EU eyes clean industry drive, climate policy tweaks

Market: Electricity, Emissions, Fertilizers, Hydrogen, Natural gas
26/02/25

The European Commission today published a wide range of proposals aimed at boosting the bloc's economy, clean energy and technology, while bringing down energy costs. Several legislative proposals aim at simplification, notably on climate reporting.

The commission also announced plans to expand demand aggregation and joint purchase schemes, currently in place for natural gas, to other raw materials, including lithium. And an EU critical raw material centre would jointly purchase raw materials on behalf of interested companies.

EU climate commissioner Wopke Hoekstra said the commission is going "all out" to protect and advance its economy. "There's no question of turning our backs on climate action," he added, noting the need for a strong business case for decarbonisation.

The commission has said it is "staying the course" in terms of its recommended target for cutting greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 90pc by 2040, compared with 1990 levels. Hoekstra noted that the commission did not today present 2040 GHG proposals because of the number of other plans unveiled.

It is "very clear" that the EU is moving away from Russian gas and also from fossil fuels, energy commissioner Dan Jorgensen said, detailing an affordable energy plan. But a draft document seen by Argus showed plans for more flexibility on long-term supply deals and a "Japanese model" of investment in LNG export terminals.

Hoekstra pointed to a new proposed EU bank for industrial decarbonisation, funded with money from the bloc's emissions trading system (ETS). The proposed bank could raise €100bn ($105bn) for industrial decarbonisation projects, including €20bn from the ETS innovation funds, over the next ten years. And that figure could hit €400bn, if leveraged with private funds, Hoekstra said.

The commission aims to simplify the bloc's carbon border adjustment mechanism (CBAM). Hoekstra promised exemption for 90pc of the firms currently covered, while later proposals would see changes to scope and new products. Officials note that the exemption does not mean a "delay" of CBAM.

The commission is also promising to promote clean products with new public procurement requirements in 2026. And a voluntary carbon intensity label for industrial products will be launched with steel in 2025, followed by cement. The commission also updated state aid rules to boost decarbonisation and clean tech, pledging a new, simplified framework by June. The hydrogen industry, commenting on a draft of the state aid framework, noted a lack of flexibility for EU states to promote demand and close the price difference between fossil- and non-fossil-based hydrogen.

And the commission published eased due diligence obligations for some 6,000 EU and 900 non-EU large firms that require business models compatible with keeping global temperatures within 1.5°C of pre-industrial levels, in line with the Paris climate agreement. Qatari energy minister Saad Sherida al-Kaabi has warned that the country could not continue continued LNG exports if the EU did not "thoroughly" review its corporate sustainability due diligence directive (CSDDD).

A senior EU official noted a "misunderstanding" on due diligence over a maximum fine of 5pc for firms' total worldwide revenue that would only be applied to "egregious" breaches of the CSDDD, including for serious violations of human rights.

By Dafydd ab Iago

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11/05/25

India, Pakistan reach US-mediated, fragile ceasefire

Dubai, 11 May (Argus) — A US-mediated ceasefire reached on Saturday between nuclear-armed neighbours India and Pakistan is still holding, following four days of intense fighting. "After a long night of talks mediated by the United States, I am pleased to announce that India and Pakistan have agreed to a FULL AND IMMEDIATE CEASEFIRE," US president Donald Trump posted on his social media platform Truth Social on Saturday. India and Pakistan will now start negotiations on a broad set of issues at a neutral site, US secretary of state Marco Rubio said on social media platform X. India's military on 7 May launched attacks against targets in Pakistan and Pakistan-administered Kashmir in retaliation for an April terrorist attack that killed dozens. But by Saturday, the two countries seemed to be edging toward all-out war, as their militaries targeted each other's bases. India's foreign minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar confirmed the ceasefire, saying on X that "India has consistently maintained a firm and uncompromising stance against terrorism in all its forms and manifestations. It will continue to do so." Pakistan "responded positively to the ceasefire proposal for regional and global peace, and its people and I hope that dialogue will now be chosen for resolution of water and Kashmir disputes," Pakistan's prime minister Shehbaz Sharif said in a televised address. Trump also praised leaders of both countries for agreeing to halt the aggression and said he would "substantially" increase trade with them, although this was "not even discussed". Kashmir is a contested area between India and Pakistan, and the two have twice gone to a war over the region. Fear of the conflict spreading roiled global financial markets. India is the region's second-biggest oil buyer after China — importing around 4.5mn b/d last year — and a major customer for other commodities, including LNG and coal. Pakistan also imports fertilizers, coal, oil products and LNG. The escalation between the two severely limited direct trade between them. Airlines in the region as well as some Mideast Gulf carriers rerouted or cancelled flights to avoid Pakistani airspace. But the Pakistan Airports Authority said on Saturday that "Pakistan's airspace has been fully reopened for all types of flights." By Bachar Halabi Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Ethiopia’s EABC still needs up to 400,000t DAP in 2025

