Arkansas, Oklahoma push delay for E15 petition
Arkansas and Oklahoma have joined an oil industry effort to delay beyond 2024 a gasoline reformulation that eight Midwestern states have requested to preserve year-round sales of 15pc ethanol gasoline (E15).
Unless the fuel specification change is delayed until at least April 2025, the governors of Arkansas and Oklahoma worry their drivers will inadvertently face higher pump prices and fuel shortages. The governors cited warnings from the oil sector that, without more time to comply, the industry will be unable to provide enough of two new "boutique grades" of gasoline that are being requested by the eight Midwestern states.
"This will result in an insufficient supply of gasoline and add to the cost of gasoline at the pump for Arkansans," governor Sarah Huckabee Sanders (R) wrote on 9 October in a request for the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) to delay the fuel specification change.
Oklahoma governor Kevin Stitt (R), in a similar letter sent on 25 August, said the fuel specification change sought by other states would mean higher fuel costs for "unsuspecting Oklahoma motorists" at a time of already high gasoline prices. Stitt said he supported a congressional solution to the issue so the eight states would not require a "Band-Aid" to preserve year-round E15 sales.
E15 has been available for sale year-round nationwide since 2019, but absent intervention, the fuel blend will eventually face sales limits in the summer. A federal court in 2021 found the Clean Air Act offers a fuel volatility "waiver" exclusively to 10pc ethanol gasoline (E10), a ruling EPA has sidestepped for the last two summers by issuing temporary emergency orders citing the war in Ukraine.
To avoid future sales restrictions on E15, the eight Midwestern states — Illinois, Iowa, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, Ohio, South Dakota and Wisconsin — have filed a petition to rescind the longstanding Reid vapor pressure (RVP) waiver for E10, which would lead to the reformulation of the blendstocks used to produce both E10 and E15.
EPA this spring proposed approving the request from the eight states with an effective date of 28 April 2024, but it has yet to finalize the rule, leaving the oil sector uncertain about the change.
Not enough time to comply
US refiners say revoking the waiver will require them to supply two new fuel grades — regular and premium — to the eight states as soon as 1 March 2024, which they say will not offer enough time to comply.
Oil industry officials say the upgrades required to handle the new fuel grades could require years of work.
Magellan Midstream, which said it supplies the majority of gasoline sold in many of the eight Midwestern states, said it does not have adequate infrastructure at most of its terminals to accommodate the two new grades of gasoline the reformulation change would require.
"The timeline for new storage and infrastructure modifications is 24 months or more," Magellan said in an 18 August letter to the EPA requesting a one-year delay. Additional time would be needed for permitting and construction of the new infrastructure, and it would also make it more costly for Magellan to operate its entire pipeline system by reducing "fungibility" of the same 9 psi RVP gasoline to most states it serves.
Magellan also supplies fuel to Oklahoma, Arkansas, Kansas, North Dakota and Wyoming, which are not seeking the gasoline reformulation.
Change known about for months
Ethanol industry groups oppose delaying the effective date for the new fuel past April 2024, saying refiners and terminal operators have known for months that EPA was preparing a final rule requiring the fuel change.
"If refiners and pipeline and terminal operators don't like the idea of supplying lower-volatility gasoline in these eight states, they should join us in supporting recently introduced legislation that would permanently resolve this issue nationwide and make these state petitions unnecessary," Renewable Fuels Association president Geoff Cooper said.
The oil industry group the American Petroleum Institute, in a letter to EPA on 29 September seeking to delay the fuel change until 2025, said it supports a bill sponsored by US senator Deb Fischer (R-Nebraska) extending the E10 waiver to E15 as preferable to states seeking different rules.
But uncertainty over the prospects for that bill have raised concerns by the oil industry. Magellan said any spending to handle the new fuel grades sought by the eight states would be "high risk investments" that could be stranded if Congress grants a nationwide E15 waiver. Delaying the change to 2025 could provide time to develop a legislative solution, Magellan said.
EPA did not respond to a request for comment on the timing of its final rule.
