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White House moves to aid struggling supply chains

  • Market: Agriculture, Biofuels, Chemicals, Coal, Crude oil, Fertilizers, Metals, Oil products, Petrochemicals, Petroleum coke
  • 25/02/22

The White House has issued new steps toward revitalizing strained supply chains, including adding resilience to freight networks and manufacturing operations.

"Outdated infrastructure and the Covid-19 pandemic have strained the capacity of the entire goods movement supply chain, resulting in unprecedented snarls in global freight and logistics supply chains," the White House said yesterday as it laid out a number of steps to build long-term resilience to supply chain networks.

Among the measures, the US Department of Transportation (DOT) has created a $450mn grant program focused on US ports. Money will go towards making infrastructure upgrades, constructing new berths, restoring docks and extending rail lines. The money was authorized under the bipartisan infrastructure law, signed into law last November.

DOT is also continuing its efforts at recruiting more truck drivers and improving the quality of existing jobs to help offset the sector's low retention rate. DOT is working with the Labor Department to develop a pilot training program for truck drivers between the ages of 18-21.

Even before expected supply chain problems that are likely to result from this week's Russian invasion of Ukraine, the White House had been working to resolve transportation delays.

The White House since early last year has been targeting the situation, prompted by snarled supply chains as producers have been unable to keep up with rebounding demand in the wake of the initial Covid-19-induced slump.

The White House in June 2021 identified a number of weaknesses in the supply chain, including insufficient US manufacturing capacity; misaligned incentives in private markets; industrial policies adopted by other nations; geographic concentration in global sourcing; and limited international coordination.

Energy focus

Also in the latest package of measures, the Department of Energy (DOE) is taking a number of steps to strengthen supply chains with a focus on domestic production of energy products.

Demand for products such as wind turbines and batteries for electric vehicles has increased, and the US, without new domestic raw materials production and added manufacturing capacity, is vulnerable to imports, DOE said.

DOE is moving forward with the creation of four regional clean energy hydrogen hubs, funded by $8bn in last year's infrastructure law. The department has issued requests for information that it will use to guide development.

DOE is also releasing $44mn to its Mining Innovations for Negative Emissions Resource Recovery program, which is aimed at developing a net-zero method of increasing domestic supplies of critical elements needed for clean energy projects, including copper, nickel, lithium, cobalt and rare earth elements.

A new manufacturing and energy supply chains office is being established within DOE, focusing on strengthening and securing the flow of materials needed to support development of clean energy infrastructure.

Other federal supply chain efforts will focus on boosting exports of goods made in the US. The Export-Import Bank will consider prioritizing access to capital for "environmentally beneficial" small businesses as well as companies exporting renewable energy and energy storage products, semiconductors, biotechnology and biomedical products.

The White House Office of Management and Budget will soon issue a new Buy American rule aimed at creating a steady source of demand for domestically produced critical goods. The rule will establish a new category of critical products that will be eligible for enhanced price preferences. The White House did not identify those products.

And to address global supply chain resilience, the White House later this year will host a ministerial-level summit on global supply chain resilience. The US, Mexico and Canada will also meet this summer to explore opportunities to improve the North American supply chain.

Latest concerns

The latest measures have raised some concerns. A White House report on its efforts to resolve supply chain problems raises "concerns that powerful special interests are coopting logistics challenges created by the pandemic to obtain below-market rates and pad their own profit lines," the Association of American Railroads (AAR) said.

The group warned that recommendations of some new and revised regulations are "at direct odds" with the goal of increasing freight fluidity and would divert freight away from railroads.

AAR is concerned a proposal to allow reciprocal switching that is under review by the Surface Transportation Board (STB) "would create inefficiencies, inhibit investment and, in turn, make rail transportation less competitive."

President Joe Biden last year signed an executive order urging federal rail and seaborne shipping regulators to increase industry competition and urged STB to act on its long-standing switching proposal.

Enduring issues

Shippers have complained for more than a year about the inability of freight transporters to meet the surge in demand. Coal shippers, in the midst of a rare increase in demand for the industry, have tried to put more trains into service but say railroads have refused.

The drivers of these problems are myriad, but intermodal congestion is getting much of the attention. Storage of containers at coastal ports rose sharply last year amid rising imports, though numbers have dropped because of industry efforts to resolve the situation.

