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Risks rising for possible recession in Mexico: Analysts
Risks rising for possible recession in Mexico: Analysts
Mexico City, 17 April (Argus) — The Mexican finance executive association (IMEF) lowered its 2025 GDP growth forecast for a second consecutive month in its April survey, citing a rising risk of recession on US-Mexico trade tensions. In its April survey, growth expectations for 2025 fell to 0.2pc, down from 0.6pc in March and 1pc in February. Nine of the 43 respondents projected negative growth — up from four in March, citing rising exposure to US tariffs that now affect "roughly half" of Mexico's exports. The group warned that the risk of recession will continue to rise until tariff negotiations are resolved, with the possibility of a US recession compounding the problem. As such, IMEF expects a contraction in the first quarter with high odds of continued negative growth in the second quarter — meeting one common definition of recession as two straight quarters of contraction. Mexico's economy decelerated in the fourth quarter of 2024 to an annualized rate of 0.5pc from 1.7pc the previous quarter, the slowest expansion since the first quarter of 2021, according to statistics agency data. Mexico's statistics agency Inegi will release its first estimate for first quarter GDP growth on April 30. "A recession is now very likely," said IMEF's director of economic studies Victor Herrera. "Some sectors, like construction, are already struggling — and it's just a matter of time before it spreads." The severity of the downturn will depend on how quickly trade tensions ease and whether the US-Mexico-Canada (USMCA) free trade agreement is successfully revised, Herrera added. But the outlook remains uncertain, with mixed signals this week — including a possible pause on auto tariffs and fresh warnings of new tariffs on key food exports like tomatoes. IMEF also trimmed its 2026 GDP forecast to 1.5pc from 1.6pc, citing persistent tariff uncertainty. Its 2025 formal job creation estimate dropped to 220,000 from 280,000 in March. The group slightly lowered its 2025 inflation forecast to 3.8pc from 3.9pc, noting current consumer price index should allow the central bank to continue the current rate cut cycle to lower its target interest rate to 8pc by year-end from 9pc. IMEF expects the peso to end the year at Ps20.90/$1, slightly stronger than the Ps21/$1 forecast in March. By James Young Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Cyclones disrupt BHP iron ore sales in January-March
Cyclones disrupt BHP iron ore sales in January-March
Sydney, 17 April (Argus) — Australian mineral producer BHP's iron ore sales fell by 3.9pc on the year in January-March, despite total production remaining largely flat, because of months of severe weather challenges in Australia. BHP iron ore output for the 2025 financial year will sit in the lower end of its 255mn-265.5mn t guidance , it said in February. BHP had expected to operate in the upper end of its guidance range before multiple cyclones hit Western Australia (WA) in January-February. The decline in BHP's production guidance comes entirely from its WA operations. The company increased its Brazilian Samarco iron ore production guidance closer to the upper end of its 5mn-5.5mn t range. BHP produced 1.6mn t of ore at Samarco in January-March, up by 39pc on the year. The company — which runs Samarco as a joint venture with Brazilian metal firm Vale — re-opened a concentration plant at the mine in December 2024. Total production at Samarco will reach 16mn t/yr by the end of the 2025 financial year, the company said on 17 April. But production declines at the company's WA mines were limited in January-March, decreasing by just 0.3pc on the year. This was partly because of the ramp up of production at BHP's South Flank mine in July-September 2024 . BHP's Samarco mine also buoyed its total iron ore sales in January-March. Exports from the site rose by 15pc on the year, partially offsetting a 4.3pc decline in shipments from the company's larger WA operations. Other producers also faced weather disruptions over January-March. Australian producer Mineral Resources revised down its 2025 iron ore production guidance by up to 2.4mn t after Cyclone Sean. Rio Tinto also lost 13mn t of shipments and will likely only reach the lower end of its production guidance range of 323mn-338mn t in 2025. By Avinash Govind BHP iron ore quarterly results Jan-Mar '25 Oct-Dec '24 Jan-March '24 q-o-q % ± y-o-y % ± Proudction (mn t) Western Australia 60.1 64.8 60.3 -7.1 -0.3 Samarco 1.6 1.5 1.2 11.1 39.3 Total 61.8 66.2 61.5 -6.7 0.5 Sales (mn t) Western Australia 59.2 64.3 61.9 -7.9 -4.3 Samarco 1.4 1.5 1.3 -4.2 14.9 Total 60.7 65.8 63.1 -7.9 -3.9 Source: BHP Argus' iron ore fines 62pc Fe price ($/t) Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
HEVs drive Brazil's 1Q EV sales up as BEVs fall
HEVs drive Brazil's 1Q EV sales up as BEVs fall
