OECD cancels CLI release

Market: Biofuels, Chemicals, Coal, Crude oil, LPG, Metals, Natural gas, Oil products, Petrochemicals
09/03/20

The OECD has cancelled its scheduled monthly release of composite leading indicators (CLI), because of the rapid spread of the coronavirus outbreak.

The OECD said the monthly assessment, which is designed to anticipate turning points in economic activity relative to trend 6-9 months ahead, has not been able to capture the effects of the outbreak, such is the rapidity of the spread.

"In Europe, for example, tendency surveys were collected before the scale of the… outbreak in northern Italy became known," the OECD said. "In countries such as China, Japan and Korea, which were all much closer to the epicentre of the outbreak, the effects have already started to appear in CLI sub-components, and so too, in our current assessment for these countries, which is easing growth momentum."

The OECD last month highlighted a "high degree of uncertainty" in its CLI assessment arising from the coronavirus outbreak. The survey last month pointed to stable growth momentum, albeit below long-term trends, just as they did in January. The OECD will release its next CLI survey in April.

The effects of the coronavirus, including travel restrictions and slowing economic activity, are having a deleterious effect on oil demand. The IEA today said it expects global demand to fall this year, for the first time since 2009.

By Ben Winkley

Related news posts

Argus illuminates the markets by putting a lens on the areas that matter most to you. The market news and commentary we publish reveals vital insights that enable you to make stronger, well-informed decisions. Explore a selection of news stories related to this one.

News

14/04/25

Ecuador's Noboa wins reelection with ample margin

Quito, 14 April (Argus) — Ecuador's president Daniel Noboa won reelection in a run-off on Sunday with 56pc of the vote, a wider margin than projected after a tight first-round race in February . Electoral authority (CNE) head Diana Atamaint confirmed the results with 93pc of votes counted. Noboa will hold office through May 2029. Security has topped voters' concerns as gang violence has increased in recent years, and Noboa has vowed a tough approach on crime. He also wants to attract more private-sector investment to Ecuador's energy sector, with hopes of boosting crude production of about 467,000 b/d. His challenger, Luisa Gonzalez, obtained only 44pc, but she did not recognize Noboa's win and has called for a recount. She belongs to the left-wing Revolucion Ciudadana party, sponsored by former president Rafael Correa, a close friend of presidents Nicolas Maduro of Venezuela and Daniel Ortega of Nicaragua. She promised more state-led energy-sector investment. Noboa won with a difference of about 1.1mn votes out of the 10.5mn Ecuadorians that voted, the CNE said. He called the results overwhelmingly in his favor, speaking from his residency in Santa Elena province. He will hold office through May 2029. The Organization of American States (OAS) declared the voting process normal based on the participation of 84 of its observers. None of the 40,000 observers from Gonzalez's Revolucion Ciudadana party or Noboa's ADN party denounced irregularities. Noboa will continue in power with no single party holding a majority in the national assembly, Ecuador's 151-member unicameral congress, based on results from the 9 February congressional and first-round presidential election. Revolucion Ciudadana will have the first minority with 67 members, followed by ADN with 66 members and 18 members from another five parties. Noboa will be sworn in on 24 May. He took office in November 2023 to fulfill the mandate of former president Guillermo Lasso, who dissolved the national assembly in May 2023 and called for anticipated elections. By Alberto Araujo Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Find out more

News

Keystone oil pipeline to restart by 15 April

13/04/25

News

13/04/25

Keystone oil pipeline to restart by 15 April

Houston, 13 April (Argus) — The 622,000 b/d Keystone crude pipeline is expected to resume service by 15 April, following a leak in North Dakota that shut deliveries last week. Calgary-based pipeline operator South Bow said the repair and replacement of the leaking section of pipe was taking place over the weekend. Once the company meets the terms of a corrective action order (CAO) issued by the US Pipeline and Hazardous Materials Safety Administration (PHMSA), it will be able to resume service. The pipeline has been off line since early on 8 April, when a leak was discovered in a rural field near Kathryn, North Dakota. An estimated 3,500 bl of crude was released but did not appear to have reached any waterways. "Keystone is targeting restoration of service and energy deliveries by Tuesday April 15, 2025, under the requirements of the CAO," South Bow said. "South Bow will require approval from PHMSA prior to restarting the pipeline." Under the CAO, South Bow must run metallurgical testing of the failed section of pipe, conduct a root cause analysis and meet other requirements. The pipeline system will also have to comply with certain pressure restrictions on Canadian sections of the line. The Keystone system is a major route for Canadian heavy crude destined for both the US midcontinent and the US Gulf coast, delivering about 15pc of the roughly 4mn b/d that the US imports from its northern neighbor. The line runs from the Canadian production and storage hub at Hardisty, Alberta, to Steele City, Nebraska, before splitting in two to head toward Illinois and the Gulf coast. Discounts for Western Canadian Select (WCS) at Hardisty to the CMA Nymex narrowed at the end of last week despite the shutdown, because of low inventories in Hardisty and open pipeline space on Canadian crude pipelines, including Enbridge's 3mn b/d Mainline system to the US midcontinent and the 890,000 b/d Trans Mountain pipeline to the Canadian Pacific coast. Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

