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Ruling affirms Citgo risk to Venezuelan debts: Update

  • Market: Crude oil, Oil products
  • 29/07/19

Updates throughout, adds comment.

Appellate judges today affirmed that companies may seek shares of entities controlling US independent refiner Citgo to satisfy billions of dollars in Venezuelan debts.

The decision could upend control of Venezuela's most valuable overseas asset and a key anchor to the impoverished country's loans, opening a path to compensation for more than a dozen entities with assets expropriated by Venezuelan governments. An auction of Citgo shares could move forward as early as September unless the US Treasury's Office of Foreign Assets Control (Ofac) declares such transactions blocked by US sanctions, a senior financial sector executive close to Venezuela's creditors told Argus.

The unanimous three-judge panel also rejected arguments that third-party bondholders must be considered in reaching that decision, finding that any lenders to national oil company PdV had ample notice of the government's involvement in the company.

Venezuelan attorneys argued that the country's interests in Citgo were immune from such attachments. But the US Third Circuit Court of Appeals panel found that Venezuela's involvement in PdV easily cleared a legal determination that the company effectively served as alter-ego of the Venezuelan government, and that entities seeking assets to satisfy numerous arbitration awards could attach its US companies controlling Citgo.

"Indeed, if the relationship between Venezuela and PdV cannot satisfy the Supreme Court's extensive-control requirement, we know nothing that can," the opinion said.

Judges affirmed a district court finding last fall that Citgo assets were directly held by Venezuela despite the use of US subsidiaries. That finding allowed the defunct mining firm Crystallex, now controlled by New York-based investment firm Tenor, to seek payment of a $1.2bn arbitration award for Venezuela's expropriation of the company's Las Cristinas gold mining assets almost a decade ago.

"The Third Circuit's decision is a crucial step in getting Venezuela finally to honor its legal obligations," Crystallex chief executive Bob Fung said. "We look forward to proceeding with our lien to recover at least part of our expropriated investment in Venezuela."

PdV did not comment, and Citgo and Treasury did not respond to requests for comment.

Appellate court judges in Philadelphia questioned in an April hearing why Citgo should be immune from the billions of dollars of debts accrued by the Venezuelan government. The panel said today that Venezuelan national oil company and Citgo owner PdV failed to show significant separation between the government and the national oil firm.

Citgo's 750,000 b/d of complex refining capacity and fuel network west of the Rocky Mountains make a lucrative target for the country's creditors, who seek more than $150bn. These most valuable overseas assets fall subject to the US court system and an executive branch that does not recognize President Nicolas Maduro's government.

That change in White House recognition has rippled through more than a dozen separate petitions in US courts for recognition of arbitration awards for expropriated assets over the past decade. The US-recognized opposition headed by National Assembly leader Juan Guaido repeatedly requested judges overseeing petitions from oil services companies, defense contractors, plastics manufacturers and ranchers to delay proceedings so the new leadership could review the cases — and judges almost always said yes. The Third Circuit recognized Guaido's representatives as speaking for Venezuela, though noted "there is reason to believe that Guaido's regime does not have meaningful control over Venezuela or its principal instrumentalities such as PdV." The government dropped requests for a stay in this case as oral arguments began.

The appellate opinion dealt another setback to the Venezuelan opposition. Guaido declared himself interim president on 23 January, a move recognized by the US and more than 50 western governments that led directly to US sanctions on PdV. Guaido-appointed directors have controlled Citgo since February. But both the Maduro and Guaido governments now face a potential loss of control over its profitable US refining system and the exit of US oil major Chevron as a key bond payment comes due in October.

Crystallex "repeatedly reached out to Venezuela's interim government to seek a fair settlement that would compensate Crystallex for its property and preserve the value of Citgo for the Venezuelan people," the company said today.

The company was asked if that offer was extended.

"We look forward to proceeding with the legal process to recover the value of our expropriated investment in Venezuela," the company said.


