Francine shuts in 24pc of US Gulf oil output: Update

Market: Crude oil, Natural gas
10/09/24

Includes production shut-in figures, port status updates and spot crude price information.

US offshore operators shut in 24pc of Gulf of Mexico oil production ahead of tropical storm Francine, which is expected to gain hurricane status later today and hit Louisiana Wednesday.

About 412,070 b/d of offshore oil output was off line as of 12:30pm ET due to storm preparations, according to the Bureau of Safety and Environmental Enforcement (BSEE). About 494mn cf/d of natural gas production, or 26pc of the region's output, was also off line. Operators evacuated workers from 130 platforms.

The storm was about 380 miles southwest of Morgan City, Louisiana, packing maximum sustained winds of 65mph, according to a 2pm ET advisory from the National Hurricane Center. It is expected to continue to move across the northwestern Gulf of Mexico tonight and make landfall in Louisiana on Wednesday evening.

The storm will track through an offshore region that accounts for about 15pc of US crude output and 5pc of US natural gas production.

Ports closing ahead of storm

Ports along the storm's path are restricting inbound and outbound traffic ahead of the storm, with many planning to close in the next day.

Lightering operations were paused off of Galveston, Texas, starting Monday night due to high seas, and the Louisiana Offshore Oil Port export/import facility said it was following its inclement weather plans, which includes shutting down ahead of a storm like Francine.

The port of Houston closed to both inbound and outbound vessel traffic at 1pm ET Tuesday due to worsening weather conditions from Francine, a ship agent said. The US Coast Guard's captain of the port expected port condition Zulu, where gale force winds are anticipated within 12 hours and port operations are suspended, to be in place by 7pm ET Tuesday.

In Louisiana, terminal operations at the port of New Orleans will be closed Wednesday, with operators expected to resume on Thursday.

Operations at the New Orleans Public Belt, which connects major railroads to the port, will continue Tuesday before closing Wednesday and are expected to resume on Thursday.

Offshore crude flows curtailed

Chevron initiated shut-in procedures for its Anchor and Tahiti platforms, 190 miles south of New Orleans, and began transporting all personnel from the facilities. Production from its other operated platforms in the Gulf of Mexico remained at normal levels.

Non-essential staff were also being removed from the Big Foot and Jack/St. Malo platforms, around 225 miles and 280 south of New Orleans, respectively.

Crude from Tahiti is transported to the Boxer platform, from where it can move along pipelines that feed into multiple streams — Mars, medium sour grades Poseidon and Southern Green Canyon (SGC) — as well as lighter sour grades Eugene Island and Bonito. Production from the recently-started Anchor platform feeds into the Amberjack pipeline, which carries crude into the Mars stream.

Mars has been heard trading at 70-90¢/bl discounts to the US benchmark in Cushing, Oklahoma, on Tuesday, rising over the day from a volume-weighted average discount of 96¢/bl on Monday. Francine's path over Louisiana means it has the potential to weigh more on refinery demand there than on offshore crude production.

ExxonMobil said all staff had been transported off the Hoover platform, located about 200 miles south of Houston, and operations shut-in, while Shell said it was shutting in production at its nearby Perdido platform after earlier pausing drilling operations from the facility.

Hoover and Perdido both feed into ExxonMobil's Hoover Offshore Oil Pipeline System (HOOPS), that delivers the HOOPS Blend to the Texas Gulf coast. HOOPS Blend is a medium sour crude that is not actively traded in the spot market. Competing Texas-delivered medium sour SGC was discussed at a 70¢/bl discount to the US benchmark today, which is where it traded in the prior session when narrowed its discount by about 35¢/bl from ahead of the weekend.

So far, no major problems are expected at BP's offshore facilities in the region.

Non-essential personnel have been evacuated from Shell's Enchilada/Salsa and Auger assets, located about 120 miles south of Vermillion Bay, Louisiana.

