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US commodity industries brace for fed shutdown

  • Market: Agriculture, Coal, Crude oil, Fertilizers, Hydrogen, LPG, Natural gas, Oil products
  • 29/09/23

A halt to energy permitting on federal land, disruptions to agricultural and import data, and air travel delays are among the potential effects of a US federal government shutdown that could begin this weekend.

President Joe Biden has used the last month to urge the US Congress to come up with an agreement to avert a shutdown, attacking "extreme" Republicans who so far have failed to agree among themselves on even a short-term plan to fund the government. Absent an unexpected breakthrough, federal agencies will begin to implement shutdown plans at 12:01am ET on 1 October. The most recent shutdown came in 2018-19 for a record 35 days as Republicans demanded funding to wall on US-Mexico border.

Updated shutdown plans from federal agencies have been trickling out for the last few weeks, although some agencies, such as the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) have not yet been updated. Businesses and consumers can expect to see minor disruptions at first that will expand the longer Congress remains at an impasse over funding.

Here are some of possible impacts at agencies during a shutdown:

US Energy Information Administration (EIA)

A lapse in appropriations will not have an immediate effect on the EIA's steady stream of weekly and monthly energy reports and data collection. The agency plans to "continue to collect and publish data on our regular schedule." In earlier shutdowns EIA was eventually forced to suspend work, but the agency has yet to say how long it can continue operating.

US Department of Agriculture (USDA)

A shutdown would suspend all of the USDA's National Agricultural Statistics Service work gathering, analyzing and reporting on crop and harvest data, according to a 2021 shutdown plan. Data collection and analysis related to crop prices would continue.

Census Bureau/ITA

Most services and activities at the Census Bureau and International Trade Administration, which are part of the Commerce Department, would stop under a shutdown. This means reports on commodity import and export data would not be issued, and the steel and aluminum mill import licensing system would stop.

Federal oil and gas drilling

The US Bureau of Land Management plans to halt work on onshore drilling permits, right-of-way applications, oil and gas lease sales, renewable energy leases. Inspections of oil and gas facilities and oversight of the Trans-Alaska Pipeline will continue, according to a shutdown plan updated this month.

For the offshore industry, the US Bureau of Ocean Energy Management will keep processing some oil and gas exploration plans with an on-call group of 40 exempted personnel, such as time-sensitive actions related to ongoing work. The agency also has 148 exempt employees funded with carry-over funds to work on "priority" renewable and conventional energy projects. The agency will halt activities related to lease sales, environmental reviews, preparation of the five-year offshore leasing plan, and issuing notices of lease sales.

The US Bureau of Safety and Environmental Enforcement will retain 40pc of its 850-person staff to continue critical permit revisions, inspections and other actions to protect workers and the environment. The agency will halt non-essential training, non-critical regulatory work, scientific studies and administrative activites not directly in support of the exempted workforce.

Airline travel

US airlines will be shielded from immediate effects of a shutdown because key federal workers — air traffic controllers and airport security officers — are treated as "essential" and not subject to furloughs. But delays have occurred in previous shutdowns, as staff not receiving a paycheck started calling out sick. A shutdown would "further constrain an already stressed" airspace, possibly leading to delays for travelers and cargo, longer airport screening lines and setbacks for airplane certification, trade group Airlines for America said.

US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA)

Climate and environmental rules being issued by the EPA could face major disruptions if the agency uses its latest shutdown policy from September 2021, when the agency said it planned to furlough 93pc of its 14,000 employees. The White House has warned a shutdown would interfere with chemical plant inspections. A shutdown could disrupt EPA's push to reduce a backlog of pending "Class VI" carbon capture and sequestration permits. EPA has yet to release updated guidance but it has some multi-year funding under the IRA and the 2021 infrastructure law.

Rail safety

About 35pc of the US Federal Railroad Administration's staff will be furloughed during a shutdown, leaving a staff of about 750 workers. Staff that manage rail accident response and inspections will continue working to allow rail transit to continue. But a shutdown would halt work on all rail safety regulations, contracts, grants and research spending.

