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Participants mostly support IMO GHG pricing mechanism

  • Market: Biofuels, Oil products
  • 11/04/25

International shipping organisations and market participants mostly support the global greenhouse gas (GHG) pricing mechanism approved today at the International Maritime Organization's (IMO) 83rd Marine Environment Protection Committee (MEPC) meeting, but some raised concerns.

The structure approved by the IMO establishes that ships must reduce their fuel intensity by a "base target" of 4pc in 2028 against 93.3 gCO2e/MJ, the latter representing the average GHG fuel intensity value of international shipping in 2008. Emissions above this target will be charged at $380/tCO2e.

The levels defined by the approved regulation are achievable, according to a market participant, who said the gradually increasing targets may allow the market to properly adapt to the transition.

The International Chamber of Shipping (ICS) secretary general Guy Platten said the sector is already investing billions of dollars in 'green' technology, so the agreement gives certainty that sustainable marine fuels producers need.

"The world's governments have now come forward with a comprehensive agreement which, although not perfect in every respect, we very much hope will be formally adopted later this year," he said.

The European Shipowners (ECSA) secretary general Sotiris Raptis agreed the draft "is not perfect", but he celebrated progress towards a net zero emissions target, saying "it is a good starting point for further work" and pointing out that it may ensure the necessary investment in production of clean fuels.

During a press briefing, IMO secretary general Arsenio Dominguez said ships operating in international waters will be obliged to comply with the regulations after adoption, despite the US' refusal to engage with the discussions. Adoption of the pricing mechanism will be discussed and voted on in October.

Offering a counterview, the Global Maritime Forum said the agreed measures may not be strong enough to reach IMO targets.

"The GHG intensity targets create uncertainty as to whether the strategy's emissions reduction checkpoints for 2030 and 2040 will be met," it said. "As currently designed, measures are unlikely to be sufficient to incentivise the rapid development of e-fuels such as e-ammonia or e-methanol, which will be needed in the long run due to their scalability and emission reduction potential."

It said that failure to invest in these fuels would put at risk the target of at least 5pc zero- and near-zero emission fuel use by 2030 and the industry's entire 2050 net-zero goal.

The World Shipping Council's vice president Bryan Wood-Thomas praised the agreement and said one benefit of it is the pricing system that is "more aggressive" if a vessel fails to meet the GHG intensity standard.

"But you also have a fee system that gives investors more confidence in actual revenue [from using cleaner fuels]," he said.

The Brazilian representative told Argus the fact that some countries thought the agreement was too ambitious while others indicated it was not ambitious enough show the group may have reached a balance that can be possible to comply.

About the Brazilian position, the representative said the country "was never against an agreement".

"We were only against some aspects of the agreement, and we think that the membership has heard our concerns, and that's why we ended up pretty happy with the results", he said. Brazil voted in favour of the agreement today.


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02/05/25

Shell’s 1Q profit falls but beats expectations

Shell’s 1Q profit falls but beats expectations

London, 2 May (Argus) — Shell's Integrated Gas business segment delivered a solid performance in the first quarter, helping the UK major exceed analysts' earnings estimates despite ongoing struggles in its downstream Chemicals and Products business. Shell reported a first-quarter profit of $4.8bn, down from $7.4bn a year earlier. Adjusted for inventory valuation effects and one-off items, profit was $5.6bn, surpassing analysts' expectations of $5.3bn. Integrated Gas was Shell's top-performing segment, with a profit of $2.8bn, slightly higher than the first quarter of 2024. Production was down by 6.6pc year-on-year at 927,000 b/d oil equivalent (boe/d), but up 2pc from the previous quarter. Less maintenance at the Pearl gas-to-liquids plant in Qatar had a positive impact on production, Shell said. But the company's LNG volumes were affected by unplanned maintenance and weather constraints in Australia, falling to 6.6mn t from 7.6mn t a year earlier. The Upstream segment posted a profit of $2.1bn, down by 8.5pc on a year earlier but double what it made in the fourth quarter of 2024. The segment was hit with a $509mn tax charge related to the UK's Energy Profits Levy in the first quarter, partially offset by gains from asset sales. Production for the segment was slightly down compared to a year earlier at 1.86mn boe/d, partly due to the divestment of Shell's SPDC business in Nigeria. Overall, Shell's first-quarter production was 2.84mn boe/d, down from 2.91mn boe/d a year earlier but up from 2.82mn boe/d in the previous quarter. Shell expects lower production in the current quarter, ranging from 2.45mn boe/d to 2.71mn boe/d due to maintenance across its Integrated Gas portfolio and the absence of volumes from the SPDC business. The Chemicals and Products segment reported a $77mn loss for the first quarter, compared to a $1.3bn profit a year earlier. Refinery runs were down by 4.8pc year-on-year, and chemicals sales volumes were marginally lower. Despite persistent low margins in the downstream, Shell noted that refining and chemicals margins improved compared to the fourth quarter. Shell expects capital spending for 2025 to be within a $20bn-$22bn range, in line with last year's spending. The company is maintaining its dividend at 35.8¢/share and its share buyback programme at $3.5bn a quarter. By Jon Mainwaring Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Japan’s Saffaire starts supplying SAF to Japan Airlines