By Stephen Cunningham, Tray Swanson and Amanda Smith

Related news posts

Argus illuminates the markets by putting a lens on the areas that matter most to you. The market news and commentary we publish reveals vital insights that enable you to make stronger, well-informed decisions. Explore a selection of news stories related to this one.

News

03/05/25

Opec+ eight to agree another accelerated hike for June

London, 3 May (Argus) — A core group of eight Opec+ members look set to today to accelerate, for a second consecutive month, their plan to unwind some of their production cuts, four delegates told Argus . As it did for May, the group would again raise its collective output target by 411,000 b/d in June, three times as much as it had planned in its original roadmap to gradually unwind 2.2mn b/d of crude production cuts by the middle of next year. The original plan envisaged a slow and steady unwind over 18 months from April, with monthly increments of about 137,000 b/d. But today's decision would mean that the eight — Saudi Arabia, Russia, the UAE, Kuwait, Iraq, Algeria, Oman and Kazakhstan — will have unwound almost half of the 2.2mn b/d cut in the space of just three months. The decision to maintain this accelerated pace into June would be somewhat surprising, particularly given the weakness in oil prices and the outlook for the global economy. The eight's decision last month to deliver a three-in-one hike in May was seen as a key reason for the recent slide in oil prices, alongside US President Donald Trump's tariff policies. Front month Ice Brent futures have fallen by about $13/bl since early April to stand at just over $61/bl. While Opec+ has said that it is acting to support an expected rise in summer demand, the decision to speed up the output increases once again appears to be driven by a desire to send a message to countries that have persistently breached their production targets — most notably Kazakhstan and Iraq. By Aydin Calik, Bachar Halabi and Nader Itayim Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Find out more

News

Mexico bets on new contract model to lift gas output

02/05/25

News

02/05/25

Mexico bets on new contract model to lift gas output

Mexico City, 2 May (Argus) — Mexico's push to raise domestic gas output to 5 Bcf/d by 2030 depends on a new shared participation model designed to attract private investment, with four strategic gas fields prioritized as tenders begin. State-owned Pemex this week released the detailed guidelines for the mixed production scheme, first introduced in February. The model guarantees Pemex at least a 40pc share of production and gives the company wide discretion to set contract terms and choose the bidding process — including no-bid awards. But interest in the new contracts is expected to center on Mexican firms with close ties to President Claudia Sheinbaum's administration, such as Carlos Slim's Grupo Carso, according to market sources. "With these guidelines, Pemex can finally pick and choose who they want, how they want," said Miriam Grunstein, a former adviser to energy regulator CRE and senior partner at Brilliant Energy Consulting. "The downside is they are likely to turn to Mexican firms that lack the technical experience for complex projects, rather than international companies with the know-how for deep-water or unconventional plays," Grunstein said. "This scheme isn't made for companies like BHP, Total, or Eni," added Eduardo Prud'homme, former technical director at Cenagas and co-partner at consultancy Gadex. "Pemex doesn't want operators as partners. Though it is perfect for Carso." A relative newcomer to the upstream sector, Carso is one of the government's most important contractors for infrastructure projects and stands to gain on future business whether or not the upstream partnerships succeed. Prud'homme doubts international majors looking for a one-off deal would be willing to take on the heavily regulated, high-risk projects when the maximum stake is 60pc. "If you fail, Pemex will not share the loss," said Prud'homme. "If you succeed, Pemex decides how much to share." Pemex management said it plans to launch 17 projects under the new scheme this year. It remains unclear how many of these will focus on gas development. Still, gas is a core focus. Pemex's 2025–2030 business plan allocates Ps238bn (US$12.1bn) to gas projects in pursuit of the 5 Bcf/d goal. Four key fields — Burgos, Quesqui, Ixachi and Bakte — are expected to provide 54pc of total projected output. Carso is already active, partnering with Pemex on the complex deep-water Lakach gas project, which is now expected to migrate from a service contract to the new mixed contract model. Slim began renegotiations in February after the model was announced. Carso has also expanded upstream, buying into the oil-rich Zama project in December. In March, Sheinbaum confirmed the government is in talks with Carso to partner on Ixachi. Turning the tide Still, gas output continues to decline. An analysis by Mexican think tank IMCO found that Pemex and its farmout partners this year posted their lowest first-quarter gas production in 15 years. In the first quarter, Pemex produced 4.408 Bcf/d of gas, down by 8pc from the same period in 2024 and 12pc lower compared with the same quarter 2023. The 367 MMcf/d annual decline marks the steepest first-quarter drop since 2018, when output fell by 536 MMcf/d year over year. On the positive side, Pemex's natural gas production in March ticked 0.3pc higher from the previous month to 4.39 Bcf/d – marking the second consecutive month of increases after February output was up 1.3pc from January. By James Young Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

