and the production to meet the new demand all has to be in sync," BTU Analytics analyst Connor McLean told Argus. "If the timing slips for any of those pieces, we are likely to see the market react strongly until the other pieces catch up."

On top of the uncertainty, the steady retirement of coal-fired power plants has reduced the ability of electrical utilities to switch from coal to gas when supplies of one or the other are constrained. And while gas consumption continues to rise, regional opposition to the construction of new pipelines has led to a slowdown in expansions of pipeline capacity.

The increased reliance on gas can make market participants react more strongly to price signals than they would have otherwise.

By Julian Hast

Related news posts

Argus illuminates the markets by putting a lens on the areas that matter most to you. The market news and commentary we publish reveals vital insights that enable you to make stronger, well-informed decisions. Explore a selection of news stories related to this one.

News

04/04/25

Tariffs and their impact larger than expected: Powell

New York, 4 April (Argus) — Federal Reserve chairman Jerome Powell said today tariff increases unveiled by US president Donald Trump will be "significantly larger" than expected, as will the expected economic fallout. "The same is likely to be true of the economic effects, which will include higher inflation and slower growth," Powell said today at the Society for Advancing Business Editing and Writing's annual conference in Arlington, Virginia. The central bank will continue to carefully monitor incoming data to assess the outlook and the balance of risks, he said. "We're well positioned to wait for greater clarity before considering any adjustments to our policy stance," Powell added. "It is too soon to say what will be the appropriate path for monetary policy." As of 1pm ET today, Fed funds futures markets are pricing in 29pc odds of a quarter point cut by the Federal Reserve at its next meeting in May and 99pc odds of at least a quarter point rate cut in June. Earlier in the day the June odds were at 100pc. The Fed chairman spoke after trillions of dollars in value were wiped off stock markets around the world and crude prices plummeted following Trump's rollout of across-the-board tariffs earlier in the week. Just before his appearance, Trump pressed Powell in a post on his social media platform to "STOP PLAYING POLITICS!" and cut interest rates without delay. A closely-watched government report showed the US added a greater-than-expected 228,000 jobs in March , showing hiring was picking up last month. By Stephen Cunningham Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Find out more

