UK releases further detail on CCS plans

Market: Biomass, Electricity, Emissions, Hydrogen
30/03/23

The UK government today set out further information on its plans for carbon capture and storage (CCS), including seeking applications to establish two new CCS clusters.

As as part of a co-ordinated net zero strategy day, the government called for applications under its so-called Track 2 scheme, which aims to establish two further CCS clusters in the UK by 2030. The HyNet and East Coast clusters were selected in October 2021 under the Track 1 process, for deployment by the mid 2020s.

Track 2 applicants must either have a CO2 storage licence or have applied for one, and they must have "relevant agreements and commitments in place" with capture projects, the government said. Criteria for eligible Track 2 capture projects have not yet been set out.

The Acorn and Viking projects are "best placed to deliver on the government's objectives", the government said, though its call for applicants will remain open until 28 April. Acorn, in Scotland, missed out in the Track 1 scheme, but the government's Scottish Affairs Committee recently called for its approval. Viking, off the east coast of England, is targeting a start date of 2027 and a capture rate of 10mn t/yr of emissions by 2030. It is led by UK independent Harbour Energy and partners include Associated British Ports, power producer West Burton Energy, refiner Phillips 66 and trading firm Vitol's power plant subsidiary VPI.

The government also today said eight carbon capture projects have progressed to a "negotiations project list" of the Track 1 programme. These include three industrial carbon capture, two energy from waste, one power with carbon capture, usage and storage (CCUS) and two hydrogen projects. London also promised a forthcoming "updated investment roadmap on CCUS, summarising government policy and funding", and "a vision for the UK CCUS sector to raise confidence and improve visibility for investors".

The UK aims to capture 20mn-30mn t/yr of CO2 by 2030 and estimates that up to 100 stores may be needed to hit these targets.

Beccs model progresses

The UK also today clarified its preferred approach to support bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (Beccs), and utility Drax said it will start formal discussions with London to move forward its Beccs project in the country.

Drax — which last week paused its Beccs plans, calling for clarity on government support — now "stands ready to progress [its] £2bn investment programme and deliver this critical project for the UK by 2030," chief executive Will Gardiner said today.

The UK government plans to use a dual contracts for difference (CfD) business model to support Beccs. The model combines a CfD for low-carbon electricity generation and one for carbon captured. The policy has not been finalised, and the government said today it will continue development and to engage with interested parties. The biomass strategy, expected by the end of June, will set out sustainability considerations for Beccs, it said.