Pipeline safety

Federal inspections of oil and gas pipelines, enforcement of hazardous material safety rules, and investigations of hazardous material accidents will continue at the US Pipeline and Hazardous Materials Safety Administration. But the agency plans to furlough 200 of its 600-person staff focused on new regulations, training, grants and engineering.

Inflation Reduction Act implementation

Federal workers tasked with carrying out the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) and the 2021 infrastructure law could avoid furloughs because many of the programs are funded with multi-year appropriations. Tax policy under the IRA "will continue to operate," according to the US Treasury Department's shutdown plans. More than 1,000 workers at the US Energy Department are fully or partly funded by the two laws, and the agency said their work can continue. That will reduce delays to key policies related to clean hydrogen, carbon capture, electric vehicles and spending on clean energy projects.


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03/05/25

Opec+ eight agree accelerated hike for June: Update

Opec+ eight agree accelerated hike for June: Update

London, 3 May (Argus) — A core group of eight Opec+ members has agreed to accelerate, for a second consecutive month, their plan to unwind some of their production cuts, the Opec secretariat said Saturday. As it did for May, the group will again raise its collective output target by 411,000 b/d in June, three times as much as it had planned in its original roadmap to gradually unwind 2.2mn b/d of crude production cuts by the middle of next year. The original plan envisaged a slow and steady unwind over 18 months from April, with monthly increments of about 137,000 b/d. But today's decision means that the eight — Saudi Arabia, Russia, the UAE, Kuwait, Iraq, Algeria, Oman and Kazakhstan — will have unwound almost half of the 2.2mn b/d cut in the space of just three months. The decision to maintain this accelerated pace into June is somewhat surprising, given the weakness in oil prices and the outlook for the global economy. The eight's decision last month to deliver a three-in-one hike in May was seen as a key reason for the recent slide in oil prices, alongside US President Donald Trump's tariff policies. Front month Ice Brent futures have fallen by about $13/bl since early April to stand at just over $61/bl. But the eight today pointed to "current healthy market fundamentals, as reflected in the low oil inventories" as a key factor in its latest decision. It reiterated, as it has in the past, that the gradual monthly increases "may be paused or reversed subject to evolving market conditions." As was the case for May, delegates said that the main driver for the June hike was again a desire to send a message to those countries that have persistently breached their production targets since the start of last year — most notably Kazakhstan and Iraq, which each have significant overproduction to compensate for through the middle of next year. "This measure will provide an opportunity for the participating countries to accelerate their compensation," the secretariat said. This group of eight is due to next meet on 1 June to review market conditions and decide on July production levels. By Nader Itayim, Aydin Calik and Bachar Halabi Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Opec+ eight to agree another accelerated hike for June


03/05/25
News
03/05/25

Opec+ eight to agree another accelerated hike for June

London, 3 May (Argus) — A core group of eight Opec+ members look set to today to accelerate, for a second consecutive month, their plan to unwind some of their production cuts, four delegates told Argus . As it did for May, the group would again raise its collective output target by 411,000 b/d in June, three times as much as it had planned in its original roadmap to gradually unwind 2.2mn b/d of crude production cuts by the middle of next year. The original plan envisaged a slow and steady unwind over 18 months from April, with monthly increments of about 137,000 b/d. But today's decision would mean that the eight — Saudi Arabia, Russia, the UAE, Kuwait, Iraq, Algeria, Oman and Kazakhstan — will have unwound almost half of the 2.2mn b/d cut in the space of just three months. The decision to maintain this accelerated pace into June would be somewhat surprising, particularly given the weakness in oil prices and the outlook for the global economy. The eight's decision last month to deliver a three-in-one hike in May was seen as a key reason for the recent slide in oil prices, alongside US President Donald Trump's tariff policies. Front month Ice Brent futures have fallen by about $13/bl since early April to stand at just over $61/bl. While Opec+ has said that it is acting to support an expected rise in summer demand, the decision to speed up the output increases once again appears to be driven by a desire to send a message to countries that have persistently breached their production targets — most notably Kazakhstan and Iraq. By Aydin Calik, Bachar Halabi and Nader Itayim Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Exxon sees 45V surviving, needs blue H2 offtake


