Generic Hero BannerGeneric Hero Banner
Latest market news

Trump coal plant bailout renews first term fight

  • Market: Coal, Emissions, Natural gas
  • 09/04/25

President Donald Trump's effort to stop the retirement of coal-fired power plants is reminiscent of a 2017 attempt that faltered in the face of widespread industry opposition.

Trump, in an executive order signed on Tuesday, directed the US Department of Energy (DOE) to tap into emergency powers to stop the retirement of coal-fired plants and other large plants it believes are critical to grid reliability. The order sets a 30-day deadline for DOE to decide which plants are critical based on a new methodology that will analyze if reserve margins, or the percent of unused capacity at peak demand, are at an "acceptable" level.

The initiative shares similarities to Trump's unsuccessful effort in his first term to bail out coal and nuclear plants. In the 2017 effort, Trump backed a "grid resiliency" proposal to compensate power plants with 90 days of on-site fuel. But an unusual coalition of natural gas industry groups, manufacturers, renewable producers and environmentalists united against the idea, warning it would upend power markets and cost consumers billions of dollars each year. The US Federal Energy Regulatory Commission voted 5-0 to reject the proposal.

It remains unclear if a similarly sized coalition will emerge to fight Trump's latest proposal, under which DOE would use emergency powers in section 202(c) of the Federal Power Act to keep some coal plants and other large power plants operating. Industry groups have largely been avoiding taking positions that could be seen as critical of Trump.

Environmentalists say they strongly oppose keeping coal plants operating using emergency powers. Doing so would mean more air pollution and greenhouse gas emissions, they say, and higher costs for consumers. Environmental groups say they are hoping other industries affected by the potential bailout will eventually speak out against the initiative.

"The silence from those who know better is deafening," Center for Biological Diversity climate law institute legal director Jason Rylander said. "I hope that we will start to see more resistance to these dangerous policies before significant damage is done."

DOE said it was "already hard at work" to implement Trump's executive order, which was paired with other orders that were meant to support coal mining and coal production. US energy secretary Chris Wright said today that reviving coal will increase the reliability of the electrical grid and bring down electricity costs, but he has not shared further details on the 202(c) initiative.

Trying to litigate the program could be "tricky", and section 202(c) orders have never successfully been challenged in court, in part because they are usually short-term orders, Harvard Law School Electricity Law Initiative director Ari Peskoe said. But opponents could challenge them by focusing on "numerous legal problems", he said, such as not allowing public comment or running afoul of a US Supreme Court precedent that prohibits agencies from attempting to decide "major questions" without clear congressional authorization.

"Here DOE would use a little-used statute explicitly written for short-term emergencies in order to PREVENT a change in the US energy mix," Peskoe said.

A projected 8.1GW of coal-fired generation is set to retire this year, equivalent to nearly 5pc of the coal fleet, the US Energy Information Administration said last month. Electric utilities often decide which plants to retire years in advance, allowing them to defer maintenance and to forgo capital investments in aging facilities. Keeping coal plants running could require exemptions from environmental rules or pricey capital investments, the costs of which would likely be distributed among other ratepayers.


Sharelinkedin-sharetwitter-sharefacebook-shareemail-share

Related news posts

Argus illuminates the markets by putting a lens on the areas that matter most to you. The market news and commentary we publish reveals vital insights that enable you to make stronger, well-informed decisions. Explore a selection of news stories related to this one.

