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Cop: Cop28 DG says no red line on fossil fuel phase out

  • Market: Coal, Coking coal, Crude oil, Electricity, Emissions, LPG, Natural gas, Oil products, Petrochemicals
  • 01/12/23

The Cop 28 UN climate conference presidency has no "red lines" when it comes to the language on fossil fuels in the negotiated text, director general Majid al-Suwaidi said today.

"Our job as a Cop presidency is not to have red lines," al-Suwaidi said. "We don't have red lines."

Al-Suwaidi was responding to a question about comments made earlier in the day by UN secretary general Antonio Guterres about the need to phase out, rather than phase down, the use of fossil fuels if the world is to avoid a climate disaster and meet the ambitions of the Paris climate agreement. That agreement sets a goal of limiting global warming to "well below" 2° above pre-industrial averages, and preferably to 1.5°C.

"We cannot save a burning planet with a firehose of fossil fuels," Guterres said. "We must accelerate a just, equitable transition to renewables. The science is clear. The 1.5°C limit is only possible if we ultimately stop burning all fossil fuels. Not reduce. Not abate. Phase out, with a clear timeframe aligned with 1.5°C."

Al-Suwaidi said the UAE, as president of Cop 28, has been "very clear" about the need to discuss energy and the energy system, and how the summit should deliver fossil fuel language. While many countries support a phase out of fossil fuel use, others, the UAE included, view hydrocarbons like oil and gas as having a role in the energy transition.

Cop 28 president Sultan al-Jaber has regularly argued for the need to include all forms of energy, including oil and gas, in the global energy mix, particularly until there is sufficient alternative energy capacity to take over from today's hydrocarbon-heavy baseload.

"It is not oil and gas, or solar. Not wind or nuclear, or hydrogen. It is oil and gas, and solar, and wind and nuclear, and hydrogen," al-Jaber said late last year. "It is all of the above, plus the clean energies yet to be discovered, commercialised and deployed. The world needs maximum energy, minimum emissions."


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19/03/25

US Fed keeps rate flat, eyes 2 cuts in '25: Update

US Fed keeps rate flat, eyes 2 cuts in '25: Update

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Swedish wind output structurally shifts Nordic hydro


19/03/25
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19/03/25

Swedish wind output structurally shifts Nordic hydro

London, 19 March (Argus) — Higher Swedish wind output is a structural supply shift that could support Norwegian hydro stocks over the long term, as recent record hydro reserves come despite below-average rainfall between October 2024 and February 2025. Combined Nordic hydropower reserves have held a surplus to the 10-year maximum for eight of the first 10 weeks of 2025, peaking at seven percentage points in week 10, as Norwegian hydro reserves unexpectedly increased from a week earlier. Reserves across Finland, Norway and Sweden closed week 10 at 55.6pc of capacity, seven percentage points above any other week in the previous 10 years and 5.1 percentage points higher than in 2008, the next highest year. Hydro production in Norway fell on the year in 2024, dropping to an average of 12.1GW, down from 12.2GW in 2023 and around 7pc below the five-year average of 12.9pc. Tighter hydro conditions in the first half of the year weighed on generation. Still, in the final six months of 2024, hydro reservoir output also fell on the year, dropping by 4pc to an average of 11.4GW, down from 11.9GW. That is despite combined Nordic reserves last year holding an average stock surplus of 5.2 percentage points to 2023 between weeks 34 and 52. At the same time, Swedish wind output increased to an average of 4.6GW last year, up by 18pc on the year from 3.9GW a year earlier and ending last year around 34pc higher than the five-year average. Higher wind generation weighs significantly on regional day-ahead prices and discourages hydro production by lowering the spot below the perceived water value of stored hydropower capacity. Rising wind capacity and its effect on the power mix is particularly notable during the first and fourth winter quarters, with generally the highest prices, with Swedish wind output averaging 5.8GW last year between January and March and October and December, up by 22pc from the equivalent periods in 2022. That displacement represents a structural supply shift in the Nordic power market that can support hydro reserves beyond rain and temperature outlook patterns going forward and during below-average precipitation periods, as the call for hydro production falls in hours when wind output is highest that — before significant wind capacity additions in Sweden — were routine output hours. Furthermore, higher run-of-river generation last year, up by 8pc in 2024 compared with a year earlier to an average of 3.4GW, captures the higher stock feed-in and water volumes that supported Nordic reservoirs in 2024 leading into 2025 and emphasises that, like wind output, run-of-river, which is generally not dispatchable undermines the regional spot price and reduces the call for reservoir hydro output. Norwegian hydro production last week peaked at 19.7GW on 13 March and averaged 17.9GW between 10 and 16 March, exceeding the monthly average of 15.9GW in March so far. Higher Norwegian hydro output was directly correlated with lower Swedish wind generation on those days, with Swedish average daily wind generation falling to 1.1GW and 1.5GW on 12 March and 13 March, respectively, while Norwegian hydro output topped 19GW on both days. By 15 and 16 March, Norwegian hydro production fell back to 16.6GW and 14.5GW, as Swedish wind generation rose to 7.6GW and 8.2GW. Unseasonably high reserves have consistently weighed on summer delivery power contracts and supported a substantial €59.20/MWh discount for Nordic June to the German equivalent on 18 March and an average discount of €59.13/MWh between 3 and 18 March. The Nordic third quarter last closed at a €66.10/MWh discount to the German equivalent and has averaged €67.23/MWh below Germany's front quarter over the previous 30 days. Reserves ended last month at 57.8pc of total capacity, some 3.4 percentage points above the 10-year maximum and in Norway, reserves were just 0.5 percentage points below the long-term national maximum, with stocks since switching to a 2.8 percentage point surplus to the maximum in week 10 and a 2.4 percentage point surplus in week 11. This was despite precipitation between October and February being up on the year, it remained below the region's seasonal norm by nearly 20.6mm, with rainfall in Bergen over the same period below the average in four of the past five years. Precipitation over the five months last exceeded the seasonal norm in 2022, totalling 1,804.8mm and registering a 422.9mm surplus to the average. But at February's close, hydro reserves in 2022 were 17.2 percentage points below the equivalent week in 2025, underscoring increased Swedish wind output's impact over the 2024-25 season. By Daniel Craig Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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US Fed keeps rate unchanged, signals 2 cuts this year


19/03/25
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19/03/25

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Houston, 19 March (Argus) — Federal Reserve policymakers held their target interest rate unchanged today in their second meeting of 2025, and signaled two quarter-point cuts are still likely this year. The Fed's Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) held the federal funds rate unchanged at 4.25-4.50pc. This mirrored the decision made at the last FOMC meeting at the end of January, which followed cutting the rate by 100 basis points in the last three meetings of 2024, which were the first cuts since 2020. In December last year, the Fed penciled-in 50 basis points worth of cuts for 2025, down from 100 basis points projected in the September median economic projections of Fed board members and Fed bank presidents. By Bob Willis Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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UK wealth fund to prioritise ‘clean energy’ investment


19/03/25
News
19/03/25

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EU mulls competitive metals decarbonisation


19/03/25
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19/03/25

EU mulls competitive metals decarbonisation

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