News

Mexico, Canada sidestep latest Trump tariffs: Update

03/04/25

News

03/04/25

Mexico, Canada sidestep latest Trump tariffs: Update

Adds Canada reaction Mexico City, 3 April (Argus) — US president Donald Trump's sweeping tariff measures largely spared Mexico and Canada from additional penalties, as the US-Mexico-Canada free trade agreement (USMCA) will continue to exempt most commerce, including Mexico's energy exports. According to Trump's tariff announcement on Wednesday , all foreign imports into the US will be subject to a minimum 10pc tax starting on 5 April, with levels as high as 34pc for China and 20pc for the EU. Mexico and Canada are the US' closest trading partners and have seen tariffs imposed and then postponed several times this year, but remained mostly exempt from Trump's "reciprocal" tariffs. Energy and "certain minerals that are not available in the US" imported from all other countries also will be exempt from the tariffs. Trump also did not reimpose punitive tariffs on energy and other imports from Canada and Mexico. All products covered by the USMCA, which include energy commodities, are exempt as well. Yet steel and aluminum, cars, trucks and auto parts from Mexico and Canada remain subject to separate tariffs. Steel and aluminum imports are subject to 25pc, in effect since 12 March. The 25pc tariff on all imported cars and trucks will go into effect on Thursday, whereas a 25pc tax on auto parts will go into effect on 3 May. Mexico's president Claudia Sheinbaum this morning emphasized the "good relationship" and "mutual respect" between Mexico and the US, which she said was key to Trump's decision to prioritize the USMCA over potential further tariffs on Mexican imports. "So far, we have managed to reach a relatively more privileged position when it comes to these tariffs," Sheinbaum said. "Many of our industries are now exempt from tariffs. We aim to reach a better position regarding steel, aluminum and auto parts exports, too." The Mexican peso strengthened by 1.5pc against the US dollar in the wake of the tariff announcement, to Ps19.96/$1 by late morning on Thursday from Ps20.25/$1 on Wednesday. Mexico has not placed any tariffs on imports from the US, which may have eliminated the need for the US to reciprocate with tariffs. "In contrast to what will apply to 185 global economies, Mexico remains exempt from reciprocal tariffs," Mexico's economy minister Marcelo Ebrard said. Mexico exported 500,000 b/d of crude to the US last year, making the US by far the most important export market for the nation's commodity. Mexico also imports the majority of its motor fuels and LPG from the US. If US won't lead, Canada will: Carney To the north, Canada's prime minister says the US' latest trade actions will "rupture" the global economy. "The global economy is fundamentally different today than it was yesterday," said prime minister Mark Carney on Thursday while announcing retaliatory tariffs on auto imports from the US. Canada is matching the US with 25pc tariffs on all vehicles imported from the US that are not compliant with the USMCA, referred to as CUSMA in Canada. But unlike the US tariffs, which took effect Thursday, Canada's will not include auto parts. Automaker Stellantis has informed Unifor Local 444 that it is shutting down the Windsor Assembly Plant in Ontario for two weeks starting on 7 April, with the primary driver being Trump's tariffs. The closure will affect 3,600 workers. Trump on 2 April unveiled a chart of dozens of countries the US is targeting with new tariffs, but that lengthy list may also represent opportunity for Canada and Mexico, who have already been dealing with US trade action. "The world is waking up today to a reality that Canada has been living with for months," Canadian Chamber of Commerce president Candace Laing said, a reality which Carney views as an opportunity for his country. "Canada is ready to take a leadership role in building a coalition of like-minded countries who share our values," said Carney. "If the United States no longer wants to lead, Canada will." By Cas Biekmann and Brett Holmes Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

News

Trump to 'stand firm' on tariffs as markets crash

03/04/25

News

03/04/25