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Von der Leyen faces new Green Deal challenges
Von der Leyen faces new Green Deal challenges
The president promises a ‘clean industrial deal', but will need to make compromises over climate policy, writes Dafydd ab Iago Brussels, 19 July (Argus) — Ursula von der Leyen's re-election by the European Parliament as president of the European Commission on 18 July promises to see a doubling down on climate and energy policy, with her 2024-29 mandate stipulating greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions cuts of at least 90pc by 2040 compared with 1990. "I have not forgotten how [Russian president Vladimir] Putin blackmailed us by cutting us off from Russian fossil fuels. We invested massively in homegrown cheap renewables and this enabled us to break free from dirty Russian fossil fuels," von der Leyen says, promising to end the "era of dependency on Russian fossil fuels". She has not given an end date for this, nor specified if this includes a commitment to ending Russian LNG imports. Von der Leyen went on to detail political guidelines for 2024-29. She has pledged to propose a "clean industrial deal" in the first 100 days of her new mandate, albeit without giving concrete figures about how much investment this would channel to infrastructure and industry, particularly for energy-intensive sectors. The clean industrial deal will help bring down energy bills, she says. Von der Leyen told parliament that the commission would propose legislation, under the European Climate Law, establishing a 90pc emissions-reduction target for 2040. Her political guidelines also call for scaling up and prioritising investment in clean technologies, including grid infrastructure, storage capacity, transport for captured CO2, energy efficiency, power digitalisation and a hydrogen network. She plans to extend aggregate demand mechanisms beyond gas to include hydrogen and critical raw materials, and notes the dangers of dependencies and fraying supply chains — from Putin's energy blackmail to China's monopoly on battery and chip raw materials. Majority report Passing the necessary legislation to implement her stated policies will now require approval from EU states and parliament. Unless amplified by Germany's election next year, election victories by far-right parties in France and elsewhere appear not to threaten EU state majorities for specific legislation. Parliament's political centre-left S&D and liberal Renew groups, as well as von der Leyen's own centre-right European People's Party (EPP), have elaborated key policy requests. These broadly call for the continuation of the European Green Deal — a set of legislation and policy measures aimed at 55pc GHG emissions reductions by 2030 compared with 1990. A symbolic issue for von der Leyen to decide on — or compromise on — is that of internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles. EPP wants to stick to technological neutrality and revise the current mandate for sales of new ICE cars to be phased out by 2035, if they cannot run exclusively on carbon-neutral fuels. The EPP wants an e-fuel, biofuel and low-carbon fuel strategy. Von der Leyen's guidelines reflect the need to gain support from centre-right, centre-left and greens. She says the 2035 climate neutrality target for new cars creates investor and manufacturer "predictability" but requires a "technology-neutral approach, in which e-fuels have a role to play". She has not mentioned carbon-neutral biofuels. It will be impossible for von der Leyen to satisfy all demands in her second mandate. This includes policy requests put forward by the EPP, ranging from a "pragmatic" definition of low-carbon hydrogen and market rules for carbon capture and storage, to postponing the EU's deforestation regulation. EU member states are expected to propose their candidates for commissioners in August, including for energy, climate and trade policy, with von der Leyen's new commission subject to a final vote in parliament in late October. Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Trump vows to target 'green' spending, EV rules
Trump vows to target 'green' spending, EV rules
Washington, 19 July (Argus) — Former president Donald Trump promised to redirect US green energy spending to other projects, throw out electric vehicle (EV) rules and increase drilling, in a speech Thursday night formally accepting the Republican presidential nomination. Trump's acceptance speech, delivered at the Republican National Convention, offered the clearest hints yet at his potential plans for dismantling the Inflation Reduction Act and the 2021 bipartisan infrastructure law. Without explicitly naming the two laws, Trump said he would claw back unspent funds for the "Green New Scam," a shorthand he has used in the past to criticize spending on wind, solar, EVs, energy infrastructure and climate resilience. "All of the trillions of dollars that are sitting there not yet spent, we will redirect that money for important projects like roads, bridges, dams, and we will not allow it to be spent on the meaningless Green New Scam ideas," Trump said during the final night of the convention in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. Trump and his campaign have yet to clearly detail their plans for the two laws, which collectively provide hundreds of billions of dollars worth of federal tax credits and direct spending for renewable energy, EVs, clean hydrogen, carbon capture, sustainable aviation fuel, biofuels, nuclear and advanced manufacturing. Repealing those programs outright could be politically difficult because a majority