News
13/05/25

Australia’s Macquarie unwinds coking coal funding ban

Australia’s Macquarie unwinds coking coal funding ban

Sydney, 13 May (Argus) — Australian investment bank Macquarie has changed its investment rules to fund coking coal mines, in a partial reversal of its 2021 coal financing ban. The bank made the change in November 2024, it said in its annual report for the year ended 31 March, released last week. It will now make short-term funding deals lasting less than 12 months for coking coal developments, to help producers buy, expand, or run coking coal mines. Macquarie's rule change still bans long-term investments in coking coal projects. There are few viable alternatives to coking coal for the steel and industrial sectors, Macquarie said. The company has maintained its ban on thermal coal financing, apart from specific emissions reduction projects. It is also working on supporting emissions reduction projects in the Australian oil and gas sectors, although it did not disclose which projects. Macquarie is not the only bank moving away from fossil fuel financing. Australian bank ANZ will stop lending capital to companies heavily involved in the thermal coal sector by 2030. It reduced its lending to thermal coal mining firms by 85pc between 2015 and July 2024,it said in July last year. It also stopped [funding new upstream oil and gas projects](https://direct.argusmedia.com/newsandanalysis/article/2566501), with limited exceptions, in May 2024. Macquarie has expanded its climate finance role over recent years. The bank set up a renewable energy business to fund utility-scale projects in Australia and New Zealand in November 2023. Macquarie is also involved in carbon markets. The company is continuing to help clients with compliance and voluntary carbon markets, including in newer locations like China, the company said, without disclosing further details. It has also purchased and retired 59,164t of CO2 equivalent of Australian Carbon Credit Units and other voluntary offsets to cover business travel in its 2024-25 financial year ended 31 March. By Avinash Govind Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Find out more
News

Ukrainian gas imports double in May


12/05/25
News
12/05/25

Ukrainian gas imports double in May

London, 12 May (Argus) — Ukraine's gas imports have nearly doubled in the first 10 days of May from April, although still only the Polish and Hungarian routes are being used. Ukraine's net imports — after netting off inflows and outflows to and from Moldova — averaged 140 GWh/d on 1-10 May, nearly double the 73 GWh/d average in April, the latest available data from transmission system operators show. The increase has been driven by flows from Hungary at VIP Bereg rising to near full capacity of 103 GWh/d from 60 GWh/d, and a smaller 12 GWh/d increase from Poland ( see flows graph ). Net flows to Moldova also fell to 13 GWh/d from 23 GWh/d, leaving more gas in Ukraine. But imports would need to ramp up significantly to match the 4.6bn m³ that state-owned incumbent Naftogaz estimated would be needed over the entire summer. If Ukrainian net imports remain at 140 GWh/d until 15 October, around the typical start of the heating season, then cumulative net imports would reach around 22TWh, or around 2.1bn m³ using Ukraine's standard 10.5 kWh/m³ conversion rate. VIP Bereg is already flowing at near maximum capacity, as is the interconnection point with Poland, meaning that any additional flows will need to arrive from Slovakia at Budince or from Romania at Isaccea, both particularly expensive transit routes. Demand for third-quarter capacity along the Bereg route continues to outstrip available capacity, with the auction now in its sixth day and still not concluded. So far, Naftogaz has announced few public supply deals, although it has contracted 300mn m³ of LNG from Poland's Orlen , with some market participants saying Orlen would supply as much as 1bn m³. The firm has €410mn in funds from the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development , which it hopes will finance the purchase of around 1bn m³. But it is unclear where funding for additional purchases will come from, and the government does not intend to increase household or business tariffs to cover Naftogaz's higher costs. Even if Ukraine imports as much as Naftogaz said it will need, the country could still face shortages in the winter . Ukraine started the injection season in mid-April at the lowest stock level in at least a decade , and while Naftogaz managed to restore more than half of the output it lost in February following attacks on its production infrastructure, Ukrainian production still remains well below pre-2022 levels. Hungary maintains pivotal hub role Hungary has become an increasingly important transit hub over the past year, and Ukraine's import needs have increased its prominence further. With VIP Bereg at a 99pc utilisation rate this month and continued exports northward to Slovakia, Hungary has been pulling in more gas from other sources to maintain these flows. Inflows from Serbia at Horgos, where Russian gas arrives into Hungary through Turkish Stream, rose to 244 GWh/d on 1-10 May from 223 GWh/d in April, just below the point's technical capacity of 246 GWh/d. And inflows from Austria have also increased considerably, rising to 139 GWh/d from 92 GWh/d, while receipts from Romania more than doubled to 40 GWh/d from 19 GWh/d ( see Hungarian flows graph ). Hungarian prompt prices have risen to a premium over Austria and Romania in order to attract more gas ( see prices graph ). Slovakia remains at a premium to Hungary, though, driven by the need to incentivise flows from Hungary now that Russian transit through Ukraine has ceased. Hungarian transmission tariffs remain significantly cheaper than in Slovakia or Romania, so demand for Hungarian capacity at quarterly auctions last week held strong . The bookings suggest that the recent flow configuration is set to continue in the second half of summer, with all import capacity from Serbia booked and most available capacity from Austria. The export route from Romania to Ukraine remains unpopular, not just because of the high transmission tariffs paid in Romania and Moldova, but also because of the conditional nature of the flows. An equal amount of gas must be brought into Romania at Negru Voda 1 as is exported at Isaccea 1, as they are part of the same Trans-Balkan Pipeline string. Additionally, anyone hoping to bring gas from Greece or Bulgaria up to Ukraine must secure capacity in as many as 10 or more auctions, which take place simultaneously given that the transit route crosses in and out of Moldova several times. Even one failed auction could make exports along this route impossible. By Brendan A'Hearn Hungarian DA vs nearby markets €/MWh Ukrainian net flows by point GWh Hungarian net flows by point GWh Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

