News
12/11/24
Finnish, Baltic gas demand falls on year in October
Finnish, Baltic gas demand falls on year in October
London, 12 November (Argus) — Aggregate Finnish and Baltic gas consumption
dropped by nearly 24pc on the year in October, but still reached a six-month
high as the heating season began. Combined demand in Finland, Estonia, Latvia
and Lithuania last month rose to 3.19TWh from 2.61TWh in September , in line
with the typical seasonal progression, but was well below the 4.18TWh consumed a
year earlier and the average of roughly 5.2TWh in 2018-21 ( see consumption
graph, data and download ). Demand in all four individual countries was lower on
the year, with the biggest drop in Lithuania, where consumption fell by more
than 600GWh. In October 2023, the region's biggest consumer Achema had briefly
resumed full production at both of its ammonia production units at Jonava ,
boosting Lithuanian demand that month. Despite the year-on-year drop, this was
the fifth consecutive month-on-month increase after demand hit a near two-year
low in May. Cumulative demand in the first 10 months of the year totalled 35TWh,
well up from 30.3TWh a year earlier. That said, strong demand in the first
quarter when the region experienced a prolonged cold snap supported a slightly
skewed figure. If only considering April-October, demand of 18.5TWh was slightly
below last year's 18.9TWh and well under the 30TWh average in 2018-21. This may
indicate a more structural decline in the region's gas demand, particularly with
power-sector demand falling as higher nuclear and renewables output cuts into
the room left available for gas in the generation stack. Gas-fired power
generation in the four countries totalled 186GWh last month, Fraunhofer ISE data
show. This was well below 307GWh in October 2023, and the second lowest for any
October since at least 2018 ( see gas-fired power graph ). Gas-fired output was
lower on the year in all four countries, with roughly 40GWh drops in Lithuania,
Finland and Latvia. Onshore wind production in Finland, by far the region's
largest overall power producer, jumped by more than 1TWh on the year, more than
offsetting lower nuclear and hydro output. This allowed Finland to net export
around 150GWh of power, having net imported nearly 300GWh in October 2023,
according to Fraunhofer data. Prices on the regional GET Baltic exchange
averaged €41.74/MWh in October, up by 3pc on the month but 18pc down on the
year. The price on the exchange "increasingly correlates with" the TTF, a
correlation that will likely strengthen as GET Baltic trading migrates to the
larger EEX platform next year , chief executive Giedre Kurme said. This
transition will "create opportunities for competition, more liquid trading and
price convergence", and "we are already seeing increased interest from
international participants in the Baltic-Finland region", Kurme said. Firms
traded 708GWh on the exchange in October, the most for any month since February,
and all transactions were on the daily market. The joint Latvian-Estonian market
accounted for 43pc of total trades, followed by Lithuania at 31pc and Finland at
26pc, GET Baltic said. Maintenance continues to limit Finnish LNG sendout
Extensive maintenance on the Balticconnector pipeline this month, which makes
all southbound capacity from Finland towards Estonia unavailable, continues to
limit sendout from Finland's Inkoo LNG terminal. After maintenance on the 14-27
October gas days took exit capacity towards Estonia fully off line, this
capacity is again unavailable because of further maintenance on 4-17 November.
Without southward pipeline capacity, sendout from Inkoo must fall to levels that
only the domestic market can absorb. Inkoo received the 145,000m³ Arctic
Princess just before the maintenance started on 3 November, and the next
scheduled delivery is not until 28 November ( see LNG data and download ).
Sendout is likely to remain low even after the end of maintenance so as not to
fully deplete stocks before the next arrival. Sendout from Inkoo averaged 23
GWh/d on 4-11 November. In contrast, sendout from Lithuania's Klaipeda terminal
has jumped to 104 GWh/d this month, helping to plug the Baltic supply gap left
by no southward inflows from Finland. Sendout from Klaipeda has been higher this
month than the 85 GWh/d in October and 80 GWh/d on 1-11 October last year.
Klaipeda has already received two cargoes this month, on 4 and 12 November, and
will receive a further two on 21 and 29 November, the terminal's schedule shows.
This suggests that sendout is likely to remain brisk for the rest of this month,
helping to meet higher regional demand as the weather turns colder and limits
the need for strong withdrawals from storage early in the winter season. By
Brendan A'Hearn FinBalt gas consumption by country GWh Gas-fired power
generation by country GWh Send comments and request more information at
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