By Georgia Gratton

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30/12/24

Viewpoint: Bearish year ahead for NOx markets

Houston, 30 December (Argus) — The Cross-State Air Pollution Rule (CSAPR) NOx allowance markets will likely face a bearish year in 2025, as the incoming administration of president-elect Donald Trump creates uncertainty over the fate of the latest federal regulation to curb emissions. The US Supreme Court halted implementation of the US Environmental Protection Agency's (EPA) "good neighbor" plan in June with a nationwide stay. This left an already stunted regulation to cut NOx emissions, a precursor to harmful ground-level ozone, obsolete for the foreseeable future. EPA finalized a plan in March 2023 to help downwind states meet the 2015 national air quality standards by setting tighter ozone season NOx caps on power plants covered by CSPAR as well as new limits for industrial facilities in more than 20 upwind states. But by the time the justices issued the stay, the number of covered states had already shrunk by more than half because of lower-court orders pausing implementation in 12 states. Prices for seasonal NOx allowances have flatlined and the market has been illiquid over much of 2024 because of uncertainty over how numerous legal challenges against the good neighbor plan would play out. Argus has assessed Group 2 allowances at $775/short ton (st) and Group 3 allowances at a record low $1,250/st since January. This could change, albeit at a slow pace, because EPA finalized an interim rule in November to comply with the nationwide stay. Power plants that had been covered by the good neighbor plan are now under less-stringent NOx budgets tied to older air quality standards, and the 10 states that had been participating in the Group 3 market prior to the stay are now reshuffled into Group 2 and a separate 12-state "expanded" Group 2 market. All that remains is… uncertainty In the new year, the market will wait to see how the Trump administration will deal with the good neighbor plan and the associated legal challenges in the US Court of Appeals for the DC Circuit and the US Supreme Court. Because of the stay, there is no hurry for the new administration to address the legal woes, and it is unlikely the DC Circuit will soon rule on the legality of EPA's rejection of state ozone reduction plans. The Trump EPA, following precedent of prior administrations, will likely ask the court to pause litigation until it decides whether to continue defending the plan, according to Jeff Holmstead, assistant administrator at the agency under former president George W Bush. The agency will likely revoke the plan at some point and replace it with a rule that is more "modest" and would not significantly affect allowance prices, he said. The EPA under Trump could ultimately decide that upwind states do not significantly contribute to interstate pollution, reversing a determination that has underpinned the good neighbor plan. That could lead to downwind states asking the agency to address specific sources that contribute to their air quality problems, said Carrie Jenks, executive director of Harvard Law School's Environmental and Energy Law Program. The Supreme Court is also hearing a case to decide the proper court venue for Clean Air Act disputes, which involves the good neighbor plan. The Trump administration likely will agree with various states and industry groups that say EPA's rejections of individual state plans are not a "nationally applicable" action and must be litigated in the regional circuit courts, but the Supreme Court is likely to continue the venue case, Jenks said. Oral arguments will likely be held early next year. It is also unclear how Lee Zeldin, Trump's pick to lead EPA will affect the regulation. Zeldin is a moderate, given his history, and will likely "not want to impose significant new burdens on fossil fuel power plants", Holmstead said. Trump's plans to downsize the federal bureaucracy could also affect future rulemakings, according to Jenks. "Nobody really knows what's going to happen," she said. As a result, market activity is likely to remain limited in the coming months as participants await legal and regulatory clarity. In addition, markets are likely to be oversupplied now that power plants are under lighter NOx caps. Most states in the seasonal NOx markets were well below their limits for the 2024 ozone season, despite a 9.2pc increase in cumulative emissions in the expanded Group 2. EPA will also allow some power plants to convert vintage 2021-23 Group 3 allowances to Group 2 or expanded Group 2 allowances, adding to supply. With low demand and a potential oversupply, seasonal NOx allowances could see prices fall . By Ida Balakrishna Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Viewpoint: Carbon offsets face bumpy road