09/05/25

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09/05/25

Ethiopia’s EABC still needs up to 400,000t DAP in 2025

London, 9 May (Argus) — Ethiopian Agricultural Businesses (EABC) will close a tender to buy 425,390t of DAP on 13 May. Argus estimates it needs to secure the majority of this volume to meet the country's phosphates demand for the 2025 application season. Across all tenders to buy DAP that EABC opened between August 2024-May 2025, the importer awarded 1.16mn t across 18 cargoes. Of this awarded total, Argus estimates only up to 750,000t is likely to be delivered to Ethiopia in a timely manner. This is because some of these awarded cargoes — largely Chinese — did not have firm backing from producers. And the bulk of the awarded Chinese cargoes — which made up almost half of all the awarded cargoes — were not shipped while Chinese producers focused on covering domestic demand. In recent years, Ethiopia had imported phosphate in the form of NPS and NPSB through EABC tenders, generally all from Morocco. But in August 2024, ahead of the 2025 domestic season, EABC switched from importing NPS to asking for DAP 18-46. In its last tender to buy NPS, issued in August 2023, EABC asked for around 1mn t of NPSB and 332,000t of NPS containing 37.7pc and 38pc P2O5, respectively. On a P2O5 basis, the 2023 NPS tender asked for a total of around 1.1mn t of DAP-equivalent. This implies EABC needs to line up a further 350,000-400,000t of DAP, assuming a similar demand for P2O5 as last year. Argus line-up data shows 1.046mn t of NPS shipped from Morocco's Jorf Lasfar to Djibouti in the 12 months following August 2023. On a P2O5 basis, this is probably equivalent to only around 900,000t of DAP. EABC would need to buy 150,000-200,000t more to reach this level. Chinese DAP will probably dominate offers into EABC's 13 May tender. After a hiatus of around six months, Chinese suppliers will likely be able to apply for customs inspections under the CIQ system from mid-May for DAP and MAP cargoes. This implies Chinese DAP exports will resume from as early as late May, in time to meet EABC's requirements. Time running out for Ethiopia's season EABC is likely to struggle to secure the remaining DAP needed before the end of Ethiopia's domestic season. Planting during Ethiopia's Meher — the main rainy season — broadly spans from March to June. In its latest tender to buy DAP, closing on 13 May, EABC asked for a loading period up to mid-July. In 2024, the final cargoes under EABC's 2023-24 tender to buy NPS had already arrived in Djibouti by that time. Under the 23 April and 13 May EABC tenders, cargoes loading in June — particularly from closer origins like Saudi Arabia — could still arrive in time to service the tail end of Ethiopia's DAP season. But the bulk of the country's application season will likely have been missed by then. EABC's next tenders will likely be targeting supply for the 2026 domestic season. DAP is more expensive Tender awards are limited by EABC's allocation of funds for DAP before offers are collected. The importer received eight 60,000t offers ranging from $696.27-748.00/t fob with 30 days of credit in its 23 April tender, and awarded only the lowest offer before scrapping the tender and issuing a fresh one. It rejected revised offers in its 20 February and 25 March tenders, which were above its counterbids at $625/t fob and $647.19/t fob, respectively. Awards in the 13 May tender will likely remain difficult because prices in the global DAP market have risen. DAP prices in India — the global DAP benchmark and a key competitor to Ethiopia — are now around $720/t cfr, up significantly from $590/t cfr at the beginning of August 2024. DAP could go elsewhere Any DAP which Ethiopia does not acquire will find willing buyers elsewhere in south and southeast Asia. India began May with around 1.64mn t of DAP in stock — well below a comfortable 2mn t minimum — and will need to boost imports to build its inventories. Bangladesh will likely issue a private-sector tender in the coming weeks, probably seeking around 500,000t or more of DAP. China is traditionally its main supplier, especially through its private-sector tenders. Demand in southeast Asia has generally seen an uptick because of high rainfall, and many buyers have been holding out for the resumption of Chinese exports. DAP prices have reached $700-715/t cfr southeast Asia on latest sales, but offers are climbing higher. And Pakistan will likely step into the import market to secure tonnes for July-August arrival, ahead of the peak of its domestic season from the end of the third quarter. EABC received offers for Jordanian and Saudi Arabian DAP loading in May in its 23 April tender. It rejected the offers, allowing India to buy probably the same cargoes at $719.50/t cfr earlier this month. By Adrien Seewald Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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White House ends use of carbon cost