Federal efforts to resolve issues have so far included intervening directly with major US ports to speed the delivery of containers, a large part of transportation congestion.


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18/12/24

Viewpoint: More US met coal consolidation ahead

Viewpoint: More US met coal consolidation ahead

London, 18 December (Argus) — Expectations that weak seaborne coking coal prices in the last quarter of 2024 will carry over to 2025 in the face of low steel prices is pointing to further consolidation among US coking coal producers. Consol Energy and Arch Resources set up the most significant merger of 2024 for the US market , with the merged company expected to generate $110mn-140mn of cost savings and "operational synergies" within 6-18 months of the close of the transaction. But continuing cost pressures will likely lead to closures of smaller high-cost mines, not uncommon in the past when US coking coal prices have reached a down cycle. The fob Australia premium low volatile (PLV) coking coal price fell from this summer's high of $260/t in early July to average $203.46/t from the start of October, translating to prices that are below cost for many US producers. In recent years, price volatility and lack of liquidity, particularly in the Atlantic market, has meant many buyers have chosen to buy at index-linked prices, often with fob Australia indexes. The fob US east coast price has averaged $192.84/t for the current quarter, while the high volatile A fob Hampton Road price has averaged $186.47/t in the same period, prices cited by many US producers at near or even below cost after taking into consideration rail and port handling charges. Lower cost longwall miners like Alpha Met Resources reported an average sale cost of $114.27/short ton ($125.96/t) in the third quarter for metallurgical coal, Arch Resources reported $93.81/st for the same and Warrior Met Coal indicated $120.21/st. But others such as Corsa are in clear loss-making territory at $169/st. After freight and handling charges, many of these producers will have fob equivalent costs closer to $170-190/t or even above $200/t for smaller continuous mining operations. The poor margins has also meant US producers like Ramaco have cut back their guidance while lost output capacity has failed to lift prices . Last month, many US producers have already looked to reduce shifts by extending time off for the holidays and hunting season. But this has still failed to stem supplies, particularly in the high volatile coal segment where traders and suppliers that had secured tonnes earlier this year or more recently via term contracts have been offering prices at steep discounts for on-water cargoes to Asia and port stocks in China. US producers have been focusing their efforts on sales to Asia in the face of weak demand in Europe, leading to the absence of much incremental coking coal demand in the region since last year. In a time of high fob Australia prices, margins for US sales to Asia might have been attractive. But with low Australian prices and competition from Russia and Mongolia continuing to grow, the second half of 2024 has seen poor margins for US sales to Asia. While Russian mining costs have risen, they are still well under the levels in the US. Industry sources peg average production cost for open-pit mining in the Kuzbass region at $18.37-35.75/t, excluding value-added tax (VAT), while underground mining stands at $24.83-60.58/t, excluding VAT, according to sources at Russian coal mining companies. Russian coal is also typically discounted to account for sanctions and difficulties with payments, and more recently the export duty on Russian coking coal was removed. US president-elect Donald Trump's threat to impose import tariffs on all imports from China has drawn concern in the market about China imposing retaliatory tariffs on US coal. In a well-supplied market and the presence of strong competing producing countries at key import destinations, many US producers expect they will have to absorb any increase in tariff to secure sales to China. At a recent industry conference in Prague, several participants indicated the fob Australia PLV index should be in the region of $220-225/t to be sustainable for the wider industry. By Siew Hua Seah Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Viewpoint: Japan to continue filling bulk scrap demand


