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EPA finalizes E15 rule with limited RIN changes: Update

  • Market: Biofuels, Oil products
  • 31/05/19

Adds industry reaction.

Refiners, importers and other parties obligated to comply with federal renewable fuel blending rules face new disclosure requirements but will not need to meet a more aggressive pace of compliance or credit selling under a final rule the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) published today.

The rule extends waivers allowing the sale of 15pc ethanol blends of gasoline through the summer months and imposes additional reporting requirements for refiners and fuel importers under the Renewable Fuel Standard. EPA "put on hold" rule changes biofuel producers and blenders complained gave too many advantages to buyers, but have not abandoned the concepts, EPA assistant administrator for air and radiation Bill Wehrum said today.

EPA's completion of the rule on the eve of the official summer driving season may give few retailers enough time to offer higher-ethanol fuel in previously restricted months. Trump promised farmers last fall that his administration would allow the year-round sale of 15pc ethanol blends of gasoline, called E15, in time for the peak driving season. The submission will likely lead to lawsuits challenging the extended higher-ethanol sales.

"We know that there are folks who disagree with us, and some have already said they are going to challenge what we have done today, and that is fine," Wehrum said. "We believe that we have very good defenses to the claim and that we are going to prevail at the end."

The Renewable Fuel Standard requires refiners, importers and other companies to each year ensure minimum volumes of renewables blend into the gasoline and diesel they add to the US transportation fuel supply. Obligated companies prove compliance with the mandates by acquiring credits called renewable identification numbers (RINs) representing each ethanol-equivalent gallon of blended fuel.

The rule finalized today will require obligated parties to report the names of its RIN-holding corporate and contractual affiliates and each per-gallon RIN price. EPA also said it would seek a third-party market monitoring system to hunt for signs of manipulation.

But other requirements — including that retailers, blenders or other non-obligated RIN sellers dispose of all of their credits each quarter, that mandated parties show they satisfied at least 80pc of their quarterly obligations, and limiting who could purchase RINs — were left "in a parking lot" while the agency determined if they were necessary, Wehrum said.

The agency still supported the concepts, he said.

"Once we get better insight into the market, we will have those proposals out there, still available to take final action on, if we wanted to," Wehrum said. "No one of them would solve the problem completely, but each of the three things we proposed would be effective in beginning to address the problem of manipulation if we find it to exist."

EPA conceded early in the process it had no evidence of manipulation in the markets. Refiners, especially merchant refiners reliant on RINs generated by others to satisfy their mandates, have long insisted the market was vulnerable.

Blenders, including fuel retailers and integrated refiners, objected to market changes that upend the buying and selling flexibility of the RIN market. EPA was proposing a system that encouraged low demand and a high supply of RINs, destroying the value of participating in the program, retailer and RIN seller Murphy USA said in a response.

"EPA should focus on improving data collection and provision of that information to all market participants to enhance the efficiency and liquidity of the RIN market," the company said.

It was unlikely refiners would agree EPA achieved the "win-win" rule that Trump had proposed. Merchant refiners including Valero and Delta Air Lines subsidiary Monroe Energy had told EPA the proposals did not go far enough. Monroe proposed adopting firm position limits, as well as an even shorter, 30-day window for non-obligated parties to sell credits. The refiner also revived requested in a mid-May meeting that EPA cap or collar RIN prices, extend more waivers for ethanol RINs and revived a proposal to allow exported biofuel not consumed in the US to generate credits.

Wehrum said the approach published today was more prudent.

"We are not doctors, but we are applying the theory of first, do no harm," Wehrum said.

Biofuel producers and blenders praised the final rule. It was not immediately clear how many retailers would take advantage of eased restrictions on summer E15 sales. The change does not extend to retailers who invested in dispensers that blend E15 on site — that could come in a separate rule, Wehrum said.

Producer trade groups expect the new rule means a slow climb toward an additional 23,000 b/d of ethanol blended into fuel by 2021; the US averaged 913,000 b/d of blending last year. Soybean and corn producers have said the fuel mandates alone cannot make up for the loss of the Chinese market, and face a difficult year following a planting season mired in disastrous flooding. But it marked the delivery of a pledge to farmers already weary of the administration's actions on trade.

"This is a promise made and a promise kept by President Trump," US Senator Chuck Grassley (R-Iowa) said. "It has been a goal of ethanol producers and midwest farmers for years."