09/05/25

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09/05/25

White House ends use of carbon cost

Washington, 9 May (Argus) — The US is ending its use of a metric for estimating the economic damages from greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, the latest reversal of climate change policies supported by President Donald Trump's predecessors. The White House Office of Management and Budget (OMB) this week directed federal agencies to stop using the social cost of carbon as part of any regulatory or decision-making practices, except in cases where it is required by law, citing the need "remove any barriers put in place by previous administrations" that restrict the ability of the US to get the most benefit "from our abundant natural resources". "Under this guidance, the circumstances where agencies will need to engage in monetized greenhouse gas emission analysis will be few to none," OMB said in a 5 May memo to federal agencies. In cases where such an analysis is required by law, agencies should limit their work "to the minimum consideration required" and address only the domestic effects, unless required by law. OMB said these steps are needed to ensure sound regulatory decisions and avoid misleading the public because the uncertainties of such analyses "are too great". The budget office issued the guidance in response to an executive order Trump issued on his first day in office, which also disbanded an interagency working group on the social cost of carbon and called for faster permitting for domestic oil and gas production and the termination of various orders issued by former president Joe Biden related to combating climate change. The metric, first established by the administration of former US president Barack Obama, has been subject to a tug of war between Democrats and Republicans. Trump, in his first term, slashed the value of the social cost of carbon, a move Biden later reversed . Biden then directed agencies to fold the metric into their procurement processes and environmental reviews. The US began relying on the cost estimate in 2010, offering a way to estimate the full costs and benefits of climate-related regulations. The Biden administration estimated the global cost of emitting CO2 at $120-$340/metric tonne and included it in rules related to cars, trucks, residential appliances, ozone standards, methane emission rules, refineries and federal oil and gas leases. By Michael Ball Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Brazil's inflation accelerates to 5.53pc in April

09/05/25

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09/05/25

Brazil's inflation accelerates to 5.53pc in April

Sao Paulo, 9 May (Argus) — Brazil's annualized inflation rate rose to 5.53pc in April, accelerating for a third month despite six central bank rate hikes since September aimed at cooling the economy. The country's annualized inflation accelerated from 5.48pc in March and 5.06pc in February, according to government statistics agency IBGE. Food and beverages rose by an annual 7.81pc, up from 7.68pc in March. Ground coffee increased at an annual 80.2pc, accelerating from 77.78pc in the month prior. Still, soybean oil prices decelerated to 22.83pc in April from 24.36pc in March. Domestic power consumption costs rose to 0.71pc from 0.33pc a month earlier. Transportation costs decelerated to 5.49pc from 6.05pc in March. Gasoline prices slowed to a 8.86pc gain from 10.89pc a month earlier. The increase in ethanol and diesel prices decelerated as well to 13.9pc and 6.42pc in April from 20.08pc and 8.13pc in March, respectively. The hike in compressed natural gas prices (CNG) fell to 3.5pc from 3.92pc a month prior. Inflation posted the seventh consecutive monthly increase above the central bank's goal of 3pc, with tolerance of 1.5 percentage point above or below. Brazil's central bank increased its target interest rate for the sixth time in a row to 14.75pc on 7 May. The bank has been trying to counter soaring inflation as it has recently changed the way it tracks its goal. Monthly cooldown But Brazil's monthly inflation decelerated to 0.43pc in April from a 0.56pc gain in March. Food and beverages decelerated on a monthly basis to 0.82pc in April from a 1.17pc increase a month earlier, according to IBGE. Housing costs also decelerated to 0.24pc from 0.14pc in March. Transportation costs contracted by 0.38pc and posted the largest monthly contraction in April. Diesel prices posted the largest contraction at 1.27pc in April. Petrobras made three diesel price readjustments in April-May. By Maria Frazatto Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Carbon credit method may limit Australia's ACCU supply

