Higher nickel prices raise superalloy costs in July

Market: Metals
04/08/20

The cost of nickel-based superalloys for the aerospace industry climbed last month on rising nickel prices, but reduced superalloy demand could limit end-user exposure to the price increase.

Argus estimates that the total intrinsic value of Inconel 718 alloy, with 52pc nickel, 19pc chromium, 5pc niobium and 3pc molybdenum, rose to $5.8355/lb on 30 July, up from $5.5996/lb at the start of the month. This increase was underpinned by the value of nickel in this alloy moving up to $6.376/lb by the end of July from $5.927/lb on 1 July, with prices for molybdenum, chromium and niobium all remaining broadly flat over the period.

Overall, the official three-month LME nickel contract surged to a six-month high of $13,806/t on 31 July, its highest since $13,840/t on 21 January, as prices realigned more closely with fundamentals and cost curves, following a sharp knock in March as Covid-19 ripped across industry globally. The nickel market is also being bolstered by expectations of growing longer-term demand from battery manufacturers.

This rise in costs for nickel-based superalloys may discourage buyers in the aerospace and oil and gas industries, which have been hit hard by the pandemic. But the impact may be diminished as low consumption rates encourage consumers to rely on their existing inventories rather than buy top ups in the spot market.

Nickel-based alloys used in the aerospace industry are corrosion resistant and high creep-rupture strength alloy that can withstand temperatures as high as 700°C. In the battery sector, nickel is a key component in lithium-ion, nickel-cobalt-aluminium (NCA) and nickel-cobalt-manganese (NCM) batteries, offering greater energy density and increased storage capacity.

Cr drops to 14-year low, Co edges up

Chromium prices in Europe and the US plummeted last month to their lowest since mid-2006, as the aerospace sector's malaise continued to permeate the high-temperature materials space.

Argus-assessed prices for min 99pc aluminothermic chromium reached $5,800-6,000/t dp Rotterdam on 7 July, their lowest since $5,900-6,100/t on 31 May 2006. By mid-2020, the market had erased March's gains in response to tighter feedstock availability and higher input costs. Similarly, prices for aluminothermic chrome sank to a 14-year low of $2.95-3.05/lb on 31 July.

By contrast, and despite weak superalloy demand, the US cobalt market registered a slight recovery in July, with rising costs for hydroxide and delays to shipments from South Africa and the Democratic Republic of the Congo supporting prices. Fob US prices for min 99.8pc cobalt warehouse fell to $13.28-14.10/lb on 14 July, but then rose for the first time in 21 weeks to reach $13.50-14.00/lb on 21 July. The market extended these gains to reach $13.70-14.20/lb on 28 July.

In Europe, higher hydroxide prices and tighter supply boosted prices for the chemical grade cobalt but the alloy grade remained unchanged.

European prices for 99.8pc min chemical grade cobalt rose to $14.25-14.70/lb on 30 July, swinging to a premium to the alloy grade for the first time since June 2019. Alloy grade cobalt on 30 July was assessed at $14.10-14.60/lb on limited demand.

Ti turnings supply tightens in Europe

Prices for titanium turnings in Europe strengthened slightly in late July on the back of a supply shortfall, as reduced aerospace manufacturing dented their production as shavings during the manufacturing processes.

Supply tightness was sufficient to more than offset a drop in consumption, with some European ferro-titanium producers moving to cut output to 50-60pc in anticipation of this turnings shortfall in the third quarter.

Argus-assessed European prices for unprocessed 6Al4V titanium turnings at 72-80¢/lb in late June — their lowest in more than three years — but values then rebounded to 74-81¢/lb on 21 July. Consumers of turnings typically do not build up inventories due to the material being a fire hazard.

Meanwhile, US dealers and recyclers — which have been struggling to sell aerospace-grade titanium scrap — began to bundle excess supply along with ferrous-grade scrap, targeting opportunities to sell into Europe.

US titanium demand was little changed in July from June, with mill capacity having been significantly scaled back. Scrap availability in the US market is higher because defence production is ring-fenced by the government, and does not slow even amid challenging economic conditions.

Dealer buying prices for ferro-titanium turnings (85pc Ti non-tin bearing) hovered near a 3.5-year low of 20-25¢/lb on 30 July. They were last assessed in the same price range on 29 December 2016.

By Anuradha Ramanathan

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19/12/24

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