A draft decision released today by the presidency of the UN Cop 28 climate summit calls for countries to transition "away from fossil fuels in energy systems" to achieve net zero by 2050 but stops short of urging a phase out. Language on curbing fossil fuels has not to date appeared in a Cop final text.
The draft decision at the Dubai summit must still be agreed by consensus, with 198 countries party to the UNFCCC, the UN's climate body. The draft is for the global stocktake, one of the key elements of this year's Cop. It measures progress towards Paris Agreement goals of limiting global warming to "well below" 2°C above pre-industrial averages and preferably to 1.5°C. The draft decision reiterates the importance of "pursuing efforts" towards 1.5°C.
The language chosen for the text, of "transitioning away from fossil fuels in energy systems", is more open to interpretation than a previous version from 11 December that called for a reduction in consumption and production of fossil fuels. But it attaches a timeframe, asking parties to accelerate "action in this critical decade".
The draft decision "calls on parties to contribute to… global efforts". The text calls on countries to accelerate "zero- and low-emission technologies", naming carbon capture, use and storage and "low-carbon hydrogen". Previous draft versions linked increased renewables technologies to displacement of fossil fuels. The draft references "transitional fuels", although these are undefined and the wording could be viewed as a loophole.
On coal, the text calls for "accelerating efforts towards the phase-down of unabated coal power", a phrase used in outcomes from Cop 26 in 2021 and Cop 27 in 2022. A reference to inefficient fossil fuel subsidies, which has also appeared in previous Cop decisions, has a partial definition attached, outlining these as subsidies "that do not address energy poverty or just transitions".
The draft decision sets out the emissions cuts needed to stay in line with a 1.5°C scenario and calls on countries to treble renewable energy capacity and double energy efficiency rates, both by 2030, something 130 countries have now agreed to at Cop 28. It also places an emphasis on climate finance, highlighting that it needs to "increase manyfold" and outlining the trillions of dollars needed.
Cop 28 was scheduled to finish on 12 December. But talks continued overnight as the presidency grappled to find common ground between more than 100 countries demanding reference to a phase out of fossil fuels and nations which opposed this, including oil producers Saudi Arabia and Russia.