News

US shale M&A faces headwinds on oil price rout


12/05/25
News
12/05/25

US shale M&A faces headwinds on oil price rout

New York, 12 May (Argus) — Dealmaking in the US shale patch, which had been on a roller-coaster ride in the past few years, is at risk of grinding to a halt as a result of an oil price slump. Just as a growing number of producers are unveiling plans to cut spending and slow activity as crude prices teeter around levels needed to profitably drill wells, prospects for mergers and acquisitions (M&A) in the shale patch are also souring. That marks a departure from the start of 2025 , when dealmakers were expecting a bumper year with recent acquirers looking to offload non-core assets and private equity gearing up to make a return after raising new funds. April brought five deals with a combined value of $2.3bn, bringing the year-to-date total for M&A activity in the US upstream space to $19.2bn, consultancy Enverus says. That was down by 60pc from a year earlier, when the latest round of consolidation was in full sway. "We're just hearing over and over again, across the board, that companies are overwhelmingly sitting on their hands," law firm Sidley partner Stephen Boone says. Recent deals include natural gas giant EQT buying the upstream and midstream assets of privately held Olympus Energy for $1.8bn . Gas is increasingly likely to dominate dealmaking going forward, as not only has the commodity fared better than oil on a relative basis, but investors are likely to be drawn by the US LNG boom and rapid growth of gas-fired power generation demand to meet the energy needs of data centres required for artificial intelligence . "The trouble is, there aren't enough potential gas deals to make up for a drop in oil asset activity, which we do anticipate is going to fall off a cliff," Enverus principal analyst Andrew Dittmar says. Aside from the trade tariff-induced market volatility that has sent crude prices tumbling to four-year lows, a lack of high-quality targets on the oil side also suggests deals will be few and far between this year. Most publicly-held operators will be focused on protecting their bottom line as they remain focused on shareholder returns rather than growth, and might well be reluctant to take on debt to fund deals. And private equity may prefer to bide its time. "That group is likely looking for some sign of a bottom on crude before jumping in, rather than trying to catch a falling knife of asset values," Dittmar says. That is not to say that deals have completely dried up, with Permian Resources agreeing this week to snap up assets in the New Mexico part of the top US shale play from APA for $608mn. But Diamondback Energy, a top Permian producer which has played an active role in the most recent round of M&A, might sum up the view of many with its plan to remain on the sidelines for the time being. Too much noise "We're in the period right now where there's so much noise and volatility that not a lot gets done," Diamondback's president, Kaes Van't Hof, says. "Anything that we would look at would have to be extremely cheap, and I just don't think we're there yet today." Even if some relief comes on the tariff front and the economy avoids a recession, it will take time for deals to pick up again, and that could push a resurgence in dealmaking well into 2026. The fact that public operators have spent the years since the pandemic on repairing balance sheets and focusing on investor payouts might also count against any uptick in transactions anytime soon. "That's actually going to keep M&A down, because now that we see the downturn, we have significantly less distressed companies out there that will be forced to sell, and we have more and more companies that think they are better situated to just ride it out," Sidley's Boone says. By Stephen Cunningham Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