of spending from the two laws have flowed to districts represented by Republican lawmakers. The speech was Trump's first public remarks since he was grazed by a bullet in an assassination attempt on 13 July. Trump used the shooting to call for the country to unite, but he repeatedly slipped back into the divisive rhetoric of his campaign and his grievances against President Joe Biden, who he claimed was the worst president in US history. Trump vowed to "end the electric vehicle mandate" on the first day of his administration, in an apparent reference to tailpipe rules that are expected to result in about 54pc of new cars and trucks sales being battery-only EVs by model year 2032. Trump also said that unless automakers put their manufacturing facilities in the US, he would put tariffs of 100-200pc on imported vehicles. To tackle inflation, Trump said he would bring down interest rates, which are controlled by the US Federal Reserve, an agency that historically acts independently from the White House. Trump also said he would bring down prices for energy through a policy of "drill, baby, drill" and cutting regulations. Trump also vowed to pursue tax cuts, tariffs and the "largest deportation in history," all of which independent economists say would add to inflation. The Republican convention unfolded as Biden, who is isolating after testing positive for Covid-19, faces a growing chorus of top Democratic lawmakers pressuring him to drop out of the presidential race. Democrats plan to select their presidential nominee during an early virtual roll-call vote or at the Democratic National Convention on 19-22 August. By Chris Knigh t Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Q&A: Aviation may pull feeds away from marine: BV
Q&A: Aviation may pull feeds away from marine: BV
London, 19 July (Argus) — Biofuel feedstocks could be routed away from marine fuels to meet demand from the aviation sector if the latter is willing to pay higher prices associated with sustainable aviation fuel (SAF), Bureau Veritas (BV) Marine & Offshore's global market leader for sustainable shipping Julien Boulland told Argus. Edited highlights follow: Marine biodiesel has been the largest alternative fuel uptake, with over 1mn t sold in Rotterdam and Singapore last year. But with Argus assessments showing premiums above $225/t to VLSFO dob ARA, how do you see marine biodiesel demand in the medium- to long-term? Shipowners and ship operators have to run an individual cost-analysis on whether the premiums could be offset by potential savings under EU emissions trading system (ETS) and FuelEU Maritime regulations, as well as any future regulations such as the International Maritime Organisation (IMO) economic pricing mechanism . In terms of emissions, biofuels still emit CO2 on a tank-to-wake basis, but less on a well-to-wake basis compared to their fossil equivalents. This will also vary depending on the feedstock for the biofuel as well as the production process. Under the current IMO regulations for energy efficiency, including the Ship Energy Management Plan (SEEMP) and its requirements for fuel reporting (DCS), there might be some indirect commercial benefits for owners, too. For example, a better CII (Carbon Intensity Indicator) score may make a vessel more appealing to charterers and help its owner secure more favourable rates. There are also other factors to consider, such as Scope 3 emissions rights, which can influence demand, as we currently see from voluntary demand from cargo owners seeking those documents. But this will also have a geographic impact on demand, as larger container liner companies usually utilise the east-west route and they might prefer to opt for bunkering the marine biodiesel blend in Singapore due to lower prices. What are the risks associated with bunkering marine biodiesel in relation to conventional ship engines? How significant is the recent FOBAS report that implied a correlation between the use of "unidentified" biofuels and engine pump injector damage? We have supported our shipowner clients in numerous pilots to trial biofuels such as fatty acid methyl ester (Fame) and hydrotreated vegetable oil (HVO) in variable blends. Overall, these trials have gone smoothly, but we have learned a few things along the way. Firstly, engines do not need to be modified, but since biofuels have slightly different physical properties, it is necessary to find the right engine adjustments. A very good knowledge of the fuel properties is key in determining the right adjustments, and the new revision of ISO 8217 on marine fuel specifications is crucial in supporting this process. Another key finding is the importance of receiving full information on fuel characteristics from the supplier. Finally, BV plays a key role in ensuring full fuel certification on several aspects, including sustainability and physical properties. Used cooking oil (UCO) can also feed into SAF and with potentially greater refining margins. Do you think some feedstocks will be pulled away from marine? When it comes to methanol, we believed marine would take up more of the feedstock compared with the chemicals industry due to greater willingness to pay larger premiums. But with biofuels, it seems to be the other way around where aviation could end up pulling biofuel feedstocks away from maritime. In terms of fuel consumption, the marine and aviation industries are comparable but if aviation are willing to pay more, then it will likely get more of the feedstocks required to produce SAF. What are the implications of the new ISO specifications, what are the key takeaways for marine biodiesel uptake? More