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Crude Summit: Venezuela oil unlikely to compete

  • Market: Crude oil
  • 17/02/23

Colombian and Brazilian crudes are unlikely to face competition from rising Venezuelan crude volumes in international markets, even if US sanctions continue to ease, according to key Latin American producers.

In Asia-Pacific — a top destination for crude from all three countries — independent refiners are facing a shortfall of Venezuelan heavy sour crude following Venezuelan state-owned PdV's blanket order to suspend all contracts. Chinese demand for March and April has already picked up for Colombia's heavy sour Castilla Blend, an ample and high quality substitute, Ecopetrol vice president Pedro Manrique said today at the Argus Americas Crude Summit in Houston, Texas.

Another demand center for heavy sour grades is Europe, where Spain's Repsol and Italy's Eni restarted a crude-for-debt deal with PdV in December.

But in both regions, Colombian grades are unlikely to see significant challenges from Venezuelan grades because of the decades-long neglect to infrastructure in Venezuela and unstable quality of the crude, according to Manrique.

"Those [Venezuelan] barrels are going to be limited because of the infrastructure that is in place today and the condition," Manrique said. "We don't expect that the quality is going to be stable quality. There's going to be a lot of volatility quality-wise."

State-owned Ecopetrol has crude production in over 350 Colombian onshore fields and operates a large crude pipeline system. In order to stabilize the quality of its flagship heavy sour Castilla crude, it brings components to blend with the grade and the blended proportion is consistent for every cargo that is exported, Manrique said.

Brazilian grades meanwhile, which are mostly light-to-medium sweet, are not similar in quality to Venezuela's heavy sour crudes, leaving ample appetite for sweets in Asia-Pacific and Europe, said Petrobras' executive manager of global trading Alipio Ferreira.

"Our sweet crude is very well accepted in Europe and Asia and we expect Asia to more demanding." Ferreira said.

Even if Venezuela can rebuild the oil industry's infrastructure, it will need to recruit new talent into the oil sector and that will take time.

"It might help if they allow some of the majors to go back and work with them so that they can start to bring in people to the country," Manrique said.


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06/07/24

Reformist Pezeshkian to be Iran’s next president

Reformist Pezeshkian to be Iran’s next president

Dubai, 6 July (Argus) — Masoud Pezeshkian, the sole reformist candidate approved to run in this year's presidential election, was confirmed as the Iran's next head of state after coming out on top in Friday's second-round run-off. A health minister under former president Mohammad Khatami, Pezeshkian secured nearly 16.4mn votes, or around 54pc of the total 30.5mn votes cast, according to results issued by the interior ministry early on Saturday. His rival, the ultraconservative former nuclear negotiator, Saeed Jalili, got 13.5mn votes. Pezeshkian and Jalili faced off after none of the four candidates contesting the election managed to secure the 50pc of the vote needed to win outright one week prior. Pezeshkian came out on top in that first round with 42pc of the vote, while Jalili came in a close second with 39pc. Iran's current parliamentary speaker, conservative Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf, who was contesting his fourth presidential election, came in at a distant third with 14pc of the vote, while former cabinet minister, Mostafa Pourmohammadi, also a conservative, secured less than 1pc. Coming at a time of growing apathy among Iranians, evidenced by the historically low participation in recent presidential and parliamentary elections, turnout became a major focus ahead of the election. Turnout in the previous presidential election in 2021 was just under 49pc, down from 73pc in 2017, while turnout in parliamentary elections in March was just 42pc. The 49pc turnout in 2021 was the lowest for a presidential election since the inception of the Islamic Republic. And yet, despite the surprise inclusion of a reformist to contest this year's election, turnout in the first round plummeted further to reach a new low of 39.8pc, in the clearest sign yet that large swaths of the Iranian electorate have lost faith in the Islamic Republic and feel there is little value to voting. This was despite a call from the supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, just days prior, for people to come out in force to participate in the election. A different way Ahead of the run-off, many put Pezeshkian's chances of victory down to his ability to galvanize and encourage at least some of those that initially chose not to participate, to turn out to vote. And to an extent, the numbers suggest that his efforts did not go unrewarded, with the turnout in the second round rising to 49.8pc, which, although still low, and only marginally above the 2021 turnout, represented a significant increase over the first round. In Pezeshkian, Iran is now poised to have its first reformist president for almost two decades. And with the country facing myriad external and internal challenges — from regional security to an economy ravaged by years of harsh economic sanctions reimposed by the US in 2018 — he will have his work cut out for him. And although in Iran the supreme leader, not the president, dictates policy and has the final say, Pezeshkian will still have an important role to play in determining how that policy is ultimately implemented. In his many interviews and debates on the campaign trail, Pezeshkian underlined the need for a change of tack on a range of domestic and external issues, from the role of the morality police, the unity of Iran's law enforcement tasked with enforcing mandatory rules on the dress code, to Iran's engagement with the west to lift the sanctions that have devastated Iran's economy. Pezeshkian, crucially, has signalled he will revive efforts to return to the 2015 nuclear deal that was brokered between Iran and world powers, including the US, with a view to lifting sanctions. His opponent, Jalili, appeared diametrically opposed to reviving talks, arguing that Iran's strengthened relations with its allies to the east, China and Russia, were serving Iran's interests more than the nuclear deal ever did. Iran has not yet set a concrete date for Pezeshkian's inauguration, but Alireza Salimi, a member of parliament, told state media today that it would be held before the end of the first half of the next Iranian month, Mordad, which would correspond with 5 August. By Nader Itayim Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Beryl enters GOM, heading towards Texas: Update