30/12/24

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30/12/24

Viewpoint: Carbon offsets face bumpy road

Houston, 30 December (Argus) — Carbon offset credits from California's cap-and-trade program will meet reduced compliance demand next year, while program updates promise to upend market dynamics. Each carbon offset under the joint California-Quebec carbon market, known as the Western Climate Initiative (WCI) equals 1 metric tonne of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from sources not covered by either cap-and-trade program. California and Quebec allow covered entities to use offsets from either program to meet their annual GHG emissions obligations. But market regulators are eyeing changes for carbon offsets in Quebec that may have wider impacts. Quebec is considering phasing out carbon offsets by 2030 as part of an ongoing rulemaking for a more-stringent program. While the province has not shared its final approach, regulators have floated in workshops either limiting offset use to 4pc of overall obligations for 2027-29 or putting offsets under the program's emissions cap. Quebec's Environment Ministry allows for covered entities to utilize carbon offsets for up to 8pc of outstanding emissions, including from California. Meanwhile, the California Air Resources Board (CARB) allows for covered entities to use CCOs for 4pc of obligations through 2025 and for 6pc starting in 2026, though at least half must come from projects that provide direct environmental benefits to the state (DEBs). After 2031, Quebec is mulling transitioning to a government carbon offset purchase-and-retire system, but it remains unclear how that might function — and what it means for the longevity of carbon offset projects in Quebec, said Joey Hoekstra, a policy associate with International Emissions Trading Association (IETA). "That mechanism and how that is going to look like and what that will be, there has not been a lot of details," he said. Quebec plans to finalize its program changes early in 2025 , with implementation in the spring. The move away from carbon offsets has implications for California's program, ClimeCo chief operating officer Derek Six said. "Quebec is an outlet for the non-DEBs credits in California," Six said. The province issues very few carbon offsets under its own protocols, just under 1.8mn since 2014, according to provincial data published in November. California, which allows for projects to generate credits in and outside the state, issued nearly 13.8mn CCOs in 2023 alone, with just under 9.6mn from non-DEBs projects. The CCOs without DEBs are an oversupplied market, said Six, compared with the limited number of projects that generate the more expensive DEBs credits in California. Argus last assessed California Carbon Offsets (CCOs) seller-guaranteed offsets at $14.60/t, CCOs with a three-year invalidation at $14/t and CCOs with an eight-year invalidation at $13.90/t on 20 December. CCOs with direct environmental benefits to the state (DEBS) currently trade at an $15.50/t premium to non-DEBs CCOs. In issuances over the past five years, non-DEBs have formed the bulk of credits distributed by CARB, with DEBS-eligible credits only going as high as 42.3pc of total issuances this year. Covered emitters in Quebec used 13.2mn non-DEBs CCOs to meet their 2021-2023 compliance obligations, along with roughly 75,000 CCOs with DEBS. Provincial entities used just under 366,400 carbon offsets generated in Quebec for compliance. California emitters utilized 13.2mn non-DEBs CCOs and nearly 13mn DEBs CCOs for their 2021-2023 compliance. Washington, which hopes to link its cap-and-trade program with the WCI as early as 2026, is unlikely to stopgap the shortfall in demand for non-DEBs credits once it allows outside credits, instead feeding further demand for DEBS CCOs. The state allows participants to use carbon offsets for 5pc of its emissions and a further 3pc from projects on federally recognized tribal lands over 2024-2026, reduced to 4pc and 2pc, respectively, for 2027-2049. The state's ongoing linkage rulemaking would allow the participants to use offsets from within a linked jurisdiction, which will include CCOs with DEBs and Quebec offsets. Washington's cap-and-invest, which started in 2023, has generated few offsets of its own so far — just over 310,000t, all from ODS projects. But that may change in the short term, Six said. Project developers have likely been holding off over this year until voters rejected an effort to repeal the state's program in November. "I would not be surprised if you all of a sudden see a bit of a flood of project listings from people who had Washington ODS material," he said. Washington is also conducting a rulemaking to increase the variety of projects resulting in carbon offsets credits. Ecology plans to implement these changes in summer 2025. But carbon offsets remain unlikely to be much of a cost-saving measure for compliance in Washington, Six said. Washington, unlike California or Quebec, puts them under its annual emissions cap and removes allowances in line with offset use. By Denise Cathey Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Viewpoint: Wood chip supply may tighten in 2025