09/05/25

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09/05/25

Carbon credit method may limit Australia's ACCU supply

Sydney, 9 May (Argus) — A potentially ineffective design of the long-delayed Integrated Farm and Land Management (IFLM) method developed by the Australian federal government might exclude thousands of landowners from the Australian Carbon Credit Unit (ACCU) market, curbing potential supply, industry participants have warned. The IFLM method, the first in Australia to combine multiple activities that store carbon in soil and vegetation in a single method , could be potentially set with a "binary framework" classifying land types as either cleared or uncleared, following a recent update from the Department of Climate Change, Energy, the Environment and Water (DCCEEW). But focusing on a single binary factor misses a broad range of other important influences, such as fire, over grazing, soil disturbance, feral animal impacts and climate events, co-chief executive of carbon project developer Climate Friendly, Skye Glenday, told Argus . It would particularly affect rangeland areas which cover around 70pc of Australia and include a large proportion of the Indigenous Estate, she added. The cleared/uncleared definition overlooks large areas of degraded land in Australia and is "not helpful" in understanding why the land is in that condition, carbon developer Australian Integrated Carbon (Ai Carbon) chief executive Adam Townley told delegates this week at lobby group Carbon Market Institute (CMI)'s Carbon Farming Industry Forum in New South Wales. A narrow definition of cleared and uncleared land effectively locks out large portions of the carbon market, decimating Western Australia, South Australia and the Northern Territory, Townley said. A CMI taskforce led by Glenday and Townley is recommending that the DCCEEW instead use the Vegetation Assets, States and Transitions (VAST) framework, which is already used by the Australian government to classify and report on the condition of native vegetation in its flagship State of Environment reports. This condition-based approach would allow developers to establish projects in large areas of existing native vegetation that are significantly degraded because of Australia's land-use history, but which still have forests and woodlands, according to the taskforce. The projects would then be able to restore health and increase carbon storage within these areas, the taskforce claims. Transition potential The right framework could incentivise between two-thirds and three-quarters of the registered land projects in eligible methods to transition to the future IFLM method, according to Glenday. Eligible methods would start with the key human-induced regeneration (HIR) ACCU method, which expired on 30 September 2023, as well as the Environmental Plantings (EP) and soil carbon methods. There are around 2,000 land-based projects registered, with about 400-500 in HIR, 50-100 in environmental plantings, and around 700 or more in soil. The number of projects that will transition will likely depend on the final transition rules and the package of activities each land manager wants to undertake, Glenday told Argus . Carbon developer Regenco will explore the potential of migrating all its HIR projects into the IFLM method, managing director and chief executive Greg Noonan told Argus on the sidelines of the CMI event. Transitioning to the new method would allow existing projects to have much larger land areas accountable for carbon sequestration, compared with around just 20pc on average under the HIR method, although decisions would depend on the additional ACCU generation potential for each project to compensate for migrating costs, Noonan said. Some developers said they will also consider transitioning their projects, but others expressed frustration and scepticism over the timeframe and final determination of the method, which was first proposed in 2019. There is a clear urgency in discussing new ACCU methods under consideration to address a current shortfall in availability of land-based methods that is restricting industry investment and engagement, CMI chief executive John Connor said. But delegates welcomed the policy certainty provided by the re-election of the Labor government , he added. "We're very hopeful that the IFLM method is legislated this year, and that's what we're working towards with all the stakeholders," Glenday said. But it would take at least up to nearly three years for the first IFLM projects to go from implementation to first ACCU issuances, she added. ACCU generic, generic (No AD) and HIR spot prices ended the week to 9 May at A$35 ($22.50), dropping slightly from a week earlier as the market failed to receive a boost from the Labor party's re-election. By Juan Weik Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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