02/05/25
News
02/05/25

Japan’s Saffaire starts supplying SAF to Japan Airlines

Tokyo, 2 May (Argus) — Japanese sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) joint venture Saffaire Sky Energy has started supplying its SAF to Japan Airlines (JAL). This is the company's first SAF delivery to an airline. Saffaire is a joint venture launched by Japanese engineering firm JGC, refiner Cosmo Oil and biodiesel producer Revo International. The delivery of SAF to a passenger flight marks a full-fledged launch of a supply chain that enables the continuous mass-production and supply of SAF in Japan, JGC and JAL announced on 1 May. The JAL plane was fuelled with Saffaire's SAF at Kansai International Airport in western Japan's Osaka, and departed to Shanghai, China, on 1 May. Saffaire will continue to supply SAF to JAL and start supplying SAF to other airlines as well, JGC told Argus . Saffaire supplied SAF to Japan Air Self-Defense Force in April. It announced plans to start delivery to domestic airlines JAL and All Nippon Airways (ANA), the US' Delta Air Lines , Finland's Finnair, Taiwan's Starlux Airlines and German logistics group DHL Express in the 2025 fiscal year. JGC also announced a plan on 24 April to start supplying Saffaire's SAF to Taiwan's Eva Air in the 2025 fiscal year. Saffaire operates Japan's first large-scale SAF plant in Cosmo's Sakai refinery in Osaka, with a production capacity of around 30,000 kilolitres/yr. Saffaire uses used cooking oil (UCO) as feedstock for SAF. By Kohei Yamamoto Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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US bill would extend expired biofuel credits


01/05/25
News
01/05/25

US bill would extend expired biofuel credits

New York, 1 May (Argus) — Legislation soon to be introduced in the US House would extend expired biofuel incentives through 2026, potentially providing a reprieve to refiners that have curbed production this year because of policy uncertainty. The bill, which will be sponsored by US representative Mike Carey (R-Ohio) and some other Republicans on the powerful House Ways and Means Committee, according to a person familiar, could be introduced as soon as today. It would prolong both the long-running $1/USG for blenders of biomass-based diesel and a separate incentive that offers up to $1.01/USG for producers of cellulosic ethanol. The credits expired at the end of last year but under the proposal would be extended through both 2025 and 2026. The incentives would run alongside the Inflation Reduction Act's new "45Z" credit for clean fuel producers, which offers a sliding scale of benefits based on carbon intensity, though the bill would prevent double claiming of credits, according to bill text shared with Argus . The 45Z credit is less generous across the board to road fuels — offering $1/USG only for carbon-neutral fuels and much less for crop-based diesels — and is still in need of final rules after President Joe Biden's administration issued only preliminary guidance around qualifying. The proposal then would effectively offer a more generous alternative through 2026 for biodiesel, renewable diesel, and cellulosic ethanol but not for other fuels that can claim the technology-neutral 45Z incentive. That could upend the economics of renewable fuel production. Vegetable oil-based diesels for instance could claim the blenders credit and earn more than aviation fuels that draw from the same feedstocks. According to Argus Consulting estimates, aviation fuels derived from wastes like distillers corn oil and domestic used cooking should still earn more than $1/USG this year, conversely, since 45Z is more generous to aviation fuels. Extending the biodiesel blenders credit would also allow foreign fuel imports to again claim federal subsidies, a boost for Finnish refiner Neste and the ailing Canadian biofuel startup Braya Renewable Fuels but a controversial provision for US refiners and feedstock suppliers. The 45Z incentive can only be claimed by US producers. The blenders incentive is also popular among fuel marketer groups, which have warned that shifting subsidies to producers could up fuel costs. The proposal adds to a contentious debate taking place across the biofuel value chain about what the future of clean fuel incentives should look like. Some industry groups see a wholesale reversion to preexisting biofuel credits — or even a temporary period where various partly overlapping incentives coexist — as a tough sell to cost-concerned lawmakers and have instead pushed for revamping 45Z. A proposal last month backed by some farm groups would keep the 45Z incentive but ban foreign feedstocks and adjust carbon intensity modeling to benefit crops. Republicans could keep, modify, extend, or repeal the 45Z incentive as part of negotiations around a larger tax bill this year. But the caucus is still negotiating how much to reduce the federal budget deficit and what to do with Inflation Reduction Act incentives that have spurred clean energy projects in conservative districts. Uncertainty about the future of biofuel policy and sharply lower margins to start 2025 have led to a recently pronounced drop in biodiesel and renewable diesel production . President Donald Trump's administration is working on new biofuel blend mandates, which could be proposed in the coming weeks, but has said little about its plans for biofuel tax policy. By Cole Martin Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Nigeria’s Warri refinery restart threatened by strike