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22/04/25

Tariff ‘shock’ prompts IMF to cut growth outlook

Tariff ‘shock’ prompts IMF to cut growth outlook

Washington, 22 April (Argus) — Global economic growth is expected to be significantly lower in 2025-26 than previously anticipated because of the steep tariffs President Donald Trump is pursuing for most imports and the uncertainty his policies are generating, the IMF said. The IMF, in its latest World Economic Outlook released today, forecasts the global economy will grow by 2.8pc in 2025 and 3pc in 2026. That compares with the 3.3pc/yr growth for 2025-26 that the IMF was expecting just three months ago. Today's forecast is based on the tariffs that Trump had in place as of 4 April, before he paused steep tariffs on most countries and escalated tarrifs on China. These barriers had pushed up the effective US tariff rate to levels "not seen in a century", the IMF said. While Trump has altered his tariff levels repeatedly, he has imposed an across-the-board 10pc tariff on most imports, a 25pc tariff on steel and aluminum, a 25pc tariff on some imports from Canada and Mexico, and a 145pc tariff on most imports from China. "This on its own is a major negative shock to growth," the IMF said. "The unpredictability with which these measures have been unfolding also has a negative impact on economic activity and the outlook." IMF forecasts are used by many economists to model oil demand projections. The US and its closest trading partners appear to be among those hardest hit by tariffs and corresponding trade countermeasures. The IMF's baseline scenario forecasts US growth at 1.8pc this year, a decrease of 0.9 percentage points from the forecast the IMF released in January, reflecting higher policy uncertainty, trade tensions and softer demand outlook. Mexico's economy is now projected to shrink by 0.3pc in 2025, rather than grow by 1.4pc, while Canada's growth is forecast at 1.4pc in 2025, down from 2pc. The release of the IMF report comes as Trump has given no indications of a shift in thinking on tariffs, which he says are generating billions of dollars for the US and will prompt companies to relocate their manufacturing capacity to the US. "THE BUSINESSMEN WHO CRITICIZE TARIFFS ARE BAD AT BUSINESS, BUT REALLY BAD AT POLITICS. THEY DON'T UNDERSTAND OR REALIZE THAT I AM THE GREATEST FRIEND THAT AMERICAN CAPITALISM HAS EVER HAD!" Trump wrote on social media on 20 April. The next day, major stock markets indexes declined by more than 2pc, continuing their crash from when Trump began announcing his tariff policies. Trump on 21 April escalated his attacks against US Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell for failing to lower interest rates as Trump has demanded. There could be a "SLOWING of the economy unless Mr. Too Late" — his nickname for Powell — "a major loser, lowers interest rates, NOW," Trump wrote. The IMF also ratcheted down its expectations for the Chinese economy. China's economy is expected to grow by 4pc/yr in 2025-26, down from the 4.6 and 4.5pc, respectively, the IMF was anticipating in January. The euro area is forecast to grow by 0.8pc in 2025 and 1.2pc in 2026, a decrease of 0.2 percentage points from the IMF's previous forecast. By Chris Knight Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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IMO incentive to shape bio-bunker choices: Correction