News

Recycled resin importers caught in tariff uncertainty

11/04/25

News

11/04/25

Recycled resin importers caught in tariff uncertainty

Houston, 11 April (Argus) — US President Donald Trump's evolving tariff policies have created tremendous uncertainty for US importers of recycled polymers, and constant halts and flip-flopping from the administration have led some to pause their US operations. Multiple importers told Argus that the constantly changing US tariffs on goods have upended business plans, and forced them to pause their US operations for the time being due to uncertainty about the taxes their material will face when it reaches US shores. "You have to have some confidence that conditions will hold in order to import," one trader told Argus . Trump's tariff rollout began on 1 February, when he announced that China would face a 10pc universal tariff, and the US's two largest trading partners, Mexico and Canada, would face 25pc universal tariffs. At the time, market participants speculated that the 25pc tariffs on Canada and Mexico would make operations and sales more expensive for Mexican and Canadian recyclers, particularly those that trade bales or finished resin across the US border. After some negotiations between world leaders, the tariffs on Canada and Mexico were delayed for 30 days, though the 10pc tariff on China went into effect as planned. The 25pc universal tariffs on Canada and Mexico were pushed back again on 6 March, but tariffs on aluminum — a significant competitor to rPET packaging — went into place on 12 March. The tariffs on aluminum have not been rescinded or paused, and the extra cost for imported aluminum as a result of the tariff could incentivize US consumer goods companies to use more PET in their packaging. On 9 April, the US put into place varying reciprocal tariffs on a number of countries that export recycled resin to the US, including India, Malaysia and Vietnam. While rPET and vPET pellets were excluded from the reciprocal tariffs, importers of rPE, rPP and PET waste were not excluded from the tariff. The same day, the reciprocal tariffs were pushed back 90 days in favor of a 10pc universal tariff that excludes Canada and Mexico. China and the US's reciprocal tariffs have escalated into a trade war, and currently material from China faces a 145pc tariff. Since the price is too high for most importers to be willing to pay, in essence all recycled resin imports from China are halted. China is one of the largest buyers of US virgin polyethylene https://direct.argusmedia.com/newsandanalysis/article/2675420), and the current trade war with China has the potential to increase domestic supply as exporters are forced to find new buyers for resin. Increased competition from oversupplied virgin resin could pull down recycled resin pricing. Until some stability in tariff policy returns to the US, traders and importers will continue to turn to other destinations outside the US to sell their recycled resin. By Zach Kluver Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

News

Mexico suspends Valero fuel import permits

11/04/25

News

11/04/25

Mexico suspends Valero fuel import permits

Mexico City, 11 April (Argus) — Mexico's tax authority SAT on 9 April suspended US refiner Valero's fuel import permits, the company said today. The company did not specify why its import license was suspended. "Valero is addressing each administrative observation noted in the suspension to clarify the issues. Additionally, [authorities] mistakenly stated that the company does not have valid import permits, which is incorrect since the permits are valid through 2038," the company said. When consulted, Valero told Argus it has no further information to share at this time. In Mexico, Valero holds gasoline, diesel and jet fuel import permits valid through 2038. The company is one of only a handful of private-sector companies with such permits. Shell, Marathon and ExxonMobil hold permits to import only gasoline and diesel. Valero is the leading private fuel importer in Mexico. On 9 April, its sales accounted for 10pc of Mexico's gasoline and diesel demand, according to the company. Private-sector companies started importing fuel into Mexico in 2016 after the market opened to more competition, but under former president Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador's administration, the energy ministry (Sener) cancelled dozens of fuel import permits. Valero is cooperating with the Mexican government and has recently joined a voluntary price cap agreement to keep regular gasoline below Ps24/l ($4.45/USG), the company said, adding that it "implements rigorous traceability and security controls throughout its supply chain." The company stores fuel at four private-sector terminals in Mexico, with over 4mn bl of capacity. The company is also expected to start storing fuel at the new 1.1mn bl OTM terminal in Altamira, Tamaulipas, in the near future. By Cas Biekmann Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