Trump to 'stand firm' on tariffs as markets crash

Washington, 3 April (Argus) — President Donald Trump does not intend to back down from his plan for sweeping import tariffs that have already caused a sell-off in global equity markets and some commodities, administration officials say. The tariffs — which will start at 10pc for most imports on 5 April before steeper country-specific tariffs take effect on 9 April, with exceptions for some energy and mineral imports — have caused key stock indexes to drop by as much as 5pc, with even larger declines in crude futures, as investors brace for lower growth and a higher chance of a recession. Trump earlier today defended the tariffs, as he prepared to leave the White House for a dinner tonight at a golf tournament at one of his resorts in Florida. "THE OPERATION IS OVER! THE PATIENT LIVED, AND IS HEALING," Trump wrote in a social media post before major stock markets opened. Trump's cabinet has downplayed the short-term price effect of the tariffs, which they say will boost economic growth in the US and cause a resurgence in domestic manufacturing. US commerce secretary Howard Lutnick said he does not think there is "any chance" that Trump will rescind the tariffs, and said Trump will only begin to work on new trade deals once a country has "really, really changed their ways" on trade practices. "Trump is going to stand firm because he is reordering global trade," Lutnick said today in an interview with CNN. "Make no mistake about it, America has been exploited, and he is done allowing America to be exploited." Other administration officials have suggested a greater potential for lower tariffs in the near-term. US treasury secretary Scott Bessent has encouraged world leaders to "take a deep breath" and not to "panic" because the tariff rates that Trump announced were a "ceiling" that might come down, so long as there was no retaliation. "Don't immediately retaliate, let's see where this goes, because if you retaliate, that's how we get escalation," Bessent said on 2 April during interview on Fox News. The tariffs have caused bipartisan backlash on Capitol Hill, but so far legislative action has been symbolic and unlikely to become law. The US Senate, in a bipartisan vote on 2 April, approved a joint resolution that would end the justification Trump has used to put tariffs on Canada. US senators Chuck Grassley (R-Iowa) and Maria Cantwell (D-Washington) introduced a bill today to eliminate most new presidential tariffs after 60 days without approval by the US Congress. Democrats say the tariffs will force consumers to pay far more on everyday goods, with revenue offsetting Republican plans to provide more than $5 trillion in tax cuts. "Donald Trump is using tariffs in the dumbest way imaginable. In fact, Donald Trump slapped tariffs on penguins and not on Putin," US Senate minority leader Chuck Schumer (D-New York) said today, in reference to Trump's decision to put a 10pc tariff on an island populated only with penguins. Trump has claimed his country-specific tariffs are "reciprocal" even though they have no relation to the tariffs each country charges on US imports. Instead, Trump's tariffs were calculated based on a universal equation that is set at half of the country's trade deficit with the US, divided by the country's imports from the US, with a minimum tariff rate of 10pc. Major US trading partners are preparing for retaliatory tariffs. Canada's prime minister Mark Carney said he would respond to Trump's tariffs on automobiles, which took effect today, by "matching the US approach" and imposing a 25pc tariff on auto imports that do not comply with the US-Mexico-Canada free trade agreement. China said it was preparing unspecified countermeasures to US tariffs that would be set at 54pc. Trump's cabinet today dismissed the market reaction to the tariffs. Stock markets are going through a "short-term adjustment" but the tariffs will ultimately result in more growth and additional investments, US Small Business Administration administrator Kelly Loeffler said today in an interview on Fox News "The gravy train is over for the globalist elites," said Loeffler, who previously was a top executive at US exchange operator ICE. By Chris Knight Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