21/04/25
News
21/04/25

IMO incentive to shape bio-bunker choices: Correction

Corrects B30 pricing in paragraph 5. New York, 21 April (Argus) — An International Maritime Organization (IMO) proposal for ship owners who exceed emissions reduction targets to earn surplus credits will play a key role in biofuel bunkering options going forward. The price of these credits will help determine whether B30 or B100 becomes the preferred bio-bunker fuel for vessels not powered by LNG or methanol. It will also influence whether biofuel adoption is accelerated or delayed beyond 2032. At the conclusion of its meeting earlier this month the IMO proposed a dual-incentive mechanism to curb marine GHG emissions starting in 2028. The system combines penalties for non-compliance with financial incentives for over-compliance, aiming to shift ship owner behavior through both "stick" and "carrot" measures. As the "carrot", ship owners whose emissions fall below the IMO's stricter compliance target will receive surplus credits, which can be traded on the open market. The "stick" will introduce a two-tier penalty system. If emissions fall between the base and direct GHG emissions tiers, vessel operators will pay a fixed penalty of $100/t CO2-equivalent. Ship owners whose emissions exceed the looser, tier 2, base target will incur a penalty of $380/t CO2e. Both tiers tighten annually through 2035. The overcompliance credits will be traded on the open market. It is unlikely that they will exceed the cost of the tier 2 penalty of $380/t CO2e. Argus modeled two surplus credit price scenarios — $70/t and $250/t CO2e — to assess their impact on bunker fuel economics. Assessments from 10-17 April showed Singapore very low-sulphur fuel oil (VLSFO) at $481/t, Singapore B30 at $740/t, and Chinese used cooking oil methyl ester (Ucome), or B100, at $1,143/t (see charts). If the outright prices remain flat, in both scenarios, VLSFO would incur tier 1 and tier 2 penalties, raising its effective cost to around $563/t in 2028. B30 in both scenarios would receive credits putting its price at $653/t and $715/t respectively. In the high surplus credit scenario, B100 would earn roughly $580/t in credits, bringing its net cost to about $563/t, on par with VLSFO, and more competitive than B30. In the low surplus credit scenario, B100 would earn just $162/t in credits, lowering its cost to approximately $980/t, well above VLSFO. At these spot prices, and $250/t CO2e surplus credit, B100 would remain the cheapest fuel option through 2035. At $70/t CO2e surplus credit, B30 becomes cost-competitive with VLSFO only after 2032. Ultimately, the market value of IMO over-compliance credits will be a major factor in determining the timing and extent of global biofuel adoption in the marine sector. By Stefka Wechsler Scenario 1, $70/t surplus credit $/t Scenario 2, $250/t surplus credit $/t Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Calif. refinery resupply rule vote postponed