18/12/24
News
18/12/24

Viewpoint: Japan to continue filling bulk scrap demand

Shanghai, 18 December (Argus) — Asian steel scrap buyers will probably remain risk-averse next year and continue to focus on purchasing Japanese scrap in small bulk cargoes over US scrap on large vessels. Japanese scrap, which has a shorter lead time and more flexible shipment sizes, is often considered by Asian buyers to be lower risk compared with US scrap, which has a longer delivery period and less wiggle room in parcel sizes, particularly when steel and scrap demand is weak. South Korean scrap imports fell by 44pc year on year to 1.83mn t in the first 10 months of 2024, but Japanese scrap's market share increased to 72pc from 70pc the previous year. Vietnamese buyers, which have been largely absent from the US scrap export market for over a year, imported 2mn t of Japanese scrap in January-October, rising by 63pc on the year and accounting for 44pc of Vietnam's total imports. The Philippines, once a net exporter of ferrous scrap, has imported more scrap in recent years, with Japan supplying 92pc of its scrap imports during the first three quarters of 2024. The growing steelmaking capacity and infrastructure investments in southeast Asia will further drive demand for Japanese scrap in the region in the coming years. Japanese scrap suppliers may also have greater appetite to sell to overseas markets in the coming year because lower domestic scrap demand in the country and the weaker yen against the US dollar have widened the price spread between domestic and exported scrap. The spread between Vietnam imported scrap prices and Japan domestic collection prices increased to $77/t on 6 December from around $53/t on 5 January after Tokyo Steel — the domestic scrap price setter in Japan — made multiple price cuts of more than ¥10,000/t ($66/t) since July, while prices for HMS 1/2 80:20 cfr Vietnam have dropped by only around $40/t. Japan's leading steel mills plan to transit more production from blast furnaces to electric arc furnaces, which may increase domestic scrap demand after 2027. But in the short term, prices are still expected to remain largely dependent on conditions in the wider ferrous market. Japanese crude steel production in the first 10 months of 2024 totalled 70.2mn t, down by 3.7pc year on year. Major steelmakers in Japan have cut their production forecasts for the 2024-25 fiscal year, citing a weaker domestic market. Demand for building materials is expected to decline further owing to rising construction costs and persistent labour shortages. Japanese steel imports rose by 10pc year on year to 2.8mn t in April-September, the highest since 2014, according to the finance ministry. Many Japanese mills fear that rising imports could further pressure the domestic steel market in 2025 if there is no government intervention. With the Japanese ferrous market expected to remain clouded by lower domestic steel production and higher steel imports, any excess scrap supply will be sold in the export market to reduce sales pressure in the domestic market. Japanese scrap exporters are facing challenges such as volatile exchange rates and vessel shortages, which have limited their export appetite in the past few months. Freight rates for scrap cargoes from Japan have increased by over $10/t since October and led to lower offers from Japanese suppliers and a wider bid-offer spread in the last quarter of 2024. But traders anticipate that this bottleneck will gradually ease in early 2025. Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Viewpoint: EU PVC margins to hold below average in 2025


18/12/24
News
18/12/24

Viewpoint: EU PVC margins to hold below average in 2025

London, 18 December (Argus) — European polyvinyl chloride (PVC) margins are likely to remain subdued in 2025, with a repeat of the sluggish demand and rising ethylene costs seen in 2024. Weakening European PVC consumption throughout 2024 was mainly underpinned by lower construction activity, a key demand driver. Construction purchasing managers index (PMI) data, compiled by S&P Global and Hamburg Commercial Bank (HCOB), show the eurozone construction PMI for 2024 peaked in October at 43.0, still way below the 50 mark that separates contraction and expansion. PVC market participants are cautiously optimistic that recent declines in interest rates from the European Central Bank (ECB) may help stimulate demand for home-builds in 2025, and improved PVC demand will follow. The ECB reduced rates three times in 2024, to 3.25pc. Rates may continue to ease in the short term, but as witnessed in 2024 this would take time to filter through to European PVC demand. Because of this, buyers are contemplating either maintaining or reducing contractual PVC volume commitments for 2025, noting struggles with passing raw material costs to customers. Anti-dumping duties (ADDs) on s-PVC imports from the US and Egypt helped to reduce excess supply in 2024, and while this is likely to continue into 2025 there is limited interest from buyers to source additional supply because of lower demand. Asian s-PVC imports remained minimal, with volatility in freight costs and longer lead times likely to suppress buying interest into 2025. Re-balancing act Domestic PVC producers focused on reducing inventories and operating rates for much of 2024 to keep the market balanced, with average operating rates between 60-70pc for s-PVC production and at the higher end of the range for specialty grades. But re-balancing proved to be a slow process in light of weakening demand, forcing European producers to keep operating rates and margins low for much of the year. Argus calculated s-PVC net production margins, based on feedstock ethylene costs in northwest Europe, averaged around €287.04/t between January-November 2024, lower by €109.04/t than during the same period in 2023 and around €73.40/t lower than the Argus 2015-23 average. Easing electricity costs in 2024 helped to suppress further PVC margin loss, but demand weakness throughout the year remained in favour of buyers as contract prices settled predominantly below the implied ethylene cost. With European ethylene prices likely to increase and PVC demand expectations suppressed throughout 2025, there could be another year of below-average margins for PVC producers. Argus assessed the December suspension PVC (s-PVC) preliminary contract marker for northwest Europe at €1,120/t on 20 December, reflective of a preliminary contract delta for December at minus €5/t. This is comparable to an ethylene monthly contract price (MCP) movement of minus €7.50/t for December. This raises the possibility of further supply consolidation in Europe to re-balance the market in the medium term, with smaller producers announcing potential closure of PVC production units in central and eastern Europe in 2025. Others plan to mothball some specialty PVC production lines, while others are seeking import licenses to supply PVC into emerging markets such as India. This is difficult to achieve because of cost-competitiveness. A rise in regional construction activity, and therefore PVC demand, will remain the quickest way to re-balance the market, helping to raise operating rates and margins back to above-average levels as buyers commit to more contractual volumes. By George Barsted and Michael Vitiello Integrated s-PVC NWE net margins €/t Eurozone construction PMI Index Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Viewpoint: Japan eyes methanol as marine bridging fuel


