Europe will account for over a quarter of the projected fall in global gas consumption this year from 2019, the Paris-based International Energy Agency (IEA) said.
The IEA expects global gas demand to fall by 150bn m³ in 2020 from a year earlier because of the repercussions of the Covid-19 pandemic. This 4pc decline would be the largest since the gas market developed at scale in the second half of last century, and double the 2pc fall in 2009 over the previous financial crisis, the IEA said.
The demand destruction is to be led by Europe, with an estimated 40bn m³ fall from 2019. Much of the loss is concentrated in the residential and commercial sectors.
Europe's gas-fired generation has been hit hard as well, squeezed between lower electricity demand and growing renewable output, the IEA said.
European gas demand has faced a "perfect storm" since the start of 2020, because of the conjunction of one of the warmest winters on record, strong wind generation and Covid-19 induced nationwide lockdowns, the IEA said. It fell by 7pc in January-May from a year earlier.
Mild weather pared space-heating requirements in the first quarter, curbing demand in the residential and commercial sectors.
And while European prompt prices slid to levels that would encourage substantial coal-to-gas fuel-switching, this was more than offset by weaker overall thermal generation because of strong renewable output.
Gas-fired generation fell by 10TWh year on year in January-March, curbing gas demand by around 2.5bn m³.
Turkish power-sector gas burn followed a different pattern to the rest of Europe, climbing in January-February amid weaker lignite-fired output and hydroelectric generation before plummeting in March as hydroelectric output recovered.
And consumption was hit further by the implementation of lockdowns across most of Europe. Demand was down by 11pc, or 10bn m³, on 11 March-31 May from a year earlier.
This has been concentrated in the industrial and power generation sectors, with distribution network consumption less affected, the IEA said.
Europe's electricity consumption slowed substantially, paring gas-fired output, particularly in the UK and Italy. Gas-fired generation fell by 20pc on 11 March-31 May from a year earlier, equivalent to an estimated 5bn m³ of lost gas use, the IEA said.
Industrial gas demand in the countries with the strictest measures to contain Covid-19 — Belgium, France, Italy, Spain and the UK — was down by 15pc or 1bn m³ in March-May, the IEA said.
Demand to recover in 2021
Europe will recover most of its consumption losses in 2021 as demand gradually returns from the industrial and power generation sectors, the IEA said.
Alongside a gradual recovery as economic activity picks up, marginal gains are anticipated because of increased coal-to-gas fuel-switching. And residential heating demand is expected to be in line with long-term averages following an exceptionally mild 2019-20 heating season.
But this is based on the assumption that the global economy steadily grows to pre-Covid-19 levels, the IEA cautioned. The outlook would be "substantially different" if a second wave of viral infection triggers further confinement measures this winter, it said.
The IEA also foresees a recovery in gas demand globally next year. But it warns that demand is not expected to rebound in 2021 in the same way as in 2010, when it jumped by 8pc after the 2009 financial crisis. Incremental demand will not return to "business as usual", with long-lasting effects expected as a result of the crisis.
Europe's gas demand forecast is stable in the years up to 2025. The steady phase out of over 50GW of nuclear, coal and lignite-fired capacity allows room for higher gas-fired generation. But the rapid expansion of renewable generation limits the scope for further growth.
And industrial consumption recovers to its pre-Covid-19 crisis levels, but with limited potential for further increases.