Refiners, meanwhile, reiterated their pledge to challenge the rulemaking. Both the American Fuel and Petrochemical Manufacturers (AFPM) and American Petroleum Institute said separately that they would meet the new rule in court.

"EPA has left us no choice but to pursue legal action to get this unlawful rule overturned," AFPM chief executive Chet Thompson said.

And farmers remain wary of the administration's commitment to their cause. The final rule does not address record levels of waivers issued for small refineries that have effectively slashed mandate requirements since Trump took office.

"We urge the president to build upon the momentum of today's announcement by reining in EPA's abuse of the small refinery exemption program," ethanol trade group Renewable Fuels Association said.


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01/04/25

US oil, farm groups push EPA for steep biofuel mandate

US oil, farm groups push EPA for steep biofuel mandate

New York, 1 April (Argus) — The American Petroleum Institute and biofuel-supporting groups told Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) officials at a meeting today that the agency should sharply raise advanced biofuel blend mandates for 2026. The coalition told EPA that it supported a biomass-based diesel mandate next year of 5.25bn USG, up from 3.35bn USG this year, and a broader advanced biofuel mandate, including the cellulosic category, at 10bn Renewable Identification Number (RIN) credits, up from 7.33bn RINs this year, according to three different groups that attended the meeting. Both mandates would be record highs for the Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) program. Soybean oil futures and RIN credit prices have risen sharply over the past week on optimism that oil and biofuel interests were working to coordinate volume mandate requests for consideration by President Donald Trump's administration. The coalition is also pushing the agency to set a total conventional volume requirement at 25bn RINs, which would keep an implied mandate for corn ethanol flat at 15bn USG. Ethanol groups had previously eyed a mandate even higher, but limits on the amount of ethanol that can be blended into gasoline make much more-stringent requirements a tough sell to oil refiners. The coalition provided no specific request for the cellulosic biofuel subcategory, where most credit generation comes from biogas. Credits in that category are more expensive, but price concerns have been less potent recently given an EPA proposal to lower previously set cellulosic obligations, signaling that future volume requirements can be cut, too. EPA is aiming to finalize new RFS volume mandates by the end of the year if not earlier, people familiar with the administration's thinking have said. EPA officials signaled at the meeting they were working urgently on the rulemaking. "The agency is intent on getting the RFS program back on the statutory timeline for issuing renewable volume obligation rules," EPA said, declining to comment further on its plans for the rule. The RFS program requires oil refiners and importers to blend biofuels into the conventional fuel supply or buy credits from those who do. Under the program's unique nesting structure, credits from blending lower-carbon biofuels can be used to meet obligations for other program categories. One gallon of corn ethanol generates 1 RIN, but more energy-dense fuels earn more RIN credits per gallon. Some disagreements persist While groups at the meeting were aligned around high-level mandates, how administration officials and courts treat small refinery requests for exemptions from RFS requirements could undercut those targets. Groups present were broadly aligned on asking EPA not to grant widespread exemptions, though there is still disagreement in the industry about how best to account for exempted volumes when deciding requirements for other refiners. Groups present at the meeting today included the American Petroleum Institute and representatives of biofuel producers and crop feedstock suppliers. Some groups that previously engaged with the coalition's efforts to project unity to the Trump administration were not present. And some groups more historically skeptical of the RFS and more supportive of small refinery exemptions — including the American Fuel and Petrochemical Manufacturers — have not been closely involved. Fuel marketer groups notably did not attend the meeting after a representative sparred with others in the coalition at an American Petroleum Institute meeting last month. Some retail groups, including the National Association of Convenience Stores and the National Association of Truck Stop Operators, instead sent a letter to EPA today arguing that the groups pushing steep volumes are discounting potential headwinds to the sector from new tax credit policy. Some of the groups advocating for higher biofuel volumes have pointed to high production capacity and feedstock availability, but have preferred to ignore thornier issues like tax credits, lobbyists say. "An overly aggressive increase in advanced biofuel blending mandates under the RFS will be punitive for American consumers" without extending a long-running $1/USG tax credit for biomass-based diesel blenders, the retailers' letter said. That incentive expired last year and was replaced by the Inflation Reduction Act's "45Z" credit, which offers subsidies to producers instead of blenders and throttles benefits based on carbon intensity. Generally lower credit values for biomass-based diesel — coupled with the US government's delays setting final regulations on qualifying for the credit — have spurred a sharp drop in biofuel production to start the year. Without a blenders credit, the RFS volume mandates pushed by some groups could increase retail diesel prices by 30¢/USG, the fuel marketers estimate, a potential political headache for a president that ran on curbing consumer costs. Other biofuel groups say that extending the credit would be an uphill battle this year, with some lawmakers and lobbyists instead focused on legislatively tweaking the 45Z incentive's rules to benefit crop feedstocks instead of reverting wholesale to the prior tax policy. By Cole Martin Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Mexico GDP outlook falls again in March survey