18/12/24
News
18/12/24

Viewpoint: Japan eyes methanol as marine bridging fuel

Tokyo, 18 December (Argus) — Japanese demand for methanol as an alternative marine fuel is expected to increase, especially after 2027, but it is likely it will mainly be used as a transition fuel before the commercial launch of ammonia- and hydrogen-fuelled vessels. The Japanese shipping industry is expected to launch more methanol-fuelled vessels from 2027 ( see table ), to help reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from the global maritime sector. Global regulatory body the International Maritime Organization (IMO) in 2023 pledged to achieve net zero emissions in international waters by or around 2050. To help achieve the IMO's target, a total of 26 methanol-powered vessels are expected to be commissioned worldwide by the end of this year, followed by 54 ships in 2025 and 96 carriers in 2026, according to a report released in November by Japanese classification society ClassNK. This would increase global methanol demand to 4.5mn t/yr by 2026, said the report. As of June, there are 33 methanol-fuelled vessels currently in use. Methanol-fuelled vessels can refuel at around 130 major ports all over the world, except in Japan, according to Japanese shipowner Mitsui OSK Lines (Mol). The city of Yokohama in the eastern prefecture of Kanagawa, in co-operation with Mitsubishi Gas Chemical (MGC) and Maersk, launched a study on methanol and green methanol bunkering in the port of Yokohama in December 2023. Since then, the group, in collaboration with new partners — Japanese refiner Idemitsu, MGC's shipping subsidiary Kokuka Sangyo, domestic shipping firm Uyeno Transtech and Yokohama Kawasaki international port — has conducted a ship-to-ship bunkering simulation at the port of Yokohama in September. Expectations of the increase in methanol use, especially cleaner e-methanol, have led Japanese firms to become more involved in upstream projects to secure the fuel. Japanese firms have invested in more than 10 e-methanol production projects both in and outside of Japan ( see table ), with the number of projects likely to increase, according to the ministry of economy, trade and industry. Japanese firms are developing new carriers, but at the same time are also trying to modify existing vessels — which currently use fuel oil, LNG, LPG and methanol — to be able to burn renewable fuels such as biofuels, e-methane and e-methanol. It would be easy to increase the number of methanol-fuelled ships, given their relatively low initial or modification costs compared with LNG-fed vessels, according to Mol. Methanol is also a stable liquid at room temperature and atmosphere pressure, making it easy to transport and store compared to other alternative fuels, Mol added. Fellow shipping company Nippon Yusen Kaisha (NYK line) is also mulling the development of smaller methanol-fuelled handymax ships that are unable to be equipped with large ammonia fuel tanks, to aid with decarbonisation. Methanol a temporary solution But Japanese firms see methanol mostly as a "bridging fuel" rather than a zero-emission fuel, as methanol can reduce GHG emissions only by 15pc compared to traditional bunker fuel, although it can curb sulphur oxide and nitrogen oxide emissions by up to 99pc and 80pc, respectively. It would be vital to begin introducing much cleaner marine fuels, such as ammonia and hydrogen, to meet the maritime sector's net-zero goal. Tokyo is trying to promote the development of ammonia and hydrogen-fuelled ships by providing financial support, while the utilisation of such clean vessels could materialise from around 2030, the ministry of land, infrastructure, transport and tourism (Mlit) said. Japan's state-owned research institute Nedo plans to provide ¥35bn ($229mn) to support the development of engines, fuel tanks, fuel supply systems and other core technologies for zero-emission ships that use hydrogen and ammonia, as well as LNG and e-methane, under its ¥2.76 trillion green innovation fund. But the grants are much larger than those for the development of methanol-fuelled ships, which are currently available only from Mlit and the environment ministry, with the amount of ¥100mn per vessel over two to three years. The scheme has been open for application every year since 2023. But the ministries' scheme also targets LNG-fuelled ships, with a breakdown of allotment for methanol-powered vessels unclear. By Reina Maeda and Nanami Oki Japanese firms' methanol projects Methanol-fuelled ships Company # of vessel Type Target commercialisation Announcement Mitsubishi Gas Chemical, Mitsui OSK Line 1 Ocean-going methanol carrier Jul-05 May-23 Toyofuji Shipping, Mitsubishi Heavy Industries 2 Ro-Ro vessel 2027-28 fiscal year Jun-24 Mitsui OSK Line 1 Coastal methanol carrier Dec-24 Jul-24 NS United Kaiun, Nihon Shipyard, Jaman Marine United, Imabari Shipbuilding Multiple Bulk carrier After 2027-28 fiscal year May-24 Orix, Tsuneishi Shipbuilding 2 Bulk carrier Jul-24 Production Company Product Country Target commercialisation Target capacity (t/yr) Mitsui E-methanol US Jan-24 1630000 Mitsubishi Gas Chemical Bio-methanol Japan Jun-24 Small amount Mitsubishi Gas Chemical, Kobelco E-methanol Japan NA NA Cosmo, Toyo Engineering E-methanol Japan NA NA Sumitomo Chemical E-methanol Japan 2030s NA Mitsui, Asahi Kasei Bio-methanol US Jun-23 NA Toyo Engineering E-methanol India 2030 NA Investment Company Product Country Target commercialisation Target capacity (t/yr) Mitsui E-methanol Denmark NA 42,000 Idemitsu E-methanol Brazil, US, Chile, Uruguay, Australia 2,030 4,000,000 JOGMEC E-methanol Brazil, US, Chile, Uruguay, Australia 2,030 4,000,000 Mitsu OSK Line E-methanol Brazil, US, Chile, Uruguay, Australia 2,030 4,000,000 Table source: Firm's company releases Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Australia's BHP, Rio Tinto in electric smelter tie-up