News

Opec+ overproducers cast doubt on compensation pledges

11/04/25

News

11/04/25

Opec+ overproducers cast doubt on compensation pledges

Output is set to rise in the coming months, with Kazakhstan and Iraq unlikely to live up to commitments to rein in production, writes Aydin Calik London, 11 April (Argus) — The Opec+ alliance's planned production increases in April and May should, in theory, be offset by pledges to compensate for past overproduction, particularly by Kazakhstan and Iraq. But there are few signs that either country will significantly reduce output in the coming weeks. If anything, Kazakhstan has signalled that production will continue at or near record levels of around 1.8mn b/d , putting it some 300,000 b/d above its Opec+ target. Opec+ members subject to targets cut output by 90,000 b/d to 33.93mn b/d in March, according to Argus estimates, but this was still 80,000 b/d above the group's collective crude production target of 33.85mn b/d. The decision by a core group of eight Opec+ members to accelerate the return of 2.2mn b/d of production cuts is a key reason for the recent slide in oil prices, alongside US tariff announcements. But Opec+ has stressed that its implied output increase of 137,000 b/d for April and another 411,000 b/d in May should be cancelled out by compensation-related cuts of 249,000 b/d for April and 309,000 b/d in May. In reality, this is unlikely to happen — the group's output is set to rise. Kazakhstan is the main reason why Opec+ has exceeded its target over the past two months. Kazakh production has surged following a major output increase at the Chevron-led Tengiz field in January — part of the field's future growth project (FGP). Tengiz production rose to a record 901,000 b/d in March, compared with previous levels of 600,000-660,000 b/d. The increase came several months earlier than anticipated, Kazakh officials say, and they have subsequently asked international oil companies that operate Tengiz and the Kashagan oil field to reduce output. But the answer has so far been negative. "Unfortunately, we have not yet agreed with them to the reduction, because for them it is a very challenging action, especially Chevron, [which] spent $50bn on the FGP project. They told us it's not possible for them to reduce [output]," deputy energy minister Alibek Zhamauov said this week. Kazakhstan will try to reduce production from smaller fields operated by domestic producers such as state-controlled Kazmunaigaz, Zhamauov said. But any decrease from these fields will not be enough to offset the rise from Tengiz. Target practice Iraq's output dipped below its 4mn b/d target in March at 3.98mn b/d, but this was still well above the country's effective target of 3.88mn b/d under its compensation plan. If Iraq's past production record is anything to go by, its output is unlikely to fall much further in the months ahead. While Kazakhstan and Iraq are unlikely to see much change in their production, members such as Saudi Arabia and the UAE are set to drive the alliance's output higher. The biggest increase is expected from Saudi Arabia, which will see its 8.98mn b/d target rise by 222,000 b/d by May, offset only marginally by its compensation plans. Riyadh has already signalled that it is preparing to increase production after state-controlled Saudi Aramco cut the official formula price of its May-loading crude exports. The largest cut was for buyers in Asia-Pacific, Saudi Arabia's biggest market. Formula prices can indicate intentions on output, as producers fine-tune how affordable their crude is for marginal refiners. The second-largest production increase is set to come from the UAE, which has long been eager to raise output . The UAE will see its target rise by 103,000 b/d by May, which will also only be offset marginally by its compensation plan. Russia is also scheduled to deliver a significant production increase over the next two months, with its target rising by 105,000 b/d. But all of this increase will be cancelled out if the country sticks to its compensation plan. Opec+ crude production mn b/d Mar Feb* Mar target† ± target Opec 9 21.22 21.36 21.23 -0.01 Non-Opec 9 12.71 12.66 12.62 0.09 Total Opec+ 18 33.93 34.02 33.85 0.08 *revised †includes additional cuts where applicable Opec wellhead production mn b/d Mar Feb* Mar target† ± target Saudi Arabia 8.98 8.93 8.98 0.00 Iraq 3.98 4.05 4.00 -0.02 Kuwait 2.42 2.43 2.41 0.01 UAE 2.91 2.93 2.91 -0.00 Algeria 0.92 0.92 0.91 0.01 Nigeria 1.49 1.58 1.50 -0.01 Congo (Brazzaville) 0.26 0.24 0.28 -0.02 Gabon 0.20 0.22 0.17 0.03 Equatorial Guinea 0.06 0.06 0.07 -0.01 Opec 9 21.22 21.36 21.23 -0.01 Iran 3.34 3.38 na na Libya 1.36 1.39 na na Venezuela 0.87 0.84 na na Total Opec 12^ 26.79 26.97 na na *revised †includes additional cuts where applicable ^Iran, Libya and Venezuela are exempt from production targets Non-Opec crude production mn b/d Mar Feb* Mar target† ± target Russia 8.97 8.96 8.98 -0.01 Oman 0.75 0.75 0.76 -0.01 Azerbaijan 0.47 0.47 0.55 -0.08 Kazakhstan 1.79 1.76 1.47 0.32 Malaysia 0.36 0.36 0.40 -0.04 Bahrain 0.18 0.18 0.20 -0.02 Brunei 0.10 0.09 0.08 0.02 Sudan 0.02 0.02 0.06 -0.04 South Sudan 0.07 0.07 0.12 -0.05 Total non-Opec 12.71 12.66 12.62 0.09 *revised †includes additional cuts where applicable Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Business intelligence reports

Get concise, trustworthy and unbiased analysis of the latest trends and developments in oil and energy markets. These reports are specially created for decision makers who don’t have time to track markets day-by-day, minute-by-minute.

Learn more