01/04/25
News
01/04/25

Mexico GDP outlook falls again in March survey

Mexico City, 1 April (Argus) — Private-sector analysts lowered Mexico's 2025 GDP growth forecast to 0.5pc in the central bank's March survey, down by more than a third from the prior forecast, driven by increased concerns over US trade policy and weakening domestic investment. The latest outlook is down from 0.8pc estimated in February and marks the largest of four consecutive reductions in the median forecast for 2025 GDP growth in the central bank's monthly surveys since December. Mexico's economy decelerated in the fourth quarter of 2024 to an annualized rate of 0.5pc from 1.7pc the previous quarter, the slowest expansion since the first quarter of 2021, according to statistics agency data. Uncertainty over US trade policy has weighed on investment and contributed to the slowdown. Concerns have intensified in recent weeks with US president Donald Trump set to announce sweeping new tariffs on 2 April. Mexico is preparing its response, possibly including reciprocal tariffs, on 3 April. A key concern in Mexico is an expiring carveout to the tariffs for treaties aligned with US-Mexico-Canada (USMCA) free trade agreement rules of origin. Mexico's economy minister said last week ongoing negotiations aim to secure a "preferential tariff," including a continuance of that exclusion and lower tariffs for goods progressing toward USMCA compliance. The median 2026 GDP growth estimate fell to 1.6pc from 1.7pc in February. Analysts again cited security, governance and trade policy as top constraints to growth. Year-end 2025 inflation expectations edged lower to 3.70pc in March from 3.71pc in February. The central bank's board of governors cut Mexico's target interest rate by 50 basis points to 9pc from 9.5pc on 27 March, citing expectations that inflation will continue to slow toward the central bank's 3pc long-term goal and reach 3.3pc by year-end. The board said it would consider additional cuts of that size at future meetings. Mexico's consumer price index accelerated to an annual 3.77pc in February, as slower growth in agricultural prices was offset by faster inflation in services. The target interest rate is projected to fall to 8pc by year-end, compared with 8.25pc in February's survey. The median exchange rate forecast for end-2025 reflected expectations of the peso ending the year slightly stronger at Ps20.80 to the US dollar from Ps20.85/$1 estimated in the prior forecast. The end-2026 estimate firmed slightly to Ps21.30/$1 from Ps21.36/$1. By James Young Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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EU publishes CO2 car standard tweak proposal


01/04/25
News
01/04/25

EU publishes CO2 car standard tweak proposal

Brussels, 1 April (Argus) — The European Commission has published the long-awaited proposal to give automobile manufacturers more flexibility in complying with the bloc's CO2 reduction targets for cars and passenger vehicles in 2025, 2026 and 2027. Those three years would be assessed jointly, rather than annually, averaging out fleet emission performance. EU climate commissioner Wopke Hoekstra said the additional compliance flexibility shows that the commission has "listened" but the EU is still maintaining its zero-emission targets [for new vehicles from 2035]. "Predictability in the sector is crucial for long-term investments," said Hoekstra. The commission urged the European Parliament and EU member states to reach agreement on the targeted amendment "without delay". German centre-right member Jens Gieseke said there is a "broad majority" in parliament to fast-track approval for May. He noted that the car industry faces over €15bn ($16bn) in penalties for non-compliance with the CO2 standards. A member of parliament's largest EPP group, Gieseke also called for the commission to go further towards technological neutrality. "We need different kinds of fuels, e-fuels, biofuels, every fuel which could help to reduce CO2 should be recognized," he added. This second step, withdrawing the phase-out of internal combustion engines (ICE) from 2035 onwards, Gieseke noted, should come in the last quarter of 2025. German Green MEP Michael Bloss disputed the figure of €15bn in potential fines put forward by automotive industry association ACEA. "Even in the worst-case scenario, the total fines for all car manufacturers would not exceed €1bn," said Bloss. "Car manufacturers have had enough time to adjust their production planning. Many have done so," Bloss said, pointing to Automaker Volvo. Under the current 2019 regulation, fines should be imposed on manufacturers for each year in 2025–2029 when they do not reach their specific fleet-wide target CO2 reductions, compared to 2021 values. But manufacturers have the option to form compliance pools with other firms. "European car manufacturers are already talking to Tesla or Chinese manufacturers about so-called pooling, which must be stopped quickly," said EPP climate and environment spokesman Peter Liese. "We want to maintain climate targets, but not make Elon Musk richer through European legislation," said Liese. By Dafydd ab Iago Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Singapore’s base oil imports edge up in February


