The Colombian government is preparing to ration electricity supply as early as next week amid a severe drought, a natural gas shortage, and a string of breakdowns in thermal power stations.
Government officials and industry specialists say a public campaign to voluntarily reduce consumption by at least 5pc has failed, prompting plans to temporarily restrict supply starting after Easter.
The government is already maximizing thermal dispatch, driving up diesel imports, and has boosted electricity imports from neighboring Ecuador.
The strained electricity system got a small reprieve overnight when state-owned generator Gecelca started restoring the 151MW TermoGuajira 2 coal-fired unit that had been out of service for 10 days on damage to pipes leading to the boiler.
In a trend affecting all thermal power installations, TermoGuajira has not paused for maintenance in 9,000 hours or the equivalent 375 days to compensate for sparse hydroelectric availabilities.
Gecelca says 149MW TermoGuajira 1 is operating normally. The two-unit complex, located in the northern province of Guajira, normally consumes 500,000 tonnes of domestic steam coal.
The plant damage follows a month-long outage at the recently inaugurated TermoTasajero 2 coal-fired unit. The 160MW plant came back on line on 15 March, after six out of 18 transformers were damaged during maintenance. TermoTasajero 2 provides 4GWh/d, equivalent to 3pc of national demand.
Colombia has witnessed operational problems at other thermal plants such as 610MW TermoFlores, which uses diesel in the absence of gas supply.
Thermal generation rose by more than 65pc to 2.67TWh in January compared with the same month last year, according to system operator XM.
Aside from the drought triggered by the El Niño weather phenomenon, the country lost around 2,000MW of hydroelectric supply from three plants because of a 15 February fire. Hydropower — which usually accounts for about 70pc of Colombian generation —represented just 48.3pc of supply in January, down from 64.4pc a year earlier. Thermal units made up shortfall, generating 47.8pc of total power in January compared with 30.1pc in the same month last year.
Bogotá-based think tank ANIF says president Juan Manuel Santos has done too little too late to tackle the problem, postponing recommended rationing as he works to seal a politically sensitive peace deal with anti-government rebels.
The group says programmed rationing, which could last two to three months depending on rainfall and technical factors, could shave 0.1-0.2pc off of GDP growth this year.
The Colombian economy has already taken a beating from the collapse in oil and coal prices over the past two years.
The impact of the rationing will be devastating for the industrial sector, an economist with ANIF tells Argus.
Colombia´s industrial sector accounts for approximately 35pc of electricity demand.
The crisis is expected to ease later this year, as El Niño recedes and a planned regasification terminal on the Caribbean coast starts LNG imports.