has to be done, but now we have parameters for assessing biofuel blend specifications. It was very well accepted by the industry, and now operators and shipowners have a standard to rely on. But it doesn't resolve the question around feedstock cross-industry competition. However, it does also open the door for off-spec Fame residue blends to become ISO-certified — depending on further testing. With IMO aiming for "global regulations for a global market", how do you see conflicts between different regulations affecting the market? We are closely following the IMO development process for a global economic pricing mechanism. IMO has assigned a working group of technical experts to look at this mechanism from an apolitical perspective. In terms of potential regulatory conflicts , we have the example of the Netherlands, where the Dutch emission authority requires the delivery of Proof of Sustainability (PoS) certificates for applying to the scheme of Dutch renewable tickets (HBE-G) which can be traded, but this PoS cannot be used for other purposes, such as the EU ETS. To circumvent this hiccup, we may see the development of new digital certificates, such as an accompanying ISCC-certified Proof of Compliance (PoC). By Hussein Al-Khalisy Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Weather sparks uncertainty for Vietnam’s bitumen demand
Weather sparks uncertainty for Vietnam’s bitumen demand
Mumbai, 19 July (Argus) — Expectations of Vietnam's bitumen consumption in July-August are mixed, given an easing in the monsoon season in some regions but an upcoming typhoon season in other parts. The mixed expectations will likely keep importers uncertain about future seaborne purchases. Consumption in Vietnam has been lower than normal in the last quarter because of unfavourable weather, political uncertainties, a lack of new paving projects and delays in disbursement of project funds, according to market participants. The lower consumption kept inventories higher and weighed on demand for spot seaborne volumes, with many importers only focused on taking delivery of their term contract shipments. Some importers in Vietnam are cautious and did not report consumption rising noticeably as weather in the key consuming south and central regions continues to be wet and not suitable for road paving, while the country is also set to experience typhoons next month. Consumption will stay low until September because the typhoon season starts next month, and the first region to get hit is the north before moving towards the south, a key importer told Argus . It is raining in the south and central regions, according to the importer. "The north is alright now but there is no good pick up [in consumption]," the importer said, adding that imported cargo inventories in the region are still notably higher. This is in contrast to expectations from other Vietnamese importers and some Asian traders, which said that consumption and demand for seaborne bitumen are expected to be higher in July and August as compared to previous months this year, given favourable weather in north Vietnam and more enquiries for Singapore cargoes, to restock in August. Consumption in the south and central regions are stable-to-weak, but overall demand in July and August are set to pick up as some new road projects are in the pipeline, a market participant said. Inventories are falling in some parts of the region and there is a need to replenish stocks now, while the domestic selling price is also expected to increase, participants said. "Demand in Haiphong and north Vietnam is good, and we are able to sell more than last month," another importer told Argus . "If the weather continues to be good, then demand will improve further in the coming weeks and that can increase import appetite." Vietnam is a net importer and typically secures most of its seaborne volumes from Singapore, Thailand, Taiwan, and China. Vietnam imported 1.04mn t of bitumen in 2023, up by 20pc from 866,000t imported in 2022, according to GTT data. Singapore cargoes accounted for about 32pc of Vietnam's total imports last year, while Thailand, Taiwan, and China together accounted for about 35pc of the total imports, the data showed. This compared to a 33pc and 40pc share, respectively, in 2022. Middle East penetration Some importers are worried that domestic prices are unlikely to rise in the near term, because of increased availability of relatively cheaper Middle East-origin cargoes in the region. They noted that this would cut domestic appetite for Asian cargoes and would in turn weigh on imports. Vietnam imported about 252,000t of bitumen from the Middle East in 2023, accounting for about 24pc of the total imports, show GTT data. This compared to 135,000t imported in 2022, which accounted for about 16pc of the total imports. Imports from the Middle East totalled 156,000t over January-May, nearly tripling from 55,000t imported during the same period last year. The region's imports from Singapore during the five-month period this year totalled 135,000t, down from 150,000t a year earlier. Imports from the Middle East increased as the inter-regional price arbitrage with Singapore was wide open. The Argus assessed ABX 1 fob Singapore prices averaged $421.50/t for the week of 12 July, while fob Iran bulk prices averaged $294.50/t for that week. Vietnam importers noted that Middle East-origin bulk cargoes were priced at low-$400s/t on a cfr basis, which was still lower than prevailing fob Singapore levels during the period. By Sathya Narayanan Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
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