27/12/24

News

27/12/24

Viewpoint: Wood chip supply may tighten in 2025

London, 27 December (Argus) — Wood chip raw material availability has grown tighter in Europe in the past couple of years and is expected to remain so in 2025, but its impact on the spot market has been limited by lower-than-typical overall demand in the period. A stronger consumption outlook by energy and other industrial segments at existing and new plants may put the market to test in 2025. In the Nordics, wood chip supply availability was tight this year in the wake of a cut-off in Russian and Belarus supply following sanctions in 2022 and harvesting restrictions imposed by national and EU regulations. A slowdown in sawmilling also contributed to a steady tightening of wood chip supply, particularly in Finland, who's imports rose year on year in 2024 as companies struggled with increased domestic wood chip prices as raw material prices held high. Swedish hardwood chip imports over the first nine months of 2024 held considerably higher than long term averages but were lower when compared with a year prior ( see chart ). This was mainly owing to a year-on-year a drop in receipts from Uruguay, Germany and Portugal. Swedish end-users struggled to meet demand from local sources that at most times were uncompetitive with chips from abroad. Swedish forest industry group Sodra, located in southern Sweden, raised the prices of its wood to historical highs earlier in the year and also expects 2025 to be a "challenging" year. Wood chip supply in the Baltics also was tightened by a slowdown in sawmilling that weighed on sawmill residue supply and is not expected to improve in the near term. But forestry feedstock was available, and prices of fuel wood harvested in Estonia's state and private-owned forests edged down on the year in January-October, following record-high prices in 2022, data from Estonian state forestry agency RMK and private forestry centre Eramets show, although prices were still well above long-term averages ( see graph ). This scarcity has yet to have a market impact as end-users still are well supplied with near capacity stocks. End-users delayed deliveries where they could or put deliveries into storage over October-November 2024. Most northern European utilities switched on their wood chip-fired boilers later than usual as warmer weather pared heating demand. Outages further pressured on the demand side, with Swedish utility Stockholm Exergi's 190MW Vartan 1 having undergone an outage of nearly six months that is scheduled to end on 27 January 2025. Although consumption picked up from late November as temperatures dropped, the delay in wood chip burn for heat generation has left end-users with ample stocks. But a structural lack of raw materials probably will tighten wood chip supply once consumption picks up in the first half of next year on forecast colder weather. Lower temperatures forecast over the next month should result in quicker stock withdrawals and encourage spot demand. For example, overnight temperatures in Oslo, Norway, are forecast to average minus 5.5°C, about 0.5°C below seasonal norms in the 45 days to 9 February, Speedwell Weather data show. Elsewhere, in Poland, supply availability of biomass may tighten, if the draft regulation on requirements for domestic energy wood put forward by the government in July is approved. But it is likely that the restrictions will be softened in the final draft by the ministry, following public consultation in the preceding months, market sources said. Looking forward, new projects across northwest Europe probably will support import demand. While a 13-month outage that began on 12 December 2023 at Gazel Energie's 150MW wood chip-fired Provence 4 power plant weakened wood chip consumption this year, it is scheduled to resume operations on 5 January 2025. Gazel Energie reached a deal with the French government to supply power from the plant over the coming eight years, which may bolster imports. French hardwood imports more than halved in January-September this year compared with a year earlier. Elsewhere, in Finland, energy company Joensuu Biocoal is set to begin commercial operations at the 60,000 t/yr heat-treated biomass production plant in the first quarter of next year. Paired with fresh demand from new projects planned for the first quarter of 2025, the deficit of supply seen in the woody feedstock market this year probably will continue into 2025, tightening wood chip availability once consumption picks up. By Hannah Adler Swedish imports of hardwood chips '000t Estonia raw material prices €/m3 Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Viewpoint: California-Quebec carbon faces murky 2025

27/12/24

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27/12/24

Viewpoint: California-Quebec carbon faces murky 2025

Houston, 27 December (Argus) — The joint California-Quebec climate market, known as the Western Climate Initiative (WCI), is on tenterhooks going into 2025, stymied by rulemaking delays but on the cusp of a more mature phase. Both California and Quebec are eyeing more-stringent future programs and have floated a series of changes over the past year and a half designed to achieve those goals. The California Air Resources Board (CARB) is considering moving its program's mandate from the present 2030 target of a 40pc reduction in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, compared with 1990 levels, to a 48pc reduction to keep the state on target to meet its 2045 goal of net-zero emissions. In line with this increased ambition, CARB will need to remove at least 180mn metric tonnes (t) of allowances from the 2026-2030 auction and allocation annual budgets to start with, and up to 265mn t in total from the program budgets from 2026-2045. CARB has floated other changes , including toughening corporate relationship disclosure requirements, increasing the program's cost-containment allowance price tiers and updating a portion of the program's carbon offset protocols. Quebec has considered removing 17.5mn t of allowances, which correspond to carbon offset uses for compliance in the province over 2013-2020. The Quebec Environmental Ministry proposed to address this by removing these allowances from the province's 2025-2030 auction budgets in a November 2023 workshop. Quebec is also mulling changing the current three-year compliance period to align with statutory 2030 and 2050 GHG targets. But this a move that California, which had discussed similar compliance period changes in April , has not revisited since. Quebec is considering tapering the limit for carbon offset use for compliance in the province by 2030 and transitioning over to a provincial reduction purchase mechanism in 2031, although regulators have not gone in-depth on how a replacement system would function. The WCI rulemakings have been marked by a series of delays over this year, pushing past projections from the end of last year that it would finalize program changes by the second half of 2024. Quebec, which was set to deliver a draft of program amendments in September, rescheduled to early 2025, with implementation expected in spring 2025. While the regulation was nearly complete in late September, the Quebec Environmental Ministry chose to postpone, since it cannot publish before California, said Jean-Yves Benoit, the agency's director general of carbon regulation and emissions data. CARB has signaled it intends to publish its package of rulemaking amendments in early 2025. The agency on 19 December confirmed it expects to "complete and release the regulatory package for a 45-day public comment period" in early 2025 but did not explain the delay. The agency may be waiting for a formal extension of the cap-and-trade program when the legislature resumes on 6 January. California lawmakers have given CARB explicit authority to utilize a cap-and-trade system to reduce GHG emissions out to 2030. CARB maintains it has authority to operate a cap-and-trade program past 2030, but program participants have stressed the need for formal certainty around the program to aid future planning. CARB will begin invoking the post-2030 budgets starting in 2028 for the program's advance auctions. The various delays have compressed the timelines California and Quebec must achieve their statutory target ambitions, making 2025 a potentially pivotal year. By Denise Cathey Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Viewpoint: Pellet boiler sales to drop in 2025