01/04/25
News
01/04/25

Singapore’s base oil imports edge up in February

Singapore, 1 April (Argus) — Singapore's base oil imports increased for the third consecutive month in February, GTT data show, supported by stable demand in the city state. Import growth slowed in February, in line with a drop in industrial performance. The country's manufacturing output fell by 1.3pc on the year, and by 7.5pc on a seasonally adjusted month-on-month basis, according to data from the Economic Development Board. The overall manufacturing sector grew for the 18th consecutive month, but PMI slipped from 50.9 to 50.7 in February, data from the Singapore Institute of Purchasing and Materials Management show, in line with growing uncertainties over global trade flows. A PMI reading above 50 indicates expansion. Supplies from South Korea recovered from January's five-month low, in line with higher exports from the northeast Asian country, but remained below the five-year monthly average of 12,300t. Lower South Korean volumes were balanced by higher receipts of Taiwanese cargoes, which were likely boosted by delays in customs clearance a month earlier. South Korea and Taiwan are major producers of Group II base oils. Zero imports were recorded from Japan for the third consecutive month. Exports from the Group I supplier have fallen ahead of a series of plant maintenances by Japanese refiners ENEOS and Idemitsu that will affect around 925,000t/yr of refining capacity over February-November. Increased Saudi Arabian cargoes made up for the shortfall in Japanese volumes, with imports recorded for the 10th consecutive month. Saudi Arabia produces Group I and II base oils, but supplies to Singapore likely comprise of mainly Group I volumes because of the regional shortage from permanent plant closures in Japan. By Tara Tang Singapore's base oil imports t Feb'25 m-o-m ± % y-o-y ± % Jan-Feb'25 y-o-y ± % Qatar 23,135.0 -12.2 22.6 49,488.0 74.2 South Korea 9,090.0 30.2 -18.2 16,074.0 -9.3 Taiwan 12,458.0 NA 825.6 12,458.0 119.0 Saudi Arabia 5,306.0 76.9 5.7 8,306.0 65.5 Thailand 5,046.0 -16.4 152.8 11,081.0 234.3 Total 77,915.0 1.9 75.7 154,392.0 129.6 Source: GTT Total includes all countries, not just those listed Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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US base oil export fell nearly 10pc in Dec


28/03/25
News
28/03/25

US base oil export fell nearly 10pc in Dec

Houston, 28 March (Argus) — December US base oil and lubricant exports fell nearly 10pc from year-earlier levels on lower supply and more attractive domestic pricing. The decline in export volumes was driven by weaker demand in Europe as buyers there worked to draw down inventories. Demand also fell in Brazil as a key domestic producer lowered its prices. Several US refiners were uninterested in lowering base oil prices to sell into the export market in December. Multiple turnarounds and less light-grade supplies made inventory building more attractive. Other refiners exported higher volumes in November in preparation for tax assessment season in the end of December. Exports to Mexico were the highest on record for the month of December and the second highest monthly total for 2024. Base oil exports to West coast South America fell for a third consecutive month on muted buying interest because of sufficient domestic supplies. By Karly Lamm Dec US base oil exports unit 24-Dec m-o-m ± % y-o-y ± % Mexico 1,990,000 13.1 13.2 Brazil 195,000 -26.7 -70.0 India 118,000 -8.5 -4.8 Europe 326,000 5.2 -43.4 WSCA 169,000 -41.9 11.0 Monthly total 3,848,000 -1.0 -9.9 Energy Information Administration (EIA) *Total includes all countires, not just those listed *WCSA includes Chile, Ecuador and Peru *Europe includes Belgium, France and the Netherlands Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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