Sao Paulo, 16 April (Argus) — Total Brazilian electric vehicle (EVs) sales were up in the first quarter, driven by increasing demand for hybrid vehicles (HEVs) as sales of battery electric vehicles (BEVs) tumbled. Overall EV sales in Brazil grew by almost 40pc in the first three months of the year to 50,074 units, led by HEVs — including plug-ins (PHEVs), non-plug-ins, and mild hybrids (MHEVs) — which saw a 70.5pc surge compared to the same period in 2024, according to Fenabrave, a private body that represents car dealerships in Brazil. EVs made up 12.5pc of the total Brazilian car market, a three percentage point increase year-on-year. PHEVs were the most popular choice for consumers seeking an EV, with 19,530 units sold on the first quarter, up 83.6pc from last year, according to data from the Brazilian electric vehicles' association (ABVE). BEVs accounted for 12,993 units sold, while MHEVs — vehicles with regular engines aided by small batteries that increase fuel efficiency but do not power the wheels — accounted for 10,724 units sold. A total of 7,402 non-plug-in HEVs were sold in the quarter. Although HEV sales rose, BEVs tumbled 8.3pc due to general consumer skepticism about the Brazilian charging infrastructure and increasing popularity of PHEVs because of its above-average fuel efficiency and the possibility of driving on regular fuels, such as gasoline and ethanol. BYD increases market dominance BYD, a Chinese carmaker, further increased its EV market share in Brazil in the first quarter on aggressive discounts for its HEVs. The Chinese brand, which only sells plug-ins and BEVs, offered discounts of over R20,000 ($3,400) per car plus other benefits in excess of R10,000 ($1,700) for their PHEVs. BYD sold around 11,710 PHEV units, more than double from the same period in 2024, and accounted for 31.4pc of the total HEV market in the first quarter, according to Fenabrave. Fiat, which debuted in the EV segment in November and only markets MHEVs, sold 7,400 units, taking second place with a 19.8pc market share in January-March. Great Wall Motors (GWM), another Chinese automaker, closed out the top three with 5,880 units in the period, holding 15.8pc market share. PHEVs are becoming increasingly popular in Brazil even in regions with a solid charging infrastructure, according to ABVE. Major cities such as Sao Paulo and Brasilia — the country's capital — were among the top plug-in buyers due to the possibility of daily driving in electric mode and travelling long ranges on hybrid. BYD's plug-ins can drive for 745 miles on a single tank of gas, on a fully charged battery and loaded tank. All types of EVs in Brazil are eligible for a yearly tax exemption of up to 4pc of the car's value in most states. Although BEV sales were down, BYD still managed to increase its dominant place in the market. The Chinese automaker sold 9,680 EVs in the first three months of the year, more than 75pc of the nearly 12,880 units sold in the period. According to the company, 7 out of 10 BEVs sold in Brazil are from BYD. Volvo followed with almost 1,200 sold EVs and GWM had the third-highest sales figures at just 814. Overall, BYD owns 42.7pc of the total Brazilian EV market, followed by Fiat at 14.8pc and GWM, with a 13.4pc market share. The two Chinese brands both plan to start manufacturing cars in Brazil by year's end. BYD also acquired mining rights for two separate lithium sites in the country in an effort to streamline its whole operation in the country, as it figures as its largest market outside of China. By Pedro Consoli Brazil EV sales units Brand 1Q 2025 1Q 2024 ±% Market share (%) Total EVs (BEVs, HEVs) BYD 21,384 14,920 43.3 42.7 Fiat 7,400 n/a n/a 14.8 GWM 6,693 5,735 16.7 13.4 Toyota 4,277 5,049 -16.2 8.5 Volvo 2,097 1,606 30.5 4.2 Mercedes Benz 1,765 1,166 51.3 3.5 Honda 1,207 567 112.8 2.4 Caoa Chery 1,203 2,105 -42.8 2.4 BMW 911 825 10.4 1.8 Porsche 687 41 1,575.6 1.4 Total (hybrid vehicles, EVs) 50,074 35,872 39.6 100 Electric vehicles (BEVs) BYD 9,678 10,052 -4 75.1 Volvo 1,196 596 101 9.2 GWM 814 1,892 -57 6.3 BMW 219 238 -8 1.7 Renault 176 187 -6 1.3 Porsche 155 41 278.0 1.2 Zeekr 141 n/a n/a 1.0 Mini 124 34 265 1.0 JAC 107 457 77 0.8 Mercedes Benz 38 39 -3 0.3 Total (EVs) 12,877 14,053 -8 100 Hybrid vehicles (HEVs, PHEVs, MHEVs) BYD 11,706 4,868 140.4 31.4 Fiat 7,400 n/a n/a 19.9 GWM 5,879 3,843 52.9 15.8 Toyota 4,277 5,049 -15.2 11.5 Mercedes Benz 1,727 1,127 53.2 4.6 Honda 1,207 567 112.8 3.2 Caoa Chery 1,203 2,105 -42.8 3.2 Volvo 901 1,010 -10.7 2.4 BMW 692 587 17.8 1.9 Jaguar Land Rover 627 816 -23.1 1.7 Total (hybrid vehicles) 37,197 21,819 70.5 100 Does not include all brands sold Source: Fenabrave 1Q Brazil electrified vehicles sales units Brazil EV year-on-year comparison per type units Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Vale’s Ni output rises 11pc after furnace rebuild
Vale’s Ni output rises 11pc after furnace rebuild
Sao Paulo, 16 April (Argus) — Brazil-based mining group Vale's nickel production rose in the first quarter by 11pc from the same period last year, when the company's Onça Puma mine's furnace was being rebuilt. Total nickel production rose to 43,900 metric tonnes (t) in the first quarter, up from 39,500t a year earlier, Vale said Tuesday. Brazilian operations produced 5,400t of finished nickel in the quarter, compared to none a year earlier. Canadian nickel production rose by 18pc to 20,000t, as Voisey's Bay's output climbed on the year by 47pc to 6,500t and Thompson mines output surged by 51pc to 3,600t. Higher production was intended to build inventories ahead of scheduled maintenance at its Canadian refineries during the upcoming quarters, Vale said. Vale plans as much as five weeks of maintenance at its Creighton mine in the third quarter, with shorter outages scheduled for Thompson and Long Harbour stretching into the fourth quarter. Nickel sales volumes stood 5pc below production at 38,900t but marked an 18pc increase from a year earlier. Vale's nickel prices averaged at $16,100/t in the quarter, down by 4.4pc year-on-year, reflecting lower London Metal exchange (LME) prices. Isabel Filgueiras Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
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