News

Australian PM reaffirms climate priority in new cabinet


12/05/25
News
12/05/25

Australian PM reaffirms climate priority in new cabinet

Sydney, 12 May (Argus) — Australian prime minister Anthony Albanese has reaffirmed renewable energy commitments with cabinet picks after the Labor party's election victory on 3 May. Chris Bowen, who led key changes to the safeguard mechanism , the capacity investment scheme (CIS) and fuel efficiency standards for new passenger and light commercial vehicles, remains minister for climate change and energy. Madeleine King, the minister for resources and northern Australia, retains her cabinet position, while Tanya Plibersek, previously the minister for environment, is now the minister for social services and is replaced by Murray Watt, formerly the minister for workplace relations. In the previous term, Plibersek failed to establish an environment protection authority and reform the Environment Protection and Biodiversity Conservation Act, which was an election promise in 2022, after intervention from Western Australian state minister Roger Cook. Environmental lobby group the Australian Conservation Foundation (ACF) has welcomed Watt, who was also the minister for agriculture for two years to 2024, into his new role. "Having a former agriculture minister in environment increases the opportunities for co-operation on the shared challenges facing nature protection and sustainable agriculture," the ACF said. The ACF also welcomed Chris Bowen in returning to his role as environment minister for his "clear mandate" to continue the energy transition. Josh Wilson remains assistant minister for climate change and energy. Participants in the renewable energy carbon credit industry are urging the new Department of Climate Change, Energy, the Environment and Water to speed up the creation of new Australian Carbon Credit Unit (ACCU) methods in the new government term. They are also seeking greater transparency in ACCU data base , which requires legislative change. And renewable energy companies and lobby groups will be closely following a review of Australia's National Electricity Market wholesale market settings , which will need to be changed following the conclusion of the CIS tenders in 2027 and as Australia transitions to more renewables from its ageing coal-fired plants. By Grace Dudley Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

News

Saudi Aramco cuts dividend after fall in 1Q profit


12/05/25
News
12/05/25

Saudi Aramco cuts dividend after fall in 1Q profit

Dubai, 12 May (Argus) — State-controlled Saudi Aramco has announced a sharp cut to its quarterly dividend after reporting a 5pc year-on-year decline in profit for the first three months of 2025. The company's profit fell to $26.01bn in January-March from $27.3bn in the same period last year after lower oil prices squeezed revenues. Aramco said its bottom line was also hit by higher operating costs. The company said it sold its crude for an average $76.30/bl in January-March, down from $83/bl the first quarter of 2024. "Global trade dynamics affected energy markets in the first quarter of 2025, with economic uncertainty impacting oil prices," Aramco's chief executive Amin Nasser said. The company said its overall dividend for the quarter will be $20.61bn, down from $31bn in the corresponding period in 2024. The steep drop is due to the performance-linked element of the dividend being slashed to just $219mn for the quarter, from $10.7bn a year earlier. Aramco already announced in March that it expected its dividends for the full year to fall to $85.4bn from $124.3bn in 2024. Despite the current economic uncertainty, Aramco's capital expenditure (capex) rose to $12.5bn for January-March from $10.83bn in the same period last year, although this puts investment broadly in line with the lower end of the full-year 2025 capex guidance of $52bn-58bn that the company announced in March. The aggressive capex programme will help drive growth plans for the downstream and new energies sides of Aramco's business, as well as fund the firm's strategy to maintain its maximum sustainable crude capacity at 12mn b/d and expand its gas output by 60pc by 2030 compared with 2021 levels. By Nader Itayim Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Generic Hero Banner

Business intelligence reports

Get concise, trustworthy and unbiased analysis of the latest trends and developments in oil and energy markets. These reports are specially created for decision makers who don’t have time to track markets day-by-day, minute-by-minute.

Learn more