02/05/25
News
02/05/25

Exxon sees 45V surviving, needs blue H2 offtake

Houston, 2 May (Argus) — ExxonMobil chief executive officer Darren Woods expects low-carbon hydrogen production incentives to survive a White House review, but he wants more sales commitments before making a final investment decision on a company project in Baytown, Texas. "Our expectation is that things that we need to drive low-carbon hydrogen will probably stay in place," Woods said during the company's first-quarter earnings call Friday. "But we have to see that manifested." Woods has said that the 45V hydrogen production tax credit is "critical" to establishing a market for the zero-emissions fuel that can stand on its own and compete against fossil fuels. The company is developing what it describes as the largest low-carbon hydrogen plant in the world in Baytown, designed to produce 1bn cf/d of hydrogen from natural gas with carbon capture. While the 45Q incentive is available for projects using carbon capture and sequestration to lower emissions, ExxonMobil has repeatedly indicated it is pursuing the more lucrative 45V for the massive hydrogen and ammonia production project planned on the Texas Gulf coast. In addition to certainty about federal incentives, Woods said the company also needs to secure more offtake agreements in order to make a final investment decision. "I'd say right now that's probably the long pole in the tent with respect to driving this," Woods said. "When those two things come together and we're confident that we have what we need to generate the returns that's going to be required to justify the investments, we'll move forward. Hopefully, that's later this year." Most of the project's production would be used to decarbonize operations at Exxon's 564,500 b/d Baytown refinery, while the remainder is being targeted for exports in the form of ammonia. In January, the company signed an agreement to sell ammonia to European trading firm Trammo. Japanese power producer Jera has said it is considering 500,000 t/yr of ammonia offtake as part of its plans to take an equity stake in the project. By Jasmina Kelemen Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Mexico bets on new contract model to lift gas output


02/05/25
News
02/05/25

Mexico bets on new contract model to lift gas output

Mexico City, 2 May (Argus) — Mexico's push to raise domestic gas output to 5 Bcf/d by 2030 depends on a new shared participation model designed to attract private investment, with four strategic gas fields prioritized as tenders begin. State-owned Pemex this week released the detailed guidelines for the mixed production scheme, first introduced in February. The model guarantees Pemex at least a 40pc share of production and gives the company wide discretion to set contract terms and choose the bidding process — including no-bid awards. But interest in the new contracts is expected to center on Mexican firms with close ties to President Claudia Sheinbaum's administration, such as Carlos Slim's Grupo Carso, according to market sources. "With these guidelines, Pemex can finally pick and choose who they want, how they want," said Miriam Grunstein, a former adviser to energy regulator CRE and senior partner at Brilliant Energy Consulting. "The downside is they are likely to turn to Mexican firms that lack the technical experience for complex projects, rather than international companies with the know-how for deep-water or unconventional plays," Grunstein said. "This scheme isn't made for companies like BHP, Total, or Eni," added Eduardo Prud'homme, former technical director at Cenagas and co-partner at consultancy Gadex. "Pemex doesn't want operators as partners. Though it is perfect for Carso." A relative newcomer to the upstream sector, Carso is one of the government's most important contractors for infrastructure projects and stands to gain on future business whether or not the upstream partnerships succeed. Prud'homme doubts international majors looking for a one-off deal would be willing to take on the heavily regulated, high-risk projects when the maximum stake is 60pc. "If you fail, Pemex will not share the loss," said Prud'homme. "If you succeed, Pemex decides how much to share." Pemex management said it plans to launch 17 projects under the new scheme this year. It remains unclear how many of these will focus on gas development. Still, gas is a core focus. Pemex's 2025–2030 business plan allocates Ps238bn (US$12.1bn) to gas projects in pursuit of the 5 Bcf/d goal. Four key fields — Burgos, Quesqui, Ixachi and Bakte — are expected to provide 54pc of total projected output. Carso is already active, partnering with Pemex on the complex deep-water Lakach gas project, which is now expected to migrate from a service contract to the new mixed contract model. Slim began renegotiations in February after the model was announced. Carso has also expanded upstream, buying into the oil-rich Zama project in December. In March, Sheinbaum confirmed the government is in talks with Carso to partner on Ixachi. Turning the tide Still, gas output continues to decline. An analysis by Mexican think tank IMCO found that Pemex and its farmout partners this year posted their lowest first-quarter gas production in 15 years. In the first quarter, Pemex produced 4.408 Bcf/d of gas, down by 8pc from the same period in 2024 and 12pc lower compared with the same quarter 2023. The 367 MMcf/d annual decline marks the steepest first-quarter drop since 2018, when output fell by 536 MMcf/d year over year. On the positive side, Pemex's natural gas production in March ticked 0.3pc higher from the previous month to 4.39 Bcf/d – marking the second consecutive month of increases after February output was up 1.3pc from January. By James Young Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Eight Opec+ members weigh further acceleration