News

Eight Opec+ members weigh further acceleration

02/05/25

News

02/05/25

Eight Opec+ members weigh further acceleration

Dubai, 2 May (Argus) — A core group of eight Opec+ producers meet on 3 May to decide whether to repeat last month's surprise move to add extra oil to an increasingly weak market. The main motivation for the group of eight's decision to triple the size of their output increase for May remains, suggesting that a repeat could be on the cards for June. As the dust began to settle on last month's decision, it became clear that raising their combined output target by 411,000 b/d in one month, rather than the scheduled 137,000 b/d, was rooted not only in stronger fundamentals, as the official communique suggests, but also in a desire to send a message to those countries that have persistently breached their production targets. The main culprits are Iraq and Kazakhstan, which have consistently failed to keep their production in check since the start of last year (see graph). The two are left with a lot to do by way of compensating for those excess barrels between now and the middle of next year (see graph). Russia, too, has overproduced during that period, but to a much lesser degree relative to its overall output. That persistent overproduction has been a source of deep frustration among other countries in the group of eight — principally the core of Opec's Mideast Gulf members — that have "sacrificed", in the words of one delegate, to adhere to their targets. April's decision was a nod to those that have sacrificed and a sharp warning to Kazakhstan and Iraq to do better and to do so quickly. Two delegates stressed to Argus at the time that the coming weeks would be critical for Baghdad and Astana to show that they were serious about abiding by their quotas. Failure to do so could trigger another "surprise" move for June, they said, possibly even another three-in-one hike. It was little surprise, then, that some ill-timed comments by Kazakh energy minister Yerlan Akkenzhenov on 23 April — in which he explicitly said Astana's national interests take priority over its Opec+ commitments, and that the country simply "cannot" reduce output — triggered serious speculation about whether the eight may repeat last month's decision. March data from Iraq, too, were not ideal, in that while they showed that Iraq did produce below quota, its efforts to compensate fell well short. Timing is everything Some in the group of eight may well be tempted to go down that route, thinking a second consecutive "shock" could deliver the desired wake-up call that the first did not. Two delegate sources confirmed to Argus that another 411,000 b/d target increase for June remains a distinct possibility. But such a course of action would be risky. Crude is already trading $12/bl below where it was when the group last met, and demand-side concerns are again on the rise because of the potential impact of US trade tariffs. The Opec secretariat and the IEA downgraded 2025 oil demand growth forecasts in their latest oil market outlooks. Opec revised its forecast down to 1.3mn b/d from 1.45mn b/d in its previous report. The IEA revised down its forecast by a sizeable 310,000 b/d to 730,000 b/d for 2025, despite "robust" consumption in the first quarter. It downgraded its forecast for April-December by 400,000 b/d. Another three-in-one hike for June would be "difficult" to imagine in this market, one delegate says. With that said, the eight's options include a "standard" 137,000 b/d rise to the group's collective target for June, in line with the original schedule, or, at a push, a two-in-one hike. That would not only send that internal message to the least compliant of the group, but also act as a show of good faith towards US president Donald Trump ahead of his visit to Riyadh, Abu Dhabi and Doha on 13-16 May. By Nader Itayim, Bachar Halabi and Aydin Calik Opec+ overproducers Opec+ compensation plan Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