21/04/25
News
21/04/25

Calif. refinery resupply rule vote postponed

Houston, 21 April (Argus) — California regulators delayed a vote this week on new refinery resupply rules meant to mitigate retail gasoline price spikes, but refiners are still wary that the state is moving to make the most regulated market in the US even tougher. The California Energy Commission (CEC) had scheduled a vote on refinery resupply rules at its 24 April business meeting but said the meeting is now postponed to allow for additional feedback and consultation with stakeholders. The draft rules under consideration would require refiners to submit resupply plans to the state at least 120 days before any planned maintenance in September and October that would cause California specification gasoline production to decline by 20,000 b/d for at least 21 days or a total of more than 450,000 bl. Large spikes in California prices occurred in the fall of 2022 and 2023. The commission is also planning rulemaking this year on minimum inventory requirements to avoid price spikes in the event of unplanned events, as well as possible rules on setting a refiner margin cap. The timing of the new regulations is precarious, as two major refineries in the state are planning to shut operations within a year. Independent refiner Valero said on 16 April it is planning to shut or re-purpose its 145,000 b/d refinery in Benicia, California and continues to evaluate strategic alternatives for its other refinery in the state – the 85,000 b/d Wilmington facility. In addition, Phillips 66 is planning to shut its 139,000 b/d Los Angeles refinery later this year. Effort to stop gasoline price spikes The California rules stem from two pieces of legislation signed by California governor Gavin Newsom known as AB X2-1 and SB X1-2, part of a multi-year effort to mitigate price volatility in the state, after some of the highest gasoline prices ever recorded in the fall of 2022. US refiners have long opposed the new regulations seeing them as a political attack on the industry, conflicting with other laws and the latest example of an increasingly difficult regulatory environment in the state. The CEC has conducted workshops to help draft the rules with the participation of labor groups, the refining industry, environmental justice groups, community advocates, and the public. The industry was largely represented by the Western States Petroleum Association (WSPA). WSPA told the commission that the resupply rule could conflict with existing statutory requirements for refiners not to withhold fuel from the market and could result in market distortions and undesirable price impacts. The rules could also make it hard for Arizona and Nevada to secure needed supplies in the face of regulations expressly favoring Californians' access to fuel, WSPA said. The rules could also force refiners to use "uneconomic strategies" to secure non-spot market resupplies and additional capital to guarantee inventories that could potentially lead to higher gasoline prices, the group said. AB X2-1 forbids the CEC from adopting any regulation "unless it finds that the likely benefits to consumers from avoiding price volatility outweigh the potential costs to consumers." WSPA said it is concerned that the CEC does not "have the facts in front of it to legitimately support such a finding" with respect to imposing the resupply requirement. Under the draft resupply rules, refiners must show they can secure sufficient supply to ensure that lost gasoline production anticipated during the maintenance does not adversely affect the California transportation fuels market. The plan must show a resupply volume of at least 85pc of the anticipated lost gasoline production during the maintenance and the resupply volumes must match the seasonal specification of the lost production. The resupply plans could include imports and each barrel of resupply obtained by imports will count as 1.3 barrels of resupply. In addition, a plan that includes resupply through the purchase or storage of gasoline blendstocks or gasoline blending components must explain how such materials will result in an equivalent amount of California specification gasoline. Non-compliance could carry a civil penalty of $100,000-$1mn per day. Refineries with capacity under 30,000 b/d are exempt from the resupply regulation. The rules would apply to five major refiners operating in the state — Chevron, PBF Energy, Phillips 66, Valero and Marathon. Phillips 66, however, will be closing its Los Angeles refinery by October and converted a refinery in Rodeo, California, to renewable fuels in 2024. Since the 1980s, 29 refineries in California have been shut or integrated with other refineries that eventually closed or converted to renewable fuels production, according to CEC data. About half of the shut refineries were smaller operations, producing less than 20,000 b/d. Looking at options The CEC caused a stir in August 2024 when it released its Transportation Fuels Assessment, which examined policy options to mitigate price spikes and transition away from fossil fuels including the state of California buying and owning refineries. The assessment said this could range from one refinery to all refineries in the state. But the document also highlighted problems with such a plan, including the high cost of buying refineries, significant legal issues, and the fact that the state has no experience managing complex industrial processes. California is not currently pursuing this option, state officials said. Another idea in the Transportation Fuels Assessment involved state-owned product reserves in the north and south of California to allow rapid deployment of fuel when needed. This could include "up to several hundred thousand barrels." The CEC and the California Air Resources Board are drafting a formal Transportation Fuels Transition Plan which will serve as a road map to move away from fossil fuels. A draft of the report will be released later this year. The Transportation Fuels Assessment and the Transportation Fuels Transition Plan were mandated under SB X1-2. By Eunice Bridges Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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IMF anticipates lower growth from US tariffs