02/05/25
News
02/05/25

Eight Opec+ members weigh further acceleration

Dubai, 2 May (Argus) — A core group of eight Opec+ producers meet on 3 May to decide whether to repeat last month's surprise move to add extra oil to an increasingly weak market. The main motivation for the group of eight's decision to triple the size of their output increase for May remains, suggesting that a repeat could be on the cards for June. As the dust began to settle on last month's decision, it became clear that raising their combined output target by 411,000 b/d in one month, rather than the scheduled 137,000 b/d, was rooted not only in stronger fundamentals, as the official communique suggests, but also in a desire to send a message to those countries that have persistently breached their production targets. The main culprits are Iraq and Kazakhstan, which have consistently failed to keep their production in check since the start of last year (see graph). The two are left with a lot to do by way of compensating for those excess barrels between now and the middle of next year (see graph). Russia, too, has overproduced during that period, but to a much lesser degree relative to its overall output. That persistent overproduction has been a source of deep frustration among other countries in the group of eight — principally the core of Opec's Mideast Gulf members — that have "sacrificed", in the words of one delegate, to adhere to their targets. April's decision was a nod to those that have sacrificed and a sharp warning to Kazakhstan and Iraq to do better and to do so quickly. Two delegates stressed to Argus at the time that the coming weeks would be critical for Baghdad and Astana to show that they were serious about abiding by their quotas. Failure to do so could trigger another "surprise" move for June, they said, possibly even another three-in-one hike. It was little surprise, then, that some ill-timed comments by Kazakh energy minister Yerlan Akkenzhenov on 23 April — in which he explicitly said Astana's national interests take priority over its Opec+ commitments, and that the country simply "cannot" reduce output — triggered serious speculation about whether the eight may repeat last month's decision. March data from Iraq, too, were not ideal, in that while they showed that Iraq did produce below quota, its efforts to compensate fell well short. Timing is everything Some in the group of eight may well be tempted to go down that route, thinking a second consecutive "shock" could deliver the desired wake-up call that the first did not. Two delegate sources confirmed to Argus that another 411,000 b/d target increase for June remains a distinct possibility. But such a course of action would be risky. Crude is already trading $12/bl below where it was when the group last met, and demand-side concerns are again on the rise because of the potential impact of US trade tariffs. The Opec secretariat and the IEA downgraded 2025 oil demand growth forecasts in their latest oil market outlooks. Opec revised its forecast down to 1.3mn b/d from 1.45mn b/d in its previous report. The IEA revised down its forecast by a sizeable 310,000 b/d to 730,000 b/d for 2025, despite "robust" consumption in the first quarter. It downgraded its forecast for April-December by 400,000 b/d. Another three-in-one hike for June would be "difficult" to imagine in this market, one delegate says. With that said, the eight's options include a "standard" 137,000 b/d rise to the group's collective target for June, in line with the original schedule, or, at a push, a two-in-one hike. That would not only send that internal message to the least compliant of the group, but also act as a show of good faith towards US president Donald Trump ahead of his visit to Riyadh, Abu Dhabi and Doha on 13-16 May. By Nader Itayim, Bachar Halabi and Aydin Calik Opec+ overproducers Opec+ compensation plan Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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