News

Chevron has not discussed Kazakhstan Opec+ target: CEO

02/05/25

News

02/05/25

Chevron has not discussed Kazakhstan Opec+ target: CEO

London, 2 May (Argus) — Chevron has not held discussions with Kazakhstan about the country's Opec+ targets, chief executive Mike Wirth said today. Kazakhstan's production surged to a record 1.79mn b/d in March , following the start up of a new project at the Chevron-led Tengiz field in January. This left the country 322,000 b/d above its Opec+ target of 1.468mn b/d for the month. Kazakhstan has repeatedly vowed to comply with its Opec+ commitments, and said it would ask foreign operators at its Tengiz and Kashagan fields to reduce output. "We don't engage in discussions about Opec or Opec+ targets," Wirth said on Chevron's first-quarter earnings call today. "The barrels we produce at [Tengiz] are of high value to the government, they're important to their fiscal balance and historically those barrels have not been curtailed." Tengiz production was 901,000 b/d in March, compared with around 600,000-660,000 b/d before the new project came online. Italy's Eni, which is a key partner at the 400,000 b/d Kashagan field, made similar remarks last week. "Neither the operator of the asset, nor the shareholder and the contracting company have been engaged by the authority for any production cuts," said Eni's chief financial officer Francesco Gattei. Kazakhstan is one of the Opec+ alliance's largest overproducers, and there has been no indication that it has tried to reduce output in line with its targets. Kazakhstan's continued overproduction is understood to have contributed towards the decision by eight Opec+ members to add extra crude to the market in May . The eight will meet on 3 May to decide on production levels for June. Two delegate sources told Argus that another 411,000 b/d target increase for June remains a distinct possibility. By Aydin Calik Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

News

Carney to meet with Trump on 6 May

02/05/25

News

02/05/25

Carney to meet with Trump on 6 May

Calgary, 2 May (Argus) — Canadian prime minister Mark Carney will meet with US president Donald Trump on 6 May to try to resolve an ongoing trade war while also discussing the future economic relationship between the two countries. Carney announced his Washington travel plans Friday in his first media appearance following his 28 April election victory , where his Liberal party won 169 of a possible 343 seats in Parliament. Carney's predecessor Justin Trudeau in late November tried to diffuse a trade war before it began in a meeting with Trump, but subsequently was on the receiving end of public taunts about Canada's sovereignty and becoming the US' 51st state. Trump did not say or insinuate that Canada should become the 51st state when they spoke this week, according to Carney. The US has imposed a 25pc tariff on Canadian steel and aluminum since 13 March and Canadian automobiles since 9 April, prompting retaliatory tariffs by Canada. The trade war sparked a wave of anti-US sentiment and became a focal point of the election, contributing to a remarkable rebound for the Liberal party who only months ago faced slim odds of returning to power. "As I've stressed repeatedly, our old relationship, based on steadily increasing integration, is over," said Carney. "The questions now, are how our nations will cooperate in the future, and where we, in Canada, will move on." Carney has vowed to make Canada the fastest growing economy in the G7 with new alliances abroad and yet-to-be decided infrastructure projects playing a key role. "Canada does have other options and that is clear," said Carney, speaking in French. Carney's new cabinet will be sworn in during the week of 12 May and Parliament will return to session on 26 May. Absent will be Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre, who suffered a surprising loss in his constituency and was painted by the Liberals as being too much like Trump. He will be on the outside looking in unless a byelection occurs, which would likely require a Conservative surrendering their seat. If the Conservatives do trigger a byelection to try to get Poilievre back into Parliament, Carney said he will ensure that it happens "as soon as possible". By Brett Holmes Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Business intelligence reports

Get concise, trustworthy and unbiased analysis of the latest trends and developments in oil and energy markets. These reports are specially created for decision makers who don’t have time to track markets day-by-day, minute-by-minute.

Learn more