05/07/24
News
05/07/24

Beryl enters GOM, heading towards Texas: Update

Updates hurricane watch and status of Texas ports and lightering zones. New York, 5 July (Argus) — Hurricane Beryl weakened to a tropical storm as it crossed the Yucatan Peninsula and entered the Gulf of Mexico on Friday afternoon, with a likely second landfall in Texas on Monday. Maximum sustained winds have dropped to near 65mph, the National Hurricane Center said in a 5pm ET advisory, but the tropical storm is forecast to strengthen to a hurricane again as it moves over the Gulf of Mexico, with forecasts pointing to a landfall late Sunday or early Monday from far northeastern Mexico to the eastern Texas coast. The National Hurricane Center issued a hurricane watch from the mouth of the Rio Grande River to Sargent, Texas, about 80 miles southwest of Houston. Heavy rainfall of 4-8 inches is expected by Sunday into next week. The US Coast Guard changed the status of the port of Corpus Christi, Texas — a key US oil export hub — to "X-ray" at 3pm ET Friday, meaning gale force winds are expected to arrive at the port within 48 hours. All commercial traffic and transfer operations can continue during X-ray, but the Coast Guard said ocean-going commercial vessels greater than 500 gross tons should make plans to depart the port. Corpus Christi is also home to three refineries totaling 800,000 b/d of capacity. Citgo said it is implementing its hurricane preparedness plan at its 165,000 b/d refinery there. The ports of Houston, Texas City, Galveston and Freeport were set to port condition Whiskey at 5:05pm ET Friday, meaning gale force winds are expected to arrive within 72 hours. The ports remain open to all commercial traffic. Ship-to-ship transfers off the Texas coast proceeded as normal on Friday but will be postponed off Corpus Christi beginning Sunday. The US National Weather Service (NWS) forecast winds up to 90mph and waves up to 32 ft at the Corpus Christi lightering area on Sunday and Monday before calmer conditions return Tuesday. Ship-to-ship transfers are expected to be postponed at the Galveston Offshore Lightering Area early next week due to the same conditions. Most of Mexico's Gulf coast ports were closed today and many offshore oil production operations. The impact to US Gulf oil and gas operations so far appears to be limited, with BP determining forecasts "indicate Hurricane Beryl no longer poses a significant threat" to its offshore platforms in the Gulf of Mexico. Shell had taken the precaution of shutting in production and evacuating all staff from its Perdido platform and its Whale development, which is scheduled to begin operations later this year. "We have safely paused some of our drilling operations, but there are currently no other impacts on our production across the Gulf of Mexico," the company said late on Thursday. Earlier this week, Beryl was a Category 5 storm, which made it the strongest on record for the month of July, as it left a trail of destruction in the Caribbean. By Stephen Cunningham, Tray Swanson and Nathan Risser Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Hurricane Beryl threat to US offshore oil lower


05/07/24
News
05/07/24

Hurricane Beryl threat to US offshore oil lower

Calgary, 5 July (Argus) — A northward shift in forecasts for Hurricane Beryl could bring the storm to the mid-Texas coast early next week, but its threat to US Gulf of Mexico oil and gas production appears limited. US Gulf oil and gas operators evacuated non-essential workers from some offshore facilities earlier in the week as a precaution. But on Thursday those concerns appeared to lessen, with BP saying the storm "... no longer poses a significant threat to our Gulf of Mexico assets". Beryl had weakened to a Category 2 hurricane, according to a 5pm ET advisory from the National Hurricane Center (NHC), with maximum sustained winds of 110 mph. The storm is expected to reach the Yucatan Peninsula in Mexico by early Friday, bringing heavy rain, hurricane-force winds and storm surge. Beryl will likely weaken to tropical storm status as it passes over the Yucatan but regain hurricane status when it enters the Gulf of Mexico late Friday-early Saturday. Current forecasts have it turning northwest to make landfall again somewhere between the northeastern coast of Mexico and the mid-Texas coast on Sunday. The US Coast Guard changed the status of the port of Corpus Christi, Texas, -- a key US oil export hub -- to "whiskey" on Thursday, meaning gale force winds are expected to arrive at the port within 72 hours. The port remains open to all commercial traffic. Earlier in the week Beryl was a Category 5 storm, which made it the strongest on record for the month of July. It was a Category 4 storm on Wednesday with maximum sustained winds of 140 mph as it brushed past the southern coast of Jamaica. By Brett Holmes Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Saudi Aramco cuts official August crude prices for Asia