18/12/24
News
18/12/24

Australia's BHP, Rio Tinto in electric smelter tie-up

Sydney, 18 December (Argus) — The Australian NeoSmelt resource consortium will build a major pilot electric iron smelter in Kwinana, Western Australia, supporting a broader push towards low-emissions steel. The consortium is led by the country's largest iron miners, BHP and Rio Tinto and steel producer BlueScope. Western Australia's government has agreed to support the project through a A$75mn ($47.5mn) investment, it said on 17 December. NeoSmelt expects the site to produce between 30,000-40,000t of molten iron at the site once it is operational by 2028. The site will use natural gas to process ore. The group will also look at moving towards hydrogen-based production processes over time. But the NeoSmelt development is still at an early stage. The consortium will make a final investment decision on the plant sometime in 2026. Other firms are also currently working on low-carbon smelting projects in the state. Global mineral firm Fortescue plans to house an electric furnace at its green iron plant at its Christmas Creek mine. The company hopes to produce 1,500t/yr of iron at the facility, beginning in 2025. Another younger metals firm Green Steel of WA (GSWA) is developing a similar smelter in the state's Mid-West region. GSWA is scheduled to start producing 2.5mn t/yr of iron at the plant, using natural gas and hydrogen, in 2028. The company will make a final decision on the project next year. The recent push towards green steel production comes after federal government initiatives designed to support sustainable production across the country. The Australian government announced in its most recent budget that it will focus on supporting aluminium and steel decarbonisation efforts over the next decade. By Avinash Govind Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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