17/04/25
News
17/04/25

IMF anticipates lower growth from US tariffs

Washington, 17 April (Argus) — Economic growth projections set for release next week will include "notable markdowns" caused by higher US tariffs that have been disrupting trade and stressing financial markets, IMF managing director Kristalina Georgieva said today. The IMF earlier this month warned that the tariffs that President Donald Trump was placing on trading partners could pose a "significant risk" to the global economy. Those higher trade barriers are on track to reduce growth, raise prices for consumers and create incremental costs related to uncertainty, the IMF plans to say in its World Economic Outlook on 22 April. "Our new growth projections will include notable markdowns, but not recession," Georgieva said Thursday in a speech previewing the outlook. "We will also see markups to the inflation forecasts for some countries." Trump has already placed an across-the-board 10pc tariff on most trading partners, with higher tariffs on some goods from Canada and Mexico, a 145pc tariff on China, and an exception for most energy imports. Those tariffs — combined with Trump's on-again, off-again threats to impose far higher tariffs — have been fueling uncertainty for businesses and trading partners. The recent tariff "increases, pauses, escalations and exemption" will likely have significant consequences for the global economy, Georgieva said, resulting in a postponement of investment decisions, ships at sea not knowing where to sail, precautionary savings and more volatile financial markets. Higher tariffs will cause an upfront hit to economic growth, she said, and could cause a shift in trade under which some sectors could be "flooded by cheap imports" while other sectors face shortages. The IMF has yet to release its latest growth projections. But in January, IMF expected global growth would hold steady at 3.3pc this year with lower inflation. The IMF at the time had forecast the US economy would grow by 2.7pc, with 1pc growth in Europe and 4.5pc growth in China. The upcoming markdown in growth projections from the IMF aligns with analyses from many banks and economists. US Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell on 16 April said the recent increase in tariffs were likely to contribute to "higher inflation and slower growth". Those comments appear to have infuriated Trump, who has wanted Powell to cut interest rates in hopes of stimulating growth in the US. "Powell's termination cannot come fast enough!" Trump wrote today on social media. Powell's term as chair does not end until May 2026. Under a longstanding US Supreme Court case called Humphrey's Executor , Trump does not have the authority to unilaterally fire commissioners at independent agencies such as the Federal Reserve. Trump has already done so at other agencies such as the US Federal Trade Commission, creating a potential avenue to overturn the decision. By Chris Knight Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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BP defends pivot in face of investor discontent


17/04/25
News
17/04/25

BP defends pivot in face of investor discontent

London, 17 April (Argus) — BP's chairman Helge Lund took the brunt of a mini-revolt against the strategy pivot that the company announced in late February , as he saw support for his re-election slide at the firm's annual general meeting (AGM) in London today. Lund — who already plans to step down from his role as BP's chair — saw the proportion of votes cast in favour of his re-election drop to 75.7pc, well down on the 95.89pc support he secured at last year's AGM. Prior to this year's meeting, climate activist shareholder group Follow This had said that a vote against Lund was still required to signal concern about BP's governance in the absence of a "say-on-climate" vote following the company's recent strategy revamp which included dropping a 2030 limit on its oil and gas production and investing less on low-carbon assets. Institutional investor Legal and General said last week that it would be voting against the re-election of Lund and that it is "deeply concerned" about the company's strategy change. Commenting on today's vote, Follow This said BP's shareholders had "delivered an unprecedented high level of dissent" that signals deep investor concern about climate and governance. The vote "sends a clear signal" that Lund's successor "needs to be climate and transition competent" and show "resistance to short-term activists", the group added. US activist investor Elliott Investment Management, which has a track record of forcing change at resources companies, has reportedly built a stake of around 5pc in BP . Lund told shareholders at the meeting that BP had carried out "extensive engagement" concerning its strategy change, including sounding out 75pc of its institutional shareholder base, and that a majority did not want a "say-on-climate" vote. He also insisted that the recent strategy shift had been very carefully considered by BP's board and leadership team. These considerations involved a review of a broad range of scenarios including the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's and BP's own ambition to be a net-zero company by 2050. Earlier in the meeting, BP chief executive Murray Auchincloss conceded that the company had been "optimistic for a fast [energy] transition but that optimism was misplaced", noting that despite many areas of strength within BP it went "too far too fast" so that "a fundamental reset was needed". Asked by an investor about how BP plans to mitigate the effects of the tariffs on imports to the US imposed by President Donald Trump this month , Auchincloss said the company was "tracking the situation carefully". The steel and aluminium tariffs that have been introduced by Washington should not affect BP's onshore business in the US but there are some impacts on the speciality steels the firm brings into the US for its offshore facilities in the US Gulf of Mexico, he said. Auchincloss received 97.3pc of shareholder votes in favour of his re-election, while finance chief Kate Thomson received 98.7pc support for her re-election. All other directors, apart from Lund, received votes greater than 92.9pc in favour of their re-election. By Jon Mainwaring Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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