27/12/24

News

27/12/24

Viewpoint: Pellet boiler sales to drop in 2025

London, 27 December (Argus) — Sales of pellet-fired boilers and stoves for residential consumption are set to fall in 2025, after reaching record highs in 2024, partly because of government subsidies in Austria and Germany. The Austrian government has offered subsidies of up to €18,000 ($18,800) towards the price of a pellet stove or boiler — around 75pc of the cost of the appliance. The subsidies have been in place for the past two years, with the aim of incentivising households to switch away from fossil fuels. Low-income consumers are able to qualify for a subsidy of up to 100pc of the cost of a stove or boiler. This pushed up Austrian new boiler purchases to a record high of 19,181 in January-November, leading to expectations that full-year sales will surpass 2022 full-year sales of 21,629, figures from industry association ProPellets Austria show. Austrian pellet consumption is expected to reach 1.4mn t in 2024, well above the 1.2 mn t sold a year earlier. But Austrian elections earlier this year have resulted in a new and more conservative coalition government taking office, which will likely alter the subsidy scheme and reduce the subsidies' value. Coalition negotiations are currently ongoing. Several customer registrations for the subsidy scheme are still being finalised, so these buyers will likely purchase their boilers using the subsidies in the new year, according to ProPellets Austria data. This means boiler sales will probably be above the long-term average next year but below 2024 sales. Germany has launched a similar subsidy scheme, covering up to 70pc of the cost of a boiler. Wood pellet exports out of the country decreased by 139,705t on the year to 512,980t in January-September, customs data show, suggesting increased local demand. Wood pellet consumption in Switzerland is also expected to be stronger year on year, at 470,000t this year compared with 416,197t in 2023, according to wood pellet association ProPellets Switzerland data and projections. Meanwhile, pellet demand from the Italian and French markets has decreased on the year as the consumer base in those countries has declined. Italian and French households are not using pellet-fired stoves or boilers for their heating needs as much as they did in the past. And several buyers in Italy and France were still relying on stocks carried over from the previous year, as mild weather reduced consumption that year. Italian household pellet consumption fell to an estimated 2.2mn-2.4mn t in 2024 from around 3mn t/yr a year earlier, and this has weighed on pellet trading activity with pellet producers in the Baltic region — one of the main suppliers to the Italian market. Higher transport costs made it unprofitable to import pellets from the Baltic — which is over 700-800km away from Italy. And the cost of raw materials in the Baltic region increased this year, meaning pellets from the region were outpriced by pellets from other markets. Italian buyers are now heavily reliant on cheaper Brazilian pellets, which has also weighed on imports from other countries. Italy imported 262,245t from Brazil in January-September, up from 186,770t over the same period in 2023, the latest customs data show. This trend could continue well into 2025, with Brazil becoming an increasingly influential sourcing country for Europe. Danish imports from Brazil rose to 77,375t in January-November 2024 from just 1,110t a year earlier, customs data show. By Marta Imarisio Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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