04/07/24
News
04/07/24

Saudi Aramco cuts official August crude prices for Asia

London, 4 July (Argus) — Saudi Arabia's state-controlled Saudi Aramco has reduced the official formula prices of August-loading crude exports for buyers in its core Asia-Pacific market, while increasing prices for European customers. For customers in Asia-Pacific, Aramco has cut the August formula prices of its Arab Light and Extra Light grades by 60¢/bl compared with July and reduced the prices of its other grades by 20-70¢/bl. The price cuts for Asia-Pacific are within customers' expectations. Refiners in the region expected a narrower Dubai backwardation to prompt a reduction in Saudi formula prices . The month-on-month change in Dubai intermonth spreads is one factor that producers such as Aramco consider when setting the formula prices for their Asia-bound cargoes. For customers in northwest Europe, Aramco has raised the official August prices of its Extra Light, Arab Light, Arab Medium and Arab Heavy grades by 90¢/bl. For Mediterranean-bound exports of the same grades, it increased prices by 90¢/bl on a fob Ras Tanura basis and by 80¢/bl a fob Sidi Kerir basis. European refiners were anticipating an increase in Saudi formula prices on the back of firm values for rival crudes and tighter global supply. The North Sea's largest crude grade, Norway's medium sour Johan Sverdrup, averaged $1.60/bl above the North Sea Dated benchmark fob Mongstad in June, up from a $0.29/bl premium in May. Values of heavier grades in Europe have recently begun to improve. The Argus Brent Sour Index, which prices northwest Europe's heavier and sourer crudes, has averaged a 35¢/bl premium to Dated so far this week. The index averaged 10¢/bl above Dated in June and 7¢/bl below the benchmark in May. Aramco is expected to export less crude in the summer months when domestic demand peaks. Saudi Arabia announced in early June that it will extend a 1mn b/d "voluntary" additional crude output cut — first implemented in July 2023 — for three months until the end of September. For customers in the US, Aramco has lifted the August formula prices of Extra Light and Arab Light by 10¢/bl compared with July. It has left formula prices of the other grades unchanged. By Edmundo Alfaro and Lina Bulyk Saudi Aramco official formula prices $/bl August July ± United States (vs ASCI) Extra Light 7.10 7.00 0.10 Arab Light 4.85 4.75 0.10 Arab Medium 5.45 5.45 0.00 Arab Heavy 5.10 5.10 0.00 Northwest Europe (vs Ice Brent) Extra Light 5.60 4.70 0.90 Arab Light 4.00 3.10 0.90 Arab Medium 3.20 2.30 0.90 Arab Heavy 0.80 -0.10 0.90 Asia-Pacific (vs Oman/Dubai) Super Light 2.75 2.95 -0.20 Extra Light 1.60 2.20 -0.60 Arab Light 1.80 2.40 -0.60 Arab Medium 1.25 1.95 -0.70 Arab Heavy 0.50 1.20 -0.70 Mediterranean fob Ras Tanura (vs Ice Brent) Extra Light 5.60 4.70 0.90 Arab Light 3.90 3.00 0.90 Arab Medium 3.30 2.40 0.90 Arab Heavy 0.60 -0.30 0.90 Mediterranean fob Sidi Kerir (vs Ice Brent) Extra Light 5.65 4.85 0.80 Arab Light 3.95 3.15 0.80 Arab Medium 3.35 2.55 0.80 Arab Heavy 0.65 -0.15 0.80 Source: Saudi Aramco Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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US services contract in June, signal broad weakening


03/07/24
News
03/07/24

US services contract in June, signal broad weakening

Houston, 3 July (Argus) — Economic activity in the US services sector contracted in June by the most since 2020 while a report earlier this week showed contraction in manufacturing, signaling a broad-based slowdown in the economy as the second quarter came to an end. The Institute for Supply Management's (ISM) services purchasing managers index (PMI) registered 48.8 in June, down from 53.8 in May. Readings above 50 signal expansion, while those below 50 signal contraction for the services economy. The June services PMI "indicates the overall economy is contracting for the first time in 17 months," ISM said. "The decrease in the composite index in June is a result of notably lower business activity, a contraction in new orders for the second time since May 2020 and continued contraction in employment." The business activity/production index fell to 49.6 from 61.2. New orders fell by 6.8 points to 47.3. Employment fell by 1 point to 46.1. Monthly PMI reports can be volatile, but a services PMI above 49 over time generally indicates an expansion of the overall economy. "Survey respondents report that in general, business is flat or lower, and although inflation is easing, some commodities have significantly higher costs," ISM said. The prices index fell by 1.8 points to 56.3, showing slowing but robust price gains. ISM's manufacturing PMI fell to 48.5 in June from 48.7 in May, ISM reported on 1 July. It was the third consecutive month of contraction and marked a 19th month of contraction in the past 20 months. Wednesday's weaker than expected ISM report, together with a Wednesday report showing initial jobless claims last week rose to their highest in two years, slightly increase the odds that the Federal Reserve may lower its target rate later this year after maintaining it at 23-year highs since last year in an effort to stem inflation. By Bob Willis Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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