News

LNG faces limited direct disruption from US tariffs

03/04/25

News

03/04/25

LNG faces limited direct disruption from US tariffs

London, 3 April (Argus) — New US trade tariffs announced on 2 April are unlikely to cause any direct disruption to the LNG market because global LNG demand has become more inelastic in the past three years. But market participants warned of recessionary pressure and indirect effects on gas demand. The key recipients of US LNG — the EU, Japan and South Korea, for example — may be considering responding to the new US trade policy with retaliatory tariffs, among other measures. But these are unlikely to include levies on US LNG imports, market participants said, which would limit any direct disruption on LNG trade flows in the Atlantic basin. Europe has become much more reliant on LNG imports after losing the bulk of Russian pipeline imports. Europe last year imported 45pc of its LNG from the US, according to ship-tracking data from analytics firm Vortexa. And the EU would need quick LNG imports to replace Russian supply and fill its underground storage facilities this summer, with its combined gas inventory level at 33pc on 31 March, according to transparency platform Aggregated Gas Storage Inventory. Traditional Asian importers such as Japan, South Korea and Taiwan are likely to seek an engagement approach other than direct retaliatory tariffs on US imports. US LNG purchases in the past often have been a means by which to reduce countries' trade surplus with the US. South Korea's energy minister expressed the country's interest in the 20mn t/yr Alaska LNG project in a visit in late March , while Taiwan's CPC signed an initial agreement for the project, according to Taiwan's Ministry of Economic Affairs . Emerging LNG importer Vietnam was considering reducing import taxes on US LNG to 2pc from the present 5pc, according to state-owned PV Gas. The possibility of increasing US LNG purchases in the future also may be a key element in potential trade negotiations with the US aimed at reducing the 46pc tariffs on imports from Vietnam announced on 2 April, according to market participants. LNG trade flows already had been reshuffled before the latest round of US tariffs, in light of China's retaliatory tariff of 15pc on US LNG imports. China halted LNG imports from the US in early February , by reselling its contracted US offtake in other markets and replacing it with cargoes of other origin, if needed. But the tariffs have destabilised economies around the world, particularly those with large trade surpluses with the US, which are likely to reduce gas and LNG demand in different geographies. Tariffs pose direct risks for US LNG projects US tariffs on steel and aluminum imports, imposed on 12 March, present an immediate risk for US LNG developers, particularly for the five projects currently under construction and the six others expected to reach final investment decisions in 2025. Metals represent up to 30pc of the cost of building an LNG export plant. Depending on the project's size, an LNG terminal could cost $5bn-$25bn, with steel used for pipelines, tanks and other structural frameworks. Although facilities can use some domestic supplies for construction, higher prices could result in delays to construction and final investment decisions in planned liquefaction projects ( see table ). Delays to the planned 18.1mn t/yr Golden Pass LNG facility have already underscored how rising costs can upend construction timelines. Zachry, a lead contractor in engineering, procurement and construction work for the facility, filed for bankruptcy last May and exited the project. Pandemic-related inflation and supply chain delays have caused costs to surge by $2.4bn from the original $9.25bn contract, the firm said . Golden Pass, which once targeted first LNG in the second half of last year, now expects its first production in late 2025 or early 2026 . NextDecade's 17.4mn t/yr Rio Grande LNG project in south Texas had bought only 69pc of supplies for trains 1-2 and only 33pc for train 3 by late February, making the three-train project particularly vulnerable to higher steel prices. Projects that are closer to completion may face less inflationary pressure. Equipment and materials needed for the seven-train expansion at Cheniere's Corpus Christi stage 3 were delivered, according to the firm in February . And 34 of 36 liquefaction trains at Venture Global's Plaquemines facility have been delivered on site, with the two remaining trains expected to arrive by the end of March, Venture global said last month . US LNG projects in pipeline Project Capacity ( mn t/yr ) Expected start/FID Under construction Plaquemines 19.2 2025 Corpus Christi stage 3 12.0 2025 Golden Pass 18.1 2026 Rio Grande 17.6 2027 Port Arthur 13.5 2027 Waiting for final investment decision Delfin FLNG 1 13.2 mid-2025 Texas LNG 4.0 2025 Calcasieu Pass 2 28.0 mid-2025 Corpus Christi train 8-9 3.3 2025 Louisiana LNG 16.5 mid-2025 Cameron train 4 6.8 mid-2025 — Argus Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

News

South Korea’s GS Energy seeks term LNG from 2028

03/04/25

News

03/04/25

South Korea’s GS Energy seeks term LNG from 2028

Singapore, 3 April (Argus) — South Korean private-sector firm GS Energy's subsidiary GS Energy Trading Singapore is seeking LNG deliveries starting from 1 January 2028, over a 5-15 year period. The first round of offers will be due on 25 April and the second to close on 1 August later this year. The firm has requested volumes of up to 0.81mn t/yr in 2028 and up to 0.97mn t/yr from 2029 onwards. This is equivalent to around 13-14 cargoes/yr in 2028 and about 16-17 cargoes/yr from 2029 onwards, assuming an average LNG cargo size of 60,000t. The cargoes will be delivered to the country's 10.8mn t/yr Boryeong terminal, which is owned by power producers SK E&S and GS Energy. The firm has also specified for offers to be linked to Brent or a hybrid of Brent and Henry Hub. South Korean utility Korea South-East Power in June 2024 also signed an agreement with TotalEnergies for a five-year term delivery of up to 500,000 t/yr of LNG to South Korea from 2027. Meanwhile, state-owned gas incumbent Kogas is expected to operate with a smaller pool of long-term LNG supplies from 2025, with the government granting it more flexibility in its procurement strategy. Long-term contracted supply volumes may typically be priced at a higher premium, and could be deemed as a small price for buyers to secure supply security, traders said. By Naomi Ong Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Business intelligence reports

Get concise, trustworthy and unbiased analysis of the latest trends and developments in oil and energy markets. These reports are specially created for decision makers who don’t have time to track markets day-by-day, minute-by-minute.

Learn more