Florida Gulf ports remain closed after Idalia

Market: Crude oil, Fertilizers
31/08/23

Florida ports on the US Gulf coast from Fort Myers to Panama City remained closed as of 11am ET Wednesday after Hurricane Idalia made landfall the day before.

The ports are awaiting confirmation from the US Coast Guard and Army Corps of Engineers to ensure the harbors are safe to transit, a port agent said.

On the Atlantic coast, the Georgia ports of Savannah and Brunswick and the North Carolina port of Wilmington also remained closed pending surveys from the Coast Guard and Army Corps of Engineers, according to the port agent.

The port of Charleston, South Carolina, and Florida ports from Canaveral to Fernandina were fully open as of 10:30am ET after the Coast Guard set them at condition Zulu on Tuesday evening.

Tropical storm conditions were forecast to continue across eastern North Carolina through Thursday evening, according to the US National Hurricane Center. Idalia was about 85 miles southeast of Cape Lookout, North Carolina, with maximum sustained winds of 60mph as of 11am ET Thursday.

By Tray Swanson

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15/05/25

IEA sees slightly better oil demand outlook

London, 15 May (Argus) — The IEA has nudged up its global oil demand growth forecasts for this year and 2026, citing better macroeconomic forecasts and the effects of lower oil prices. In its latest Oil Market Report (OMR), published today, the Paris-based watchdog raised its projected increase in oil consumption by 20,000 b/d to 740,000 b/d in 2025, bringing overall demand to 103.9mn b/d. It increased its oil demand growth forecast for 2026 by 70,000 b/d to 760,000 b/d. In its previous OMR the IEA cut its oil demand forecasts for 2025 by 310,000 b/d after the US' announcement of an array of import levies in April. But the IEA said today the tariff supply shock appeared less severe than initially implied, pointing to subsequent US trade arrangements with the UK and China. US talks with other countries continue. "Subsequent pauses, concessions, exemptions and negotiations are likely to attenuate the levies' permanence and economic impact," the IEA said. But it said policy uncertainty continued to weigh on consumer and business sentiment, and it sees oil consumption growth slowing to 650,000 b/d between now until the end of 2025, from 990,000 b/d in the first quarter of the year. Its demand growth forecast for 2025 is 320,000 b/d lower than at the start of the year. The IEA increased its global oil supply growth forecast by 380,000 b/d to 1.61mn b/d in 2025, with almost all the rise accounted for by the Saudi-led unwinding of Opec+ cuts. It nudged its oil supply growth forecast for 2026 up by 10,000 b/d to 960,000 b/d. Eight Opec+ members earlier this month agreed to continue accelerating the pace of their planned unwinding of 2.2mn b/d of crude production cuts for June. The IEA again revised down its supply growth forecasts for the US, mainly because of the effects of lower oil prices on US shale producers. It downgraded US growth by 50,000 b/d to 440,000 b/d for 2025 and by 100,000 b/d to 180,000 b/d for 2026, and said US tight oil production in 2026 would contract on an annual basis for the first time since 2020. The IEA said sanctions on Russia, Iran and Venezuela are a key uncertainty in its forecasts. It noted that Russian crude supply grew by 170,000 b/d in April as crude prices fell below the G7 $60/bl price cap. The IEA's balances show supply exceeding demand by 730,000 b/d in 2025 and by 930,000 b/d in 2026. It said global observed stocks rose by 25.1mn bl in March, with preliminary data showing a further rise in April. By Aydin Calik Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Shale unable to absorb price decline: Continental

14/05/25

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14/05/25

Shale unable to absorb price decline: Continental

New York, 14 May (Argus) — Shale output growth plans are being sidelined for the time being as this year's decline in oil prices curtails investment into the sector, according to the chief executive officer of Continental Resources. "There's nothing that we can use in the industry to absorb a $10/bl drop in price from a technology standpoint," chief executive officer Doug Lawler said at the Super DUG Conference & Expo 2025 in Fort Worth, Texas, today. "There are not capital efficiencies that can be captured that makes up $10/bl." The pullback in capital that is starting to be seen across the industry as a result of the price rout caused by uncertainty around President Donald Trump's tariffs and surging Opec+ supply will continue as the year progresses, Lawler said. Top shale company executives have warned in recent weeks that shale is in for a rough ride given the price drop, which has since stabilized following a US-China trade truce agreed last weekend. US onshore crude production has likely peaked , according to leading independent Diamondback Energy, while Occidental Petroleum chief executive Vicki Hollub warned the peak could come sooner than expected . "I would maybe caveat it just a little bit different, and not call it a peak, necessarily, but I think we're in for a period of a plateau," Lawler said today. Earlier this year, Continental announced a joint venture with Turkey's national oil company and US-based TransAtlantic Petroleum to develop oil and gas resources in southeast and northwest Turkey. "We don't see it necessarily as an international strategy," Lawler said. "We really see it more as a continuation of the history and heritage of the company, of being exploration-focused." It also should not be viewed as the company seeing a lack of domestic opportunities, given 5-10pc of its overall annual capital budget will be directed at exploration over the next few years. Continental, which was founded by shale billionaire and leading Trump donor Harold Hamm in 1967, is the largest leaseholder and producer in the Bakken basin. It also has positions in the Scoop and Stack plays of the Anadarko basin of Oklahoma, and is also active in the Powder River Basin of Wyoming and Permian basin of Texas. By Stephen Cunningham Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Bolivian president bypasses reelection

14/05/25

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14/05/25

Bolivian president bypasses reelection

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Opec downgrades non-Opec+ supply growth forecasts

14/05/25

News

14/05/25

Opec downgrades non-Opec+ supply growth forecasts

London, 14 May (Argus) — Opec has downgraded its 2025 and 2026 non-Opec+ liquids supply growth forecasts for a second month in a row, mainly driven by lower output expectations from the US. In its Monthly Oil Market Report (MOMR), published today, Opec revised down by 100,000 b/d its non-Opec supply growth forecasts for 2025 and 2026 to 810,000 b/d and 800,000 b/d, respectively. This follows identical downgrades of 100,000 b/d for each year in Opec's previous report . While Opec did not give a reason for its supply revisions, the recent decline in oil prices is likely to have played a role. Production growth in the US, particularly in the shale patch, is highly sensitive to price movements, for example. US shale producer Diamondback Energy chief executive Travis Stice earlier this month said US onshore crude production had likely peaked as drilling activity slowed in response to lower oil prices. Opec sees US supply growing by 330,000 b/d in 2025 and 280,000 b/d in 2026, compared with 450,000 b/d and 460,000 b/d in its March MOMR. Lower non-Opec+ supply expectations may have played a role in the decision by some Opec+ members to accelerate their planned supply increases for May and June. Opec kept its global oil demand growth forecasts unchanged for this year and next at 1.3mn b/d and 1.28mn b/d, respectively. These forecasts remain bullish compared to those of the IEA and US' EIA. Opec+ crude production — including Mexico — fell by 106,000 b/d to 40.92mn b/d in April, according to an average of secondary sources that includes Argus . Opec puts the call on Opec+ crude at 42.6mn b/d in 2025 and 42.9mn b/d in 2026. By Aydin Calik Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Sierra Leone plans upstream licensing round in 2025

14/05/25

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14/05/25

Sierra Leone plans upstream licensing round in 2025

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