News
18/03/25
NWE HVO paper trade at record high on mandates, policy
London, 18 March (Argus) — Higher mandates and policy changes are poised to
continue to support Northwest Europe HVO paper market liquidity, after a record
high of 42,000t of hydrotreated vegetable oil (HVO) Class II Ice futures
contracts was traded on 14 March. HVO Class II fob ARA trading activity on the
Intercontinental Exchange (Ice) rose as European fuel suppliers increasingly
seek renewable diesel made from used cooking oil (UCO) to meet higher mandates
and overcome the 7pc restriction for blending conventional methyl ester
biodiesel into diesel. The total traded volume for the first two weeks of March
(1-14) was 120,000t, close to the previous full-month high in January of
138,000t (see chart). The Ice contract — a cash-settled future that settles
based on Argus spot price assessments — launched in 2022 as both a differential
to Ice low sulphur gasoil and outright, with the former most commonly traded.
Physical HVO interest has been more measured through the beginning of 2025,
although spot trade rose year on year. Changes to key biofuels policies in
Germany and the Netherlands are expected to support overall demand and
anticipation of this has supported HVO paper liquidity. Germany has paused the
carryover of surplus tickets that would otherwise go towards meeting its
greenhouse gas (GHG) savings quota, meaning obligated parties will have to use
more physical biofuels to meet mandates, while the Netherlands has limited the
amount of tickets allowed to be carried from year to year, driving a similar
dynamic. The start of the year is often a slower physical trading period in
northwest Europe as market participants look to finish off compliance
submissions for the previous year. Anticipating changes to ticket carryover
policies, some physical biofuels were stored in tank to be used at the start of
the year, particularly in Germany, suppressing prompt demand. Class II HVO has
also been affected by high feedstock prices, which have pressured production
margins, and strong imports from east of Suez. Ticket values in Germany and the
Netherlands have been below the equivalent cost of blending physical Class II
HVO, further limiting demand. In the Dutch market HBE-IXB prices have been
pressured by supply of UCO-based sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) blends, which
generate 2.4 HBEs per GJ as per the biofuel portion, while German ticket prices
have been affected by lower diesel demand and a focus on finishing off 2024
balances. The prompt/front-month price spread for Class II, which gives an
indication of the prompt market's strength or weakness, has been volatile for
the past month according to Argus assessments (see chart). The spread flipped
into contango for the first week of March following a supply surge which weighed
on European prices , then returned to backwardation as HVO prices tracked UCO
and UCO-based biodiesel prices higher. Prompt UCO prices have in turn been
supported by tighter global supply following a protracted export ban from
Indonesia, which is still expected to be temporary, contributing to the forward
curve backwardation. HVO paper trading on 14 March focused on the upcoming three
months. An April/May spread traded at $10/t ($1,055/t, $1,045/t) for
5,000t/month, or 10,000t total, a May/June spread traded at $5/t ($1,045/t,
$1,040/t) for 13,000t/month, or 26,000t total, and a second quarter contract
traded at $1,065/t for 2,000t/month, or 6,000t total. All of the trades were as
premiums to front-month Ice gasoil. By Simone Burgin HVO Class II AOM and Ice
monthly totals t HVO Class II fob ARA range prompt and month 1 t Send comments
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