A halt to energy permitting on federal land, disruptions to agricultural and import data, and air travel delays are among the potential effects of a US federal government shutdown that could begin this weekend.
President Joe Biden has used the last month to urge the US Congress to come up with an agreement to avert a shutdown, attacking "extreme" Republicans who so far have failed to agree among themselves on even a short-term plan to fund the government. Absent an unexpected breakthrough, federal agencies will begin to implement shutdown plans at 12:01am ET on 1 October. The most recent shutdown came in 2018-19 for a record 35 days as Republicans demanded funding to wall on US-Mexico border.
Updated shutdown plans from federal agencies have been trickling out for the last few weeks, although some agencies, such as the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) have not yet been updated. Businesses and consumers can expect to see minor disruptions at first that will expand the longer Congress remains at an impasse over funding.
Here are some of possible impacts at agencies during a shutdown:
US Energy Information Administration (EIA)
A lapse in appropriations will not have an immediate effect on the EIA's steady stream of weekly and monthly energy reports and data collection. The agency plans to "continue to collect and publish data on our regular schedule." In earlier shutdowns EIA was eventually forced to suspend work, but the agency has yet to say how long it can continue operating.
US Department of Agriculture (USDA)
A shutdown would suspend all of the USDA's National Agricultural Statistics Service work gathering, analyzing and reporting on crop and harvest data, according to a 2021 shutdown plan. Data collection and analysis related to crop prices would continue.
Census Bureau/ITA
Most services and activities at the Census Bureau and International Trade Administration, which are part of the Commerce Department, would stop under a shutdown. This means reports on commodity import and export data would not be issued, and the steel and aluminum mill import licensing system would stop.
Federal oil and gas drilling
The US Bureau of Land Management plans to halt work on onshore drilling permits, right-of-way applications, oil and gas lease sales, renewable energy leases. Inspections of oil and gas facilities and oversight of the Trans-Alaska Pipeline will continue, according to a shutdown plan updated this month.
For the offshore industry, the US Bureau of Ocean Energy Management will keep processing some oil and gas exploration plans with an on-call group of 40 exempted personnel, such as time-sensitive actions related to ongoing work. The agency also has 148 exempt employees funded with carry-over funds to work on "priority" renewable and conventional energy projects. The agency will halt activities related to lease sales, environmental reviews, preparation of the five-year offshore leasing plan, and issuing notices of lease sales.
The US Bureau of Safety and Environmental Enforcement will retain 40pc of its 850-person staff to continue critical permit revisions, inspections and other actions to protect workers and the environment. The agency will halt non-essential training, non-critical regulatory work, scientific studies and administrative activites not directly in support of the exempted workforce.
Airline travel
US airlines will be shielded from immediate effects of a shutdown because key federal workers — air traffic controllers and airport security officers — are treated as "essential" and not subject to furloughs. But delays have occurred in previous shutdowns, as staff not receiving a paycheck started calling out sick. A shutdown would "further constrain an already stressed" airspace, possibly leading to delays for travelers and cargo, longer airport screening lines and setbacks for airplane certification, trade group Airlines for America said.
US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA)
Climate and environmental rules being issued by the EPA could face major disruptions if the agency uses its latest shutdown policy from September 2021, when the agency said it planned to furlough 93pc of its 14,000 employees. The White House has warned a shutdown would interfere with chemical plant inspections. A shutdown could disrupt EPA's push to reduce a backlog of pending "Class VI" carbon capture and sequestration permits. EPA has yet to release updated guidance but it has some multi-year funding under the IRA and the 2021 infrastructure law.
Rail safety
About 35pc of the US Federal Railroad Administration's staff will be furloughed during a shutdown, leaving a staff of about 750 workers. Staff that manage rail accident response and inspections will continue working to allow rail transit to continue. But a shutdown would halt work on all rail safety regulations, contracts, grants and research spending.
Pipeline safety
Federal inspections of oil and gas pipelines, enforcement of hazardous material safety rules, and investigations of hazardous material accidents will continue at the US Pipeline and Hazardous Materials Safety Administration. But the agency plans to furlough 200 of its 600-person staff focused on new regulations, training, grants and engineering.
Inflation Reduction Act implementation
Federal workers tasked with carrying out the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) and the 2021 infrastructure law could avoid furloughs because many of the programs are funded with multi-year appropriations. Tax policy under the IRA "will continue to operate," according to the US Treasury Department's shutdown plans. More than 1,000 workers at the US Energy Department are fully or partly funded by the two laws, and the agency said their work can continue. That will reduce delays to key policies related to clean hydrogen, carbon capture, electric vehicles and spending on clean energy projects.