01/05/25
News
01/05/25

Nigeria’s Warri refinery restart threatened by strike

Lagos, 1 May (Argus) — Plans to restart a section of Nigeria's 125,000 b/d Warri refinery are at risk due to an indefinite strike planned by plant support staff starting on 5 May. The strike is in protest against casualisation, low pay and lack of benefits. A source at the refinery told Argus last week that state-owned NNPC intends to restart the crude and vacuum distillation units (CDU and VDU) and a gas plant in the first week of May. But the support staff have timed their strike to disrupt these plans. Support staff representative Dafe Ighomitedo said the striking workers make up two-thirds of Warri's staff and have been protesting their employment terms since 2015. The refinery has been undergoing a $492mn quick-fix repair contract with South Korean engineering firm Daewoo since June 2022 to restore 60pc of its nameplate capacity. A previous strike called in April 2022 would have delayed the start of the quick-fix programme, but it was called off following appeals from community leaders and a promise from refinery management to address the workers' demands if they supported the programme, Ighomitedo said. Workers were promised an improved salary structure upon the refinery's restart but that promise has not been fulfilled, he added. NNPC did not respond to Argus' requests for comment. NNPC restarted Warri in December last year and crude runs had ramped up to about 78,000 b/d before the refinery was shut again in January "to carry out necessary intervention works on select equipment, including field instruments that were impacting sustainable and steady operations", the company said. NNPC cancelled crude oil allocations to Warri in February and March, reoffering the volumes for export, but said last month that all units at the refinery would be online within a year. By Adebiyi Olusolape Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Construction firms see tepid private demand in 2025


30/04/25
News
30/04/25

Construction firms see tepid private demand in 2025

Houston, 30 April (Argus) — Building materials suppliers Martin Marietta and Vulcan Materials anticipate market uncertainty and elevated interest rates to hamper private construction demand this year. Some large commercial projects have been paused because of macroeconomic volatility stemming from US trade policies, according to remarks made by Vulcan's chief executive Tom Hill on an earnings call today. The current interest rate environment is also expected to stifle residential construction activity this year, according to Hill. The CME FedWatch tool showed a 95.5pc probability that the US Federal Reserve would hold its target interest rate steady at its next meeting on 7 May. Martin Marietta's chief executive Howard Nye echoed the same uncertainty around macroeconomic conditions and affordability constraints limiting residential construction growth. Hill and Nye also shared similar remarks on tariffs, and both noted the potential for increased costs but minimal impact on earnings. Both companies also pointed to data centers as a bright spot on the private demand side with warehouse construction stabilizing following years of declines. Sentiment around public demand was more positive with both Martin Marietta and Vulcan Materials expecting continued growth in public construction activities at the federal and state level. Hill mentioned more than half of Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act (IIJA) highway funds are still yet to be spent. Nye said IIJA contributions will peak next year and expected the potential reauthorization of federal surface transportation programs to focus on roads, bridges and ports. Nye also said the push for a new $200/yr fee on electric vehicles was a "really good start" for tackling issues surrounding the Highway Trust Fund. Asphalt revenue jumps Martin Marietta's asphalt and paving revenue grew by 37pc to $80mn in the first quarter of 2025 compared to the same quarter last year with shipments up 26pc over the same period. The boost was supported by higher volumes in California, according to the company's earnings report. Some market participants in California noted demand for liquid asphalt was slightly above forecasts in January with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration reporting below-average precipitation levels for the month. Martin Marietta's aggregates shipments also increased by roughly 7pc in the first quarter. Vulcan's asphalt revenue rose by about 12pc to roughly $209mn in the first quarter of 2025 compared with the same quarter last year. Shipments were also up by 4pc over the same period. Hill noted savings on liquid asphalt reached around $3mn. Wholesale prices on the Gulf coast averaged about $397/st over the first quarter, 2pc below values from the same time in 2024. Aggregates shipments slipped by nearly 1pc in the first quarter of 2025 compared to the same period last year. Vulcan noted frigid temperatures hampered volumes in the quarter as acquisitions made last year helped offset some negative effects from adverse weather. Overall, Martin Marietta reported a gross profit of $335mn on revenue of $1.35bn in the first quarter. This is compared with a profit of $272mn on revenue of $1.25bn in the same quarter last year. Vulcan reported a gross profit of $365mn in the first quarter on revenue of about $1.64bn. This is up from a gross profit of $305mn in the first quarter of 2024 on revenue of roughly $1.55bn. By Cobin Eggers Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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